www.amis-outlook.org Open in urlscan Pro
34.8.249.103  Public Scan

URL: https://www.amis-outlook.org/
Submission: On December 17 via api from US — Scanned from ES

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 * Home
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   Overview AMIS Chair Secretariat Information Group Rapid Response Forum
 * Market Monitor
 * Database
   Market Database Policy Database
 * Statistics at a glance
   Crops Fertilizers
 * Resources
 * Events
 * News

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Slide 1 of 1

New AMIS website: Enhanced technology for greater market transparency

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) is an inter-agency platform to
enhance food market transparency and policy response for food security. It was
launched in 2011 by the G20 Ministers of Agriculture following the global food
price hikes in 2007/08 and 2010. Bringing together the principal trading
countries of agricultural commodities, AMIS assesses global food supplies
(focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans) and provides a platform to
coordinate policy action in times of market uncertainty.

Read More


MARKETS AT A GLANCE

See More
 * Production
 * Domestic Utilization
 * Trade
 * Closing Stocks
   

Production
 * Production
 * Domestic Utilization
 * Trade
 * Closing Stocks
   

World - Production
Current forecast and change from previous season, in million tonnes
Wheat
2024/25 Forecast
788.85

(-0.02%)

Maize
2024/25 Forecast
1,217.38

-24 (-1.94%)

Rice
2024/25 Forecast
538.84

4 (0.76%)

Soybean
2024/25 Forecast
422.80

29 (6.82%)




Updated on 06 December 2024


PRICES

 * IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index
 * GOI: Wheat Sub-Index
 * GOI: Maize Sub-Index
 * GOI: Rice Sub-Index
 * GOI: Soybeans Sub-Index
   

IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index
 * IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index
 * GOI: Wheat Sub-Index
 * GOI: Maize Sub-Index
 * GOI: Rice Sub-Index
 * GOI: Soybeans Sub-Index
   

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) eased moderately during November,
largely reflecting weaker prices for major food grains – wheat and rice – with
both markets termed to be adequately-supplied for the near-term. The annual
decline in average Index values of 13 percent is led by soybean and rice
markets.

The Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) of the International Grains Council (IGC) is
a trade-weighted measure of export (free-on-board or fob) prices across key
origins, spanning grains, oilseeds and rice markets. Compiled daily based on
nominal market values, the GOI is considered a useful dynamic indicator of
market conditions across these staple products, also offering insights into
trends in food import bills for net importing countries.

Created with Highcharts 11.3.0Chart context menuGrains and Oilseeds Index (by
year)2014-2016 = 10020202021202220232024JanMarMayJulSepNovJan200225250275300325

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) eased moderately during November,
largely reflecting weaker prices for major food grains – wheat and rice – with
both markets termed to be adequately-supplied for the near-term. The annual
decline in average Index values of 13 percent is led by soybean and rice
markets.

The Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) of the International Grains Council (IGC) is
a trade-weighted measure of export (free-on-board or fob) prices across key
origins, spanning grains, oilseeds and rice markets. Compiled daily based on
nominal market values, the GOI is considered a useful dynamic indicator of
market conditions across these staple products, also offering insights into
trends in food import bills for net importing countries.

Created with Highcharts 11.3.0Chart context menuGOI: Wheat Sub-Index (by
year)2014-2016 = 10020202021202220232024JanMarMayJulSepNovJan175200225250275300

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) eased moderately during November,
largely reflecting weaker prices for major food grains – wheat and rice – with
both markets termed to be adequately-supplied for the near-term. The annual
decline in average Index values of 13 percent is led by soybean and rice
markets.

The Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) of the International Grains Council (IGC) is
a trade-weighted measure of export (free-on-board or fob) prices across key
origins, spanning grains, oilseeds and rice markets. Compiled daily based on
nominal market values, the GOI is considered a useful dynamic indicator of
market conditions across these staple products, also offering insights into
trends in food import bills for net importing countries.

Created with Highcharts 11.3.0Chart context menuGOI: Maize Sub-Index (by
year)2014-2016 = 10020202021202220232024JanMarMayJulSepNovJan150200250300350

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) eased moderately during November,
largely reflecting weaker prices for major food grains – wheat and rice – with
both markets termed to be adequately-supplied for the near-term. The annual
decline in average Index values of 13 percent is led by soybean and rice
markets.

The Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) of the International Grains Council (IGC) is
a trade-weighted measure of export (free-on-board or fob) prices across key
origins, spanning grains, oilseeds and rice markets. Compiled daily based on
nominal market values, the GOI is considered a useful dynamic indicator of
market conditions across these staple products, also offering insights into
trends in food import bills for net importing countries.

