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OXFORD ECONOMICS AFRICA

Africa Risk Reward Index 2021

Oxford Economics Africa and Control Risks’ Africa experts are pleased to present
the sixth edition of the Africa Risk-Reward Index. The index captures the
evolution of the investment environment and risk landscape in major African
markets.

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CORONAVIRUS: Q3’s GDP softness may be a blip...                 WORLD POST
COVID: Vaccination not the only remedy for African tourism recovery...         
      AFRICA RESEARCH HUB: Local government elections: What to expect in 2021...
Subscription Services

We publish a range of reports designed to directly address the information needs
of professional investors and senior business decision makers engaged in Africa
expansion. These reports span from up-to-the-minute alerts and weekly
newsletters on the continent to country-specific quarterly reports.



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Consulting Services

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political research on Africa. We regularly carry out custom research projects to
fit the precise needs of our clients.

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LATEST ANALYSIS


 * TALKING POINT: SOUTH AFRICA – RETAIL SALES MODERATE IN OCTOBER
   
   Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales dipped by 1.3% m-o-m in October,
   following a monthly increase of 5.1% in September. On an annual basis, retail
   trade sales increased by 1.8%, in line with consen...


 * TALKING POINT: SUDAN – INTERCOMMUNAL VIOLENCE IN DARFUR, NEARLY 50 DEAD
   
   At least 48 people were killed in the latest outbreak of intercommunal
   violence in Jebel Moon, West Darfur at the weekend. Violent clashes between
   Arab and ethnic African communities were sparked by a...


 * SA MONTHLY POLITICAL OVERVIEW: WOUNDED BUFFALO
   
   Following a chastening day at the polls on November 1, the African National
   Congress (ANC) suffered further humiliation when opposition parties teamed up
   to pick the mayors of Johannesburg, Tshwane an...


 * TALKING POINT: MAURITIUS – CPI INFLATION RISES ON THE BACK OF HIGHER FOOD
   PRICES
   
   After rising to 5.8% y-o-y in October, consumer price index (CPI) inflation
   climbed to 6.4% y-o-y in November. The largest contributors to the change in
   the CPI were the food & non-alcoholic beverages...


 * TALKING POINT: ZAMBIA – FISCAL AND POLICY OVERHAUL CRUCIAL TO CLINCH IMF DEAL
   
   On December 6, the IMF released more details on a potential arrangement worth
   $1.4bn under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, after announcing
   on December 3 that a staff-level agreement had...


 * INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SET TO OUTPACE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2022
   
   Key Features: Broad Country and Industry Coverage. The service covers
   consistent data, analysis, and forecasts of output and investment trends
   across 77 countries throughout Europe, Asia, the Americas...


 * AUTO INDUSTRY TO DRIVE MANUFACTURING OUTPUT IN 2022
   
   Key Features: Broad Country and Industry Coverage. The service covers
   consistent data, analysis, and forecasts of output and investment trends
   across 77 countries throughout Europe, Asia, the Americas...


 * TALKING POINT: SOUTH AFRICA – PARLIAMENT REJECTS CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT
   
   A bill to amend section 25 of the Constitution to allow for expropriation
   without compensation was defeated in the National Assembly (NA) on Tuesday,
   December 7. The final vote count was 204 in favour...


 * SA DAILY ECONOMIC REPORT: MORNING MARKET UPDATE
   
   Economy suffers a drubbing ZAR oscillated as traders digested the
   weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP print US trade deficit narrows sharply on robust
   export growth Chinese imports beat expectations


 * FIXED INCOME DAILY: BOND MARKET AND CURRENCY METRICS FOR AFRICAN CAPITAL
   MARKETS
   
   Zambia - On December 6, the IMF released more details on a potential
   arrangement worth $1.4bn under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme,
   having announced on December 3 that a staff-level agre...


 * DAILY AFRICA INSIGHT: AN OVERVIEW OF TODAY’S KEY EVENTS AND DEVELOPMENTS
   
   Malawi – Former MP leads more anti-government protests. South Africa –
   Economy suffers a drubbing in Q3. Uganda – Imports and exports volumes remain
   muted in October. West Africa – Barrow re-elected i...


 * TALKING POINT: MALAWI – FORMER MP LEADS MORE ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS
   
   On Friday, December 3, anti-government protestors led by former MP Bon
   Kalindo marched in the streets of Mzuzu. In November, Mr Kalindo had quit his
   position as MP and director for youth at the United...


 * TALKING POINT: SOUTH AFRICA – ECONOMY SUFFERS A DRUBBING IN Q3
   
   The South African economy came under strain in Q3, contracting by 1.5% on a
   quarterly basis, compared to the consensus for a 1.2% q-o-q contraction. Our
   forecast of -1.3% q-o-q was not far off the mar...


 * GROWTH TO BE DRIVEN BY THE MOTOR VEHICLES & PARTS SECTOR OVER THE COMING
   YEARS
   
   Key Features: Broad Country and Industry Coverage. The service covers
   consistent data, analysis, and forecasts of output and investment trends
   across 77 countries throughout Europe, Asia, the Americas...

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FEATURED AFRICAN ECONOMIC INSIGHTS

Gain unparalleled economic and political insight into 54 African economies.
Download up to three Research Briefings for free. Or, to get unlimited access to
Oxford Economics Africa's full database of briefings, commentary, daily
analysis, high-quality research and data, request an obligation-free trial
today.

