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Submission: On October 23 via api (October 23rd 2024, 11:10:10 am UTC) from US — Scanned from DE

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Text Content

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


NCEP: AWC · CPC · EMC · NCO · NHC · OPC · SPC · SWPC · WPC



 
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   NWS All NOAA

Hazard Oct 23Oct 24Oct 25 Excessive Rainfall No AreaNo AreaNo Area Heavy Snow (≥
4”)SlightNo AreaNo Area Ice (≥ 0.25”)No AreaNo AreaNo Area

WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast
 
Winter Storm Severity Index
 
Experimental HeatRisk


 * Overview
 * Surface Analysis
 * Fronts
 * QPF
 * Excessive Rain
 * Winter Wx
 * Day 3–7
 * Forecast Tools

National Forecast Chart

Valid Wed Oct 23, 2024

Valid Thu Oct 24, 2024

Valid Fri Oct 25, 2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3

Image Format:
English (PDF) (PDF) (PDF)
Español (PDF) (PDF) (PDF)

Interactive Map

» Interactive National Forecast Chart
+ Additional Links
 * » Description of the National Forecast Chart
 * » Product Archives
 * » Download hazards in KML or shapefile format or GeoJSON format

WPC Top Stories:

Understanding WPC's Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories

View the Winter Storm Severity Index to see potential impacts from winter
weather

Looking for data from WPC products in a GIS format?

Check out the WPC interactive virtual tour!
North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
Analyzed at 09Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 12Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 15Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 18Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 21Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 00Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Analyzed at 03Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Analyzed at 06Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Analyzed at 09Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
 
 * -24 hr
 * -21 hr
 * -18 hr
 * -15 hr
 * -12 hr
 * -9 hr
 * -6 hr
 * -3 hr
 * latest

Image Format:
Standard
Satellite Composite
Radar Composite
Black and White
Fronts Only

Interactive Map

» Interactive Surface Map
» NWS Unified Surface Analysis
+ Additional Links
 * » Product Archives
 * » NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
 * » Other Surface Analysis Products

Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 09Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 18Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 00Z Thu Oct 24, 2024
Valid 06Z Thu Oct 24, 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24, 2024
Valid 00Z Fri Oct 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30, 2024
 
 * 09ZWed
 *  12ZWed
 * 18ZWed
 * 00ZThu
 * 06ZThu
 * 12ZThu
 * 00ZFri
 * 12ZFri
 *  12ZSat
 * 12ZSun
 * 12ZMon
 * 12ZTue
 * 12ZWed


+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024

...Very pleasant weather continues across most of the country through the
end of the week...

...Well above-average temperatures continue over the Central and Eastern
U.S...


A quiet and relatively uneventful fall weather pattern will be in place
across the continental U.S. through early Friday, with high pressure
keeping mainly sunny skies in place across the Central and Eastern U.S.
and the very pleasant conditions continuing. Temperatures will once again
be quite mild and feel more like September across much of the East Coast
region on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, which will herald the arrival
of more autumnal temperatures for Thursday with highs falling 10 to 20
degrees for many areas from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Even
warmer conditions are likely for the central and southern Plains to close
out the work week, with highs running up to 20 degrees above normal for
late October, with the potential for a few record highs.

In terms of precipitation prospects, some light showers are possible
across portions of the Great Lakes region and into New England ahead of
the cold front where forcing for ascent will be greatest, and remaining
dry farther to the south given a paucity of moisture and lack of dynamics.
A second area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is likely for the
Midwest states ahead of the next cold front dropping south across the
Northern Plains on Thursday and into Thursday night. There may also be a
few showers in easterly flow across the Florida Peninsula. Out West, some
showers and high elevation snow are expected from eastern Oregon to the
Northern Rockies with a shortwave upper trough moving through the region.

The combination of very warm conditions, dry grounds, and increased winds
across the Central Plains will raise the potential for wildfires, based on
the SPC fire weather outlook on Thursday. The same holds true for
portions of southern New England on Wednesday.

Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

...General Overview...

