mathematicalanalysisproject.adrianlancton.me Open in urlscan Pro
69.163.228.45  Public Scan

Form analysis
0 forms found in the DOM

Text Content

YOU AND GLOBAL WARMING

YOU AND GLOBAL WARMING


WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?

And how are you related to the problem?

Global warming refers to the long-term increase in Earth's average surface
temperature due to human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse
gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from industry,
agriculture, and the burning of fossil fuels. This warming is a facet of climate
change, which encompasses a wide range of changes beyond temperature increases,
such as shifting weather patterns. The enhanced greenhouse effect, caused by the
increased concentration of these gases in the atmosphere, traps more heat from
the sun, leading to global temperature rise. As the gases accumulate and persist
over time, they effectively create an insulating layer around the planet,
preventing heat from escaping into space, which in turn causes Earth's
temperatures to rise.

Temperature change across the years(source: Nasa):


Your daily actions, from the car you drive to the energy you consume, contribute
to the emissions that drive global warming. As the planet warms, you face the
ripple effects in the form of extreme weather, which can disrupt your life
through power outages, water shortages, or damaged property. The food you enjoy
is also at risk, as climate change impacts crop yields and raises food prices.
Your health is not immune either; warmer temperatures can exacerbate air quality
issues and increase the prevalence of diseases. In essence, the collective
footprint of our lifestyles feeds into a cycle where the consequences of a
warming planet circle back to affect the individual comfort, health, and
economic well-being of each of us. It's a global equation where your individual
input has a global output that, in turn, influences your local environment and
personal life.


WHAT CONTRIBUTES TO GLOBAL WARMING?


CANADIAN SPECIFIC DATA


DEFINITIONS OF SECTORS

Electricity and Heat:
This sector includes emissions from the generation of electricity and heat
through burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas. It is a major
source of CO2 emissions globally due to the reliance on fossil fuels for energy
production.

Transport:
This sector encompasses all emissions from the transportation of goods and
people by road, rail, air, and sea. Cars, trucks, trains, ships, and planes burn
fossil fuels, releasing CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Manufacturing and Construction:
This sector involves emissions from industrial processes and the construction
industry. It includes the production of materials such as cement, steel, and
plastic, which are energy-intensive and produce significant CO2 during
manufacture.

Agriculture:
While primarily associated with methane and nitrous oxide emissions, agriculture
also contributes to CO2 emissions through activities like deforestation for land
use, the use of fossil fuels in farming machinery, and soil management
practices.

Fugitive Emissions:
These emissions come from leaks and other irregular releases of gases. In the
context of climate change, this usually refers to methane and CO2 escaping from
oil and natural gas systems, coal mines, and other fossil fuel infrastructures.

Industry:
This sector includes emissions from industrial processes not included in the
manufacturing sector. It covers a wide range of activities, including mineral
production, chemical production, and the use of fossil fuels in various
industrial processes.

Buildings:
Emissions from buildings come from the use of fossil fuels for heating, cooling,
lighting, and cooking. Both residential and commercial buildings contribute to
CO2 emissions, especially when they are not energy-efficient.

Waste:
This sector includes emissions from the disposal and treatment of waste. While
most associated with methane, waste decomposition and incineration processes
also release CO2.

Land Use Change and Forestry:
This sector covers emissions from deforestation, land clearing, and the
degradation of soils. It also includes CO2 removals from afforestation and
reforestation activities.

Aviation and Shipping:
These are subsets of the transport sector, but they are often listed separately
due to their international nature and specific regulatory frameworks. Both
aviation and maritime transport rely heavily on fossil fuels and are significant
sources of CO2.

Other Fuel Combustion:
This category includes all other CO2 emissions from the combustion of fuels that
don't fall into the above categories. It might include things like fuel used in
various industrial processes, commercial and institutional settings, and
agriculture.


