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Text Content

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


NCEP: AWC · CPC · EMC · NCO · NHC · OPC · SPC · SWPC · WPC



 
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   NWS All NOAA

Hazard Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30 Excessive Rainfall No AreaNo AreaMarginal Heavy Snow
(≥ 4”)HighHighHigh Ice (≥ 0.25”)No AreaNo AreaNo Area

WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast
 
Winter Storm Severity Index
 
Experimental HeatRisk


 * Overview
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National Forecast Chart

Valid Mon Oct 28, 2024

Valid Tue Oct 29, 2024

Valid Wed Oct 30, 2024
 
 * Day 1
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Image Format:
English (PDF) (PDF) (PDF)
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Interactive Map

» Interactive National Forecast Chart
+ Additional Links
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 * » Product Archives
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WPC Top Stories:

Understanding WPC's Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories

View the Winter Storm Severity Index to see potential impacts from winter
weather

Looking for data from WPC products in a GIS format?

Check out the WPC interactive virtual tour!
North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
Analyzed at 15Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Analyzed at 18Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Analyzed at 21Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Analyzed at 00Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 03Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 06Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 09Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 12Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 15Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
 
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 * latest

Image Format:
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Satellite Composite
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Black and White
Fronts Only

Interactive Map

» Interactive Surface Map
» NWS Unified Surface Analysis
+ Additional Links
 * » Product Archives
 * » NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
 * » Other Surface Analysis Products

Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 15Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 18Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 00Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 06Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Oct 30, 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30, 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31, 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 01, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 02, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 03, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 04, 2024
 
 * 15ZMon
 *  18ZMon
 * 00ZTue
 * 06ZTue
 * 12ZTue
 * 00ZWed
 * 12ZWed
 *  12ZThu
 * 12ZFri
 * 12ZSat
 * 12ZSun
 * 12ZMon


+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

...Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies on
Tuesday...

...Temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of the
Plains and Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday...

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Great Basin and Southern
California will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great
Lakes southwestward to the Southern High Plains by Wednesday. Ahead of the
front, temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of
the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

In the wake of the front, onshore flow off the Pacific will produce rain
over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California through Tuesday night.
In addition, scattered light snow will develop over the highest elevations
of the Cascades, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the Northern Intermountain
Region, and the Great Basin through Wednesday. Lower-elevation rain will
also develop over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Northern/Central Rockies.

Further, intensifying upper-level energy over the Four Corners Region will
aid in producing moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central
Rockies and higher elevations of the eastern Great Basin on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
rain over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Monday. On Tuesday, the
atmosphere along the Western Gulf Coast will become more unstable, so
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Western Gulf
Coast. Similarly, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce rain over
parts of Florida on Monday. On Tuesday, the atmosphere will become more
unstable, so showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida.

Moreover, moist air will pool ahead of the front over the Great Lakes on
Monday, creating showers and thunderstorms. Rain will develop over parts
of the Northeast on Tuesday into Wednesday morning and also over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.

Additionally, moisture will pool along the boundary over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to Central/Southern Plains, producing
strong to severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley to Central/Southern Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024

...General Overview...

An initially energetic upper trough and moderate surface low will
lift northeastward from the Midwest through the Northeast
Thursday/Friday overtop a warm ambient upper ridge over the
eastern-southeastern U.S.. An associated cold front will swing
through the east-central to eastern U.S. to focus lingering showers
and thunderstorms and usher in moderating post-frontal high
pressure. The trailing portion of the front is forecast to
slow/dissipate, but remain a convective focus to eminate out from
the south-central U.S. with return flow. Meanwhile upstream, robust
Pacific upper trough energy digs sharply into an unsettled West,
with moderate rains and some elevation snows over the Northwest,
and more spotty activity furthern inland and down the coast across
California. This pattern may lead to closed trough/low development
near southern California/Baja. Warm and amplified subtropical
ridging over the Southeast may prove difficult to fully dislodge.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