Created with Highcharts 11.3.0Chart context menuGOI: Rice Sub-Index (by
year)2014-2016 = 10020202021202220232024JanMarMayJulSepNovJan175200225250275

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) eased moderately during November,
largely reflecting weaker prices for major food grains – wheat and rice – with
both markets termed to be adequately-supplied for the near-term. The annual
decline in average Index values of 13 percent is led by soybean and rice
markets.

The Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) of the International Grains Council (IGC) is
a trade-weighted measure of export (free-on-board or fob) prices across key
origins, spanning grains, oilseeds and rice markets. Compiled daily based on
nominal market values, the GOI is considered a useful dynamic indicator of
market conditions across these staple products, also offering insights into
trends in food import bills for net importing countries.

Created with Highcharts 11.3.0Chart context menuGOI: Soybeans Sub-Index (by
year)2014-2016 =
10020202021202220232024JanMarMayJulSepNovJan175200225250275300325


MARKET NEWS SUMMARY

PUBLISHED ON 12 DECEMBER 2024

Wheat


CME and Euronext wheat futures prices slightly rebound amid concerns over
Russian winter crop conditions and diminished pressure from Black Sea prices.

 * Russian winter crops are in poor state, top government official says
   https://www.xm.com/au/research/markets/allNews/reuters/russian-winter-crops-are-in-poor-state-top-government-official-says-53982505
 * Russia raises wheat export duty by nearly a third
   https://indianexpress.com/article/news-today/russia-raises-wheat-export-duty-nearly-third-9711009/#:~:text=Russia%2C%20the%20world's%20largest%20wheat,poor%20state%20of%20winter%20crops
 * Rains hamper Australian harvest; strong maize prices boost feed wheat demand
   https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/120624-asia-wheat-nov-roundup-rains-hamper-australian-harvest-strong-corn-prices-boost-feed-wheat-demand

Maize/Soybean


CME maize futures prices strengthen driven by a decline in US ending stocks
estimates from US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and dynamic export sales.
Soybean prices remain flat as prospects of record crop in Brazil weighs on the
market.

 * Maize futures rise after USDA cuts stocks forecast
   https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202412108311/corn-futures-rise-after-usda-cuts-stocks-forecast-daily-grain-highlights
 * Brazil braces for bumper soy crop and large export season
   https://www.xm.com/au/research/markets/commodities/reuters/brazil-braces-for-bumper-soy-crop-and-large-export-season-consultancies-say-53979738
 * High South American prices and crop quality concerns in Ukraine have driven
   global buyers toward U.S. maize supplies
   https://www.brecorder.com/news/amp/40336831

Rice


Indian export prices decline further as the rupee depreciates to a record low
against the US dollar.

 * Indian export prices fall; Vietnam, Thailand demand muted
   https://www.brecorder.com/news/40336205/asia-rice-indian-export-prices-fall-vietnam-thailand-demand-muted
 * Rice price slump enables India, Pakistan to wage regional price competition
   https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121024-rice-price-slump-enables-india-pakistan-to-wage-regional-price-competition

Fertilizers


India launches a new urea purchase tender which should bring some activity in
otherwise calm fertilizer markets.

 * India's National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) issues tender to procure 1.5
   million tonnes of urea https://x.com/ebrahim_argha/status/1866098894116995134
 * Some granular phosphates prices declined further despite tight global
   availability, though downside is likely to be limited. Ethiopia returned with
   a tender for a further 600 000 tonnes of DAP. Potash prices gained in Brazil
   https://x.com/FertilizerWeek1/status/1866125991451468147
 * December sees latest Chinese DAP/MAP export halt
   https://www.profercy.com/december-sees-latest-chinese-dap-map-export-halt/

Trade logistics


Dry bulk freight rates hit 2024 lows due to Panamax overcapacity; Dry bulk
congestion time sharply reduced in Brazil in 2024; Poland plans new grain
terminal at Gdansk.

 * Bulker rates sink to new 2024 lows as panamax overcapacity infects broader
   market
   https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1151744/Panamaxes-pull-down-entire-dry-bulk-sector-with-no-rebound-in-sight

 * Dry bulk congestion time sharply reduced in Brazil in 2024 amid lower
   produced volumes, but also investment in infrastructure
   https://www.kpler.com/blog/brazil-looks-to-record-soybean-production-dry-freight-market-weakness-persists

 * Poland to build new grain terminal at Gdansk
   https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1151698/Poland-to-build-new-grain-terminal-at-Gdansk

Vegetable oil and biofuel


Vegetable oil markets are tightening, with palm oil prices rising due to supply
concerns in Southeast Asia and projections of stronger US soybean oil export
demand.

