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site: media | arena: soccer | pageType: stories | section: | slug:
arsenal-vs-manchester-city-pep-guardiolas-left-back-experiment-is-what-stands-between-him-and-the-title
| sport: soccer | route: article_single.us | 6-keys:
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ARS
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1
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MCY
Manchester City

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ARSENAL VS. MANCHESTER CITY: PEP GUARDIOLA'S LEFT BACK EXPERIMENT IS WHAT STANDS
BETWEEN HIM AND THE TITLE


THE VISITORS SECURED A 3-1 VICTORY IN A CLOSE MATCH, BUT THERE ARE HUGE
QUESTIONS AT LEFT BACK

By James Benge
18 hrs ago • 6 min read
 * 
 * 
 * 

Getty Images

LONDON -- The supporters were streaming towards the exits well before the final
whistle. The action on the field had petered out to such an extent that the
60,000 in the stands were of far more interest than the 22 on the pitch. Oh and
Manchester City had scored three goals as they eased past Arsenal 3-1 on their
way to the top of the table.

But woe betide those who assume that this was a rerun of so many recent meetings
between these two. This was not your slightly older brother's Arsenal vs.
Manchester City. Pep Guardiola might have won again, his side claiming top spot
in the Premier League until Saturday lunchtime at least, but this was a contest
where his victory did not always seem guaranteed. Last season's loss in this
fixture was a January thriller that hit north London like a bolt from the blue.
Rodri's late winner in a 2-1 match did nothing to quell the optimism it
engendered. This was different. There was expectation this time. It wasn't met.
But, while supporters might have been crushed, nothing about this game ought to
disabuse them of the belief that they can at least stay in this race.

Certainly it will help Arsenal if Guardiola perseveres with the side who started
this contest. Ultimately this game was turned when the head coach concluded that
it was worth patching up the gaping hole that he had crafted in his side's
defense. Bernardo Silva might have lost City this game. He would ultimately have
a sizeable hand in them winning it.

CBS Sports has a brand new daily soccer podcast, covering everything you need to
know about the beautiful game. Make sure to give House of Champions a follow for
coverage of the biggest games, stories, transfer news with Fabrizio Romano, and
everything else going on in the world's most popular sport.




Selling Joao Cancelo certainly presented Guardiola with an intriguing conundrum,
how to find a left back in a squad whose only option was Sergio Gomez, a
youngster that looks like he will benefit from quite a lot of development. Few
assumed that the solution to this particular problem would come in the slight
form of Bernardo Silva, a player who seemed to personify his head coach's famous
line "what is tackles"?

At a push there is a case to be made that Bernardo could do a job in the games
where City expect to dominate territory and possession; if Cancelo was drifting
into midfield to create chances and play key passes why not replace him with a
player who does exactly that? When their opponents have the ball, however, it is
as if Guardiola has placed a giant neon sign on the left corner of his pitch,
"ATTACK HERE".

Bukayo Saka needed no second invitation. From the first minute Bernardo seemed
to have little idea how to stop the England international but by fouling him,
his eventual yellow card just before the break greeted with ironic cheers. It
was no great surprise that Bernardo couldn't defend Saka, much better players
than him have come up short this season. But it was not as if in possession he
was freed to aid City's build up. With and without the ball he functioned as far
more of an orthodox left back than even the likes of Cancelo or Nathan Ake do.



Twenty3

There had to be logic to this, something that convinced Guardiola not to simply
roll out the same approach to defending Saka that had been so supremely
effective a month less than a month ago in City's 1-0 FA Cup win. On that day
Ake shut down one of the Premier League's most deadly operators. Had City
persevered with Bernardo for more than the 60 minutes they gave him before
Manuel Akanji replaced Riyad Mahrez then further chances would surely have come.
And yet, by way of explanation all Guardiola really offered was praise for the
character of his repurposed full back.

"I used it many times in our career here, Fabian Delph played in that position,
Oleksandr Zinchenko played in that position," he said. "I just say thank you for
the commitment to try to do it.

"Bernardo has something special: personality and character. He started as a left
back, finished as a right winger. It shows how good they are as a player.
Normally a player thinks 'I'm center back'. He plays football. He understands to
play in any position because he's so smart."



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Bernardo certainly understood how to play when he was moved from the defense
into his more natural right wing role. It was the switch that allowed City to
crunch through the gears, the Portuguese international showing that footballing
intelligence to apply pressure to former teammate Zinchenko, drawing more of the
mistakes from Arsenal that would ultimately decide this game.