Predominantly zonal flow across the lower 48 at the beginning of
the period (this weekend) will give way to a more amplified pattern
toward the end. A closed upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will
fill and dig into the West Coast of the CONUS this weekend. This
system will bring cool temperatures, rain and snow to the Northwest
U.S. through early next week before developing a threat for heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms over parts of the central U.S. by mid-
week. A pronounced downstream ridge will generate above average
temperatures across the Plains and Mississippi Valley beginning
Monday.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models are in reasonable agreement regarding the overall synoptic
pattern across the CONUS during the medium range period. The
deterministic Euro and GFS guidance have trended slower with the
digging East Pacific trough next week, while the ensemble means
still have some timing spread. There's pretty good clustering of
the ensembles on the depth of the trough, though.

On days 3 and 4 a general model blend consisting of equal parts 12z
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET and 18z GFS were utilized due to the predominantly
zonal flow across the lower 48 and large ridge over the southern
tier states/northern Mexico. The 12z ECE/CMCE and 18z GEFS were
introduced to the blend on day 5 and continued through the end of
the period to mitigate some deterministic solutions that signal the
formation of a closed mid-level low over the Four Corners region
by mid-week. There's some signal for another split flow pattern
over the central U.S. on day 7.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A cold front, associated with a closed mid-level low over the Gulf
of Alaska, will focus rain and high elevation mountain snow
showers across much of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
this weekend. Snow showers will remain confined to the northern
Cascades and Olympic Mountains before expanding into the southern
Cascades and Northern Rockies on Sunday, the northern Sierra and
Yellowstone/Absarokas on Monday and Colorado Rockies by Tuesday.
Beneath the upper trough, temperatures will be well below average.
Portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West may experience
minimum temperature anomalies between 10-20 degrees below average
from Monday to Wednesday.

Cyclogenesis is likely to occur on the lee side of the Rockies
while the digging upper-trough pulls moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms may focus
along a cold front slowly propagating through the central U.S..
There's some signal for a heavy rain event to unfold over parts of
the Lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest mid-week, due to
the slow moving upper-level trough.

An upper ridge over the southern and central U.S. will promote
above average temperatures across portions of the Great Plains and
Upper Midwest beginning this weekend. Parts of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest will experience positive temperature anomalies
between 10-20 degrees above average.

Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)


Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 24 2024 - 00Z Thu Oct 31 2024

A dipole of closed mid-level lows stationed north of the islands
will begin separating on Thursday while a bit of the eastern low
breaks off and inverts over the state this weekend. Some
sub-tropical moisture will make its way into the state, but most
of the associated rainfall will remain confined to The Big Island.
Surface high pressure will arrive over the Central Pacific north
of the state later this weekend and reestablish the dominant trade
winds over Hawaii going into next week.

Kebede



+ Additional Links
 * » More Surface Analysis Products
 * » More Short Range Products
 * » More Medium Range Products

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/26/2024 - 12Z 10/27/2024
Valid 12Z 10/27/2024 - 12Z 10/28/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/28/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 18Z 10/23/2024 - 06Z 10/24/2024
Valid 00Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 06Z 10/24/2024 - 18Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 18Z 10/24/2024 - 06Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 06Z 10/25/2024 - 18Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 00Z 10/26/2024
Valid 18Z 10/25/2024 - 06Z 10/26/2024
Valid 00Z 10/26/2024 - 12Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 18Z 10/23/2024
Valid 18Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 00Z 10/24/2024 - 06Z 10/24/2024
Valid 06Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 18Z 10/24/2024
Valid 18Z 10/24/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/25/2024 - 06Z 10/25/2024
Valid 06Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 18Z 10/25/2024
Valid 18Z 10/25/2024 - 00Z 10/26/2024
Valid 00Z 10/26/2024 - 06Z 10/26/2024
Valid 06Z 10/26/2024 - 12Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/26/2024 - 12Z 10/28/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7
 *  Total:  Day 1-2
 * Day 1-3
 * Day 1-5
 * Day 1-7

 * 12-00Z
 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z
 * 06-18Z
 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z
 * 06-18Z
 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z

 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z
 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z
 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z

 * Day 4/5
 * Day 6/7

Image Options:
24 Hour/Multi Day QPF
12-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
6-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
48-Hour QPF (Day 4-5/6-7)

