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Skip to content EARLY RETIREMENT NOW You can't afford not to retire early! Primary Menu * Home * Start here * About * SWR Series * Links * Forum * Contact * Disclaimers * Privacy Policy CRYPTO IS PROBABLY A BAD INVESTMENT! April 25, 2022 If you remember my April Fools Day post from a few weeks ago, I poked fun at the proliferation of new crypto coins. Most of them are scams. But what about the mainstream crypto coins, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.? Are they a good investment? What’s not to like about a 100%+ annualized return in some of the crypto coins between their inception and their 2021 peak? Well, those returns are “water under the bridge”. What matters to me today is the outlook for the crypto world going forward. In today’s post, I like to go through some of the reasons why I believe going forward, crypto looks like a sub-par investment. I currently don’t invest in crypto and I don’t think that anything more than a few % of the portfolio seems prudent. Let’s take a look… Continue reading “Crypto is probably a bad investment!” → Posted on April 25, 2022April 25, 2022 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset AllocationTagged Asset Allocation, bonds, cryptocurrencies, efficient frontier, equities, finance, investing, personal finance, simulations. 58 Comments INTRODUCING THE ERN-APPROVED CRYPTO COIN April 1, 2022 If you’re familiar with my work on Safe Withdrawal Rates, you’ll know that the number one concern for retirees is Sequence of Return Risk. Well, hopefully, this will soon be a thing of the past. I’m now ready to announce the complete “retirement” (pun intended) of my Safe Withdrawal Rate Research because, after years of research and a partnership with some of the most impressive crypto experts, I have finally developed a way to completely(!) hedge against Sequence Risk, once and for all. Introducing the revolutionary, proprietary, trademarked Sequence-Hedged Investment Token™ Coin. Guaranteed free of Sequence of Return Risk! It’s safe for retirement, it’s safe for accumulating assets. A patented and trademarked revolutionary crypto technology solution to guarantee a risk-free retirement! With tax advantages, too! Let’s take a look at the details… Continue reading “Introducing the ERN-approved Crypto Coin” → Posted on April 1, 2022March 31, 2022 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset AllocationTagged Asset Allocation, cryptocurrencies, finance, investing, personal finance, safe withdrawal rate. 32 Comments TIMING LEVERAGE IN RETIREMENT – SWR SERIES PART 52 March 21, 2022 Last year in Part 49 of the Safe Withdrawal Series, I wrote a post about using leverage in retirement, and in today’s post, I like to explore some additional issues. A quick recap, the appeal of using leverage in retirement is that we would borrow against the portfolio instead of liquidating assets. Nice! That might help with Sequence Risk if we avoid liquidating assets at temporarily depressed prices. There could also be a tax advantage in that we keep deferring the realization of taxable capital gains, potentially until we bequeath our assets to our daughter who can then use the “step-up basis” for complete forgiveness of all of our accumulated capital gains. That’s the famous “buy, borrow, die” approach popular with high-net-worth folks. The gist of the post last year: Not so fast! Leverage could potentially even exacerbate Sequence Risk if you are unlucky and retire right before a bad market event that’s deep enough (like the Great Depression) or long enough (like the 1965-1982 stagflation episode) to compromise the portfolio so badly that the margin loan becomes unsustainable relative to the underwater portfolio. One solution proposed by several readers: instead of always borrowing against the portfolio, maybe we should carefully time when we use leverage. For example, borrow only when the stock market is down “far enough” and use withdrawals from the portfolio otherwise. And if the market is doing well again, potentially pay back the loan again! Sounds like a reasonable and intuitive plan. But I want to put that to the test with some real simulations. Let’s take a look at the details… Continue reading “Timing Leverage in Retirement – SWR Series Part 52” → Posted on March 21, 2022March 21, 2022 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset Allocation, Safe Withdrawal RatesTagged Asset Allocation, bonds, equities, finance, financial independence, investing, leverage, personal finance, safe withdrawal rate, Sequence of Return Risk, simulations. 