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INDUSTRY
3
ESKOM WARNS OF KOEBERG PROJECT RISK
Report indicates that power cuts will worsen over the next five years.
By Moneyweb 8 Nov 2022 00:01
The Koeberg nuclear power plant in Cape Town. Eskom says a two-year delay on
steam generator replacement will 'severely constrain the system'. Image:
AdobeStock
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A report by Eskom has warned about the impact of a delay on the multi-year
project to extend Koeberg’s life by a further 20 years.
Under the Grid Code, Eskom is required to file a medium-term system adequacy
outlook annually. The objective of these reports, says the utility, is “to
assess over a five-year period the electricity supply shortfall risks that may
arise based on foreseeable trends in demand and generation capacity in South
Africa”.
Its latest report warns that a two-year delay on the Koeberg project “will
further exacerbate the power supply constraints, leading to massive amounts of
unserved energy”. This scenario has been included as a realistic one in its
medium-term system adequacy outlook, it says, “based on recent developments”.
Read: Eskom, Nersa settlement may cost consumers dearly
Ordinarily, the country’s only nuclear plant would reach the end of its 40-year
design life in 2024. To extend this, it has begun a mammoth project to replace
the steam generators on both its units.
In all, six of these need to be replaced. There is also a regulatory process
underway with an application having been filed with the National Nuclear
Regulator.
Eskom had originally planned to undertake the steam generator replacement on
unit two during its refuelling outage from January. This was postponed as any
delays in completing the work – which were realistic – posed “significant risk”
to the grid.
Read: Winter worries: Eskom defers Koeberg steam generator replacement to August
2023
In the end, delays in bringing the unit back online after refuelling, and a far
less complex part replacement than the aborted steam generators, meant it was
still resynchronised to the grid four months later than planned.
No room for slippage
Unit one is scheduled to be taken offline soon for the replacement of its three
steam generators and is expected to be offline for at least eight months. A
similar long outage is planned for unit two at the end of next year.
In reality, there is little to no room for slippage on either of these projects.
The scenario in Eskom’s report illustrates the consequences of a shutdown of
unit one in July 2024 and unit two in November 2025.
Such a delay means Eskom will need an additional 15TWh (terawatt hours) of
supply per year – over and above the energy needed without any shift in
timelines on this project.
> In practical terms, there will be a shortfall of 1 860MW of capacity,
> equivalent to two stages of load shedding.
Already, the utility has publicly stated that it urgently needs a further 4
000MW to 6 000MW of generation capacity to be added to the grid as soon as
possible. This would push those figures to 6 000MW to 8 000MW.
The report does, however, caution that its base case is for “no impact” on the
nearly 2 000MW from Koeberg between now and 2027. In other words, it expects the
steam generator replacement projects at both units to be completed within the
required timelines, as well as no delays in the regulatory process.
The report recommends rather demurely that the utility places “more emphasis on
extending the life of Koeberg, as the loss of Koeberg units would significantly
impact adequacy in the short term”.
Read: South Africa’s nuclear sector has failed its test
Load shedding will get worse
Aside from Koeberg, the report effectively confirms that power cuts will worsen
over the next five years.
> Its worst-case scenario – with its coal fleet struggling at current levels and
> reasonable growth in demand – shows a gap of 18TWh next year. This shortfall
> in supply is equal to the entire Matla Power Station, or 3 450MW.
But, while the commissioning of outstanding Kusile units sees this improve in
this scenario by 2024, it steadily increases to 30TWh in 2027. This is because
of the planned shutdown of two units at Kriel, four at Arnot, eight at Camden,
six at Hendrina and two at Grootvlei over the next five years (most between 2025
and 2027).
In the best-case scenario, the shortfall ranges between a roughly balanced
system (in 2024) and 9TWh in 2027. To get to this requires the utility getting
its energy availability factor (EAF) up from an average of 58% to 67%. The
board, notably, has been given a target for EAF of 75%.
Maintenance not working
The report is somewhat scathing of the results of Eskom’s reliability
maintenance programme which aimed to do deep refurbishment and maintenance to
improve the performance of (in particular) the coal fleet.
It says the trend of outages has continued to increase which “suggests the …
programme in its current form may not be yielding desired outcomes”.
Read:
Eskom’s maintenance work not yielding results: Oberholzer [Sep 2022]
Eskom COO sees another 18 months of South Africa outages [Oct 2022]
“It is crucial the current maintenance regime is reviewed to improve its
efficacy.”
Renewables?
These scenarios exclude any new capacity from renewables beyond the five
confirmed projects outstanding – a solar photovoltaic (PV) plant, a concentrated
solar power (CSP) plant, as well as three smaller projects signed in June this
year under the emergency procurement programme. Once all of these are connected
to the grid (by early 2024), an additional 300MW will take the installed base of
renewables to 6 430MW.
(It has also not included the impact of private generation projects).
If 10GW of capacity under bid windows 5 to 8 of the Renewable Energy Independent
Power Producer Procurement (Reippp) programme is added, the gap in the
worst-case scenario narrows to between 7TWh and 9TWh from 2024. But this planned
capacity from the most recent Integrated Resource Plan (2019) is simply not
enough to fill the gap.
A lot rests on the interventions announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa, where
the allocated capacity in Bid Window 6 will be doubled to 5 200MW, as well as
substantial increases in future bid windows.
Read:
At last: CR throws the kitchen sink at load shedding [Jul 2022]
Eskom to procure emergency additional energy to ease load shedding [Sep 2022]
Eskom: 53GW of renewable energy needed to address SA’s electricity crisis [Oct
2022]
Ramaphosa’s emergency plan to tackle load shedding remains work in progress [Nov
2022]
Join our mailing list to receive top business news every weekday morning.
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casper1 6 days ago
Witness the death spiral of industrial South Africa !!!
Viva ANC Amandla and all !!!!
116
1
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Sensei 6 days ago
Let’s face facts. Everything, where the state is involved, poses a risk to the
economy and citizens’ well-being. The government itself acts as the biggest
impediment to economic growth and job creation.
It is through his power to appoint the government that the average voter turns
his own economic realities and living environment into a manifestation of his
mindset.
Coal power stations, the national grid, railway infrastructure, basic municipal
services, and a nuclear power station, in particular, are far too advanced and
sophisticated for the mindset of the average voter.
The voter won’t change to become more enlightened. Therefore the infrastructure
and the economic reality will have to adapt to darkness.
86
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beachcomber 6 days ago
I sincerely hope that the time has finally arrived, when the fact sinks in to
the befuddled brains of the voting public that Eskom and its masters, the ANC
cadre collective, are completely incapable of operating the creation and supply
of electricity to the nation and they kick them out at the earliest opportunity.
Billions are being spent on state controlled projects which could at the stroke
of a pen be channeled into subsidies for domestic and commercial self-generated
solar and wind energy developing huge (thanks Donald) local production and a
critical stimulus to the economy.
But no, instead they let the country crumble into chaos because if the lumpen
proletarian finally realise the the emperor has no clothes, their days of
status, luxury and bling will be over.
On way or the other, those days are coming.
44
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