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OUTLOOK Q1 2020: SLOWING BUT GOING





Important information is available at the end of this page

Outlook Q1 2020 PDF
Outlook 2020 PDF


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HOUSE VIEW

1 January 2020


TILTING TO RISK-ON TILTING TO RISK-ON

Equities and credit are now moderately overweight, while government bonds have
been downgraded to neutral. European and UK equities should benefit from lower
political risk, loose monetary policy a...

Equities and credit are now moderately overweight, while government bonds have
been downgraded to neutral. European and UK equities should benefit from lower
political risk, loose monetary policy and some de-escalation in global trade
tensions. In credit, China and Asia high yield offer attractiv...

PDF

Asset Class Near term


NEAR TERM

VIEW:

Strongly negative
Mildly negative
Neutral
Mildly positive
Strongly positive

We define our 'Near Term' view as 3-6 months.


CHANGE:


Upgraded
— Unchanged

Downgraded
Change since the last outlook
× Close

VIEW:

Strongly negative
Mildly negative
Neutral
Mildly positive
Strongly positive

We define our 'Near Term' view as 3-6 months.


CHANGE:


Upgraded
— Unchanged

Downgraded

Change since the last outlook
Medium term


MEDIUM TERM

VIEW:

Strongly negative
Mildly negative
Neutral
Mildly positive
Strongly positive

We define our 'Medium Term' view as 12-18 months.


CHANGE:


Upgraded
— Unchanged

Downgraded
Change since the last outlook
× Close

VIEW:

Strongly negative
Mildly negative
Neutral
Mildly positive
Strongly positive

We define our 'Medium Term' view as 12-18 months.


CHANGE:


Upgraded
— Unchanged

Downgraded

Change since the last outlook
Equities


Government Bonds


Credit


EM debt
—
—
Cash
—
—

Read more


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

1 January 2020


MARKETS BETTING ON 2020 GROWTH REBOUND: WE BROADLY AGREE MARKETS BETTING ON 2020
GROWTH REBOUND: WE BROADLY AGREE

With key headwinds from last year reversing, even in the face of ongoing
US-China uncertainty, there is a basis for expecting continued recovery and
global growth compared with Q4 2018. Overall, th...

With key headwinds from last year reversing, even in the face of ongoing
US-China uncertainty, there is a basis for expecting continued recovery and
global growth compared with Q4 2018. Overall, the Fidelity Leading Indicator
(FLI) suggests that global bond yields should rise from their current d...

PDF

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MULTI ASSET

1 January 2020


DON’T FIGHT THE FED, BUT REFLATION LOOKS SHAKY DON’T FIGHT THE FED, BUT
REFLATION LOOKS SHAKY

In some of our portfolios, managers are choosing to hold ‘taper tantrum
insurance’ in the form of exposure to financials that should outperform in the
event of monetary tightening. Despite the flat...

In some of our portfolios, managers are choosing to hold ‘taper tantrum
insurance’ in the form of exposure to financials that should outperform in the
event of monetary tightening. Despite the flat yield curve - typically a bad
sign for banks - this position hedges against the risk of central ban...

PDF

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FIXED INCOME

9 January 2020


EXPECTATIONS MUST BE MODERATED EXPECTATIONS MUST BE MODERATED

We are positive on US government bonds to guard against sell offs in risk
markets. The underwhelming quantitative easing package from the European Central
Bank should mean that spreads widen betwee...

We are positive on US government bonds to guard against sell offs in risk
markets. The underwhelming quantitative easing package from the European Central
Bank should mean that spreads widen between semi-core countries and Germany.

PDF

Read more


EQUITIES

1 January 2020


THE PROMISE OF EARNINGS GROWTH THE PROMISE OF EARNINGS GROWTH

Despite favourable news on US-China trade and global monetary policy easing, the
economic backdrop remains uncertain. Such an environment favours more defensive,
growth companies. However, if the m...

Despite favourable news on US-China trade and global monetary policy easing, the
economic backdrop remains uncertain. Such an environment favours more defensive,
growth companies. However, if the macro outlook does become more supportive, and
if we see a shift from monetary to fiscal stimulus, we...

PDF

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REAL ESTATE

1 January 2020


PENT-UP DEMAND KEEPS YIELDS LOW PENT-UP DEMAND KEEPS YIELDS LOW

Real estate will continue to be favourably viewed in a multi-asset portfolio for
its attractive pricing and income, but the recent softening of economic growth
and the escalation of external downsi...

Real estate will continue to be favourably viewed in a multi-asset portfolio for
its attractive pricing and income, but the recent softening of economic growth
and the escalation of external downside risks call for a more tailored approach
to late-cycle investing. Being selective and actively ass...

PDF

Read more

UPDATES

Equities

CHART ROOM: AN INFLECTION POINT FOR CHINESE EQUITIES?

By Paras Anand

9 September 2021

Fixed Income

ASIA EYES A TANTRUM-FREE TAPER THIS TIME

By Nathan Sribalasundaram, Eric Wong, Giselle Lai and Bob Chen

7 September 2021

Equities

A PODIUM MOMENT FOR JAPAN’S MARKETS, TOO?

By Paras Anand

29 August 2021


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