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FLOOD OF CASH INTO US MONEY MARKET FUNDS COULD ADD TO BANKING STRAINS

Treasury secretary Janet Yellen warns over ‘structural vulnerabilities’ of
sector

Money market funds have drawn in more than $340bn since the beginning of March ©
Brendan McDermid /Reuters
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Kate Duguid and Harriet Clarfelt in New York and Colby Smith in Washington

March 31 2023
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news every morning.

The flood of cash pouring into US money market funds is unlikely to stop soon,
analysts and investors say, and has the potential to exacerbate strains in the
banking system.

The returns offered by money market funds, vehicles that invest largely in safe
assets such as short-term government debt, have soared far above the interest
rates banks pay to depositors, as the Federal Reserve rapidly raised borrowing
costs over the past year. Despite the yawning gap, it took the banking crisis
sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank to spark the recent stampede:
money market funds have drawn in more than $340bn since the beginning of March.



“People that were making half a per cent in bank accounts were ignoring the 4
per cent they could make in money market funds,” said Doug Spratley, head of US
money market trading at T Rowe Price. “And now they just got a big swift kick in
the pants.”

The recent flows into money market funds have drawn the attention of Treasury
secretary Janet Yellen, who on Thursday warned over the “structural
vulnerabilities” of the sector.

“If there is any place where the vulnerabilities of the system to runs and fire
sales have been clear-cut, it is money market funds,” she said in a speech at a
conference hosted by the National Associations of Business Economics. “The
financial stability risks posed by money market and open-end funds have not been
sufficiently addressed.”

Some experts have warned that shift into money market funds also further
threatens the stability of the banking sector, particularly the smaller regional
lenders that can least afford to increase the interest rates they offer to
account holders.



Crucially, much of the cash in money market funds ends up outside of the banking
system altogether because the funds are heavy users of a Fed facility that
offers generous interest rates for parking cash overnight at the central bank.



For Andrew Levin, who worked at the Fed for two decades, the unrelenting flow of
cash into money market funds and in turn the central bank’s overnight facility
is “an accident waiting to happen”.

Usage of the so-called reverse repo facility has climbed in recent weeks, with
daily levels running at about $2.3tn.

Levin, who now teaches at Dartmouth College, warned of added strain on smaller
lenders if more depositors park their funds into money market entities, which
eventually get stashed at the Fed. “Ironically for the Fed, which wants to try
to help the banking system and help keep [it] safe, its own standing facility
ends up being the weak link in all of this.”

Because money market funds are not deposit-taking institutions, their assets,
were they not in the Fed facility, would still be in the banking system. But
their use of the facility leaves banks collectively with fewer deposits, and
potentially disincentivised from lending.



Concerns about a downturn in the economy might mean that some banks “may not be
as eager to lend” anyway, suggested Tatjana Greil-Castro, co-head of public
markets at Muzinich, and “therefore they don’t need as many deposits”.



Even so, some analysts worry about the destabilising potential of further flows.
While the shift out of banks and into money market funds is one that typically
happens during every cycle of Fed interest rate rises, experts are suggesting
the move could persist even once the central bank ends its monetary tightening
and begins to lower borrowing costs.

Banks are in the middle of a “two-stage shift”, said Joseph Abate, a strategist
at Barclays in a note published on Wednesday. The first wave of outflows
happened as savers worried about the stability of their banks, a phenomenon
which drove assets in government money market funds to a record high of $4.3tn
this month, according to ICI data.

In the first two weeks of March, overall bank deposits in the US dropped by
$161bn, driven by outflows from smaller banks, according to Fed data.



The second shift, however, is only just beginning, as “sleepy depositors” —
until now little troubled by the widening gulf between yields on bank deposits
and those available elsewhere — awaken to that stark disparity.

Money fund balances have climbed roughly 20 per cent over the past four
rate-rising cycles, according to Abate, a move that would be equal to roughly
$1tn this time around. So far, they have risen by about $600bn during the
current cycle, suggesting there is more to come.

The recent ructions across the US banking sector also mean that even if banks
raise the interest rates they pay on deposits to better compete with funds,
savers may be deterred by the perceived risk in the system.

Because money market funds invest in short-dated government debt that is highly
sensitive to moves in Fed borrowing costs, “your yield is going to come down
with interest rates”, said Joseph D’Angelo, head of money markets at PGIM Fixed
Income. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean fund outflows, because you’re not
necessarily going to see deposit rates come up.”

“In all likelihood, I don’t see a lot of movement back.”







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