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Euro area
Euro area economy
Research euro area - Still breathing
Research euro area - Still breathing

5.12.2024

The narrative on the euro area economy has changed from risks of too high
inflation to risks of too low growth. We have lowered the growth forecast for
early 2025 due to manufacturing challenges, cautious consumers, and a sluggish
German economy. Growth is expected to slowly improve throughout 2025, bolstered
by increasing real incomes and substantially lower monetary policy rates. We
expect the ECB to lower the deposit rate at each consecutive meeting until it
reaches 1.50% around next summer to support growth. The disinflationary process
is on track, with average inflation expected at 2% for 2025 and 2026, driven by
stable energy and food prices and core inflation hitting 2% next summer.




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