As Mikel Arteta noted after the game, there were spells when Arsenal "had them."
Saka was devastating down the right, while Zinchenko, Jorginho and Martin
Odegaard seemed to relish drawing the press only to slide through it. 

When Eddie Nketiah drew a clattering from Ederson and Saka converted the penalty
just before the break, City looked rattled, wasting as much time as possible in
an attempt to reach the halftime whistle all square. Had Nketiah taken the other
chances that came his way, this game might have pivoted. Twice he had found
himself unmarked for headed chances in the box. Neither was so easy that they
should have been considered guaranteed goals, but he should have hit the target
at least once, punishing City for their errors.



Whilst Arsenal as a whole are running slightly better than their expected goals
(xG) it is less than ideal that Nketiah is following in Gabriel Jesus' footsteps
by scoring fewer than the value of his xG. The pair have had shots worth 14.4
xG. They have scored nine goals and while over the course of a season one might
assume that they will progress towards the mean. It would have been a welcome
boon if Nketiah had done so tonight.

Because while he left goals on the table, City were remorseless in punishing
every Arsenal misstep. "It's exceptionally difficult to play at the level they
require you to play to have a chance to win," said Arteta "I thought in many
moments we did and we had them, but if you give three goals the way we did and
don't put away the big chances that we had, the margin for error is almost zero.
It's a shame because we really had them."

But, as Thierry Henry said of Manchester City, speaking on the UEFA Champions
League Post-Match Show (which you can catch on Paramount+), "Teams that win
titles don't lose control at any moment."



> "When you look at it, City, they showed why they are champions"
> 
> Thierry Henry thinks the financial allegations against Manchester City
> motivated them to victory but still tips Arsenal to win the title. 🏆
> pic.twitter.com/iMmqWCMzlw
> 
> — CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) February 15, 2023

Takehiro Tomiyasu's underhit backpass might have given Kevin De Bruyne a chance
but it would take something special to beat Aaron Ramsdale from range, on the
run, with a first time shot. Of course, he delivered. So did Bernardo, nicking
an undercooked Gabriel pass. Seconds later, via Erling Haaland and Ilkay
Gundogan, Jack Grealish was rolling a precise shot into the bottom corner.
Arsenal had helped City find their groove, it was then only a matter of time
before Haaland found goal number 26 in the Premier League this season.

That version of City look every inch the prohibitive title favorites, a team
locked into a groove with every player in a spot that heightens their talents.
Keep that up and it will take a momentous effort from Arsenal to even keep pace,
let alone pip them at the post.









2023 MLB DRAFT RANKINGS: LSU'S DYLAN CREWS, TENNESSEE'S CHASE DOLLANDER LEAD TOP
30 AS COLLEGE SEASON BEGINS


THERE'S PLENTY OF SEASON FOR PICKS TO RISE AND FALL BEFORE THE DRAFT IN JULY

By R.J. Anderson
3 hrs ago • 25 min read
 * 
 * 
 * 

Watch Now:

College baseball's regular season will get underway on Friday. In keeping with
tradition, that means it's time for us here at CBS Sports to celebrate the
occasion by recklessly sizing up the forthcoming MLB draft class.

Below you'll find our preseason top 30 list. (We'll also run updated rankings
closer to July's draft, when the Pirates pick first.) The ordering of the
players is based on a combination of where we expect them to be drafted and how
we view their comparative true talent levels. Bear in mind that balancing those
components is more art than science, meaning that you should mentally apply an
error bar to each ranking.

Our list was formed following conversations with MLB scouts, analysts, and
player development types. There's also a fair amount of firsthand observation
and personal bias mixed in, as well as statistical analysis and research into
historical draft trends and outcomes. This list probably won't look like those
published elsewhere. That's fine.

Our advice is to view these rankings -- especially the preseason list -- as a
snapshot in time. Players improve, injuries happen, situations change. Some
players will fall off the list, others will jump onto it. That's just how these
things go. We know we're going to be wrong about a fair amount of these players
and rankings; we're simply doing the best we can with the information that we
have. 



Now, with all the bloviating out of the way, let's get to the good stuff.


