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ADB CUTS SOUTH KOREA'S 2025 GROWTH FORECAST TO 2%

The Asian Development Bank cites semiconductor export slowdown as major factor
hindering growth

By Park So-Jeong,
Lee Jae-eun
Published 2024.12.11. 14:17
0









The Asian Development Bank (ADB). / Ministry of Economy and Finance

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered South Korea’s 2025 growth outlook
to 2%, down 0.3 percentage points from its earlier forecast.

The Manila-based bank announced Korea’s revised gross domestic product (GDP)
growth rate outlook in its latest report, according to the Ministry of Economy
and Finance on Dec. 11.

The ADB’s forecast is on par with the International Monetary Fund’s recent
projection and slightly higher than the Bank of Korea’s 1.9% outlook. However,
it is lower than those of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (2.1%) and the Korean government (2.2%). The bank also cut Korea’s
growth projection for this year from 2.5% to 2.2%.

The ADB anticipates that lower interest rates and government policies aimed at
bolstering spending will improve Korea’s domestic demand. But it expects growth
to slow as export momentum driven by AI chips wanes due to the semiconductor
sector downturn. The ADB’s recent forecast does not factor in recent
developments such as President Yoon Suk-yeol’s short-lived martial law
declaration and subsequent efforts by lawmakers to impeach the president.

For the broader Asian region, the ADB revised its 2024 growth forecast downward
by 0.1 percentage points to 4.8%. Projections for Asian countries include 4.5%
for China, 2.5% for Taiwan, 2.3% for Hong Kong, 7.0% for India, and 2.6% for
Singapore.

The region’s growth outlook for this year was also lowered by 0.1 percentage
points to 4.9%, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic spending in East Asia
and South Asia.

“Policy changes in the U.S., including potential tariff hikes imposed by the
second Trump administration, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and China’s real
estate slump are downside risks to growth in the Asia-Pacific region,” said the
ADB.

ADBSouth KoreaeconomygrowthGDPsemiconductorexports




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