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JOE BIDEN SAID THE ECONOMY A TOP ISSUE

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With his party struggling in the midterms, his economic stewardship under fire
and his overall job approval under 40%, a clear majority of Democrats in the
latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say the party should replace Joe Biden as
its nominee for president in 2024.

In the November midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47%-46% between
the Republican and the Democratic candidate in their House district,
historically not enough to prevent typical first-midterm losses. And one likely
voter model has a 51%-46% Republican-Democratic split.

Biden struggles, as does his party, as most Democrats look elsewhere for 2024:
POLL

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Looking two years off, just 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents
favor Biden for the 2024 nomination; 56% want the party to pick someone else.

Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, for their part, split 47%-46% on
whether Donald Trump should be their 2024 nominee -- a 20-point drop for Trump
compared with his 2020 nomination.

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The unpopularity of both figures may encourage third-party hopefuls, though they
rarely do well.

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In a head-to-head rematch, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research
Associates, finds a 48%-46% Biden-Trump contest, essentially tied. Among
registered voters, the numbers reverse to 46%-48%. That’s even while 52% of
Americans say Trump should be charged with a crime in any of the matters in
which he’s under federal investigation, similar to views after the storming of
the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

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See PDF for full results, charts and tables.

On issues, the survey finds broad opposition to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling
eliminating a constitutional right to abortion and a big Democratic advantage in
trust to handle the issue. But there's no sign it's impacting propensity to vote
in comparison with other issues: four rank higher in importance and two of them
-- the economy, overall, and inflation, specifically -- work strongly in the
GOP's favor.

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Biden and the midterms
The president's standing customarily is critical to his party's fortunes in
midterms -- and Biden is well under water. Thirty-nine percent of Americans
approve of his job performance while 53% disapprove, about where he's been
steadily the past year.

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Specifically on the economy, with inflation near a 40-year high, his approval
rating is 36% while 57% disapprove -- a 21-point deficit.

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Each election has its own dynamic but in midterm elections since 1946, when a
president has had more than 50% job approval, his party has lost an average of
14 seats. When the president's approval has been less than 50% -- as Biden's is
by a considerable margin now -- his party has lost an average of 37 seats.

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There's one slightly better result for Biden: 40% say he's accomplished a great
deal or a good amount as president, up from 35% last fall. This usually is a
tepid measure; it's averaged 43% across four presidents in 11 previous polls
since 1993.

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There's something else the Democrats can hang on to; their current results are
better than last November, when the Republicans led in national House vote
preferences by 10 percentage points, 51%-41% -- the largest midterm Republican
lead in ABC/Post polls dating back 40 years.

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It's true, too, that national House vote polling offers only a rough gauge of
ultimate seats won or lost, in what, after all, are local races, influenced by
incumbency, gerrymandering, candidate attributes and local as well as national
issues.

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techplanet.today/post/the-simpsons-34-1
techplanet.today/post/watch-the-simpsons-season-34-s34e1-episode-1-online-on-fox

Issues
The Democrats are not without ammunition in midterm campaigning: As noted,
Americans broadly reject the U.S. Supreme Court ruling eliminating the
constitutional right to an abortion -- 29% support it, with 64% opposed.
(Indeed, 53% strongly oppose it, compared with 21% strongly in support.)

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And the public trusts the Democratic Party over the Republican Party to handle
abortion by a wide 20 points. In another measure, while 31% say the Democratic
Party is too permissive on abortion, many more, 50%, say the GOP is too
restrictive.

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But if abortion keeps the Republicans from entirely nationalizing the election
around the economy, it doesn't defang the public's economic discontent.

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Seventy-four percent say the economy is in bad shape, up from 58% in the spring
after Biden took office. The GOP leads the Democrats by 16 points in trust to
handle the economy overall and by 19 points in trust to handle inflation.
Equally important, 84% call the economy a top issue in their vote for Congress
and 76% say the same about inflation. Many fewer, 62%, call abortion a top
issue.

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Other issues also differentiate the parties. In addition to the economy, the
Republicans can be expected to focus on crime in the campaigns' closing weeks;
they lead by 14 points in trust to handle it, and it's highly important to 69%.

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Democrats, in return, hold a wide 23-point advantage in trust to handle climate
change, though it's highly important to far fewer, 50%.

The parties run closely on two other issues -- education and schools, Democrats
+6, highly important to 77%; and immigration, essentially an even division,
highly important to 61%.

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When these are assessed as a combination of importance and party preference,
inflation and the economy top the list, followed by abortion, then climate
change, crime, education and immigration.

While inflation, the economy and abortion are marquee issues, one stands out for
another reason: The Republicans' 14-point advantage in trust to handle crime
matches its largest since 1991. Among independents, it's a whopping 34-point GOP
lead.

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More broadly, Americans divide evenly, 42-42%, on which party they trust more to
cope with the main problems the country faces in the next few years. This
compares with an average 5-point Democratic advantage on this question in more
than 100 ABC/Post surveys since 1982.

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A comparison with the 2018 midterms is instructive: Then, the public by 55-39%
preferred to see Congress controlled by the Democrats, to act as a check on
Trump, than by the Republicans, to support Trump's agenda. Today, 48% prefer a
Republican Congress, to act as a check on Biden; 45%, a Democratic one, to
support his agenda.

The fact that the Democrats don't trail significantly in views on party control
offers them some hope, as does their lead on the abortion issue. Historically,
though, given lower turnout, the Democrats need an advantage, not just parity,
in pre-election estimates.

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techplanet.today/post/joe-biden-and-seventy-two-percent-of-registered-voters
theamberpost.com/post/joe-biden-promise-66-say-voting-in-this-election-is-more-important
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Turnout
Seventy-two percent of registered voters say they're certain to vote in the
congressional election in their district; slightly more, 76%, said so in October
2018, a year in which turnout hit a postwar high for a midterm.

In another gauge, 66% say voting in this election is more important to them than
in past midterms, the same as in 2018.

Issues don't substantively differentiate intended turnout. For example, among
registered voters who call abortion a top issue, 75% say they're certain to
vote, while among those who call the economy a top issue, an almost-identical
74% say they'll vote.

Indeed, on abortion, supporters of the Supreme Court ruling are more apt than
its critics to say voting is more important to them in this election than in
previous midterms, 73% vs. 64%. Also, 76% of the ruling's supporters say they're
certain to vote, as are 70% of its opponents.

Intention to turn out is influenced by other factors. Among all adults, it's
considerably higher among whites -- 72% certain to vote -- than among Black
people (55%) or Hispanics (46%) -- a result that advantages Republicans, whose
support is strongest by far among whites.

  

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