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USED VEHICLE VALUE INDEX

INDEX RELEASE DATES

Manheim Consulting releases the latest update of its Used Vehicle Value Index on
the fifth business day of each month. To get reminders about these updates and
for Jonathan Smoke's quarterly conference calls, please email
manheim.data@coxautoinc.com.



QUARTERLY CONFERENCE CALL

Next Conference Call
Friday, Apr 7
11am ET

Please RSVP to add the presentation to your calendar and see how to join.

You are invited to join Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke and Chris
Frey, Senior Manager of Economic and Industry Insights, as they discuss the
latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and the major economic and industry
trends that shaped the quarter. Jonathan and Chris will be joined by Jeremy
Robb, Senior Director, Economic & Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, who will
highlight key wholesale pricing and sales conversion metrics. 

Listen to a recording of the last call.

For questions, or to request data, please email manheim.data@coxautoinc.com. If
you want regular updates about the Manhiem Used Vehicle Value Index, as well as
direct invitations to the quarterly call sent to you, please sign up for our Cox
Automotive newsletter and select Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index quarterly
calls.

The presentation will be available one hour before the conference call.

January 2023 Presentation

View Previous Presentations

October 2022

July 2022

April 2022

January 2022

 

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used
vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used
vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics
of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic
analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market,
but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual
remarketer's results.

 




WHOLESALE USED-VEHICLE PRICES SEE INCREASE IN FIRST HALF OF MARCH

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted
basis) increased 1.8% from February in the first 15 days of March. The midmonth
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 238.6, which was down 2.1% from the
full month of March 2022. The seasonal adjustment minimized the gains. The
non-adjusted price change in the first half of March was an increase of 3.8%
compared to February, while the unadjusted price was down 2.6% year over year.

Over the last two weeks, Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices increased by an
aggregate of 1.6%. Prices usually increase in the first two weeks of March, as
the average price change for these weeks in the six years from 2014 through 2019
was an increase of 1.2%. Over the first 15 days of March, MMR Retention, the
average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 100.5%, indicating
that valuation models are below market prices. The average daily sales
conversion rate of 68.3% in the first half of March increased relative to
February’s daily average of 63.8% and was above the March 2019 daily average of
65.3%.

Seven of eight major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were
again lower year over year in the first half of March. Pickups had a 0.9%
increase, while only midsize and compact cars lost less compared to the overall
industry in seasonally adjusted year-over-year changes. The remaining segments
lost between 2.4% and 7.7%, with luxury cars faring the worst. Seven of eight
major segments saw price increases compared to February, with gains ranging from
0.1% to 2.4%. Sports cars were the lone exception, with a 2.4% decline from
February.

Retail and wholesale days’ supply below normal in mid-March. Using estimates
based on vAuto data as of March 13, used retail days’ supply was 38 days, which
was down three days from the end of February. Days’ supply was down 11 days year
over year and down four days compared with the same week in 2019. Leveraging
Manheim sales and inventory data, we estimate that wholesale supply ended
February at 24 days, down two days from the end of January and down four days
year over year. As of March 15, wholesale supply was at 22 days, down one day
from the end of February, down four days year over year, and four days lower
than in 2019. Used supply measured in days’ supply and compared to 2019 suggests
supply is below normal for this time of year, which indicates conditions that
favor sellers.

238.6 ⇓2.1%

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
Mid-March 2023

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January 1997 = 100

 

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January 1997 = 100



Price Changes for
Selective Market Classes

Enlarge image

Mid-March 2023 vs March 2022

Rental risk prices increase in first two weeks of March. The average price for
rental risk units sold at auction in the first 15 days of March was up 2.1% year
over year. Rental risk prices were up 0.3% compared to the full month of
February. Average mileage for rental risk units in the first half of March (at
65,100 miles) was up 3.4% compared to a year ago and up 7.2% month over month.

Tax refund dollars down compared to last year. The 2023 tax refund season is
well ahead of last year in terms of the distribution of refunds, but the average
refund is down. With statistics through the week ending March 3, more than $127
billion in refunds have been issued. While the number of refunds issued is 11%
ahead of last year, 1.5% less has been disbursed than last year, and the average
refund at $3,028 is down 11% year over year. The faster distribution of refunds
caused this year’s tax refund season to start earlier, but the decline in
dollars and in the average refund is likely to lead to less robust sales this
spring.

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