1. DYLAN CREWS, OF, LSU

> Dilly Dilly
> 
> 📺 SECN+ pic.twitter.com/pPQ70B9qI4
> 
> — LSU Baseball (@LSUbaseball) March 11, 2022

Crews is the definitive draft prospect of the Pandemic Era. Had the world not
closed down in March 2020, shuttering his high school senior season in the
process, he would have had time to recover from a slow start to the year. In
turn, he would have been drafted highly enough to justify signing to begin his
career. But the world did close down in March 2020, and Crews opted during the
summer to withdraw his name from the draft and attend LSU. He's since blasted
collegiate pitching, compiling a .356/.458/.677 slash line with 40 home runs in
125 games. Some evaluators who spoke to CBS Sports granted him 70-grade
projections for both his hit and power tools, a nod to his All-Star potential at
bat. What's more is there's a belief he could begin his career in center field,
even if his defense is never considered Bourjosian. That combination inspired
one veteran scout to declare Crews as the most obvious No. 1 pick since Bryce
Harper. Others are more open to the possibility that someone else (ahem, Chase
Dollander) overtakes him for the pole position by summertime. Either way, it
would take another act of God for Crews to fall out of the top three.


2. CHASE DOLLANDER, RHP, TENNESSEE

> Chase Dollander's 11Ks.
> 
> Fastball was 95-97mph, T98mph. ⛽️🔥 pic.twitter.com/E3NCPZQYz5
> 
> — Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 20, 2022

Dollander joined the Volunteers prior to last season by way of Georgia Southern.
That proved to be a wise decision, as he subsequently put himself in the running
for the top pick by bullying good hitters with his elite arsenal. He struck out
108 batters in 79 innings, including 52 over 43 frames versus SEC foes.
Dollander's fastball touches into the upper 90s, but his best pitches are his
devastating breaking balls: a curve he uses to change eye levels, and a slider
he pairs well with the aforementioned heat. It is worth noting that Dollander's
fastball hasn't missed as many bats as the velocity suggests it should. One
veteran scout proposed that his lack of whiffs could be blamed on Tennessee's
predilection for pitching down in the zone; another said that collegiate hitters
are likely sitting on the heater, knowing it represents their best chance to
make contact. Whatever the case, the more pressing concern here has to do with
his limited track record. Dollander hasn't even thrown 120 innings in his
collegiate career. For reference, Kumar Rocker threw more than that his final
season at Vanderbilt. If Dollander can make a full slate of starts, it seems
certain that he'll be the first pitcher (and perhaps even the first player)
picked in July.


3. WYATT LANGFORD, CF, FLORIDA

The Gators have had five players drafted in the top 10 since 1990. They should
add at least one more to that total come July. Langford is the total package
offensively. He commands the zone; he strikes the ball with authority; and he
makes contact at an above-average clip (his strikeout-to-walk ratio in SEC play
was 1.28). Scouts project Langford to become at least a plus hitter with respect
to his average and his slugging outputs, and if on-base chops were considered a
tool, he'd fetch a plus grade there, too. Defensively, he played left field last
year out of deference to a pair of top-70 picks in Sterlin Thompson (now of the
Rockies) and Jud Fabian (Orioles). One veteran evaluator estimated Langford has
a coin flip's chance of making center field his own for the long haul; should
said coin land the wrong way, he has the arm for right. Langford is almost
certain to go in the top five, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he finds
himself in the running for the top overall pick, depending on financial demands
and how the Pirates want to divvy up their bonus pool.




4. JACOB GONZALEZ, SS, MISSISSIPPI

One trick teams employ when evaluating SEC-based hitters, such as Gonzalez, is
isolating their in-conference performance from their overall line. The thinking
goes that if a player can produce against the best talent the college circuit
has to offer, then they'll fare just fine in pro ball. Gonzalez, predictably,
did well when facing his in-conference peers -- so well, in fact, that his OPS
was higher against SEC pitchers (.974) than versus everyone else. Factor in how
scouts believe he'll remain playable at shortstop, even if he never ascends to
Gold Glove Award status, and you have the makings of a top-five pick who could
go as high as the top three depending on how the spring plays out.


5. MAX CLARK, CF, FRANKLIN COMMUNITY HS (IN)

Clark is a potential five-tool player (in the "above-average" sense, not in the
"all-elite" sense) who could both bat near the top of a lineup while playing
center field. At the plate, Clark shows off very fast hands and makes a lot of
contact without often expanding his strike zone. There is disagreement on
exactly how much power his game will feature. Slugging just isn't his métier at
present, and he doesn't have the kind of frame that indicates he'll pack on
muscle as he matures. (That still leaves the door open for swing and/or
philosophical changes, of course.) Luckily, Clark's other tools are more certain
-- he has well-above-average speed and arm strength, which should enable him to
thrive in center field -- and provide him a wide berth even if he tops out as a
gap-to-gap hitter. He's committed to Vanderbilt, but he's unlikely to ever don
the black and gold. 