 * US soyoil exports blow past previous forecasts
   https://www.zawya.com/en/news/insights/us-corn-soyoil-exports-blow-past-previous-forecasts-braun-qs9489e1
 * Ukrainian rapeseed exports to the EU in 2024/25 season increased by 13
   percent. https://www.apk-inform.com/en/news/1545382
 * Malaysian palm oil prices surge driven by robust demand and adverse weather
   conditions
   https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/malaysian-palm-oil-prices-surge-driven-by-robust-demand-and-adverse-weather-31892
 * Launch of used cooking oil futures contract to meet rising biofuel demand
   https://tinyurl.com/m5a6ednk

Policy developments


China reduces Canadian canola imports over anti-dumping concerns; EU seeks more
funds for low-income farmers; Egypt shifts wheat buying to military agency.

 * Chinese buyers slash Canadian canola imports on fears of anti-dumping duty
   https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinese-buyers-slash-canadian-canola-imports-fears-anti-dumping-duty-2024-12-05/
 * EU’s new agriculture chief seeks more funds to be doled out to low-income
   farmers https://www.ft.com/content/b0393171-0ff0-4880-a9e2-70f62a0e3445
 * Egyptian military agency takes over wheat buying from decades-old supply
   group
   https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-mostakbal-misr-takes-over-gascs-role-commodities-importer-2024-12-06/


Events
26th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
14 Nov 2024
Geneva, Switzerland

13th session of the AMIS Secretariat Steering Committee
21 Jun 2024
Rome, Italy

25th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
20 Jun 2024
Rome, Italy

More events
News

Enhanced technology for greater market transparency
12 Dec 2024

A recent upgrade of the AMIS website marks a pivotal step to ensure that global
agricultural stakeholders continue having access to vital market intelligence.
The new site provides improved functionalities and flexibility, with a greater
focus being placed on data and the timeliness of information. In this way AMIS
will be able to better respond to the dynamic needs of its users, strengthening
the initiative’s reputation for being a key pillar for global market
transparency.

“This upgrade is more than just improving the looks of our site—it is about
future-proofing our systems,” says Denis Drechsler, AMIS Project Manager, FAO.
“By moving to a modern technology stack, we have ensured that AMIS is equipped
to grow and respond to the needs of our stakeholders more effectively, keeping
them informed about latest developments.”

Focus on data and real time information

AMIS is a collaborative initiative created by the Group of Twenty (G20),
involving ten international organizations that support the Secretariat with data
and analysis. The revamped site allows AMIS partners to directly feed their
contributions into the system while several processes have been automated and
streamlined to maximize efficiency. To showcase the value of up-to-date
information, the new homepage features key market data, prominently displaying
the latest supply-and-demand updates and market price information for immediate
access.

“The dynamic nature of global food markets requires a nimble system that can get
out information fast”, explains Ken Barron, Agroinformatics Platform Analyst,
FAO. “These updates address the challenges posed by the short shelf life of our
data, enabling all our stakeholders to stay informed about the latest
developments more quickly.”

For users seeking in-depth analysis, the expanded Market Monitor pages now
incorporate all sections of the traditional print report, providing a seamless
online experience. Another highlight is the new fertilizer data dashboard, which
offers insights into global fertilizer trends and their impact on agricultural
production. The analysis of fertilizer markets has recently been added to the
monitoring work of AMIS following G20 demands and the significant price hikes in
main fertilizer products in 2022.

“As Chair of AMIS, Canada is very pleased to see the broadening of the
Secretariat’s information resources, especially in the area of fertilizers, and
greatly appreciates the responsiveness of the system to quickly address the
evolving needs of its members. This enhanced website will play a key role in
supporting the transparency mandate collectively being pursued by AMIS members”,
says Donald Boucher, Director General, Sector Development and Analysis
Directorate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and current Chair of AMIS.

Empowering Stakeholders with a Better User Experience

The upgraded website does not just bring modern functionality; it represents a
commitment to better serve AMIS’ diverse global audience. From policymakers and
market analysts to researchers and producers, the platform provides an
accessible and comprehensive view of what is happening in global agricultural
markets.

Thanks to its new design and interactive tools, the revamped site can convey
complex data in support of informed decision-making at every level. For example,
users can now explore data by specific crops in addition to the traditional
access via topics, providing greater flexibility in accessing relevant insights.

