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The guardrails approach is a flexible retirement withdrawal strategy: Here's how
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THE GUARDRAILS APPROACH IS A FLEXIBLE RETIREMENT WITHDRAWAL STRATEGY: HERE’S HOW
IT WORKS


SELECT EXPLORES A NEW RETIREMENT WITHDRAWAL STRATEGY KNOWN AS THE GUARDRAILS
APPROACH.

Updated Sun, Feb 6 2022
Trina Paul@thetrinapaul
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Select’s editorial team works independently to review financial products and
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Many experts recommend that people withdraw 4% from their retirement portfolio
each year in order to make their retirement savings last. This much touted
advice, however, may not hold true for today’s retirees. While personal finance
experts have relied on the 4% rule for years, a recent Morningstar report
predicted that future retirees might have a higher chance of making their
retirement savings last if they use a lower withdrawal rate.

Financial planner William Bengen first developed the 4% rule in 1994 by using
historical returns of the stock market and a 30-year retirement horizon. The 4%
rule dictates that people should withdraw 4% of their retirement portfolios in
the first year, only adjusting for inflation each subsequent year. By using a
portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% bonds, Bengen found that people with a 4%
withdrawal rate had a 90% chance of success (which meant not running out of
money during retirement).



Yet today’s retiree’s are facing an entirely different financial market.

While current retirees have experienced higher than expected stock market and
bond returns over the past 30 years, researchers at Morningstar predict that
future retirees might find themselves facing lower returns on bonds and stocks
after the market’s recent stellar performance.

This could mean a future decline in the value of people’s retirement portfolios.
The report recommends that retirees consider a lower withdrawal rate of 3.3% to
ensure they don’t run out of money in retirement.

Though researchers suggest a lower withdrawal rate with adjustments for
inflation, retirees might also consider trying a more dynamic withdrawal
approach. The guardrail approach is one such method. Below, Select explains what
the guardrails approach is and how it works.

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WHAT IS THE GUARDRAILS APPROACH TO RETIREMENT?

The guardrails approach, which was developed by financial planner Jonathan
Guyton and professor William Klinger, requires that retirees change their
withdrawal rate based on the performance of the market. This approach is
designed to account for changes in the value of your portfolio. Your withdrawal
rate will fall when the market is doing poorly or increase when it is doing
well.

With the guardrails approach, people set a high guardrail and a low guardrail
based on their target withdrawal rate. Therefore, when your withdrawal rate is
above or below guardrails, you reduce or increase your withdrawal amount so you
end up within the target withdrawal range.

“And if you think about driving your car down a road, you hit a guardrail, it
does two things. It puts a ding in your car, and it changes your momentum so
that instead of the momentum pushing you toward the edge of the road, it now
starts to shift you back toward the middle where it’s safe,” said Guyton in a
Morningstar interview.

Your guardrails are set at 20% above and below your withdrawal rate. For a
target withdrawal rate of 5%, the lower guardrail is 4% and the upper guardrail
is 6%. The target withdrawal range would be between 4 and 6%.

If your withdrawal rate falls outside your guardrails (after adjusting for
inflation) you would take a 10% increase or reduction in your withdrawal amount.
After taking the 10% adjustment, your withdrawal rate should be between the
upper and lower guardrails. For example, if your retirement withdrawal rate is
above 6% next year, you take the inflation-adjusted withdrawal amount and reduce
it by 10% so your withdrawal rate is below 6%. 

Consider what would happen in a market downturn:

 * Year 1: If your portfolio is worth $1 million and your withdrawal rate is 5%,
   you withdraw $50,000.

 * Year 2: The value of your portfolio decreases to $800,000 and your normal
   withdrawal of $50,000, with an adjustment for inflation, would be more than
   6% of your portfolio. This means you’ve hit a guardrail. You would then take
   the inflation-adjusted withdrawal amount (assuming 4% inflation) of $52,000
   and reduce it by 10% so you would withdraw $46,800 which would be less than
   6% of your portfolio.

It’s important to note that the guardrails approach does not require that
retirees cut their spending by 10% in a market downturn. Retirees often have
different sources of income, such as a 401(k) or a traditional IRA. With a
pre-tax retirement account like a traditional IRA and a 401(k), you do not pay
taxes on your upfront contributions, but you pay taxes on the money when you
withdraw it in retirement.

If you had to decrease your withdrawal amount by 10%, part of that reduction
could come from the reduced amount of income tax you owe on your retirement
withdrawals. 

When coming up with your retirement strategy it could be prudent to consult a
financial planner to help find the optimal withdrawal rate and come up with what
your guardrails would be.


SAVING FOR RETIREMENT

You’ll need to start building a retirement nest egg when you’re young in order
to have savings to draw upon in retirement. First off, you should focus on
maximizing your 401(k) match. Some employers offer employees matching 401(k)
contributions, typically between 2 and 4% of each paycheck. Your 401(k)
contributions are made pre-tax and are automatically deducted from your
paycheck.

After you’ve earned your 401(k) match, you might also consider opening an
individual retirement account (IRA). With an individual retirement account,
you’ll have more choice in how you invest your money. An individual retirement
account will typically give you the option of investing in individual stocks,
bonds, mutual funds and CDs. 

The two most popular retirement accounts are the Roth IRA and the traditional
IRA. The major difference between a Roth IRA and a traditional IRA is how the
accounts are taxed.

Contributions to a Roth IRA are taxed upfront, so the contributions can grow and
be withdrawn tax-free. Contributions to a traditional IRA are not taxed until
withdrawal. Roth IRAs have an income limit. In 2022 individuals making more than
$144,000 and married couples filing jointly making more than $214,000 are not
eligible to contribute to a Roth.

There are no income limits for traditional IRAs. Contributions to a traditional
IRA are tax deductible (which means your contribution reduces your taxable
income, and therefore the amount you owe in taxes) depending on your income and
whether you have a retirement plan through work.

When Select analyzed over 20 different Roth IRA accounts, it found that Charles
Schwab, Fidelity Investments, Ally Invest, Betterment and Wealthfront offered
some of the best Roth IRAs. Select looked at which accounts had no (or a low)
minimum deposit, commission-free trading of stocks and ETFs and the variety of
investment options offered to find the best Roth IRAs.


BOTTOM LINE

While the 4% rule has been the preferred withdrawal retirement strategy for many
years, it might be time to consider an approach that addresses the impact that
market volatility can have on people’s retirement strategies. The guardrails
approach is meant to do that.

By setting your guardrails 20% above and below your target withdrawal rate, you
can increase or reduce your retirement withdrawal any time you find yourself
spending outside of the range set by your guardrails. Though this withdrawal
strategy requires more thought and effort than the 4% rule, it could make your
retirement savings last longer.

Catch up on Select’s in-depth coverage of personal finance, tech and
tools, wellness and more, and follow us on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter to
stay up to date.


READ MORE

The 5 best robo-advisors when you want to be hands off with your investments

What is the 4% rule and how can it help you save for retirement?

Retiring in your 30s: Is it possible and is it even a good idea?

Here’s how much money you should invest each month to become a millionaire if
you’re 30


Editorial Note: Opinions, analyses, reviews or recommendations expressed in this
article are those of the Select editorial staff’s alone, and have not been
reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any third party.

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