25 Comments RETIREMENT IN A HIGH-INFLATION ENVIRONMENT – SWR SERIES PART 51 February 28, 2022 What a difference a year makes! In late 2020, only about 16 months ago, I felt the urge to comment on the then-fashionable discussion of how low inflation would impact retirees. See Part 41 – Can we raise our Safe Withdrawal Rate when inflation is low? of my SWR Series. Feels like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it? The takeaway back then: don’t get distracted by high-frequency economic fluctuations. Low inflation doesn’t necessarily mean we can all raise our safe withdrawal rates. Certainly not one-for-one. There is neither empirical nor theoretical economic backing for materially changing your retirement strategy. Only a little more than a year later the tide has turned. We’re now facing the highest inflation readings in about 40 years. 7.5% CPI and potentially 8% year-over-year once the BLS releases the February figure in mid-March. So, people asked me if my inflation views are symmetric, i.e., high inflation is also a non-event? As I signaled in my inflation post last month, I’m not too worried. Here’s why… Continue reading “Retirement in a High-Inflation Environment – SWR Series Part 51” → Posted on February 28, 2022March 10, 2022 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset Allocation, Safe Withdrawal RatesTagged bonds, equities, finance, Inflation, investing, personal finance, safe withdrawal rate, Sequence of Return Risk, simulations. 72 Comments INFLATION AT 7%! HERE’S WHY I’M NOT RUNNING FOR THE HILLS (YET)! January 13, 2022 According to the most recent inflation numbers that came out yesterday (1/13), CPI inflation is now running at 7% year-over-year. From September to December we saw a 2.2% increase, which is a 9.1% annualized rate. And it’s not all energy and food inflation. The core CPI is also elevated at 5.5% year-over-year. What do I make of this? How persistent or transitory is this inflation bump? Should we adjust our portfolio? Or our safe withdrawal rate? Here’s a short note with my thoughts… Continue reading “Inflation at 7%! Here’s why I’m not running for the hills (yet)!” → Posted on January 13, 2022March 15, 2022 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset AllocationTagged Asset Allocation, bond, equities, finance, Inflation, investing, personal finance, Preferred Stocks, safe withdrawal rate. 80 Comments TEN THINGS THE “MAKERS” OF THE FIRE MOVEMENT DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW – SWR SERIES PART 50 January 3, 2022 Happy New Year, everybody. I hope you had a relaxing and healthy Christmas and a good start to the New Year! Last month was the 5th anniversary of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Series! In December 2016, I published the first part of that series. I had material for maybe four or five parts but one thing led to another and with new ideas, most of them due to reader feedback, the series took off. It’s been running for 5 years and I obviously opened a bottle of bubbly last month to celebrate. So, what’s the deal with the title then? Very simple: Blogging 101. You need a catchy title! I might have called the post “What I’ve learned in 5 years and 50 posts” or something along those lines. But to shake things up and get everybody’s attention, this is the title I went with. Think of this post as a natural extension of Part 26 “Ten things the “Makers” of the 4% Rule don’t want you to know” or the equally “tongue-in-cheek” posts “How to ‘Lie’ with Personal Finance” – Part 1 and Part 2. So, after 5 years, 50 posts, what have I learned? What do I think others in the FIRE community are missing? What can you learn from my series that you may not have seen elsewhere? Let’s take a look… Continue reading “Ten things the “Makers” of the FIRE movement don’t want you to know – SWR Series Part 50″ → Posted on January 3, 2022February 19, 2022 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset Allocation, Safe Withdrawal RatesTagged bonds, equities, finance, financial independence, investing, personal finance, safe withdrawal rate, Sequence of Return Risk, simulations, Taxes. 190 Comments LOW-COST LEVERAGE: THE “BOX SPREAD” TRADE December 9, 2021 Last month, I published Part 49 of my Safe Withdrawal Rate Series, dealing with leverage in retirement. In that post, I surmised that the cheapest form of leverage likely comes in the form of a margin loan in an Interactive Brokers (IB) account. If you have the IB Pro account you have access to loan rates tied to the Federal Funds Rate plus a tiered spread ranging from 0.3% to 1.5%. Though, the really low rates don’t start until your loan reaches at least $3,000,000. For more manageable loan amounts that the average retail investor would use, we’re looking at a higher spread: 1.50% spread for the first $100,000 and 1.00% over the Fed Funds Rate for the next $900k. With the current effective Fed Funds Rate at around between 0.08% and 0.10%, that’s a very competitive rate. Certainly better than a Home Equity Line Of Credit (HELOC). In the comments section, though, a reader brought up an idea for an even lower-cost method for borrowing against your assets: an exotic options trade called a “box spread”. I had heard of this trade before but never