A reduction of forecast spread in guidance over the past few
cycles has bolstered forecast confidence through medium range time
scales to above normal levels. Prefer a composite of the latest
models and best clustered ensemble means over time along with the
National Blend of Models to best emphasize the most predictable
forecast components at the expense of the least. This solution,
despite lingering associated forecast spread, does allow less
certain, but reasonable weekend closed low development near
southern California/Baja given favorable upstream upper ridge
amplitude. Overall, WPC product continuity is well maintained.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Ahead of a sharpening front, a long fetch of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico appears to initiate and support a lingering threat
of moderate to heavy rain over the lower the Mississippi Valley and
vicinity along with a possible severe weather threat holding into
Thursday. Maintained a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk
for this area, though the antecedent conditions are quite dry and
most of the rain will hopefully be beneficial.

The trailing portion of the front is then forecast to stall over
the southern Plains where moderate to heavy rainfall could
redevelop with ejecting impulses and instabilities. Accordingly, a
WPC ERO Marginal Risk has been introduced over the southern High
Plains to address potential. Expect activity focus will lift
northeastward and onward by next weekend as robust upper
trough/closed low energy digs upstream into the West Coast to re-
amplify the flow over the Lower 48 and vicinity. Precipitation
associated with the next Pacific system and long- fetch moisture is
forecast to re- focus into the West Coast later in the week and
into next weekend, with high- elevation snow reaching into the
northern Rockies and modest rains reaching down through California.
Here, rainfall could be heavier (per recent ECMWF AIFS trends)
should a slower/stronger solution verify. Regardless, the cold
frontal surge and possible closed low development at the southern
base of the main upper trough will bring in cooler temperatures to
much of the West to west-central U.S..

Upper ridging together with a pre-frontal long fetch of strong and
gusty southerly winds will transport warmth from the South through
the Northeast before moderating.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)


Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 00Z Tue Nov 05 2024

Guidance still indicates that deep pooled moisture may fuel some
enhanced showers and thunderstorms over the state today into
Tuesday under an upper low/weakness. A flood watch is in place in
the short term to address possible local runoff issues.
Predictability also seems above normal that high pressure will be
periodically reinforced while bridging to the north and settling
to the northeast of the state through the next week. This would
favor strengthened island trades and lead into a drier pattern
with mainly windward terrain favored showers. However, enhanced
shower activity may redevelop over the southern islands later week
pending influx and passage of deeper moisture associated with a
current eastern Pacific tropical disturbance being monitored.

Schichtel



+ Additional Links
 * » More Surface Analysis Products
 * » More Short Range Products
 * » More Medium Range Products

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/30/2024 - 12Z 10/31/2024
Valid 00Z 11/01/2024 - 00Z 11/02/2024
Valid 00Z 11/02/2024 - 00Z 11/03/2024
Valid 00Z 11/03/2024 - 00Z 11/04/2024
Valid 00Z 11/04/2024 - 00Z 11/05/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/31/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 11/02/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 11/04/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 00Z 10/29/2024
Valid 18Z 10/28/2024 - 06Z 10/29/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 06Z 10/29/2024 - 18Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
Valid 18Z 10/29/2024 - 06Z 10/30/2024
Valid 00Z 10/30/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 06Z 10/30/2024 - 18Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/30/2024 - 00Z 10/31/2024
Valid 18Z 10/30/2024 - 06Z 10/31/2024
Valid 00Z 10/31/2024 - 12Z 10/31/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 18Z 10/28/2024
Valid 18Z 10/28/2024 - 00Z 10/29/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 06Z 10/29/2024
Valid 06Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 18Z 10/29/2024
Valid 18Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
Valid 00Z 10/30/2024 - 06Z 10/30/2024
Valid 06Z 10/30/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/30/2024 - 18Z 10/30/2024
Valid 18Z 10/30/2024 - 00Z 10/31/2024
Valid 00Z 10/31/2024 - 06Z 10/31/2024
Valid 06Z 10/31/2024 - 12Z 10/31/2024
Valid 00Z 11/01/2024 - 00Z 11/03/2024
Valid 00Z 11/03/2024 - 00Z 11/05/2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7
 *  Total:  Day 1-2
 * Day 1-3
 * Day 1-5
 * Day 1-7