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See all tweets


LATEST TWEETS

 * Bank of #Namibia keeps policy rate on par with South Africa’s repo rate at
   3.75% as Omicron muddies the inflation and growth outlooks.

 * .#SouthAfrica retail sales were a mixed bag in October.

 * Intercommunal violence between Arab tribes and ethnic African tribes in the
   Darfur region of #Sudan left nearly 50 people dead at the weekend. Suspected
   fighters of the former PDF, established under former dictator Omar Al Bashir,
   attacked the Krinding camp for displaced people.

 * .#CPI inflation in #Mauritius rose to 6.4% y-o-y in November, from 5.8% y-o-y
   in October. Monetary authorities now forecast headline inflation to average
   3.8% in 2021 – higher compared with their previous forecast of 3.5%.

 * .#Zambia’s commitment to an “ambitious economic reform programme” underpinned
   staff-level agreement, with comprehensive policy design and implementation
   overhaul expected to unlock IMF Executive Board approval of a three-year,
   funded programme.

 * An ANC-proposed amendment to #SouthAfrica's Constitution to allow for
   expropriation without compensation was defeated in Parliament on December 7.
   Support from the populist EFF was required, but disagreement over state
   custodianship meant the bill was doomed to fail.

 * Monthly Research Highlights | Our latest research updates covered in November
   include analysis on Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia, and Côte d'Ivoire.
   
   Click here to request more information: bit.ly/3rK257C
   
   
   AFRICA #ETHIOPIA #KENYA #ZAMBIA #CÔTEDIVOIRE

 * More anti-government protests were led by former MP Bon Kalindo on Friday in
   #Malawi. Demonstrators are calling on President Lazarus Chakwera's ruling
   Tonse Alliance to deliver on the campaign promises that won it the vote last
   year.




IN THE MEDIA

 * Dec 05 2021
   
   
   DAILY MAVERICK: SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY EXPECTED TO CONTRACT IN THIRD QUARTER,
   UNDERLINING DISMAL JOBLESS DATA

 * Dec 03 2021
   
   
   REUTERS: IMF, ZAMBIA REACH STAFF LEVEL AGREEMENT FOR $1.4 BLN SUPPORT PLAN

 * Dec 02 2021
   
   
   CNBC: SOUTH AFRICA CONSIDERS VACCINE MANDATES AS OMICRON CASES SPIRAL

 * Nov 30 2021
   
   
   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: UGANDA BEGINS STRIKES AGAINST ISLAMIST MILITANTS IN
   CONGO AFTER BOMBINGS

 * Nov 26 2021
   
   
   DAILY MAVERICK: RAND ROUT: CURRENCY CRACKS 13-MONTH LOW ABOVE 16/DLR ON NEW
   COVID VARIANT JITTERS

 * Nov 17 2021
   
   
   BLOOMBERG: AFRICA CENTRAL BANKS TO HOLD RATES WITH PRICE SPIKE SEEN LIMITED

 * Nov 16 2021
   
   
   BLOOMBERG: INVESTORS SEEK REASSURANCE ON DEBT FROM GHANA’S 2022 BUDGET

 * Nov 08 2021
   
   
   CNBC: ETHIOPIA BRACES FOR ALL-OUT WAR AS REBELS ADVANCE ON CAPITAL

 * Nov 04 2021
   
   
   CNBC: SUDAN’S COUP ATTEMPT FACES MASS CIVILIAN REVOLT: HERE’S WHAT COULD
   HAPPEN NEXT

 * Oct 31 2021
   
   
   THE NATIONAL: SUDAN’S HAMDOK 'TOO FOCUSED ON ECONOMY' AND PLAGUED BY
   INFIGHTING, EXPERTS SAY

 * Oct 28 2021
   
   
   REUTERS: SOUTH AFRICA'S ANC FACES TOUGH MUNICIPAL VOTE OVER POOR SERVICES

 * Oct 26 2021
   
   
   CNBC: SUDAN’S MILITARY HAS SEIZED POWER IN A COUP. HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO
   KNOW

Africa Economic Insight

Gain unparalleled economic and political insight into 54 African economies.
Download up to three Research Briefings for free. Or, to get unlimited access to
Oxford Economics Africa's full database of briefings, commentary, daily
analysis, high-quality research and data, request an obligation-free trial
today.

Download Research Briefings

Sample Country Report

Download a free sample report, highlighting our economic analysis, as well as
incorporating our political assessment for Nigeria in 2021.

Get the report

BESPOKE REPORT IN COLLABORATION WITH UNECA

Unemployment and underemployment remain pervasive across the continent, and
demographic trends suggest that the situation will deteriorate further if not
effectively addressed. In collaboration with UNECA, Oxford Economics Africa
examined 34 employment initiatives across 15 different countries, with the aim
that key lessons will inform policy recommendations across the continent.

Learn more

TAILORED ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Oxford Economics Africa has extensive experience in measuring economic
footprints and conducting policy impact assessments, with the latter often
necessitating sophisticated modelling expertise to map out digital economies,
measuring the impact of complex tax scenarios and assessing the impact of
shocks. We have also expanded our service offering, covering economic,
environmental, and social impacts across the value chain, on a consistent basis
and comparable with Sustainable Development Goals and Greenhouse Gas Protocol
metrics.

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