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ADB SUPPORT FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC: LESSONS FROM THE PAST DECADE



20 Pages Posted: 5 Aug 2005

See all articles by Clay G. Wescott


CLAY G. WESCOTT

International Public Management Network; World Bank Independent Evaluation Group

Date Written: August 12, 2005


ABSTRACT

The paper analyzes three recent events that ADB has been closely involved in
responding to: the financial contagion in SE Asia in 1997, the SARS crisis of
2003, and the Tsunami of 2004. These three rather different types of events show
that a combination of factors have been at work in shaping the response to and
outcome of each crises.

The 1997 contagion was a wake-up call exposing existing vulnerabilities across
SE Asian economies: weak supervision and standards of companies and heavy
reliance on the banking system, unsustainable exchange rate policies and
inadequate supplies of foreign exchange reserves, to name a few. It forced
governments and international organizations to recognize the high level of
interdependence among countries in the region, and the need for putting in place
inter-governmental risk mitigating mechanisms like Chiang Mai Initiative,
ASEAN+3 surveillance, and Asia Bond Fund 1 and 2, launched by the Executives'
Meeting of East Asia Pacific Central Banks Initiative. However, even more
important in explaining the rapid recovery from the crisis has been the growing
importance of production sharing networks that source from wherever is most
advantageous and contribute to strengthening of international value added
chains. These private sector networks helped to increasingly link crisis
countries' economies with the booming People's Republic of China (PRC), and
facilitate their recovery much more rapidly than initially expected.

Although risk mitigating measures have been put in place and are being
strengthened, financial risks have not gone away. Questionable practices in
PRC's state-owned enterprises listed in Hong Kong or other external markets
could lead to trouble, a la Guangdong Enterprises or China Aviation Oil. PRC's
WTO commitment to open up in 2006 its financial sector to international
competition could put pressure on major domestic banks. New, retaliatory tariffs
could reduce US imports of PRC products. A combination of these and other
possible factors could lead to contagion effects that could cripple global
production sharing arrangements, and prompt another 1997 style financial crisis
in the region that would severely test the new risk mitigating measures.

As a second example of crisis management, SARS was initially allowed to spread
in 2002-3 because of a cover-up within the PRC health service. However, through
the actions of a courageous Chinese doctor, the government (fortuitously a new,
more open regime) opened up in April and started responding vigorously. Although
the disease spread fast and globally for a while, the forceful response of
national governments, combined with international agency supported travel
warnings and other coordinated actions, stopped the spread of the disease by
June. Hundreds of people died, but not the millions lost in other global
pandemics.

The response to the 2004 tsunami is still underway, and results are uncertain.
Yet three important dimensions are emerging. First, the importance of the rapid
response by affected governments, donor governments, and international
organizations in providing rapid relief (from US aircraft carriors of Aceh et
al) and fundraising for reconstruction. Second, the importance of formal and
informal networks linking these governments and organizations with NGOs and
private sector to provide a coordinated response. And third, the promise that a
Tsunami early warning system (high-tech hardware combined with low-tech
community awareness raising) can sharply reduce the death toll from such
catastrophic events in the future.



Keywords: crisis, banking, epidemic, tsunami, sars, contagion



Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Wescott, Clay G., Adb Support for Crisis Management in Asia-Pacific: Lessons
from the Past Decade (August 12, 2005). Available at SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/abstract=767264 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.767264


CLAY G. WESCOTT (CONTACT AUTHOR)

INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC MANAGEMENT NETWORK ( EMAIL )

7798 Mulberry Ln
naples, FL 34114
United States


HOME PAGE: http://ipmn.net

WORLD BANK INDEPENDENT EVALUATION GROUP ( EMAIL )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States



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46 REFERENCES

 1. Emerging Asia: Changes and Challenges
    ADB Posted: 1997
    
 2. Adb
    Governance in Asia: From Crisis to Opportunity
    Annual Report Posted: 1998
    
 3. Asia Development Outlook. Manila: ADB Posted: 2000
    Crossref
 4. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors on a
    Proposed Loan to Viet Nam for the Rural Health Project
    ADB Posted: 2000
    

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