www.huffingtonpost.co.uk
Open in
urlscan Pro
151.101.66.114
Public Scan
URL:
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/strikes-rishi-sunak-cost-claim-does-not-add-up_uk_63984123e4b0169d76da1694
Submission: On December 15 via api from BG — Scanned from DE
Submission: On December 15 via api from BG — Scanned from DE
Form analysis 1 forms found in the DOM
<form class="newsletter__input"><input type="email" class="newsletter__input__text" name="email_address" aria-label="Enter your email address" placeholder="address@email.com" value="" aria-describedby="newsletter-error" autocomplete="email"><input
type="submit" class="newsletter__input__submit js-cet-item" aria-label="SIGN UP" value="SIGN UP">
<div id="newsletter-error" class="newsletter__error"></div>
</form>Text Content
WE VALUE YOUR PRIVACY We and our partners store and/or access information on a device, such as cookies and process personal data, such as unique identifiers and standard information sent by a device for personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, and audience insights, as well as to develop and improve products. With your permission we and our partners may use precise geolocation data and identification through device scanning. You may click to consent to our and our partners’ processing as described above. Alternatively you may click to refuse to consent or access more detailed information and change your preferences before consenting. Please note that some processing of your personal data may not require your consent, but you have a right to object to such processing. Your preferences will apply to a group of websites. You can change your preferences at any time by returning to this site or visit our privacy policy. MORE OPTIONSDISAGREE & EXITAGREE & EXIT Skip to Main Content × MAIN MENU U.K. edition NEWS Latest NewsWorld NewsExplainersInvestigations CORONAVIRUS COST OF LIVING POLITICS Boris JohnsonBrexitLabourConservatives ENTERTAINMENT Celebrity NewsWe Love TVMusicFilmNostalgiaSoapsEntertainment InsiderGood Vibes Only LIFE HealthMental HealthSex & RelationshipsWellbeingGreen LivingTravelWomenFood & DrinkMoney & WorkHome & GardenThe SpoilsMoveAm I Making You Uncomfortable?Anywhere But Here SHOPPING PARENTS Life As A ParentHow To Raise A KidBirth DiariesMumsDadsBabies & ToddlersChildrenTeenagersParent VoicesFamily Time PRIDE FROM OUR PARTNERS That Reading Feeling AwaitsTeach in Further Education FOLLOW US Terms | Privacy Policy Part of HuffPost Politics. ©2022 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. NewsCost of LivingPoliticsEntertainmentLifeShoppingParents U.K. editionOpen editions submenu Politics governmentRishi SunakstrikesInflation 'DODGY NUMBERS': WHY SUNAK'S CLAIM ABOUT COST OF INCREASING STRIKING WORKERS' PAY DOESN'T ADD UP The government says it would cost £28 billion to increase striking public workers' wages. By Kate Nicholson Senior Trends Reporter, HuffPost UK 13/12/2022 10:43am GMT Rishi Sunak's claims about the additional cost of increasing workers' pay don't add up Getty The government has repeatedly refused to meet striking workers’ pay demands by claiming it would cost too much. There are set to be strikes on every single day for the rest of the year, bringing the health industry, national transport and postal services to a standstill (to name just a few sectors), as employees walk out over years of stagnant pay. Advertisement In response, Downing Street has just repeatedly claimed this would cost the taxpayer £28 billion. But is that accurate? Here’s why one expert said it was just “dodgy numbers”. WHAT DOES THE GOVERNMENT CLAIM? Prime minister Rishi Sunak has said that the government will only accept the advice of public sector pay review bodies. He also added: “What I’m not going to do is ask ordinary families up and down the country to pay an extra £1,000 a year to meet the pay demands of the union bosses.” Health secretary Steve Barclay then repeated these numbers, telling BBC Breakfast: “If everyone in the public sector had a pay rise in line with inflation, it would cost an extra £28 billion, an extra £1,000 per household.” Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has also warned that increasing all public sector wages would “lock in” high inflation. Advertisement No.10 has claimed: “It is unaffordable to match inflation as it currently runs. If we were to do so, we firmly believe that would embed inflation and act against everyone’s interests.” WHERE DID THE GOVERNMENT GET THESE NUMBERS FROM? When approached by the BBC about its calculations, the government said it looked at the total cost of public sector salaries for 2021 to 2022 – this came to £233 billion. Then, it increased the number by around 5% to account for the public sector pay deals already in place, taking it to £245 billion. Then it increased it by 11% – to match the inflation figure for October 2022 – which seems to take a potential pay hike to an additional £27 billion cost. Advertisement The government added an extra £1 billion for “assumptions on pay drift and workforce growth”, too. The £28 billion was subsequently divided by the UK’s 28 million households in the UK, working out to £1,000. SO, WHAT’S WRONG WITH THESE CALCULATIONS? It doesn’t use the average inflation rate The government bizarrely chooses only the inflation rate from October - which is at a 41-year high - to calculate the cost to the taxpayer. But, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) thinks average inflation for this year and next year will come to around 10%. And as there are 5.7 million employees working in the public sector right now, their wages altogether came to £233 billion in 2021. Workers are indeed calling for their wages to be increased in line with inflation, so that would mean the total cost to the government would increase by £23 billion – if looking at the average inflation rate. Advertisement This would still work out to around £820 per household – not £1,000 – according to the BBC’s reality check team, as there are 28 million households in the UK. UK annual inflation rate PA Graphics via PA Graphics/Press Association Images Doesn’t discount the already agreed pay rises The government was already planning to increase the public sector wage by around 3% for 2022-23, as it revealed last autumn. The IFS (Institute for Fiscal Studies) thinks that if the wages were increased to match 2021′s average inflation rate of 10%, and the 3% rise was included into the sums, increasing wages would cost £18 billion. This would work out to around £640 per household. Not using the inflation rate for next year The IFS has noted that the inflation rate used by the government here will have changed substantially by 2023-24, so it is effectively using a historic rate to calculate future stats. Advertisement The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) thinks by next year, the average pay inflation will reach 5.5% instead. Even when the IFS looked at using the government’s method to calculate these numbers, using 5.5% inflation instead would take total cost would be “more like £14 billion” – making the PM’s claim that it will cost an extra £1,000 still excessive. Pay growth v inflation. PA Graphics via PA Graphics/Press Association Images Excluding tax BBC’s Reality Check also pointed out that the government would get around a third of the pay increase back through tax, if the public sector’s pay deal was connected to inflation. As IFS’ Ben Zaranko noted, this would “further reduce the net cost” of increasing public sector pay. Zaranko explained: “Dividing [the total cost to the government] by the number of households and implying that every ‘ordinary’ household would have to pay that amount extra in tax is a bit misleading: it obviously depends on which taxes were increased.” Advertisement In his Twitter thread, the economist added: “None of this is to say anything about the arguments for/against a higher public sector pay award. There’s a proper debate to be had. But we shouldn’t have it on the basis of dodgy numbers.” RELATED governmentRishi SunakstrikesInflation 'WHY DON'T YOU JUST INTERVIEW YOURSELF?' MICK LYNCH TEARS INTO RICHARD MADELEY MASS STRIKE ACTION TO GO AHEAD AS GOVERNMENT REFUSES TO BUDGE OVER PAY THIS BLEAK CHART EXPLAINS EXACTLY WHY SO MANY PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS ARE STRIKING NOW Go To Homepage BEFORE YOU GO KATE NICHOLSON Senior Trends Reporter, HuffPost UK Suggest a correction YOU MAY LIKE TRENDING FREDDIE FLINTOFF 'LUCKY TO BE ALIVE' AFTER 'NASTY' TOP GEAR CRASH, SAYS HIS SON WE'VE ALL BEEN WIPING WRONG AFTER A POO, ACCORDING TO THIS PHYSIO 16 THINGS YOU NEVER KNEW ABOUT WHAM!'S LAST CHRISTMAS HOW BRITAIN'S SEASIDE TOWNS HAVE TURNED THEIR BACKS ON THE TORIES 'MY BOYFRIEND IS GREAT, SO WHY DO I WANT SEX WITH OTHER PEOPLE?' PRIMATOLOGIST