 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z
 * 06-18Z
 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z
 * 06-18Z
 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z

 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z
 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z
 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z

 * Day 4/5
 * Day 6/7

Image Options:
24 Hour/Multi Day QPF
12-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
6-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
48-Hour QPF (Day 4-5/6-7)

» Probabilistic QPF (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation
   Monitor




» View Probabilistic Precipitation Guidance (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation Monitor
+ Additional Links
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 * » Additional formats of QPF: GRIB 2 | Shapefiles | KML
 * » Other QPF Products

Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Interactive Page:
Valid 16Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 1 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 1 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 2 2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5


Interactive Page
+ Forecast Discussion


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Fracasso


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...

A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by
Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to
lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air
filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air
advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
across the central portion of the country; which in turn will
increase the potential for heavy rainfall and local areas of
concern for flooding. The inherited old Day 4 Marginal Risk area
was maintained with minor expansions across portions of Texas and
across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin to reflect the latest WPC QPF
and model trends. At this point there appears to be two distinct
areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first near the
juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders and the
second near the juncture of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois. Given the current FFG guidance and drier
antecedant conditions, a Marginal still seems most appropriate for
the level of risk. Should newer guidance continue to trend higher
an embedded Slight Risk may need to be considered as the event gets
closer.

Campbell

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024


Ahead of a sharpening front, a long fetch of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico appears to initiate and support a lingering threat
of moderate to heavy rain over the lower the Mississippi Valley and
vicinity along with a possible severe weather threat holding into
Thursday. Maintained a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk
for this area, though the antecedent conditions are quite dry and
most of the rain will hopefully be beneficial.

The trailing portion of the front is then forecast to stall over
the southern Plains where moderate to heavy rainfall could
redevelop with ejecting impulses and instabilities. Accordingly, a
WPC ERO Marginal Risk has been introduced over the southern High
Plains to address potential. Expect activity focus will lift
northeastward and onward by next weekend as robust upper
trough/closed low energy digs upstream into the West Coast to re-
amplify the flow over the Lower 48 and vicinity. Precipitation
associated with the next Pacific system and long- fetch moisture is
forecast to re- focus into the West Coast later in the week and
into next weekend, with high- elevation snow reaching into the
northern Rockies and modest rains reaching down through California.
Here, rainfall could be heavier (per recent ECMWF AIFS trends)
should a slower/stronger solution verify. Regardless, the cold
frontal surge and possible closed low development at the southern
base of the main upper trough will bring in cooler temperatures to
much of the West to west-central U.S..

Upper ridging together with a pre-frontal long fetch of strong and
gusty southerly winds will transport warmth from the South through
the Northeast before moderating.

Schichtel



Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024


Ahead of a sharpening front, a long fetch of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico appears to initiate and support a lingering threat
of moderate to heavy rain over the lower the Mississippi Valley and
vicinity along with a possible severe weather threat holding into
Thursday. Maintained a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk
for this area, though the antecedent conditions are quite dry and
most of the rain will hopefully be beneficial.

The trailing portion of the front is then forecast to stall over
the southern Plains where moderate to heavy rainfall could
redevelop with ejecting impulses and instabilities. Accordingly, a
WPC ERO Marginal Risk has been introduced over the southern High
Plains to address potential. Expect activity focus will lift
northeastward and onward by next weekend as robust upper
trough/closed low energy digs upstream into the West Coast to re-
amplify the flow over the Lower 48 and vicinity. Precipitation
associated with the next Pacific system and long- fetch moisture is
forecast to re- focus into the West Coast later in the week and
into next weekend, with high- elevation snow reaching into the
northern Rockies and modest rains reaching down through California.
Here, rainfall could be heavier (per recent ECMWF AIFS trends)
should a slower/stronger solution verify. Regardless, the cold
frontal surge and possible closed low development at the southern
base of the main upper trough will bring in cooler temperatures to
much of the West to west-central U.S..