6. WALKER JENKINS, OF, SOUTH BRUNSWICK HS (SC)

In case you couldn't tell, it's a great draft for top-notch outfielders. Jenkins
has the misfortune, if it can be described as such, of being ranked the least
famous of the big four. He's still a good prospect who ought to come off the
board sometime over the course of the first five to 10 picks, but he does have a
few things working against him that the other outfielders don't: he broke his
hamate bone last summer, and he seems more certain to slide to a corner. (He has
the arm for right, so no big bother there.) To Jenkins' credit, he has a pretty
left-handed swing and plus-plus raw juice, and scouts expect him to develop into
an above-average hitter at the big-league level. He has an outstanding
commitment to the University of North Carolina, but he won't need it.




7. HURSTON WALDREP, RHP, FLORIDA

> Hurston Waldrep, Wicked Breaking Balls (FB T98 mph) 🤢
> pic.twitter.com/dRqUEJaA6q
> 
> — Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 7, 2022

Last season, the highest strikeout rate among qualified collegiate starters
belonged to Cooper Hjerpe, the funky Oregon State lefty-turned-22nd pick in the
draft. Waldrep sported the second highest K rate, punching out nearly 37 percent
of the batters he faced for Southern Mississippi. He's since transferred to
Florida, where he'll get to admire the Tom Petty Tree and face stiffer
competition than what Conference USA had to offer. OK, so the Tree's name is
apocryphal, but the part about the SEC? That's legitimate. How Waldrep fares at
the higher difficulty level will dictate if he challenges John Burke and A.J.
Puk for the distinction of being the highest drafted Gators pitcher since 1990.
(Burke and Puk were each picked sixth.) Waldrep's stuff would seem to give him a
real chance at unlocking a room at the top of the world. His fastball sits in
the mid-90s and his slider could become a signature outpitch at the next level.
He'll need to prove that he has the command (his delivery resembles Jack
Leiter's, except with an over-the-top release point) and the wherewithal to
properly deploy those offerings against SEC lineups. Should Waldrep succeed on
those fronts, he'll validate this admittedly aggressive ranking. 


8. ARJUN NIMMALA, SS, STRAWBERRY CREST HS (FL)

Here's one for the dreamers, the poets, the statistical modelers in the crowd.
Nimmala is a walking helium tank. He's a smooth-fielding shortstop whose glove
earns plus projections from scouts. He shows promise at the plate, too,
including impressive bat speed. Multiply those loud tools by his extreme youth
(he won't turn 18 until months after draft night) and you have the right
conditions for him to float up preference lists as the spring burns into summer.
Nimmala needs to add strength and needs to rein in his free-swinging ways to
maximize his output. Therein is the beauty of his birthdate: it's easier to
envision him doing just that before the indeterminable future moment when he's
no longer a prospect. To paraphrase J.G. Ballard, being hyper-realistic about
everything is too simple a get-out. We're living a little by ranking Nimmala
highly before his breakout begins. Here's hoping we avoid the crash.


9. RHETT LOWDER, RHP, WAKE FOREST

To watch Lowder pitch is to gain an appreciation for what it might look like if
Lance McCullers Jr. (or, someone with his haircut anyway) attempted to recreate
Marcus Stroman's delivery from memory. Likewise, to watch Lowder pitch is also
to gain an appreciation for how he became the first Demon Deacon to ever win the
ACC's Pitcher of the Year Award.  He amassed a 3.08 ERA and a 4.04
strikeout-to-walk ratio over 16 starts last season, all the while generating 50
percent ground balls. He did it by exhibiting average or better command over a
good three-pitch mix, including two quality secondary offerings. Lowder is
highly unlikely to match or top the Wake Forest record for highest player
drafted (Kyle Sleeth went No. 3 in 2003), but he'll check in second if he's
selected higher than 17th. A good, healthy campaign should ensure as much.




10. ENRIQUE BRADFIELD, CF, VANDERBILT

When ought teams consider drafting a player most often compared to Myles Straw?
Bradfield is as fast as lightning, but his poor power projection makes him twice
as frightening to some evaluators. He's an elite-level defender and baserunner
with excellent career marks (.327 average, more walks than strikeouts) against
the toughest competition on the college circuit. He didn't hit at all during an
11-game stint in the Cape Cod League, however, and skeptics viewed that
lackluster run as confirmation he'll struggle with a wood bat. Nevertheless,
even those dubious about Bradfield's offensive upside concede this much: he'll
likely appeal to the bloc of teams picking late in the top 10 whose processes
are as outdated as a laugh track. By the way, while the actual decision-making
calculus is far more complex than the following tidbit suggests, it's perhaps
worth noting that Straw has already accumulated more Wins Above Replacement than
13 of the last 15 players selected 10th overall, as well as 18 of the last 20
players picked 15th. There are worse fates.


