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WILL DECEMBER SURPASS NOVEMBER’S RECORD-BREAKING BITCOIN PRICE INCREASE?

From Historic Gains to Future Growth: What the November Bitcoin Price
Breakthrough Means for Investors in December.
 * Author:
   Matt Crosby
 * Publish date:
   Nov 29, 2024



From Historic Gains to Future Growth: What the November Bitcoin Price
Breakthrough Means for Investors in December.

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Bitcoin is closing out one of its most remarkable months in history, surging
over $30,000 in November and marking a renewed bullish sentiment in the market.
As we look ahead to December and beyond, investors are eager to understand
whether Bitcoin's momentum can sustain itself into 2025. With macroeconomic
conditions, historical trends, and on-chain data aligning in Bitcoin’s favor,
let’s analyze what’s happening and what it could mean for the future.


NOVEMBER’S RECORD-BREAKING PERFORMANCE

November 2024 wasn’t just any month for Bitcoin; it was historic. Bitcoin's
price rose from around $67,000 to nearly $100,000, an approximate 50%
peak-to-trough increase, making it the best-performing month ever in terms of
dollar increase. This rally rewarded long-term holders who endured months of
consolidation after Bitcoin's all-time high of $74,000 earlier in the year.



Figure 1: Bitcoin has rallied over $30,000 in November.

View Live Chart 🔍

Historically, Q4 is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, and November has often been a
standout month. December, which has also performed well in past bull cycles,
presents a promising outlook. But as with any rally, some short-term cooling
might be expected.





Figure 2: Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s best-performing period.

View Live Chart 🔍


THE ROLE OF THE DOLLAR AND GLOBAL LIQUIDITY

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s rise occurred against the backdrop of a strengthening
U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY), a scenario that typically sees Bitcoin
underperforming. Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY have maintained an inverse
relationship: when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin weakens, and vice versa.

Figure 3: Bitcoin rallied even as the strength of USD increased.



View Live Chart 🔍

Similarly, the Global M2 money supply, another key metric, has shown a slight
contraction recently. Bitcoin has historically correlated positively with global
liquidity; thus, its current performance defies expectations. If liquidity
conditions improve in the coming months, this could act as a powerful tailwind
for Bitcoin’s price.

Figure 4: Global M2 YoY chart showing liquidity contraction.





View Live Chart 🔍


PARALLELS TO PAST BULL CYCLES

Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to past bull markets,
particularly the 2016–2017 cycle. That cycle began with gradual price increases
before breaking key resistance levels and entering an exponential growth phase.

In 2017, Bitcoin’s price broke out from a key technical level of around $1,000,
leading to a parabolic rally that peaked at $20,000, a 20x increase. Similarly,
the 2020-2021 cycle saw Bitcoin rise from $20,000 to nearly $70,000 after
breaking above the crucial YoY Performance threshold.

Figure 5: Current BTC performance showing parallels to price prior to breaking
previous major resistance levels.



View Live Chart 🔍

If Bitcoin can break out decisively from this historic level and above the key
$100,000 resistance, we may witness a repeat of these explosive price movements
as BTC enters its exponential phase of bullish price action.


INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION AND ACCUMULATION

A key factor underpinning Bitcoin’s strength is the continued accumulation by
institutions. Bitcoin ETFs are adding billions of dollars worth of BTC to their
holdings, and corporations like MicroStrategy have doubled down on their Bitcoin
strategy, now holding close to 400,000 BTC. Even with BTC rallying to new
all-time highs, ‘smart money’ is scrambling to accumulate as much as possible to
ensure they’re not left behind.





Figure 6: Institutions are not waiting for a retracement to accumulate BTC.

View Live Chart 🔍

This institutional demand indicates growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term
store of value, even in volatile market conditions. Such accumulation also
tightens the available supply, creating upward pressure on prices as demand
increases.




CONCLUSION

While December has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, short-term
volatility could temper gains as the market digests November’s sharp rally.
Although given the aggressive accumulation we’re witnessing from institutional
participants anything is possible.

Longer-term, however, the outlook remains exceptionally bullish. The obvious
level to watch is $100,000 as the next major milestone, which, if breached,
could pave the way for a much larger rally in 2025. Bitcoin is entering one of
its most exciting phases yet, with the stars seemingly aligning across
macroeconomic, technical, and on-chain metrics.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
The BIGGEST Bitcoin Month EVER - So What Happens Next?






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