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SHOULD YOU BUY AMAZON STOCK IN 2025?

By Keith Speights – Dec 25, 2024 at 5:40AM

Key Points

 * Arguments against buying Amazon include its valuation and economic
   uncertainty.
 * Arguments for buying Amazon include its increasing earnings and strong growth
   prospects.
 * No one knows for sure how Amazon stock will perform in 2025, but it should
   still be a great pick for long-term investors in the new year.
 * Buy Alert: Our 10 best stocks to buy right now (see the list)


NASDAQ: AMZN


AMAZON



Market Cap
$2,353B

Today's Change
Arrow-Thin-Down
(-1.45%) -$3.30
Current Price
$223.75
Price as of December 27, 2024, 4:00 p.m. ET


Another year, another huge gain for Amazon (AMZN -1.45%). Shares of the
e-commerce and cloud services giant skyrocketed 81% in 2023. The stock is on
track to finish 2024 up close to 50%.

But should you buy Amazon stock in 2025? Here are the arguments for and against
this high-flying stock.

Arrows-In Collapse



NASDAQ: AMZN

Amazon
Today's Change
(-1.45%) -$3.30
Current Price
$223.75
Arrow-Thin-Down
YTD1w1m3m 6m
+15.57%
1y5y
Price VS S&P
AMZN


KEY DATA POINTS

Market Cap
$2,353B
Day's Range
$220.90 - $226.03
52wk Range
$144.05 - $233.00
Volume
27,356,744
Avg Vol
37,926,340
Gross Margin
48.41%
Dividend Yield
N/A


THE ARGUMENTS AGAINST BUYING AMAZON STOCK

Let's start with the negative case against Amazon. One side effect of
back-to-back years of huge gains is that the stock's valuation could be
worrisome for many investors. Amazon's shares trade at nearly 36 times forward
earnings. That multiple makes Amazon the second-most expensive "Magnificent
Seven" stock (trailing behind only Tesla.)

Another reason to be leery of buying Amazon stock in the new year is the
economic uncertainty. We've already seen the Federal Reserve indicate
tentativeness about the number of interest rate cuts on the way in 2025. If the
Fed becomes more nervous about the U.S. economy, it could signal bad news for
Amazon.

Many investors also seem to be completely discounting the potential impact of
steep tariffs President-elect Trump has pledged to impose. Those tariffs could
cause the prices of many products to rise. If inflation resurges, consumer
spending could decline and hurt Amazon's business.



There are some signs that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom that boosted
Amazon Web Services (AWS) could be slowing down as well. Alphabet and Google CEO
Sundar Pichai even stated earlier this month, "I think the progress is going to
get harder." He added, "[T]he low-hanging fruit is gone." This could translate
to slower growth for AWS and its cloud services peers.


THE ARGUMENTS FOR BUYING AMAZON STOCK

The valuation criticism about Amazon isn't as strong as it might seem at first
glance. For one thing, the company's earnings multiples have been even higher in
the past, with its share price continuing to climb.


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More importantly, though, Amazon's earnings and free cash flow are growing more
robustly than they have in a long time. For example, in the third quarter of
2024, the company reported earnings of $15.3 billion, up nearly 55% year over
year. Its free cash flow nearly tripled year over year to $44.9 billion.

Maybe economic tumult will negatively impact Amazon in 2025. However, it's also
possible that the good times will continue to roll for the company over the near
term. Amazon will almost certainly continue to prosper over the long term.



CEO Andy Jassy routinely talks about his expectations for the cloud services
market. Jassy believes that the current mix of around 85% of global IT spending
on-premises with the rest in the cloud will reverse over the next 10 years or
so. AWS is poised to benefit from this shift.

Jassy also predicts a similar trend for e-commerce. He estimated during Amazon's
Q3 earnings call that between 80% and 85% of retail is still in physical stores,
with the remainder e-commerce. Jassy said he thinks "that equation is going to
flip in the next 10 to 20 years." As the leader in e-commerce, Amazon should be
one of the biggest winners if he's right.

Not everyone agrees that AI progress is slowing, either. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
recently posted on X, "There is no wall." AI agents could be the next big thing
in AI. You can bet Amazon will be in the thick of the race, if so.


MY VERDICT

I think there are two questions with different answers:


 1. Will Amazon stock rise in 2025?
 2. Should you buy Amazon stock in 2025?

The answer to the first question is probably unfulfilling, but true: No one
knows for sure. I think the chances are good that Amazon stock will increase in
the new year, but there are simply too many variables that could present
problems.

As for the second question, I think the answer is yes -- at least for many
investors. If you want income, Amazon won't be for you, since it doesn't pay a
dividend. However, if you seek growth and have a long-term perspective, this
stock should remain one of the better picks on the market, in my view.


SHOULD YOU INVEST $1,000 IN AMAZON RIGHT NOW?

Before you buy stock in Amazon, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are
the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Amazon wasn’t one of them. The
10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000
at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $857,565!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 922% — a
market-crushing outperformance compared to 176% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out
on the latest top 10 list.

See the 10 stocks



*Stock Advisor returns as of December 23, 2024





John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member
of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet,
is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Keith Speights has
positions in Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and
recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


MOTLEY FOOL ISSUES A.I. BUY ALERT

This tech could reach $80 trillion. Imagine a technology worth over 23 Nvidias.

What in the world could be worth 23 Nvidias? The answer is a radical tech
breakthrough that our experts think is transforming every walk of life. And this
giant leap forward has many on Wall Street very excited.

Learn more ›

Related Articles

The Bull Market Keeps Growing: 4 Reasons to Buy Amazon Like There's No Tomorrow
3 Reasons to Buy Amazon Stock Like There's No Tomorrow
Best Large-Cap Stock to Buy: Amazon Stock vs. Walmart Stock
Cathie Wood Goes Bargain Hunting: 3 Stocks She Just Bought
Amazon Has Officially Entered the Car Dealer Business
922%
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