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BREXIT DOMINO EFFECT: FOUR COUNTRIES TIPPED TO FOLLOW UK OUT OF EU IN
CATASTROPHIC MOVE


THE EU MIGHT BE ON THE VERGE OF A CATASTROPHIC COLLAPSE, AS A PROMINENT ACADEMIC
HAS SUGGESTED FOUR COUNTRIES COULD FOLLOW BRITAIN OUT OF THE BLOC.

By Martina Bet
10:31, Fri, Jun 26, 2020 | UPDATED: 12:24, Sat, Jun 27, 2020
0 Link copied Bookmark


BREXIT: EXPERT REVEALS 'CONTRADICTION' IN THE 'ROOT' OF THE EU



At the end of May, France and Germany announced they are backing the creation of
an EU bond to raise €500billion (£447billion) to boost the European economy,
severely weakened by the coronavirus pandemic. The two leaders, Emmanuel Macron
and Angela Merkel, unveiled their proposal in a joint video press conference. If
approved, it would be the first time the bloc has pooled its debt in this way.


TRENDING

The measure immediately raised objections from the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark
and Sweden, known as the "Frugal Four", who support the establishment of a
one-off emergency fund but do not back debt sharing or a significant increase in
the EU’s next seven-year budget.



These four countries regard "mutualised debt" as a mortal danger because it
would open the door to the dreaded Eurobonds – meaning Dutch, Swedish, Danish
and Austrian taxpayers could become liable for the debt of other countries.

The pressure that the pandemic poses on the EU as a whole might work in favour
of the Franco-German joint proposal, though.

Andrew Watt, head of the unit for European economic policy at the Hans-Böckler
Foundation, said: “The Frugals, on paper, have a fairly strong position in the
sense that this whole thing is located within the European Union budget.





Brexit domino effect: Four countries tipped to follow Britain out of EU in
catastrophic move (Image: GETTY)



French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a
videoconference call (Image: GETTY)

“In practice, though, none of them want to go down in the history books as the
country that, faced with a pandemic, after all these countries have gone
through, let them starve.”

The plan is, nonetheless, a dangerous step as according to Pepijn Bergsen, a
research fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, it might spark a
Brexit domino effect – at least, in attitudes towards the bloc.

In an entry for the London School of Economics (LSE) blog, he wrote: "The
similarities with previous British positions in the EU are clear.

"The Frugal Four Prime Ministers value their rebates as much as Margaret
Thatcher once did.

"It is not too much of a stretch to say that the current proposal would never
have even made it to the table had the United Kingdom still been a member of the
EU, as London would have almost certainly vetoed it.

"One of the arguments often put forward in favour of Brexit was that the UK
should leave before it would inevitably get roped into the eurozone’s mess.

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Former Prime Minster Margaret Thatcher (Image: GETTY)



Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (Image: GETTY)


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"During the euro crisis, the UK largely avoided this fate, only contributing to
the bailouts of Portugal and Ireland.

"But having to pay for economic support for the southern euro countries is
exactly what is now being asked from non-euro countries like Sweden, Denmark and
Czechia."

Moreover, Mr Bergsen argued, the comparison with the UK is also instructive
because the Frugal Four were often closely aligned with London in EU debates.

They broadly share the British focus on free trade and on the EU as an economic
project, as opposed to its political dimension, as Germany more often tends to
focus on.

The academic noted: "Just like the UK, the Frugal Four also tend to have
relatively eurosceptic electorates, albeit ones that continue to indicate in
polls that they would vote to remain in the EU if asked.

"The COVID-19 crisis has drawn attention to Italian voters and their
disillusionment with the EU caused by the lack of support they experienced
during their time of need in this pandemic.

"As Catherine de Vries, a preeminent scholar of public opinion on European
integration showed on this blog, this does not mean they necessarily want to
follow the UK out of the EU.

"If anything, they are instead asking for more Europe, in part out of
dissatisfaction with the functioning of their own democracy."

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Chancellor of Austria Sebastian Kurz (Image: GETTY)


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In contrast, electorates in many of the frugal countries, Mr Bergsen claimed,
tend to be relatively satisfied with their national governments and the state of
their democracies, while significantly less enthusiastic about further political
integration in the EU.

He explained: "Governments and politicians in the Frugal Four largely continue
to talk about European integration in the way most British politicians used to,
using it as a handy scapegoat for unpopular policy and blustering in Brussels
mainly to satisfy their domestic audience.

"In the short run, this strategy has led them to clash with, not just most of
the rest of the bloc, but also their previous ally within the EU – Germany.

"In the long run, such a strategy raises questions over how the Frugal Four will
deal with the secular pressure for more integration within the eurozone,
particularly for the Netherlands and Austria as Denmark and Sweden are unlikely
to join the single currency anytime soon.

"Even in areas other than the euro, there will be a push for more integration.

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"This will create conflict with the vision of the EU that many of these member
states share with the UK, which is now no longer in the club helping them to
push back against this direction of integration."

Mr Bergsen concluded that a clear appreciation of their small size and heft in
the world and their deep economic integration with the rest of the EU might
discourage them from following the UK out of the union.

However, the current episode once again highlights "the difficulty of deeper
integration" between countries with a very different vision for the future of
the EU and a political class "unable, or unwilling, to try and shift their
electorate’s stance on Europe".


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