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Breaking
Business
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS WILL RISE 10% WHEN THEY URGENTLY NEED TO DROP, U.N.
WARNS
Brian Bushard
Forbes Staff
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Oct 26, 2022,10:28am EDT|
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TOPLINE
Global temperatures will increase by as much as 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end
of the century under current conditions, according to a U.N. report released
Wednesday, as scientists warn continued insufficient climate action will
accelerate the effects of climate change to catastrophic levels.
Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise more than 10% above 2010 levels by
2030, according to ... [+] a U.N. report.
Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
KEY FACTS
The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change report projects that by 2030,
greenhouse gas emissions will rise 10.6% above 2010 levels.
The increase is well above the 43% emissions reduction by 2030 (from 2019
levels) that the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change deemed necessary
to meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise
to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
PROMOTED
Even though several countries have pledged to substantially reduce emissions in
recent years, deeper cuts are still needed to meet the 1.5 degree
goal—otherwise, U.N. officials have previously warned, the “cascading and
irreversible” effects of climate change could lead to severe effects, including
drought, hunger, heat, sea-level rise and wildfires.
The 10.6% increase is lower than previous U.N. projections—estimated at
15.9%—which the report attributes to a series of carbon emissions reduction
plans and other climate-change-related adaptations, including reforestation,
reducing food waste, renewable energy production, carbon dioxide capture and
storage.
The report also indicates emissions are unlikely to continue increasing past
2030—a positive sign, according to spokesperson Simon Stiell, who spoke to
reporters Wednesday—although it’s not the “rapid downward trend” scientists say
is necessary to avoid “catastrophic” warming.
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KEY BACKGROUND
The study comes amid devastating wildfires this year that have scorched parts of
Europe, as well as the West Coast and Rocky Mountains, sweltering summer heat
waves and worldwide droughts and accelerated sea-level rise—all of which were
made worse by rising temperatures accelerated by climate change, scientists say.
In the U.S., White House officials estimate the Inflation Reduction Act passed
this summer will reduce America’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 (from
2005 levels). Scientists, however, doubt countries’ actions are enough to meet
the Paris Climate Agreement’s landmark goal of holding global temperatures to
1.5-degrees above pre-industrial levels.
CHIEF CRITIC
Republican lawmakers slammed the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes $360
billion to address climate change through measures to produce green energy,
arguing it will hurt American energy producers at a time when people are
struggling with rising gas prices. In an effort to gain support of moderate
Democrats, including West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, Democratic lawmakers
inserted provisions into the landmark legislation for investment in fossil fuels
and subsidies for new pipelines—a move that has also sparked pushback from
environmentalists, who claim it will help fossil fuel producers operate even
longer.
TANGENT
A study published in August in Nature Communications found major fossil fuel
companies are not doing enough to curb emissions either, finding their plans are
“incompatible” with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. The three
companies analyzed in the report—British Petroleum, Equinor and Shell—have all
set net-zero emissions goals, with Equinor and Shell planning to achieve it by
2050 while BP hopes to achieve it by 2050.
FURTHER READING
Current emissions pledges will lead to catastrophic climate breakdown, says UN
(Guardian)
‘Incompatible’: Fossil Fuel Giants’ Plans To Slash Greenhouse Gasses Won’t Reach
Paris Climate Goals, Study Finds (Forbes)
U.S. And China Emissions Caused $1.8 Trillion Each In Worldwide Economic Damages
Over 25 Years, Study Estimates (Forbes)
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Brian Bushard
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I am a Boston-based reporter. Before joining Forbes, I covered the environment,
local government and the arts for a small-town newspaper on Nantucket. My
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