11. JACOB WILSON, SS, GRAND CANYON

Herman Melville once wrote that the easiest thing in the world is for a man to
look as if he contains a great secret. Wilson validated the claim over the
summer, leaving scouts wondering if they had misjudged him. They knew he was the
toughest collegiate to strike out (going down the hard way in just 2.5 percent
of his plate appearances), and they appreciated his calm presence at shortstop,
no doubt inherited from his father Jack. But they also believed he had a limited
ceiling, owed to his well-below-average power projection. Even with the benefits
of an aluminum bat and the WAC offensive environment, Wilson's maximum exit
velocity last season would have ranked near the bottom of the big-league
leaderboard. So, it surprised scouts when he slugged more than expected during a
week-long stint with Team USA. Was Wilson's power barrage a small-sample mirage,
or a tease that he's on the verge of a breakout? Rather than allowing faith to
oust fact, or fancy to oust memory, expect scouts to decide after giving Wilson
a long, fresh-eyed look this spring.


12. MATT SHAW, SS, MARYLAND

> What a play by Matt Shaw to start this one! #DirtyTerps
> pic.twitter.com/t3p4TBq29W
> 
> — Maryland Baseball (@TerpsBaseball) May 9, 2022

Shaw enjoyed a breakout season for the Terrapins in multiple respects in 2022.
Offensively, he raised his OPS by 34 points (up to .986) and more than tripled
his home-run total in just 77 additional plate appearances. Defensively, he
played shortstop instead of splitting time between second, third, and left
field, the way he had the year prior. Shaw even fared well enough at the six to
convince scouts he should begin his career there. That's an important
development because he otherwise fits the classic collegiate middle infielder
mold of having a high floor and a low ceiling. To put it in a rhyme: no carrying
tools that wow and awe, just 45s and up for Mr. Shaw; major-league stardom is
unlikely to click, yet he'll be deemed worthy of a first-round pick.




13. AIDAN MILLER, 3B, MITCHELL HS (FL)

Clark and Jenkins will receive most of the ink when it comes to top prep bats in
this class, but don't overlook Miller as a potential top-10 pick. He's a
well-constructed third baseman who should at least begin his professional career
at the position. His best position, though, might be in the batter's box. Miller
has big-time bat speed and projects for above-average power output. He does tip
his barrel during his swing, pointing it toward right field as he loads, but
that kind of stuff matters only when it matters (e.g., when someone
underperforms).The idealized outcome here is a third baseman with
middle-of-the-order potency. Miller may have an outstanding commitment to
Arkansas, but he seems unlikely to ever step foot on campus. 


14. BRAYDEN TAYLOR, 3B, TCU

Sometimes in player evaluation, as with poetry and love, it's the unsaid that
speaks the loudest. Ask a scout about Taylor and they'll likely respond with a
variation of "he's a good hitter." That says something about his bat -- his
glove, too. Taylor has hit .319/.450/.475 with nearly 20 more walks than
strikeouts and possibly more liners than grounders in two seasons at TCU. Some
evaluators peg him for a plus hit tool at maturation, giving him one of the
highest offensive floors in the class outside of the upper crest. He isn't
ranked higher because he's not as skilled with the leather. Taylor is considered
to be a better athlete than, say, Jace Jung (the 12th pick in last year's
draft), but he'll be doing well to grade as an average second baseman. The
takeaway here, then, is that people will continue to find ways to avoid talking
about his glove for as long as he keeps hitting. If he stops? Then all anyone
will focus on when they look at his game will be on the negative space that is
his defense. 


15. TRAVIS HONEYMAN, OF, BOSTON COLLEGE

> Travis Honeyman had a day! Leadoff man homered twice and went 4-for-4 in 18-8
> win at USF.
> 
> Eagles and Bulls back at it today at 2 p.m. >>
> https://t.co/5zpEVEWltupic.twitter.com/D3sUrQvy9o
> 
> — Boston College Baseball (@BCBirdBall) March 9, 2022

The Eagles have had six players drafted in the first or supplemental rounds
since 2004, including Sal Frelick just two years ago. Honeyman should make it
seven come July. He raised his stock in last summer's Cape Cod League, playing a
fine center field while hitting .289/.400/.530 with four home runs across 24
games. Even if some teams don't regard Honeyman as a long-term center-field
option, he offers a good approach and bat-to-ball skills along with enough
athleticism and data to justify popping him in round one.