As AMIS looks to the future, recent upgrades lay the groundwork for continuous
improvement and responsiveness to user needs. It reflects FAO and its partners'
dedication to transparency, collaboration, and the seamless delivery of critical
market intelligence for common benefits that will leave no one behind.

Explore the new AMIS website and experience the changes firsthand.

Market Monitor December 2024
06 Dec 2024

Global prices for AMIS crops are currently lower than they were a year ago. The
maize subindex has decreased by 1.5 percent, while wheat and rice prices have
dropped by around ten percent, and soybean prices have fallen by nearly 20
percent. This suggests a comfortable global market situation for the current
marketing season. However, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding
potential changes in U.S. trade policies and the responses from trading
partners. With 2024 likely to be the warmest year on record, variations in
rainfall and temperature will have both positive and negative effects on crop
yields across different commodities and areas.

EU contribution to AMIS will bolster market intelligence on key commodities
26 Nov 2024

AMIS welcomes a EUR 1.2 million contribution from the European Union’s
Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI). The funding
agreement was signed today by Maurizio Martina, Deputy Director General of the
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and Wolfgang
Burtscher, Director General of DG AGRI. The grant will help AMIS to continue
providing essential market intelligence, monitoring and policy coordination
through 2030.

Mr. Martina thanked DG AGRI for its support to the initiative. “Access to
timely, accurate, and transparent food market information is crucial to improve
preparedness for crises, support better policy decisions, and prevent unexpected
price hikes,” he said. “Today’s contribution will further enhance the
capabilities of AMIS and allow the Secretariat to expand the scope of its
monitoring activities in line with the requirements set out by the G20.”

Mr. Burtscher explained that initiatives such as AMIS are vital for providing
knowledge, ensuring market transparency, and facilitating an appropriate policy
response for food security.

AMIS has been credited for playing a constructive role in recent crises where
food markets were affected: during the COVID-19 pandemic, AMIS assessments
determined that food supplies were adequate, which contributed to calming
international markets. More recently, following the outbreak of war in Ukraine
in 2022, a series of policy dialogue events held by the AMIS Rapid Response
Forum helped to reduce the impacts of the conflict on food trade.

Access to reliable data is a key component of improving global food security;
with a mandate to support and promote a knowledge and evidence-based transition
towards a sustainable, competitive, and resilient agriculture, rural areas and
food systems, DG AGRI’s work aligns well with that of AMIS. Through this
contribution, the EU joins other financial partners which currently support the
initiative - Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Spain, the
United Kingdom and United States - in ensuring that AMIS can provide critical
data and policy support for years to come.

Evolution of export restrictions on staple crops since 2007
11 Nov 2024

The OECD maintains a database on export restrictions on staple crops (maize,
rice, wheat, and soybeans) from 2007 onwards for the G20 Agricultural Market
Information System (AMIS) initiative. A recent OECD policy paper uses this
database to highlight and analyse key trends in export restrictions between
January 2007 and April 2024 (OECD, 2024).

The analysis shows an increased use of export restrictions during the global
food price crisis of 2007-08, the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) and following
the fullscale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. The first crisis
witnessed a significantly higher use of export restrictions than the two
subsequent crises, suggesting that AMIS and international political
collaboration have contributed to maintaining food trade flows open. During the
first two crises, export taxes prevailed, while prohibitions have been more
prominent immediately following the start of the war in Ukraine.

The type of export restriction most commonly used between January 2007 and April
2024 varied by commodity. Maize experienced predominantly export taxes and
prohibitions, while minimum export prices and quotas were frequently applied in
the rice sector. Soybeans were primarily targeted by export taxes, whereas a mix
of export quotas and taxes was used for wheat.

The composition, most targeted commodity and duration of export restrictions
differed between the three periods. Rice was the most targeted staple crop,
followed by wheat, during the global food price crisis, whereas wheat, soybeans
and maize were the most targeted crops during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rice,
followed by wheat, has been the most targeted crop since the war in Ukraine
began.

Export taxes were most frequently used during the global food price crisis,
followed by export quotas and export prohibitions. During the COVID-19 pandemic,
export taxes were the primary measure introduced, followed by export
prohibitions and export quotas. Export prohibitions were the most frequent
during the war in Ukraine, followed by export quotas and taxes. Export
restrictions were relatively short-lived during the COVID19 pandemic, with 28
percent lasting less than a month, whereas only 10 percent of export
restrictions during the global food price crisis and the war in Ukraine lasted
less than a month. During the global food price crisis, 25 percent of export
restrictions lasted more than a year.