» Probabilistic QPF (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation
   Monitor




» View Probabilistic Precipitation Guidance (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation Monitor
+ Additional Links
 * » Product Verification
 * » Product Archive
 * » Product Info
 * » Additional formats of QPF: GRIB 2 | Shapefiles | KML
 * » Other QPF Products

Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Interactive Page:
Valid Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024
Valid Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024
Valid Thu Oct 24 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024
Valid Fri Oct 25 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 27 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 27 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 28 2024
 
 * Valid Until 12Z
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5


Interactive Page
+ Forecast Discussion


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024

01Z Update: The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance is less than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024


A cold front, associated with a closed mid-level low over the Gulf
of Alaska, will focus rain and high elevation mountain snow
showers across much of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
this weekend. Snow showers will remain confined to the northern
Cascades and Olympic Mountains before expanding into the southern
Cascades and Northern Rockies on Sunday, the northern Sierra and
Yellowstone/Absarokas on Monday and Colorado Rockies by Tuesday.
Beneath the upper trough, temperatures will be well below average.
Portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West may experience
minimum temperature anomalies between 10-20 degrees below average
from Monday to Wednesday.

Cyclogenesis is likely to occur on the lee side of the Rockies
while the digging upper-trough pulls moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms may focus
along a cold front slowly propagating through the central U.S..
There's some signal for a heavy rain event to unfold over parts of
the Lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest mid-week, due to
the slow moving upper-level trough.

An upper ridge over the southern and central U.S. will promote
above average temperatures across portions of the Great Plains and
Upper Midwest beginning this weekend. Parts of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest will experience positive temperature anomalies
between 10-20 degrees above average.

Kebede



Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024


A cold front, associated with a closed mid-level low over the Gulf
of Alaska, will focus rain and high elevation mountain snow
showers across much of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
this weekend. Snow showers will remain confined to the northern
Cascades and Olympic Mountains before expanding into the southern
Cascades and Northern Rockies on Sunday, the northern Sierra and
Yellowstone/Absarokas on Monday and Colorado Rockies by Tuesday.
Beneath the upper trough, temperatures will be well below average.
Portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West may experience
minimum temperature anomalies between 10-20 degrees below average
from Monday to Wednesday.

Cyclogenesis is likely to occur on the lee side of the Rockies
while the digging upper-trough pulls moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms may focus
along a cold front slowly propagating through the central U.S..
There's some signal for a heavy rain event to unfold over parts of
the Lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest mid-week, due to
the slow moving upper-level trough.

An upper ridge over the southern and central U.S. will promote
above average temperatures across portions of the Great Plains and
Upper Midwest beginning this weekend. Parts of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest will experience positive temperature anomalies
between 10-20 degrees above average.

Kebede



+ Additional Links
 * » Product Info
 * » Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories
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Winter Weather Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/26/2024 - 12Z 10/27/2024
Valid 12Z 10/27/2024 - 12Z 10/28/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 *  Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7
 * 
   

Day 1-3 Image Options:
Snowfall (≥ 4”)
Snowfall (≥ 8”)
Snowfall (≥ 12”)
Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)
Composite Charts

Interactive Map (Day 1-3)
Interactive Map (Day 4-7)
Winter Storm Severity Index
Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index
Experimental Winter
Storm Outlook

» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
» Winter Storm Severity Index
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)


Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024

...Northern Rockies...
Day 1...

Mid-level low off the WA/OR coast opens into compact shortwave
and ejects east over the OR Coast this afternoon before weakening
as it reaches western WY late tonight. Lee-side low pressure
develops over northern WY overnight which aids upslope flow back on
the western WY terrain where snow reaches moderate rates overnight.
Snow levels drop from around 8000ft to 7000ft overnight during this
precip, particularly around greater Yellowstone. Day 1 PWPF are
10-40% for >4" over the northern Absarokas in southern MT and in
the Tetons.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Jackson





+ Additional Links
 * » Experimental Winter Storm Outlook
 * » Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index
 * » Product Verification
 * » Product Archive
 * » Product Info
 * » Forecast Surface Low Positions: Uncertainty Circles | Ensemble Clusters
 * » Other Winter Weather Products

Medium Range Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30, 2024
 
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7

Image Options:
Fronts
Max Temp (°F)
Max Temp Anomaly (°F)
Min Temp (°F)
Min Temp Anomaly (°F)
24-hr Pop(%)
500mb Heights

Day 3-7 Hazards
Additional Products

+ Forecast Discussion

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

...General Overview...