Upper ridging together with a pre-frontal long fetch of strong and
gusty southerly winds will transport warmth from the South through
the Northeast before moderating.

Schichtel



+ Additional Links
 * » Product Info
 * » Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories
 * » Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology

Winter Weather Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/30/2024 - 12Z 10/31/2024
Valid 12Z 10/31/2024 - 12Z 11/01/2024
Valid 12Z 11/01/2024 - 12Z 11/02/2024
Valid 12Z 11/02/2024 - 12Z 11/03/2024
Valid 12Z 11/03/2024 - 12Z 11/04/2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 *  Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7
 * 
   

Day 1-3 Image Options:
Snowfall (≥ 4”)
Snowfall (≥ 8”)
Snowfall (≥ 12”)
Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)
Composite Charts

Interactive Map (Day 1-3)
Interactive Map (Day 4-7)
Winter Storm Severity Index
Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index
Experimental Winter
Storm Outlook

» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
» Winter Storm Severity Index
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)


Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024


...Western U.S....
Days 1-3...

An amplified upper trough moving across the western U.S. is
forecast to produce widespread mountain snow from the Pacific
Northwest and the Sierra Nevada to the northern and central
Rockies. Areas of heavy accumulations are expected, especially for
portions of the central Rockies on Tuesday.

A well-defined shortwave moving through the base of the upper
trough is expected to lift northeast from the Southwest through the
central Rockies on Tuesday. In addition to strong mid-to-upper
level forcing, upslope flow on the northwest side of an associated
low level wave moving across Wyoming, will likely support periods
of heavy snowfall along the favored terrain. Ranges that will be
impacted include the Wind River, southern Absaroka, and the Big
Horns. WPC probabilities are 50 percent or greater for
accumulations of 8 inches or more across parts of these areas.
Locally heavy snows are also likely in the Black Hills, with
amounts of 6 inches or more likely, according to WPC probabilities.

As the system lifts out of the Southwest, other areas impacted
will include the southwestern and west-central Colorado ranges,
including the San Juan and Elk mountains, where heavy heavy snows
are forecast to begin tonight, with storm totals, according to WPC
probabilities, likely reaching over a foot before snow diminishes
on Wednesday. Further west, widespread mountain snows are expected
along the Utah mountains as well, from the southern mountains to
the Uintas, with WPC probabilities indicating that locally heavy
amounts of 8 inches or more likely.

In the Northwest, onshore flow along the backside of the trough,
will continue to support unsettled weather across the region
through today. Snow levels will remain low enough to support light
accumulations along the higher Cascades passes. Snow is expected to
diminish on Tuesday as a shortwave ridge builds ahead of the next
approaching system. Precipitation will then return by late
Wednesday with the arrival of a frontal band associated with a deep
upper low dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring
the return of mountain snow to the Olympics and the Cascades and
the potential for impacts across the higher Cascades passes.

The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.

Pereira





+ Additional Links
 * » Experimental Winter Storm Outlook
 * » Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index
 * » Product Verification
 * » Product Archive
 * » Product Info
 * » Forecast Surface Low Positions: Uncertainty Circles | Ensemble Clusters
 * » Other Winter Weather Products

Medium Range Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31, 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 01, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 02, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 03, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 04, 2024
 
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7

Image Options:
Fronts
Max Temp (°F)
Max Temp Anomaly (°F)
Min Temp (°F)
Min Temp Anomaly (°F)
24-hr Pop(%)
500mb Heights

Day 3-7 Hazards
Additional Products

+ Forecast Discussion

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024

...General Overview...