CANADIAN EMISSIONS CHANGE FROM 1990 TO 2020

Sector 1990 2020 Absolute Change Relative change Agriculture 50,640,000.00 t
63,280,000.00 t +12,640,000.00 t +25% Land Use Change and Forestry 83,690,000.00
t 53,840,000.00 t -29,850,000.00 t -36% Waste 17,690,000.00 t 19,010,000.00 t
+1,320,000.00 t +7% Buildings 64,580,000.00 t 73,970,000.00 t +9,390,000.00 t
+15% Industry 29,100,000.00 t 21,830,000.00 t -7,270,000.00 t -25% Manufacturing
And construction 77,010,000.00 t 67,140,000.00 t -9,870,000.00 t -13% Transport
128,560,000.00 t 163,500,000.00 t +34,940,000.00 t +27% Electricity And Heat
138,620,000.00 t 194,160,000.00 t +55,540,000.00 t +40% Fugitive Emissions
29,470,000.00 t 58,070,000.00 t +28,600,000.00 t +97% Other Fuel Combustion
7,380,000.00 t 16,760,000.00 t +9,380,000.00 t +127% Aviation And Shipping
5,680,000.00 t 2,520,000.00 t -3,160,000.00 t -56%


ANALYSIS

The table presents data on the change in greenhouse gas emissions by sector in
Canada from 1990 to 2020. It's evident that certain sectors have experienced an
increase in emissions over this 30-year period, while others have seen a
decrease. The largest absolute increase in emissions is seen in the 'Electricity
And Heat' sector, with a +55,540,000.0 t change, which is a +40% relative
increase. This could be attributed to a growing population and economic
development leading to higher electricity and heat demand. 'Fugitive Emissions'
and 'Other Fuel Combustion' also saw significant increases, by +97% and +127%
respectively, indicating a rise in emissions that are not captured by usual
combustion processes, likely due to increased industrial activities and energy
production methods that may not fully utilize or control all emissions.

Conversely, notable decreases are seen in 'Land Use Change and Forestry' with a
-36% change, and in 'Aviation And Shipping,' which decreased by -56%. The
reduction in 'Land Use Change and Forestry' could reflect effective forest
management and conservation policies, as well as changes in land use that lead
to less deforestation. The significant decrease in 'Aviation And Shipping'
emissions are due to improvements in fuel efficiency of planes and a shift
towards more sustainable practices within these industries. The 'Industry'
sector also shows a -25% relative change, suggesting advancements in industrial
processes and possibly the adoption of cleaner technologies.


42,100+
Endangered Species due to Climate Change.
36.6 Billion
tons of C02 emitted every year by human activity.
413 Billion
Tons of ice melted every year due to climate change.
>$50 Billion
Spent on reducing climate change yearly.


EMISSIONS CALCULATOR

The Emissions Calculator is an innovative tool designed to assess an
individual's carbon footprint. It operates by presenting a series of questions
related to daily life activities, such as transportation habits, energy usage,
dietary choices, and other relevant lifestyle factors. Based on the user's
responses, the calculator quantifies their annual CO2 emissions. What sets this
tool apart is its ability to offer personalized advice. After calculating the
emissions, it provides tailored suggestions on how the user can reduce their
carbon footprint. These recommendations are directly linked to the user's
specific habits and choices, making the guidance practical and actionable. This
tool serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking to understand and
improve their environmental impact.



HOW DOES IT WORK?

The calculator features an interactive 12-question module to estimate a user's
CO2 emissions. It starts by gathering data on monthly electricity, gas and oil
bills, annual car mileage, and frequency of short (under 4 hours) and long (over
4 hours) flights. Following these, it probes personal environmental practices
with four statements, asking users to rate their agreement on a scale of 1-10
which are as follows: I ride public transport regularly, I rarely purchase new
electronic devices, I buy locally sourced and seasonal food products and I
recycle and compost waste often. Additionally, two checkboxes inquire about
recycling habits for newspapers, and aluminum and tin.

The CO2 calculation algorithm operates in 2 phases. The first part, implementing
a formula developed by Alexandra Shimo-Barry incorporates responses from the
first six questions and the two checkboxes at the end. This phase employs a
specific formula: multiplying electric and gas bills by 105, oil bill by 113,
total yearly car mileage by 0.79, short flights (less than 4h) by 1100, long
flights (more than 4h) by 4400, adding 184 for non-recycled newspapers, and 166
for non-recycled aluminum and tin. The sum of these values represents the total
kilograms of CO2 emitted annually by the user.

In the second phase, the algorithm leverages an OpenAI API to analyze the four
personal lifestyle questions. This analysis provides custom feedback tailored to
the user's habits, guiding them towards more environmentally friendly practices.
This dual-phase approach offers both a quantitative assessment of impact and
qualitative, personalized advice for reducing one's carbon footprint.