Predominantly zonal flow across the lower 48 at the beginning of
the period (this weekend) will give way to a more amplified pattern
toward the end. A closed upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will
fill and dig into the West Coast of the CONUS this weekend. This
system will bring cool temperatures, rain and snow to the Northwest
U.S. through early next week before developing a threat for heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms over parts of the central U.S. by mid-
week. A pronounced downstream ridge will generate above average
temperatures across the Plains and Mississippi Valley beginning
Monday.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models are in reasonable agreement regarding the overall synoptic
pattern across the CONUS during the medium range period. The
deterministic Euro and GFS guidance have trended slower with the
digging East Pacific trough next week, while the ensemble means
still have some timing spread. There's pretty good clustering of
the ensembles on the depth of the trough, though.

On days 3 and 4 a general model blend consisting of equal parts 12z
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET and 18z GFS were utilized due to the predominantly
zonal flow across the lower 48 and large ridge over the southern
tier states/northern Mexico. The 12z ECE/CMCE and 18z GEFS were
introduced to the blend on day 5 and continued through the end of
the period to mitigate some deterministic solutions that signal the
formation of a closed mid-level low over the Four Corners region
by mid-week. There's some signal for another split flow pattern
over the central U.S. on day 7.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A cold front, associated with a closed mid-level low over the Gulf
of Alaska, will focus rain and high elevation mountain snow
showers across much of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
this weekend. Snow showers will remain confined to the northern
Cascades and Olympic Mountains before expanding into the southern
Cascades and Northern Rockies on Sunday, the northern Sierra and
Yellowstone/Absarokas on Monday and Colorado Rockies by Tuesday.
Beneath the upper trough, temperatures will be well below average.
Portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West may experience
minimum temperature anomalies between 10-20 degrees below average
from Monday to Wednesday.

Cyclogenesis is likely to occur on the lee side of the Rockies
while the digging upper-trough pulls moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms may focus
along a cold front slowly propagating through the central U.S..
There's some signal for a heavy rain event to unfold over parts of
the Lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest mid-week, due to
the slow moving upper-level trough.

An upper ridge over the southern and central U.S. will promote
above average temperatures across portions of the Great Plains and
Upper Midwest beginning this weekend. Parts of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest will experience positive temperature anomalies
between 10-20 degrees above average.

Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

+ Additional Links
 * » Product Archive
 * » Product Info
 * » Day 3-7 Surface Composite
 * » Other Medium Range Products

Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)
 
Tools Generated at WPC
These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due
to workstation failure and/or data unavailability.
Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports


Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations
for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes
ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.

GEFS Probabilities


Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and
sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.

Local Storm Reports


Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports
include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant
information from storm spotters.

Extreme Precipitation Monitor


Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The
climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals
(ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.

Ensemble Situational Awareness Table


An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles,
and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required
to view ECMWF data).

*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network
can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.

NDFD Forecast Temperature Records


Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records
within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)
                                                                           
                                                                           
                                                                           

NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal


Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their
respective departures from climatology.

Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts


An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members
of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.

Weather in Context Prototype


Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a
forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool
is available for both CONUS and Alaska.

1/3/6/24-hr Changes


Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over
the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis
(RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).

Experimental HeatRisk


The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a
color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of
risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts
available out through 7 days.

Other Favorite Forecast Tools
CIPS Guidance


Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that
are similar to the upcoming forecast.

National Blend of Models


Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based
on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and
post-processed model guidance.

Atmospheric River Portal


A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the Center for
Western Weather and Water Extremes.

GEFS Plumes


An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a
point.

SPC Forecast Tools


A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

ECMWF Forecast Charts


Output from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including medium
range deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.



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