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March 21, 2023
FINAL WARNING: THE KEY THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM THE IPCC’S SIXTH ASSESSMENT
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just concluded its
sixth assessment cycle, releasing the long awaited Synthesis Report. Throughout
this mammoth undertaking, the world’s best scientists have done everything
humanly possible to understand and communicate the danger we’re in and to show
us a pathway out of it.
HERE ARE THE KEY THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM THE IPCC’S SIXTH ASSESSMENT AND
WHAT WE’VE LEARNED FROM EACH OF ITS REPORTS, BROUGHT TOGETHER IN THE SYNTHESIS
REPORT.
In short: we have reached a precipice and we simply must get out of fossil fuels
and get our emissions plummeting. At the same time, we need to step up efforts
to adapt to the dangers that, owing to past inaction, are now coming at us no
matter what. Finally, the good part, yes – we have the solutions (!) but the
pace of progress has been far too slow and it’s time to give it everything we’ve
got. Now and through this make-or-break decade.
Before we unpack things any further, let’s recap on some basics.
WHAT IS THE IPCC?
The IPCC is the most authoritative international body on climate science. The
IPCC was established in 1988 and is an essential component of the world’s
response to climate change. Its Assessment Reports – published every five to
eight years – have been a driving force for action, influencing international
agreements.
HANG ON… HAVEN’T THERE BEEN A BUNCH OF IPCC REPORTS RECENTLY?
Yep! In fact, this is the fourth report to be published by the IPCC in the past
year and a bit.
The reason for this is that the IPCC has been working steadily on its Sixth
Assessment Report (AR6), which is the most comprehensive review of the state of
knowledge on climate change ever completed. There have been three reports – the
contributions from each of the IPCC’s working groups – leading up to this
Synthesis Report.
WHAT MAKES UP THE SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT?
PART 1:
Released in October 2021, the first part of the AR6 drew together all the latest
science on how our climate system works and how we’re affecting it. It showed us
that to avoid catastrophe, global emissions need to be roughly halved this
decade. No ifs. No buts.
PART 2:
In February 2022, the second instalment of the AR6 was released, which looked at
the impacts of climate change, what they mean for us and Earth’s ecosystems. It
showed we must drastically step up efforts to adapt to cope with the impacts we
are experiencing today and will face tomorrow. At the same time we must do
everything possible to get emissions down fast (see Part 1), as unless we do
that we’ll be setting ourselves up for a future to which it is impossible to
adapt.
PART 3:
The third and final substantial instalment was released in April 2022, which
looked at how we can get our emissions plummeting this decade and avoid future
harm as much as possible. It affirmed yet again that we must roughly halve
global emissions by 2030, that we need to move swiftly beyond fossil fuels, and
that every fraction of a degree of avoided warming matters. And it showed that
it can be done. Albeit with a mammoth, transformative, all-of-society effort.
PART 4:
The Synthesis Report is the last in the series, and summarises the three
substantive reports – that run to a total of over 10,000 pages – into a simple,
easy to digest whole.
With action this decade being absolutely critical to a liveable future, the
information contained in the Sixth Assessment Report is our last and best hope
of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. If we have not taken very
significant action by the time the Seventh Assessment Report is finalised around
the end of this decade, we will be in very serious trouble indeed.
WHAT ARE THE TOP 10 TAKEAWAYS FROM THE SYNTHESIS REPORT?
1. HUMANS HAVE PERMANENTLY CHANGED THE PLANET
Is now an established fact that humans have altered the climate – primarily
through the burning of coal, oil and gas – and that this has increased the
frequency and intensity of many weather extremes, driven sea level rise, and
damaged the critical ecosystems on which we depend. Rapid and widespread changes
have occurred, and more impacts are locked in.
2. WARMING IS ALREADY KILLING PEOPLE, DESTROYING NATURE, AND WIDENING INEQUALITY
Climate change is already driving widespread losses and damages to communities
and nature. It is impacting us all, though those least responsible for the
crisis, and with the fewest resources to cope with these new stresses, are being
hit first and hardest.