An initially energetic upper trough and moderate surface low will
lift northeastward from the Midwest through the Northeast
Thursday/Friday overtop a warm ambient upper ridge over the
eastern-southeastern U.S.. An associated cold front will swing
through the east-central to eastern U.S. to focus lingering showers
and thunderstorms and usher in moderating post-frontal high
pressure. The trailing portion of the front is forecast to
slow/dissipate, but remain a convective focus to eminate out from
the south-central U.S. with return flow. Meanwhile upstream, robust
Pacific upper trough energy digs sharply into an unsettled West,
with moderate rains and some elevation snows over the Northwest,
and more spotty activity furthern inland and down the coast across
California. This pattern may lead to closed trough/low development
near southern California/Baja. Warm and amplified subtropical
ridging over the Southeast may prove difficult to fully dislodge.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

A reduction of forecast spread in guidance over the past few
cycles has bolstered forecast confidence through medium range time
scales to above normal levels. Prefer a composite of the latest
models and best clustered ensemble means over time along with the
National Blend of Models to best emphasize the most predictable
forecast components at the expense of the least. This solution,
despite lingering associated forecast spread, does allow less
certain, but reasonable weekend closed low development near
southern California/Baja given favorable upstream upper ridge
amplitude. Overall, WPC product continuity is well maintained.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Ahead of a sharpening front, a long fetch of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico appears to initiate and support a lingering threat
of moderate to heavy rain over the lower the Mississippi Valley and
vicinity along with a possible severe weather threat holding into
Thursday. Maintained a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk
for this area, though the antecedent conditions are quite dry and
most of the rain will hopefully be beneficial.

The trailing portion of the front is then forecast to stall over
the southern Plains where moderate to heavy rainfall could
redevelop with ejecting impulses and instabilities. Accordingly, a
WPC ERO Marginal Risk has been introduced over the southern High
Plains to address potential. Expect activity focus will lift
northeastward and onward by next weekend as robust upper
trough/closed low energy digs upstream into the West Coast to re-
amplify the flow over the Lower 48 and vicinity. Precipitation
associated with the next Pacific system and long- fetch moisture is
forecast to re- focus into the West Coast later in the week and
into next weekend, with high- elevation snow reaching into the
northern Rockies and modest rains reaching down through California.
Here, rainfall could be heavier (per recent ECMWF AIFS trends)
should a slower/stronger solution verify. Regardless, the cold
frontal surge and possible closed low development at the southern
base of the main upper trough will bring in cooler temperatures to
much of the West to west-central U.S..

Upper ridging together with a pre-frontal long fetch of strong and
gusty southerly winds will transport warmth from the South through
the Northeast before moderating.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

+ Additional Links
 * » Product Archive
 * » Product Info
 * » Day 3-7 Surface Composite
 * » Other Medium Range Products

Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)
 
Tools Generated at WPC
These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due
to workstation failure and/or data unavailability.
Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports


Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations
for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes
ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.

GEFS Probabilities


Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and
sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.

Local Storm Reports


Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports
include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant
information from storm spotters.

Extreme Precipitation Monitor


Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The
climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals
(ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.

Ensemble Situational Awareness Table


An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles,
and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required
to view ECMWF data).

*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network
can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.

NDFD Forecast Temperature Records


Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records
within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)
                                                                           
                                                                           
                                                                           

NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal


Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their
respective departures from climatology.

Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts


An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members
of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.

Weather in Context Prototype


Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a
forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool
is available for both CONUS and Alaska.

1/3/6/24-hr Changes


Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over
the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis
(RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).

Experimental HeatRisk


The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a
color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of
risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts
available out through 7 days.

Other Favorite Forecast Tools
CIPS Guidance


Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that
are similar to the upcoming forecast.

National Blend of Models


Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based
on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and
post-processed model guidance.

Atmospheric River Portal


A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the Center for
Western Weather and Water Extremes.

GEFS Plumes


An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a
point.

SPC Forecast Tools


A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

ECMWF Forecast Charts


Output from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including medium
range deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.



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