16. THOMAS WHITE, LHP, PHILLIPS ACADEMY (MA)

White will enter the spring regarded as the best left-handed prospect in the
class. It's for good reason. He's tall and projectable, with a delivery that can
be described as fluid even if his arm action is longer than Marquee Moon's
titular track. Stuff-wise, his fastball was consistently clocked in the mid-90s
at last summer's Perfect Game All-American Classic, and he's shown a distinct
feel for spinning the ball. Scouts believe White has room to grow, too. He
should gain velocity as he adds muscle, and his command may take a step forward
if he makes his delivery more radio-friendly. White has a commitment to
Vanderbilt he'll need to be convinced to forgo, but that shouldn't be a problem
given that he has the makings of at least a middle-of-the-rotation starter.


17. NOBLE MEYER, RHP, JESUIT HS (OR)

We stress it every spring and again every summer. Draft history is chock full of
reasons to not take a high-school right-hander in the first round. For as long
as people still buy lottery tickets, cigarettes, and bitcoin, it feels safe to
assume that someone will scoff at the probabilistic analysis and take Meyer
early. After all, picking Mick Abel (also from Jesuit High School) and Andrew
Painter in the first round has worked out fine for the Phillies. Why can't it
succeed here? Don't you know that Meyer has broad shoulders and a gangly
6-foot-5 frame? Or that he was already pitching into the upper-90s during last
summer's Perfect Game National Showcase? He even complements his heat with a
promising slider. And sure, Meyer has an extremely long arm action and he throws
from a low slot, but his delivery looks effortless and low slots are en vogue
right now, man. Abiding by a blanket rule in something as chaotic as the draft
is sort of silly anyway. You don't really want to be the person who passed on
Meyer because of Kohl Stewart, Tyler Kolek, Riley Pint, whomever -- not if he
flowers like he might. When you get down to it, that's the crux of this
Kierkegaardian dilemma: draft Meyer or don't draft Meyer. You'll regret both.


18. PAUL SKENES, RHP, LSU

Skenes was part of the summer transfer bonanza that also saw the Tigers import
infielders Tommy White and Ben Nippolt, and pitchers Thatcher Hurd and Christian
Little. He comes by way of the Air Force Academy, where he was a two-way player.
Last season, he posted a 2.73 ERA and a .314/.412/.634 slash line with 13 home
runs. Scouts prefer him on the mound, as he combines a power forward's frame
(6-foot-6, 235 pounds) with a power pitcher's arm. His fastball routinely clocks
into the upper-90s, and he deploys a quality changeup to speed up bats. If this
were 15 years ago, that would be enough to guarantee him a top-10 selection. The
industry is awash in ball-tracking information these days, however, and fancies
itself more enlightened about What Really Works. That could be an issue for
Skenes. Some evaluators have expressed concern about his arsenal's viability
versus better competition because of underlying factors. His fastball, for
example, possesses an unfavorable spin axis. Can that be fixed? Will it be? It
sure doesn't hurt that Skenes will be working with pitching coach Wes Johnson,
formerly of the Twins. Still, it's up to every team to make the call on a
case-by-case basis. For now, we're OK fading Skenes. If he has another monster
season, this time with an SEC backdrop, none of this will matter and he'll
catapult into the top 10 anyway.




19. WILL SANDERS, RHP, SOUTH CAROLINA

> Will Sanders, 14 Ks. pic.twitter.com/jhPSYWrQWt
> 
> — Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 5, 2022

Sanders has the body and the arsenal to move into the middle of the first round
by July. He's listed at 6-foot-6, and he's filled out during his time in
Columbia. He throws strikes and generates ground balls with a broad arsenal,
including a fastball that he can push into the upper-90s. He's even had some
standout performances, notching double-digit strikeouts last season in starts
against Vanderbilt, Florida, and Clemson. Sanders isn't higher on this list
because we have reservations about his splits. In 10 conference starts, he
posted a 4.24 ERA and a 2.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio, as opposed to a 1.97 ERA
and a 3.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five non-conference assignments. Some
disparity is to be expected, especially when dealing with an SEC-based player,
but teams are ever mindful about how players perform against top competition.
Sanders has fallen short in that respect, making it tough to rank him higher for
now. 


20. JUARON WATTS-BROWN, RHP, OKLAHOMA STATE

Watts-Brown improved his stock last year over 23 combined appearances at Long
Beach State and in the Cape Cod League. He punched out more than 35 percent of
the batters he faced overall, with his 36.8 percent K rate during the regular
season ranking him third among qualified arms. (Behind a past first-round pick,
Cooper Hjerpe, and a future one, Hurston Waldrep.) Watts-Brown possesses a
balanced arsenal, including a low-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. He
does need to improve his location, but there's reason to think he has the
athleticism to do just that: he received accolades in three different sports in
high school. Some scouts are taking a wait-and-see approach with Watts-Brown's
move to the Big 12; if he throws strikes a touch more often this spring, they
won't be waiting long to see him picked in July.