NEIGHBORHOOD DATA ANALYSIS

I have asked some of my neighbors in my neighborhood to use my tool and find
their carbon footprint. Their information is as follows:


Neighboor Monthly Electric Bill CAD Monthly Gas Bill CAD Monthly Oil Bill CAD
Yearly Mileage CAD Number of Flights (4 hours or less) Number of Flights (4
hours or more) Recycle newspaper Recycle aluminum and tin CO2 footprint kg
CO2/year Category My family 150 90 0 40000 2 4 Y Y 76950 High Left neighbour 1
130 100 0 20000 2 0 Y Y 49100 High Right neighbour 1 170 120 0 80000 4 0 N Y
98216 High Left neighbour 2 95 65 0 5000 0 0 Y Y 21100 Average Right neighbour 2
195 125 0 10000 8 16 Y Y 121050 High




In my neighborhood, the trend shows an avarage of high-emissions category
households. This is significant as it shows how high an urban neighborhood's
emissions can be. I estimate that in high density communities, there will be a
lower carbon footprint per household as there is better access to public
services like transportation. Each individual's way of life and activity has a
direct effect on their carbon footprint. It is each of our's responsability to
form a concious way of life in order to collectively reduce global warming.



EMISSIONS CALCULATOR

Here is the emissions calculator. Use it to track your emissions and apply the
suggestions provided by it.


Use it by entering your information and waiting for the response. The tailored
feedback will pop up in a separate window while the calculated carbon footprint
will be seen at the bottom of the main window.




Click on button to download the calcutor, then execute it locally




DOWNLOAD NOW


WHAT MADE ME CHOSE THIS TOPIC?

The prevalence of global warming in the news and stories has become increasingly
noticeable, yet a significant number of people remain unaware of their personal
impact on climate change. My growing interest in this topic has led to a deeper
understanding of its severity, and it's been starting to realize the substantial
contribution we, as individuals, make to this issue. This revelation inspired me
to select global warming as my focus. My aim is to develop a concept tool,
accessible to millions worldwide, designed to track personal emissions. This
tool would not only quantify individual CO2 emissions but also raise awareness
about each person's role in addressing climate change.



CONCLUSION AND PREDICTIONS.

In this project, the complex relationship between everyday human activities and
climate change was demonstrated. The impact of our daily actions is tremendouse
and has been shown through an analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in different
sectors and an emissions calculator that I developed myself in order to help
people realize their impact on the world. I further expanded my analysis by
collecting emissions data from my neighborhood and processing it using my
calculator. This helped me find significant emissions paterns in my neighborhood
and allowed me to form a hypothesis about it. Though this project widely
represents for a large part of the world's population along with the calculator,
it has its limitations. Particularily it is only using looking at certain
emission categories. A more comprehensive calculator looks at a much wider set
of categories and at the full picture of carbon footprint (i.e. when you buy a
new electronic device, take into account the electricity consumption, the carbon
footprint to produce and transport the device, the carbon foot print to retire
the old device, etc.). The data collected in my neighborhood and the questions
in the calculator might not apply to everyone. Moving on, I predict in the
future that increasingly more and more people will become concious about global
warming and their effect on it and a substantial portion of the population will
make efforts to reduce personal emissions as much as they can. As trends already
show, I predict that there will be a continuous rise of technological
breakthroughs that bring innovative ways to reduce emissions to the public and
eventually form societies based only on green energy, transportation,
agriculture, etc. In closing, this project highlights the fact that a
sustainable future is very possible and puts emphasis on the importance of
individual and collective action in shaping a sustainable future.





To the top

©Adrian Maier 2023. Some elements are from w3.css
Citations:
“Finance & Justice | United Nations.” the United Nations,
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/raising-ambition/climate-finance. Accessed 5
December 2023. Iberdrola. “Species extinction from global warming.” Iberdrola,
https://www.iberdrola.com/sustainability/climate-change-endangered-species.
Accessed 5 December 2023. “Ice Sheets | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital
Signs of the Planet.” NASA Climate Change,
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/. Accessed 5 December 2023.
NASA. “Global Temperature | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the
Planet.” NASA Climate Change,
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/. Accessed 5 December
2023. Ritchie, Hannah, et al. “CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” Our World in
Data, http://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions. Accessed 7
January 2024.“Calculating your carbon footprint.” Just Energy,
https://justenergy.com/blog/how-to-calculate-your-carbon-footprint/. Accessed 8
January 2024.