Even though export restrictions are often intended to be a temporary measure,
the analysis shows that only a small proportion of export restrictions
introduced between January 2007 and April 2024 lasted less than a month. Around
45 percent of export bans introduced during this period lasted between one and
six months, and around 50 percent of export quotas lasted between six months and
one year. Export taxes tended to last longer than bans and quotas, with more
than a quarter (26 percent) of export taxes lasting for longer than a year.

AMIS’ role in maintaining transparency in the market and policy landscape of
staple crops and coordinating policy responses remains essential. The
transparency provided by AMIS is vital for the effective functioning of global
markets and supports the resilience of the food system, contributing to ensuring
access to affordable, nutritious food worldwide.

Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2: What Role for Trade?
09 Oct 2024

Ahead of this year's World Food Day on 16 October, policy-makers and market
actors can usefully reflect on how trade and trade policy have helped to advance
SDG 2, "zero hunger", and what more can be done.

In July this year, five UN agencies - including AMIS Secretariat members FAO,
IFAD, and WFP - released new figures which showed that progress towards tackling
hunger remains stalled, after rapidly worsening in the wake of the COVID-19
pandemic and the start of the war in Ukraine.

The numbers also show that, with around 735 million people or 9 percent of the
world’s population facing hunger, we are off track to meet the targets set out
under Sustainable Development Goal 2 - which commit governments to end hunger
and malnutrition by 2030.

In July, the WTO published a report ahead of the HighLevel Political Forum on
Sustainable Development, , which examined how trade has contributed towards
progress to date, and looked at the challenge ahead.

The report comes two years after trade ministers agreed a landmark declaration
on food security at the WTO’s twelfth ministerial conference in June 2022. This
expressed ministers’ determination to make progress towards the objectives set
out under SDG 2, while also acknowledging that this had been undermined in
recent years.

The report found that the agricultural sector globally continues to be affected
by deep-seated structural challenges associated with trade-distorting support
and protection. OECD data indicates that, in 54 economies in 2020-22, USD 630
billion was provided on average in annual support to individual producers,
including highly distorting forms of support such as payments tied directly to
prices and production.

These measures undermine efforts to correct and prevent trade restrictions and
distortions in world agricultural markets (a commitment set out in SDG 2b).

FAO research has also found the agri-food system imposes “hidden costs” of at
least USD 10 trillion, as a result of unhealthy diets, environmental costs, and
undernourishment. Progress on SDG 2 will require governments to take action to
address these, including by reforming subsidies, reinforcing environmental
protection, and strengthening social safety nets.

WTO data indicates that, between 2000 and 2022, the value of agricultural trade
has grown five-fold, and has been remarkably resilient to shocks, growing
rapidly and relatively steadily across all world regions. Trade in grains has
also expanded strongly.

Meanwhile, tariffs on agricultural goods fell significantly, easing consumers’
access to food and enabling exporters to respond to rising effective demand,
especially in developing countries. The average applied tariff (including
preferences) on agricultural goods was 13 percent in 2005, but this fell to 6.2
percent in 2021.

In addition to improving the stability of supply and enhancing the availability
of food, trade has helped to improve economic and physical access to food, by
helping to create jobs and raise people’s incomes.

In the first decade of this century, China’s merchandise imports and exports
both grew six-fold, in line with a dramatic reduction in the number and
prevalence of hungry people in the country. Undernourishment fell from 10
percent to less than 2.5 percent between 2000-02 and 2020-22 – or 131.3 million
fewer people.

Similar trends are apparent in many other countries which were home to large
numbers of undernourished people just over two decades ago, including Indonesia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

At the same time, some other economies have seen trade in goods and services
grow, while the number of hungry people has risen after initially falling in the
first decade of the century. This trend is apparent in India - home to one-third
of all the under-nourished people in the world - as well as in Brazil, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Madagascar, and Pakistan.

Conflict, climate extremes, economic slowdowns and downturns, and growing
inequality remain among the key drivers of food insecurity, the FAO and other
international agencies have said.

Trade has also helped bring food prices back down to lower levels after these
hit record peaks in March 2022, following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The
Black Sea Grain Initiative, and more recently Ukraine’s humanitarian shipping
corridor, have helped to keep trade in food flowing to where it is needed, even
though extreme weather events and geopolitical tensions have continued to affect
trade in different world regions.

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Email: AMIS-Secretariat@fao.org

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