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AUTOMOTIVE DECODED

Previous edition: 27 Nov 2024
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HYDROGEN SHOWDOWN: JAPAN VS. KOREA IN THE RACE FOR FCEV DOMINANCE

The global automotive industry is undergoing a revolution toward zero-emission
technology, and in Asia, Japan and South Korea are leading the race for
dominance in hydrogen-powered vehicles.

This rivalry is more than a market battle—it's a bid for energy independence and
environmental sustainability. FCEVs (fuel cell electric vehicles) offer several
advantages over traditional fossil-fuel vehicles and even BEVs (battery electric
vehicles), such as longer range and faster refuelling, making them a potentially
transformative solution, especially for long-haul and heavy-duty applications.



Despite its promise, hydrogen technology faces obstacles like high production
costs, limited infrastructure, and energy loss during hydrogen production. Japan
and South Korea are working to overcome these barriers through significant
investments and government support.

Japan’s Approach: Toyota’s Pioneering Vision

Japan was one of the earliest adopters of hydrogen technology. Toyota, the
nation's leading automotive giant, introduced the Mirai in 2014, making it one
of the world’s first mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Toyota has
doubled down on its hydrogen vehicle research, investing billions in fuel cell
technology for passenger and commercial vehicles. Toyota is also exploring
hydrogen applications beyond fuel cells, such as hydrogen combustion engines,
exemplified by the Corolla Cross H2 Concept, which provides a familiar driving
experience with reduced emissions. At the Japan Mobility Show in October 2024,
Toyota unveiled a compact, portable hydrogen tank system that simplifies
refuelling, signalling the potential for more compact and efficient hydrogen
vehicles.

Along with Toyota, other Japanese automakers such as Honda, have also entered
the hydrogen market. Although Honda previously offered the Honda Clarity FCEV,
which was discontinued in 2021, the company is now revitalising its hydrogen
strategy. Partnering with General Motors, Honda is focused on developing
cutting-edge fuel cell systems and new FCEV models, including the recently
launched CR-V e:FCEV for the U.S. and Japanese markets, reaffirming its
dedication to hydrogen technology.

Japan has also placed significant emphasis on building hydrogen infrastructure.
Supported by government policies and subsidies, Japan has prioritised expanding
its hydrogen infrastructure, aiming to establish 1,000 refuelling stations and
increase hydrogen supply to three million tons per year by 2030.

South Korea’s Strategy: Hyundai’s Global Ambitions

South Korea has responded to Japan’s lead in hydrogen technology by accelerating
its own hydrogen ambitions, with Hyundai at the forefront. Since launching the
Nexo FCEV in 2018, Hyundai has committed billions to establishing itself as a
global leader in hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2030, supported by the South
Korean government. In October 2024, Hyundai unveiled its third-generation
hydrogen fuel cell concept vehicle, the INITIUM, which boasts a targeted range
of over 650 kilometres and a maximum motor output of 150 kW. Hyundai aims to
bring a production model based on the INITIUM to market in early 2025, setting
new benchmarks in efficiency and performance for hydrogen-powered vehicles.

The South Korean government has ambitious plans to expand the domestic hydrogen
ecosystem, aiming to build over three hundred hydrogen refuelling stations by
2025 while exploring hydrogen fuel applications in public transportation and
industry. Hyundai has invested in fuel cell production facilities, with plans to
supply these systems to other manufacturers and industries worldwide. Beyond
automotive applications, South Korea’s strategy includes exporting hydrogen
technology globally.

Hyundai has already deployed several hydrogen trucks in Europe, highlighting its
focus on commercial vehicles, where hydrogen is especially suitable for
heavy-duty and long-range applications. This aligns with South Korea’s national
Green New Deal, a policy framework aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.

Competitive Advantages and Future Outlook

Despite progress, challenges remain for both countries. The high cost of
hydrogen production, the scalability of refuelling infrastructure, and the
expense of fuel cell systems pose significant hurdles. Additionally, hydrogen
technology must contend with the rapid advancement of BEVs, which are currently
more widely available and benefit from more established infrastructure.

Japan currently leads in FCEV infrastructure, while South Korea, driven by
Hyundai's strong export focus and success in commercial vehicles, holds an
advantage internationally. South Korea's output, projected to reach 44k units by
2030 compared to Japan’s 27k units, reflects Hyundai’s momentum in the market.
Both countries face challenges, including high production costs and competition
from BEVs, but they are also exploring green hydrogen and expanding global
partnerships to develop an international hydrogen supply chain.

As both nations accelerate their hydrogen investments, this competition is
driving innovation and global interest in hydrogen-powered vehicles. Though the
ultimate leader remains uncertain, Japan and South Korea’s rivalry promises a
major shift toward sustainable transportation, with significant implications for
the automotive industry and environmental sustainability worldwide.



Source: GlobalData

Kunat Tharasrisuthi, Manager, Asia Powertrain Forecast

 






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