put much thought into it. And I certainly didn’t put any money into that idea. But just for fun, I researched this trade some more and even initiated one box spread trade on Monday, essentially issuing a synthetic $20,000 zero-coupon bond maturing in December 2026 at a very competitive interest rate, significantly lower what you’d get from IB. So, in today’s post, I like to go through the basics of the Box Spread, how to implement it and how this trade could in fact give us a cheaper form of leverage than even the rock-bottom rates from IB. Let’s take a look at the details… Continue reading “Low-Cost Leverage: The “Box Spread” Trade” → Posted on December 9, 2021February 2, 2022 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset Allocation, DerivativesTagged alternative investments, investing, leverage, Options, personal finance, Preferred Stocks, Taxes. 173 Comments USING LEVERAGE IN RETIREMENT – SWR SERIES PART 49 November 16, 2021 My Safe Withdrawal Series has grown to almost 50 parts. After nearly 5 years of researching this topic and writing and speaking about it, a comprehensive solution to Sequence Risk is still elusive. So today I like to write about another potential “fix” of Sequence Risk headache: Instead of selling assets in retirement, why not simply borrow against your portfolio? And pay back the loan when the market eventually recovers, 30 years down the road! You see, if Sequence Risk is the result of selling assets at depressed values during an extended bear market, then leverage could be the potential solution because you delay the liquidation of assets until you find a more opportune time. And since the market has always gone up over a long enough investing window (e.g., 30+ years), you might be able to avoid running out of money. Sweet! Using margin loans to fund your cash flow needs certainly sounds scary, but it’s quite common among high-net-worth households. In July, the Wall Street Journal featured this widely-cited article: Buy, Borrow, Die: How Rich Americans Live Off Their Paper Wealth. It details how high-net-worth folks borrow against their highly appreciated assets. This approach has tax and estate-planning benefits; you defer capital gains taxes and potentially even eliminate them altogether by either deferring the tax event indefinitely or by using the step-up basis when your heirs inherit the assets. Sweet! So, is leverage a panacea then? Using leverage cautiously and sparingly, you may indeed hedge a portion of your Sequence Risk and thus increase your safe withdrawal rate. But too much leverage might backfire and will even exacerbate Sequence Risk. Let’s take a look at the details… Continue reading “Using Leverage in Retirement – SWR Series Part 49” → Posted on November 16, 2021November 15, 2021 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset Allocation, Safe Withdrawal RatesTagged Asset Allocation, bonds, equities, finance, investing, leverage, personal finance, safe withdrawal rate, Sequence of Return Risk, simulations. 143 Comments PASSIVE INCOME THROUGH OPTION WRITING: PART 9 – 2016-2021 BACKTEST: GUEST POST BY “SPINTWIG” November 10, 2021 Welcome to a new post in the Put Option Writing Series. My blogging buddy Spintwig volunteered to perform another backtest simulation. If you remember from Part 5, he simulated selling 5-delta and 10-delta put options going back to 2018. He now added 18 more months of returns to go back to September 2016. In the end, I will also compare my live results with the simulated returns and point out why my live trading achieved even slightly better results. Mr. Spintwig, please take over… * * * Thank you BigERN (can I call you Dr. K?) for another opportunity to collaborate and add to the body of research that supports what is colloquially known as the “BigERN strategy.” Part 8 of the options trading series is a 2021 update that discusses, among other things, premium capture, annualized return and the idea of lowering leverage while increasing delta. Let’s throw some data at the idea of trading a higher delta at a lower leverage target and see how metrics like premium capture, CAGR, and max drawdown are impacted. As an added bonus, I’ve obtained SPX data that can facilitate a Sept 2016 start date for this strategy. This gives us an additional 18 months of history vs the SPY data that was used in Part 5. For the benchmark, we’ll use total return (i.e. dividends reinvested) buy/hold SPY (S&P 500) and IEF (10Y US Treasuries), rebalanced annually, in the following configurations: * 100 SPY / 0 IEF * 80 SPY / 20 IEF * 60 SPY / 40 IEF Let’s dive in… Continue reading “Passive income through option writing: Part 9 – 2016-2021 backtest: Guest Post by “Spintwig”” → Posted on November 10, 2021November 13, 2021 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in Asset Allocation, DerivativesTagged alternative investments, Asset Allocation, finance, guest post, Options, Passive Income, personal finance, simulations. 