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Yahoo News


HOW A FEDERAL INDICTMENT COULD HELP TRUMP IN THE GOP PRIMARY — AND HURT HIM IN
THE GENERAL ELECTION


TRUMP COULD MAINTAIN HIS GRIP ON THE GOP THROUGH THE PRIMARY SEASON, EVEN AS THE
CASES AGAINST HIM PROCEED IN COURT AND THE PROSPECT OF PRISON TIME LOOMS.

Read full article
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 * Donald Trump
   
 * 

Alexander Nazaryan
·Senior White House Correspondent
Mon, June 12, 2023 at 4:37 PM CDT·5 min read

In this article:
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 * Donald Trump
   President of the United States from 2017 to 2021
   



Donald Trump on his way to the New York Attorney General's Office for a
deposition in a civil investigation, Aug. 10, 2022. (Julia Nikhinson/AP)

For much of the past winter, Donald Trump’s presidential campaign plodded along
with little energy, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis increasingly seemed like the
mainstream choice for the GOP nomination.

Then came Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment of Trump on
charges of financial fraud related to a payment he had made several years before
to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

Suddenly, conservatives rallied to Trump’s side. And they have stayed with him
ever since, even as other candidates have entered the race, giving voters plenty
of other options. Trump is now the Republican frontrunner by a wide margin.



Last week’s federal indictment on 37 counts related to Trump’s handling of
classified documents is more serious than the Manhattan case, and, if convicted,
could send Trump to prison for more than a century.

Yet as grave as those charges are, could the new indictment actually help Trump
politically?

Read more from our partners: Senate GOP leaders break with House on Trump
indictment


INDICTMENTS ARE BAD …


Special counsel Jack Smith speaking with reporters on Friday. (Jose Luis
Magana/AP)

Trump is the first former president to be indicted on federal charges. Special
counsel Jack Smith has promised a “speedy trial,” which will likely take place
as Trump tries to cement his standing as the GOP frontrunner for the Republican
presidential nomination.

If national politics is a game of inches, how can a federal indictment that
includes photographs of secret documents stored in a bathroom amount to anything
less than a 37-yard penalty?

“I don’t know if it will make a difference in the political landscape, but it
certainly seems pretty bad,” a Senate Republican aide told The Hill. Another GOP
staffer mused that Smith’s indictment could be the “silver bullet” that ends
Trump’s third White House run.

A recent poll by Yahoo News and YouGov found that 62% of Americans do not want
Trump to serve a second term if he is convicted of a crime. Given the strength
of Smith’s evidence (photographs, audio recordings, text messages), such a
conviction is entirely possible — and maybe even likely.

Story continues

Read more from our partners: From the Ballot Box to the Jury Box, South Florida
Voters Ponder Trump


…EXCEPT WHEN IT COMES TO THE GOP PRIMARY


Then-President Donald Trump at the "Stop the Steal" rally on Jan. 6, 2021.
(Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

Even before the federal indictment, Trump was a twice-impeached former president
who many believe incited the deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

In addition to the Manhattan and federal indictments, he is facing potential
charges in Georgia for attempting to meddle with the state’s results in the 2020
presidential election.

To his supporters, none of that seems to matter. Earlier this year, pollsters
found that about 30% of the GOP electorate said that they supported Trump more
than the Republican Party itself.

Many of Trump’s supporters have an emotional, even spiritual, identification
with the president that has little to do with policy. During two political
rallies over the weekend, Trump described the indictment as an attack on his
supporters.

“In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you — and I’m
just standing in their way,” he said in Georgia. The grievance-heavy message was
potent in 2016, and could be again in 2024.

“This is more of a movement than a person,” a Republican in South Carolina told
USA Today. No matter how damning, the indictment may well fail to break Trump’s
bond with his supporters. After all, nothing else has.

Read more from our partners: What to Expect When Trump Is Charged in the
Documents Case on Tuesday


OTHER CANDIDATES ARE AT A LOSS


Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at the North Carolina Republican Party Convention in
Greensboro, N.C., on Friday. (Chuck Burton/AP)

Even if federal prosecutors move quickly, a trial could be months away.

In the meantime, Trump’s challengers for the GOP primary have a
close-to-impossible task before them: They need to reassure his supporters that
they stand with the embattled former president. At the same time, they also have
to convince those voters to vote for them instead of Trump.

The last several days have been a preview of how difficult that might be. Former
Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson bluntly said that the indictment disqualified Trump
from ever setting foot in the Oval Office again, while former New Jersey Gov.
Chris Christie called the charges "devastating."

But they are both polling in the low single digits and have little to lose.

Candidates with better chances at the nomination have done their best to
acknowledge the gravity of the situation without actually blaming Trump.
DeSantis railed against “weaponizing the power of the state” without mentioning
Trump by name; Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, a favorite of the GOP
establishment, said mostly the same thing on Fox News.

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, went slightly further than
DeSantis and Scott, judging Trump “incredibly reckless” — if the indictment "is
true."

Read more from our partners: The 2024 GOP Field Faces a Choice: Law and Order or
Loyalty


PERIL IN THE GENERAL ELECTION


Supporters of former US President Donald Trump during a caravan outside the
Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, US, on Sunday, June 11, 2023. The
federal charges against Trump will test his supporters' tolerance for the
growing scandals weighing on his White House comeback bid, as Republican rivals
look to wrest the 2024 nomination from the former president. Photographer: Eva
Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg

Trump could maintain his grip on the Republican Party through the primary
season, even as the cases against him proceed in court and the prospect of
prison time looms.

But then will come the general election — and, potentially, new troubles. A
recent poll of Utah voters found that 51% of independents would be less likely
to vote for Trump because of the indictment. Unlike the GOP faithful, many of
them see no reason to stand by a man who could soon be a convicted felon.

“For people who were on the fence about Trump, this may push them away. Enough
of the chaos and craziness,” one influential Republican donor told the
Associated Press.

So far, Biden has said nothing about the indictment, insisting that the
Department of Justice should work in complete independence. But if he is to face
Trump in the general election, his message could be relatively straightforward:
Vote for the guy who definitely isn’t going to prison.

Read more from our partners: 'If you want to die in jail, keep talking' — two
national security law experts discuss the special treatment for Trump and offer
him some advice




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