3. THERE IS STILL MUCH WE CAN DO TO LIMIT FUTURE HARMS
Although some changes in the climate system are now irreversible because of
warming caused by historical greenhouse gas emissions, some impacts can be
slowed or even avoided. With every fraction of a degree of avoided warming, we
will be reducing the risk of extreme weather and other impacts of climate change
in the future.
4. WE MUST WORK HARDER TO ADAPT TO THE IMPACTS THAT ARE HERE NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ESCALATE
We can limit harm by building the resilience of our communities, increasing
disaster preparedness, and, in particular, by supporting the most vulnerable
communities in Australia, our region and beyond. But this is no substitute for
doing everything possible to reduce emissions.
5. PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE, BUT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH
While progress has been made globally to reduce emissions and tackle climate
change, there is still an extraordinary gap between the path that the world is
currently on, and what the science says is required to limit harms to present
and future generations.
Most of the progress and pledges that have been made to date have been
incremental. As a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions over recent
decades – at a time where we needed to begin the process of permanent and
immediate emissions reductions – transformative action across all areas is
required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
6. WE HAVE VIRTUALLY ALL THE SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW, WE JUST NEED TO ROLL THEM OUT
We already know what is required to deeply, permanently and immediately reduce
emissions to prevent untold suffering, and most of the technologies required to
do so in the short-and medium-term are available and viable today.
7. FOSSIL FUELS HAVE GOT TO GO
The world is already feeling the impact of past greenhouse gas emissions. Fossil
fuel infrastructure already installed and operational is sufficient to make the
world a much harder place to live over coming decades. Avoiding the worst of
climate change means abandoning plans for further fossil fuel expansion and
going all in on transforming our energy system, including the managed phase-out
of existing coal, oil and gas facilities.
8. THE COSTS OF INACTION FAR OUTWEIGH THE COSTS OF ACTION
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require substantial investment. However,
even before considering the economic benefits of avoiding catastrophic climate
harm, the total cost of the investments required are likely to be no more than
the costs that fossil fuels places on the global economy today through things
like the health impact of air pollution. This means that much of the upfront
cost of reducing emissions will be paid for very quickly by reduced health
costs.
9. WE CAN STILL TURN THIS AROUND
The decisions we make today will profoundly impact the lives, security and
wellbeing of people alive today and countless generations to come. We have the
power to change the trajectory of the earth system today, but this power
diminishes with each passing year, and we are running out of time.
10. THIS IS OUR ‘LAST CHANCE’ DECADE
This latest IPCC report makes it clear that we have almost run out of time. Our
window to avoid the worst of climate change is rapidly closing. So the decisions
we choose to make now, this year, and over the coming decade will make a world
of difference to our health, well being and economic future. By the time the
Seventh Assessment Report comes around, we may have locked ourselves into a much
worse future. We must consider this our last warning.
SO, WHAT NOW?
While no developed country has more to lose from climate change-fuelled extreme
weather, no one has more to gain as the world transforms to a zero-carbon
economy than Australia does. Australia has enough sun and wind to be a world
leader in renewable energy, as well as in industries such as clean
manufacturing, minerals processing and renewable hydrogen. Generations of
Australians could work in these clean industries, reducing Australia’s emissions
while helping the wider world to reduce emissions as well.
We know what is required to deeply, permanently and immediately reduce
emissions, and Australia should be surging ahead with these solutions and
creating a healthy, kinder, happier future for all.
In short, globally, we are a very long way from where we need to be, and after a
lost decade, Australia has a lot of catching up to do.
The report could not come at a more important time in Australia. The Government
is finalising the rules that will require the country’s biggest polluters to
finally start cutting their emissions. It’s vital that the reform of the
Safeguard Mechanism requires companies to make genuine emissions reductions and
fast, that it doesn’t allow them to try and ‘offset’ their way out of trouble,
and that we do not leave the door open to new coal and gas.
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know from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment
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