21. TANNER WITT, RHP, TEXAS

You won't see Witt on a mound to begin the season. He underwent Tommy John
surgery last March, guaranteeing him at least a 12-month gap between
appearances, if not longer; MLB teams have grown more conservative in their
recovery expectations, with most clubs these days giving their pitchers 14
months to make it from tip to tail. It's to be seen if Witt returns to the
Longhorns staff as summer nears, or if he decides to stick to side sessions, à
la Connor Prielipp last year. (Prielipp, once considered a potential top-10
pick, was drafted 48th overall.) When Witt has been healthy, he's intrigued
scouts with a large frame (his father Kevin was a hulking first baseman) and the
makings of a quality arsenal, including a hammer breaking ball. If he can
provide teams with some proof of life, whatever that entails given his recovery
progress, he might still go in the first round to a team seeking a value pick.




22. JACK HURLEY, CF, VIRGINIA TECH

You're not experiencing déjà vu; the Hokies might actually produce a first-round
center fielder in consecutive drafts after the Royals nabbed Gavin Cross with
the ninth pick last July. Hurley had a banner 2022, homering 14 times and even
posting a higher OPS than Cross did a year earlier. Sure, comparing the two is a
little lazy, but let's not turn the dial just yet. Hurley is more athletic than
Cross, giving him a better chance at sticking in center for the long haul;
conversely, Cross had a better approach and more appreciable feel for contact
than Hurley does, making him a surer quantity offensively. If Hurley can take a
step forward in those areas, he'll find himself jockeying for a spot in the top
10.


23. MITCH JEBB, SS, MICHIGAN STATE

> Mid 2nd | MSU 3, PSU 2
> 
> Spartans take the lead on a 2-run single by Jebb, driving in Vradenburg and
> Ahn
> 
> Cook back to bump for B2nd.#GoGreen | #REACH | @jebb_mitch
> pic.twitter.com/kJ3qtahCeG
> 
> — Michigan State Baseball (@MSUBaseball) May 9, 2022

The Spartans haven't produced a first-round pick since Mark Mulder in 1998 --
they haven't graduated a first-round hitter since Kirk Gibson in 1978. Jebb has
a chance to end both droughts. He's a lefty-hitting speedster who managed two
impressive feats last season: 1) he made contact on more than 90 percent of his
swings on in-zone pitches; and 2) he walked twice as often as he struck out.
Jebb then lit up the Cape Cod League, batting .356/.429/.490 with 13 extra-base
hits and 26 stolen bases in 38 contests. His game isn't going to appeal to
everyone. He has an odd-looking swing, and it's possible that he'll move off the
infield as a professional, perhaps to center, where his speed could translate to
above-average range. A team who divines their draft board through the use of
algorithms could fall in love with his foundational offensive traits, however,
maybe even envisioning him as the next Steven Kwan. Jebb won't go early enough
for the school to be renamed Mitchigan State, but he might force new fun facts
about the Spartans' draft history into circulation. 


24. BLAKE MITCHELL, C, SINTON HS (TX)

You have to go back to 2001, when the Twins made Joe Mauer the top pick, to find
a first-round prep catcher who a) stuck behind the plate and b) produced more
than 10 career Wins Above Replacement. In other words, drafting a high-school
backstop early produces a hit as often as Papa Roach. That doesn't stop teams
from deluding themselves each summer into thinking this time will be different.
Mitchell, a two-way player scouts prefer in the squat, stands to benefit from
some club's false impression. He's coming off a good summer with Team USA's U18
squad, and scouts believe he can blossom into a solid backstop who offers plus
power from the left side. Mitchell remains committed to Texas, but don't expect
him to throw up the horns anytime soon if he continues to outpace Virginia's
Kyle Teel as the draft's best catcher.




25. CADE KUEHLER, RHP, CAMPBELL

Kuehler, at 6-foot and 215 pounds, is built like a linebacker. His arsenal is
appropriately hard-hitting, complete with two potential plus pitches in a
mid-90s fastball and slider. He uses them to good effect, as last season he
decleated more than 31 percent of the batters he faced. Precision is not in his
playbook, though, and he'll enter the year with a career collegiate walk rate
around 11 percent. (For context, only one qualified MLB starter last season
cleared 10 percent.) It's unclear if Kuehler can blitz the zone more effectively
heading forward: his delivery has effort to it, along with a very short arm
stroke and some extreme corkscrew action. The Fighting Camels had two players
selected in the first round last summer, shortstop Zach Neto (No. 13, Angels)
and right-hander Thomas Harrington (No. 36, Pirates); if Kuehler can tackle his
command woes, he could split the gap come July.


