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THE ECONOMIST: THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE US ECONOMY

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By elaine@wcn-online.com
on April 10, 2024

By Dr. M. Ray Perryman


Audio articles on Wilson County News made possible by C Street Gift Shop in
downtown Floresville!




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The US economy continues to defy the expectations of many, gaining jobs at a
surprising pace given the challenges that seem to pop up constantly. Barring a
major setback, we should see the expansionary pattern continue (possibly with
some bumps along the way). Here’s a brief look at my latest projections for the
US economy and factors affecting likely performance.



Inflation is not completely tamed, but the economy is in a much better position
than a year ago. The last increase in target interest rates by the Federal
Reserve was last summer, and there remains clear indications that cuts will
begin in the next few months. The timing is somewhat dependent on data being
released in the near future, as the Fed remains focused on its dual mandate of
promoting maximum employment and stable prices. The most recent job increases
and commodity costs may push back the timeline to some extent, but not for an
extended period.

The number of US job openings remains high, though down from those in the early
stages of the pandemic recovery; many industries continue to experience severe
shortages. While the major COVID-related dislocations in the labor market have
largely eased, long-term demographic trends are pointing toward ongoing
challenges for the foreseeable future. Solutions will involve a range of
options, such as artificial intelligence (AI), automation, and other capital
investments, as well as enhanced workforce training and even childcare
availability. Sensible immigration reform (while simultaneously protecting the
border) will also be required.

While the current outlook embodies both positive and negative factors over the
next five years, I anticipate that the US economy will expand at a relatively
healthy pace. Growth has persisted despite challenges ranging from the Federal
Reserve’s efforts to slow inflation to major geopolitical tensions around the
world to addressing the many challenges emanating from the pandemic. At present,
it appears as if the elusive soft landing may have already been achieved, though
future events could certainly cause disruptions.

The Perryman Group’s latest projections indicate increases in US real gross
domestic product at a 2.65% annual pace over the 2023-2028 period. Total
employment is projected to grow by approximately 13.9 million net new positions,
an annual increase of 1.72%. Performance will likely be below these thresholds
in 2024, with momentum building over time.

Uncertainty will remain high due to the situations in the Middle East, Ukraine,
Venezuela, the Red Sea, and elsewhere. A major escalation could lead to higher
energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and other potential headwinds. We also
must confront the quadrennial gyrations of election year politics. Nonetheless,
the economy is on much more solid ground than in the not-too-distant past, and
the underlying fundamentals sustain moderate expansion. Stay safe!

_

Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman
Group.

 



NOTE: Comments posted to this blog page are for information only. The opinions
of the author are not necessarily the opinions of this newspaper, its staff or
its advertisers.





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