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DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS


US 10-YEAR TREASURIES CLIMBED AS CHINA LIFTED THE VISITOR QUARANTINE

DECEMBER 28, 2022

US stocks fall to start the final week of 2022 trading. Tesla Inc. shares led to
losses as a report of a plan to temporarily halt production at its China factory
rekindled fears about demand risks. Besides, Apple Inc. touched the lowest since
June 2021 amid a slump in big tech. Moreover, Southwest Airlines Co. led
declines in airline stocks after cancelling flights, hobbled by a massive winter
storm that battered the US.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed 10 basis points to the highest since
mid-November, as China moved to end the quarantine for inbound visitors.



The benchmark, the S&P 500 fell with 0.40% daily losses with trading about 20%
below the 30-day average. Six of eleven sectors of the S&P500 stayed in the
negative territory, and the Consumer Discretion section got the worst
performance among all groups, recording 1.64% losses daily. Apart from this, the
tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed, dropping more than 1%. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average surprisingly edged higher by 0.1%, and the MSCI world index
moved lower by 0.1% for the day.





Main Pairs Movement

The US Dollar index edged lower on Tuesday, as trading volume is low with
investors just coming back from the Christmas holidays. The DXY index hovered in
a narrow range from 103.9 to 104.4 during the first trading day of the last week
of this year.

The GBPUSD stayed on the defensive since the UK trading session, with China
announcing earlier in the day that it will lift quarantine obligations for
travellers from January 8 as part of its reopening efforts. The pair dropped
around 0.78% in the period of European trading hours. In the meantime, the
EURUSD was pricing with wild moves on Tuesday. The pair dropped hugely ahead of
the US trading hour but managed to erase most losses and ended with a 0.03%
daily gain.

The gold is benefiting from recent positive headlines surrounding Beijing.
China’s easing of the Coronavirus-linked activity restrictions joined an upward
revision to the 2021 GDP forecast to favour gold bulls amid a sluggish holiday
season. The XAUUSD surged and once climbed above the $1830 mark in the early
American trading session, then pullback and ended with a 0.86% daily gain on
Tuesday.



Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)



EURUSD edged higher on the first day of the holiday-shortened trading week. The
Euro fared better against the Dollar as market participants continue to sell the
Greenback while U.S. interest rate expectations trim lower. Furthermore, the
Dallas Fed’s December Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey indicates a further
drawdown of business activity and demand, thus prompting market participants to
ditch the U.S. Greenback as markets lower interest rate expectations from the
Fed. The lowered business activity indicator furthers the recession rhetoric as
markets brace for pending economic slowdown. On the economic docket, no major
data releases are scheduled for the E.U., while the U.S. will release its
pending home sales figures during today’s American trading session.

On the technical side, EURUSD continues to trade below our previously estimated
resistance level of 1.065, but the pair has witnessed a steady upward momentum
over the past four days. A new short-term support level around the 1.0585 price
region. RSI for the pair sits at 56.95, as of writing. On the four-hour chart,
EURUSD currently trades above its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.0650, 1.0695

Support: 1.0580, 1.0500, 1.0459, 1.0228


GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)



GBPUSD edged lower on the first trading day of the week. Cable has been trading
extremely range-bound over the past 3 trading sessions as the year ends. The
British Pound continues to be plagued by the U.K.’s economic outlook and
inflation; however, losses for Cable should be contained as no significant
market-moving news is scheduled before 2023. The U.S. Greenback has shown
weakness over the holiday weekend as China loosened its Covid restrictions and
prompted a gain for the CNY. The Dollar index lost 0.2% throughout Tuesday’s
trading. While the U.S. 10-year treasury yield has resumed above 3.8%, market
participants are not piling into U.S. treasury bonds as they expect flows to
favour the equity market. On the economic docket, the U.K. has no significant
news scheduled for the 28th, while the U.S. will release its pending home sales
figures for November during the American trading session.

On the technical side, GBPUSD continues to trade below our previously estimated
resistance level of 1.232. A steady downward trend has formed for Cable over the
past week. The short-term support level for Cable remains at around the 1.19 and
1.176 price region. RSI for the pair sits at 43.51, as of writing. On the
four-hour chart, GBPUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.2320, 1.2600

Support: 1.19, 1.176



XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)



After dropping toward $1,800 in the early American session on Tuesday, yellow
metal prices hiked nearly 1.9% up to a fresh December high of $1,833 during the
intraday trading. The markets’ atmosphere started the week in an optimistic mood
amid news from China, which is the biggest country producing gold, indicating
that the local government will focus on economic growth, further moving away
from its zero-covid policy. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds
positive territory above 3.8% but does little to nothing to derail the gold
price’s rally.

On the technical side, according to the four-hour chart, technical indicators
head north almost vertically, although the Momentum stands at neutral levels,
while the RSI is near overbought readings. At the same time, XAUUSD has
accelerated north after meeting buyers around a flat 20 SMA, currently at
$1,805, which remains above the longer ones. RSI sits at 64.28 as of writing. On
the four-hour chart, gold price trades above its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance levels: 1833, 1845, 1864

Support levels: 1812, 1805, 1792, 1785



Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)ForecastUSDPending Home Sales (Nov)23:00-0.8%

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