JANE GOODALL WATCHED A MONTAGE OF TRUMP AND HER ANALYSIS WAS SOMETHING Newsletter sign-up HUFFPOST UK DAILY BRIEF Sign up and we will email you daily with the best of our political and news coverage while also giving you a taste of our most-popular lifestyle, opinion and personal blogs. Successfully Signed Up! Realness delivered to your inbox. By entering your email and clicking Sign Up, you're agreeing to let us send you customized marketing messages about us and our advertising partners. You are also agreeing to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. WHAT'S HOT PRIMATOLOGIST JANE GOODALL WATCHED A MONTAGE OF TRUMP AND HER ANALYSIS WAS SOMETHING 'HERO' FISHERMAN DESCRIBES RESCUING DOZENS FROM DEATH IN ENGLISH CHANNEL THIS IS HOW TO MAKE THE PERFECT GRAVY, ACCORDING TO SCIENTISTS JOE LYCETT CLAIMS HE'S FINALLY HEARD BACK FROM DAVID BECKHAM OVER QATAR AMBASSADOR CONTROVERSY MORE IN POLITICS HERE'S WHAT NURSES ARE SAYING AS THEY GO ON STRIKE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A CENTURY DOMINIC RAAB SHOULD BE SUSPENDED OVER BULLYING CLAIMS, FORMER TORY CHAIRMAN SUGGESTS GOVERNMENT'S PAY OFFER TO NURSES IS 'TOO LOW', SAYS SENIOR TORY MP 'IT IS A TRAGIC DAY': RCN CHIEF PAT CULLEN 'TRULY SORRY' AS NURSES STAGE FIRST-EVER WALKOUT GOVERNMENT MULLS BAN ON MANY SINGLE-USE PLASTICS IN ENGLAND BORIS JOHNSON POCKETS £1M AS GUEST SPEAKER SINCE BEING OUSTED AS PM ALLIES WANT TO GIVE UKRAINE 'DECISIVE EDGE' IN WAR WITH RUSSIA, WESTERN OFFICIALS SAY WE'LL ESTABLISH 'SAFE' ROUTES AFTER BOATS ARE DEALT WITH, SUELLA BRAVERMAN SAYS 'WHAT IS THE POINT OF HIM?' KEIR STARMER SLAMS RISHI SUNAK'S INACTION OVER STRIKES DOMINIC RAAB FACING FIVE MORE BULLYING COMPLAINTS LABOUR MP USES 12 DAYS OF CHRISTMAS TO PERFECTLY SUM UP THIS YEAR'S TORY CHAOS LABOUR MP CLAIMS SENDING MIGRANTS TO HOLIDAY PARKS IS AKIN TO 'CONCENTRATION CAMPS' ENERGY SUPPORT SCHEME WILL BE EXTENDED IN APRIL, CHANCELLOR JEREMY HUNT SAYS INFLATION HAS DROPPED – BUT WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET 'FACTIONAL TENSIONS' HIT RUSSIA'S MILITARY CHIEFS OVER UKRAINE WAR, SAYS UK INTELLIGENCE BORIS JOHNSON AND PRITI PATEL PILE PRESSURE ON RISHI SUNAK OVER RWANDA FLIGHTS CHILDCARE WILL BE TREATED AS 'NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE' AFTER MAJOR VICTORY FOR CAMPAIGNERS HERE'S WHAT RISHI SUNAK MIGHT DO TO TACKLE STRIKES WES STREETING RAMPS UP WAR OF WORDS WITH HEALTH UNION IN SPAT OVER NHS REFORM RISHI SUNAK HAS SAID ASYLUM SEEKERS WILL BE PUT UP IN FORMER HOLIDAY CAMPS LABOUR HEADING FOR LANDSLIDE MAJORITY AS TORIES SLUMP TO JUST 69 SEATS, NEW POLL PREDICTS MICK LYNCH DIVIDES RADIO 4 LISTENERS WITH SPIKY INTERVIEW 'WHY DON'T YOU JUST INTERVIEW YOURSELF?' MICK LYNCH TEARS INTO RICHARD MADELEY VLADIMIR PUTIN CANCELS END-OF-YEAR PRESS CONFERENCE AS RUSSIAN ANTI-WAR FEELING GROWS CANCELLED OPERATIONS SOAR DUE TO NHS STAFF SHORTAGES, LABOUR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MASS STRIKE ACTION TO GO AHEAD AS GOVERNMENT REFUSES TO BUDGE OVER PAY THIS BLEAK CHART EXPLAINS EXACTLY WHY SO MANY PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS ARE STRIKING NOW RUSSIA ADMITS 'NO ONE LIKES US' AS UK PREDICTS MORE STRATEGIC FAILURE FOR MOSCOW GOVERNMENT REJECTS CALLS TO DELAY CONTROVERSIAL VOTER ID PLANS 19% PAY RISE FOR NURSES IS 'UNAFFORDABLE', KEIR STARMER SAYS PEOPLE CAN'T TEAR THEIR EYES AWAY FROM THIS ONE MATT HANCOCK TIKTOK UK ECONOMY WILL 'GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER', JEREMY HUNT WARNS THE GOVERNMENT HAS ASKED THE MILITARY TO DRIVE AMBULANCES DURING THE STRIKES STEVE BARCLAY SKEWERED BY BBC PRESENTER OVER REFUSAL TO NEGOTIATE WITH NHS UNIONS THE ECONOMY HAS GROWN – SO WHY ARE THERE STILL RECESSION CONCERNS? POLITICS QUIZ 2022: HOW MUCH CAN YOU REMEMBER FROM THE MADDEST YEAR EVER? PRITI PATEL BACKS NEW TORY 'DEMOCRACY' MOVEMENT IN FRESH HEADACHE FOR RISHI SUNAK 'DESPICABLE' THAT UK NURSES ARE 'LOWEST PAID IN EUROPE', RCN'S PAT CULLEN SAYS WES STREETING SAYS HE'S BEEN TREATED LIKE A 'HERETIC' BY THE BMA OVER PATIENT PLANS 'I'M NOT GETTING A STRAIGHT ANSWER!' SKY PRESENTER TEARS INTO JAMES CLEVERLY NewsCost of LivingPoliticsEntertainmentLifeShoppingParents About UsContact UsWork For UsAdvertise With UsStandards And CorrectionsRSSUser AgreementComment PolicyPrivacy PolicyConsent Preferences Part of HuffPost Politics. ©2022 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. The Huffington Post