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Friday, 15 July 2022

Friday, 15 July 2022
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 * Finance >
 * Jean-Louis Nakamura: «China Probably the Only Bright Spot»

Jean-Louis Nakamura, Asia CIO, Lombard Odier
FINANCE Tuesday, 12 July 2022 11:57


JEAN-LOUIS NAKAMURA: «CHINA PROBABLY THE ONLY BRIGHT SPOT»

 * UBP: «Stocks Are Still Cyclically Expensive»
 * Julius Baer: «China Might Take a Little Bit More Time»



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An increasing number of banks are betting on more upside from Chinese equities,
including Lombard Odier which called A-shares «probably the only bright spot»
for the remainder of 2022.

Since bottoming in April this year, the CSI 300 Index has rebounded by around 14
percent despite continued worries about a domestic slowdown driven in part by
the country’s strict zero-Covid lockdowns. In contrast, the downtrend in global
markets persists with more pressure ahead due to monetary tightening and the
growing risk of a recession.  

«As has been the case since late April, early May, China [A-shares could be]
probably the only bright spot where you have a large economy rebounding from the
lows with a policy stance which is supportive,» said Lombard Odier’s APAC chief
investment officer Jean-Louis Nakamura in a recent webinar attended by
finews.asia.



«There are not so many such windows of opportunities that exist in the market so
far. So even if equity markets rebounded 15 percent to 20 percent already from
the lows, we believe there is still room […] for a similar type of returns in
the next three to four months.»

Insulation Drives Returns

According to Nakamura, there are two major reasons why the bank has been
positive on A-shares since April this year. 

Firstly, the market is mostly exposed to a domestic economy that has already
bottomed out policy tightening in 2021 with easing now underway, compared to
rising rates in developed economies. Secondly, there is also less correlation
with global markets due to the lower levels of overseas capital, in contrast
with the higher beta H-share market.

Still Cautious

Nonetheless, Lombard Odier continues to exercise caution, especially for big
tech firms in China.

«Big tech platforms are still subject to uncertainties. Yes, the government and
the authorities in China have claimed that the bulk of regulatory tightening was
behind us so there’s no more bad news to expect. We want to see it first to
completely believe it,» Nakamura said.

«Keep in mind that even if there is no more bad news on the regulatory front for
web-based platforms, the level of the regulatory framework put in place for
those companies in China is now far tighter than what we can see in the US and
Europe. Which means the level of profitability and fair level of valuations of
these companies cannot be compared.»

Within China A-shares, Lombard Odier is positive on companies and sectors that
are expected to benefit from the domestic reopening and infrastructure push.
They include consumer discretionary, materials, manufacturing equipment and
technology, especially those related to climate transition or clean energy.


ADVERTORIAL Monday, 27 June 2022 07:30


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MORE ON THIS TOPIC

 * Lombard Odier Taps Wealth Veteran From UBS
 * Maxime Perrin: «Investors Must Invest in the Transition Itself»
 * Lombard Odier: «Market Swings Don’t Have a Big Impact on Us»
 * Finews Survey Highlights Greenwashing Problem
 * Lombard Odier Formalizes Partnership in Australia


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