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Markets
Economics


WALL STREET SOUNDS A LOUDER RECESSION CALL AFTER FED RATE HIKE

 * Guggenheim CIO, economists among those seeing contraction
 * Federal Reserve raised interest rates most since 1994

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WATCH: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks about the decision to raise
its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point.Source:
Bloomberg
By

Katia Dmitrieva

+Follow
June 15, 2022, 9:32 PM GMT


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Analysts increasingly see a recession looming in the US following the Federal
Reserve’s biggest increase in interest rates since 1994 and signs of weaker
consumer spending. 

The Fed hiked its policy rate by 75 basis points Wednesday to a range of 1.5% to
1.75%, as officials intensified their battle against inflation that’s remained
stubbornly high. 

Wells Fargo & Co. now forecasts a “mild recession” starting in mid-2023, as
inflation becomes more entrenched in the economy and eats into consumer spending
power -- and as the Fed takes more aggressive steps to address it. Meanwhile,
Moody’s Analytics said that chances of a soft landing are lower.




“The Federal Reserve is going to hike interest rates until policymakers break
inflation, but the risk is that they also break the economy,” Ryan Sweet,
Moody’s Analytics head of monetary policy research, said in a research note.
“Growth is slowing and the effect of the tightening in financial market
conditions and removal of monetary policy have yet to hit the economy.”



US retail sales fell for the first time in five months in May as higher prices
hit consumer pocketbooks. Also on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
cut its estimate for second quarter growth to 0%. And Guggenheim Chief
Investment Officer Scott Minerd said the US may already be in a recession, given
the slowdown in consumer spending. 




An growing number of economists have recently said a contraction next year would
be difficult to avoid. In his note Wednesday, Wells Fargo’s Jay Bryson said he
was expecting a soft landing just a week or so ago -- but now his base scenario
is for a mild recession.



At the same time, the unemployment remains historically low and while jobless
claims rose to a five-month high last week, the labor market remain tight. That
strength should support additional spending and keep any economic contraction
from being too deep, according to Wells Fargo.

Read More: A Fed-Triggered Recession Threatens Biden’s White House Survival



A downturn by the start of 2024, barely on the radar just a few months ago, is
now close to a three-in-four probability, according to the latest estimates by
Bloomberg Economics.

A recession is typically defined as a decline in overall economic activity
that’s broad, and lasts more than a few months. The US just emerged from the
deepest slump in the post-WWII period in 2020, after the Covid-19 pandemic hit.





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