26. WALKER MARTIN, SS, EATON HS (CO)

Over the last decade, front offices have become more aware of how age can inform
a prospect's development. That, in turn, has impacted the way evaluators value
older high-school players. Being the best 19-year-old in a given class anymore
is akin to being a king without a lifetime grant of tonnage and poundage: it's
not ideal, even if there are worse fates to be found. It's trickled down to how
outsiders rank these players, too. Want evidence? Consider that Martin is the
only player on this list (or in Baseball America's initial top 200 rankings) who
will be 19 years old on draft night. Everyone else will fall into two bins: at
most 18, or at least 20. What makes Martin the white crow of this class? Two
things. First, his at least average power projection that stems from his frame
and his swing; and second, his chances of sticking on the left side of the
infield, albeit likely third base. That combination should be enough for some
club to take him in the first round or two. Just don't expect a model-based
organization to deign themselves by being the ones to do it.


27. ROCH CHOLOWSKY, SS, HAMILTON HS (AZ)

If you can play a good shortstop, you're going to be drafted relatively early.
Cholowsky can play a good shortstop. His hands and his feet work well, and he
has above-average arm strength. (He's also been regarded as a three-star
quarterback, according to 247 Sports.) Offensively, Cholowsky remains a work in
progress. He has a projectable frame and ample bat speed, and he keeps the
barrel tight to his body throughout his swing. He'll need to work on his
approach to maximize his output, but his glovework grants him a high floor and
there's enough upside here to envision him going in the first round. Cholowsky
has a commitment to UCLA to uphold if he slips too far.


28. COLE CARRIGG, UTL, SAN DIEGO STATE

> Catching up on the veritable cornucopia of highlights from the top of the
> sixth. Here's @CarriggCole's straight steal of home just prior to Leonhardt's
> two-run double. #GoAztecs pic.twitter.com/WnGb8f5U9p
> 
> — San Diego State Baseball (@AztecBaseball) March 23, 2022

Carrigg is the toughest rank in the class. He's a protean defender who last
season logged five or more appearances at each of the following positions:
shortstop, second base, center field, and catcher. (Although it may read like a
joke, we feel obligated to note that he pitched only once.) He's not just a warm
body standing at those spots, either. He displays actual competency, suggesting
he could turn some stress-addled manager concerned with his dwindling
substitution options into the Sleepytime Tea Bear by offering maximum
versatility. That's all good and well, but what about his offense? Well, he
doesn't hit the ball hard, at all, and last season he walked in just five
percent of his trips to the plate. In so many words, his bat is as green as a
boomslang. If you're an optimist, you look at Carrigg's projectable frame and
hope he'll add some strength. If you're a pessimist, you look at Carrigg's track
record and hope other teams are optimists so you can land a player you actually
want. The scouts who like him love him. We're not ready to commit like that.


29. COLIN HOUCK, SS, PARKVIEW HS (GA)

Houck, a Mississippi State commit who was also sought-after for his
quarterbacking abilities, has a broad skill set. He runs well, he throws well,
and he might even hit well. He has a no-frills swing with enough bat speed to
think he'll grow into at least fringe-average thump. Defensively, Houck should
provide good defense on the left side of the infield, whichever of the positions
he ends up occupying. Sometimes teams are content to let this kind of player
prove themselves in a college setting. For now, we think Houck is appealing
enough to sneak himself into either the first or the supplemental round.


30. ERIC BITONTI, SS, AQUINAS HS (CA)

The final spot is always reserved for either promoting a pet favorite or taking
the coward's way out on a polarizing player. This is the latter. Bitonti had a
rough summer, yet it's easy to envision him working his way back into a
first-round grade between now and July. He's built like a left-handed Kris
Bryant, and his mimicry extends to near-elite raw power and a likely home at
third base. As an added bonus, he won't turn 18 until November, making him all
the more attractive to model-directed organizations. Alas, it's not all upside
and Elmore Leonard-written dialogue here. He swings and misses a lot, and some
teams might see him sliding to a different corner early in his career, muting
his long-term positional value. We noted that it's easy to envision him working
his way back into a first-round grade between now and July; ditto for him
falling far enough down boards that he takes his talent to Oregon and tries to
rebuild his stock on campus. Hey, it's not the end of the world if that happens.
Just go back and read about Dylan Crews' last few years.


















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