115 Comments 2022 FI CHAUTAUQUA IN ECUADOR 1/22/2022 Update: The 2022 Chautauqua is a go! The event sold out within a week (though there is a waiting list). I have bought my plane ticket and so have the other presenters. See you in June! October 27, 2021 Hi Everybody! Not a big blog post today, just a quick announcement: I will be heading to the 2022 Chautauqua in Ecuador as one of the invited speakers. The event will span an entire week: June 18-25 in 2022. So, if you want to spend a fun-filled week in a beautiful location with an opportunity to interact with like-minded FI and FIRE enthusiasts and four awesome FIRE thought leaders please consider joining us there! Here are more details… Continue reading “2022 FI Chautauqua in Ecuador” → Posted on October 27, 2021January 22, 2022 by earlyretirementnow.comPosted in GeneralTagged Community, finance, FIRE, personal finance, Travel. 4 Comments POSTS NAVIGATION Older posts Older posts SUBSCRIBE TO THE ERN BLOG VIA EMAIL Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Join 16,586 other subscribers Email Address Subscribe SEARCH Search for: Sort by Relevance Newest first Oldest first WE WERE FEATURED HERE: AFFILIATE LINKS If you like the free content we provide here, please consider helping us pay the bills by clicking on the links below. We personally use and really enjoy the services mentioned below. We wholeheartedly endorse them both to our relatives and friends, and thus also to the friends of the ERN blog! If you sign up through the affiliate links we’ll get a small referral fee and you get a signup bonus and the assurance that we can keep the lights on here at the ERN blog! Spintwig’s Options Trading S1 Signal. Use code “BigERN5” at checkout for a 5% discount (monthly and annual subscriptions and renewals) We use this Health Sharing Ministry plan and wholeheartedly endorse it! Get a two-week free trial for NewRetirement’s awesome “PlannerPlus” Get $20 when you sign up through this link Get $20 when you sign up for GoogleFI mobile phone service Get $40 when you sign up through this link and book your first trip Get $5 when you sign up through this link No direct compensation for you. Only the warm and fuzzy feeling that Big ERN gets a small payout. Looking to move to SW Washington? I wholeheartedly endorse Curtis Ambrose who did a fantastic job helping us find our home! My favorite Cloud Backup Service. Get a free month of service (and I get a free month too!!!) BOOKS I LIKE Affiliate links through Amazon.com. See Disclaimers for more info on the affiliate policy. RECENT POSTS * Crypto is probably a bad investment! April 25, 2022 * Introducing the ERN-approved Crypto Coin April 1, 2022 * Timing Leverage in Retirement – SWR Series Part 52 March 21, 2022 * Retirement in a High-Inflation Environment – SWR Series Part 51 February 28, 2022 * Inflation at 7%! Here’s why I’m not running for the hills (yet)! January 13, 2022 * Ten things the “Makers” of the FIRE movement don’t want you to know – SWR Series Part 50 January 3, 2022 * Low-Cost Leverage: The “Box Spread” Trade December 9, 2021 * Using Leverage in Retirement – SWR Series Part 49 November 16, 2021 ERN ON TWITTER ALL POSTS BY CATEGORY All Posts by Category Select Category Asset Allocation (186) Case Studies (15) Derivatives (19) General (36) Hiking (1) Loans (1) Real Estate (11) Safe Withdrawal Rates (60) Spending (8) Taxes (23) Travel (4) ALL POSTS BY MONTH All posts by month Select Month April 2022 (2) March 2022 (1) February 2022 (1) January 2022 (2) December 2021 (1) November 2021 (2) October 2021 (2) September 2021 (1) August 2021 (2) July 2021 (1) June 2021 (1) May 2021 (2) April 2021 (3) March 2021 (2) February 2021 (2) January 2021 (2) December 2020 (1) November 2020 (1) October 2020 (3) September 2020 (2) August 2020 (3) July 2020 (2) June 2020 (2) May 2020 (1) April 2020 (5) March 2020 (4) February 2020 (2) January 2020 (1) December 2019 (1) November 2019 (3) October 2019 (3) September 2019 (2) August 2019 (2) July 2019 (3) June 2019 (2) May 2019 (2) April 2019 (2) March 2019 (3) February 2019 (1) January 2019 (2) December 2018 (2) November 2018 (2) October 2018 (1) September 2018 (1) August 2018 (2) July 2018 (2) June 2018 (2) May 2018 (5) April 2018 (5) March 2018 (4) February 2018 (5) January 2018 (6) December 2017 (4) November 2017 (5) October 2017 (5) September 2017 (4) August 2017 (6) July 2017 (4) June 2017 (4) May 2017 (5) April 2017 (5) March 2017 (6) February 2017 (5) January 2017 (5) December 2016 (4) November 2016 (6) October 2016 (5) September 2016 (4) August 2016 (5) July 2016 (4) June 2016 (6) May 2016 (4) April 2016 (4) March 2016 (10) RECENT COMMENTS andyg42 on Crypto is probably a bad inves…andyg42 on Crypto is probably a bad inves…SpaceTimeMorph on Crypto is probably a bad inves…Ernest on Passive income through option…earlyretirementnow.c… on Inflation at 7%! 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