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PROFITING FROM HALLOWEEN: IT’S IN THE BAG!

By Jim Pearce • October 31, 2024 • Stocks to Watch

Printable PDF

Editor’s Note: When I was a kid, Halloween was not the extravaganza it is now.
That day, I’d cut a few holes in an old sheet to become a ghost for a few hours
and head down the street for some free candy.

That sort of effortless approach doesn’t cut it anymore. Now, Halloween is big
business. Last year, Americans spent more than $12 billion on Halloween.

That’s a lot of candy. And with the price of chocolate and confectionary
manufacturing increasing 22% over the past year, that could push this year’s
total Halloween spend above $13 billion.


GOING TO THE DOGS

Don’t get me wrong. I like Halloween and enjoy seeing kids having so much fun.
But with inflation on the rise and families pinching pennies, that extra billion
dollars might be better spent elsewhere.

Try telling that to a ten-year-old child with a sweet tooth. For that matter,
try telling that to my daughter who dropped a couple hundred bucks on THREE
Halloween costumes for her dog.

Halloween isn’t just about candy and costumes anymore. Homeowners spend hundreds
of dollars festooning their yards with faux graveyards, zombie pirate ships, and
giant inflatable pumpkins.

Is it getting out of hand? Maybe, but people are going to spend their money on
what makes them happy so there’s no point in having that discussion.

Instead, let’s talk about how to profit from all that money being spent on one
day of the year.


SUGAR HIGH

According to national food retailer Kroger (NYSE: KR), the top-selling Halloween
candies last year (with the name of the manufacturer in parentheses) were:

 1. Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups (Hershey)
 2. Snickers (Mars)
 3. Kit Kat (Hershey)
 4. Twix Bar (Mars)
 5. Twizzlers (Hershey)

Since Mars is privately held, that leaves The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) as the
biggest publicly traded play on Halloween candy.

Hershey is also cheap at the moment. After peaking near $210 in May, HSY fell
below $185 last week.



Much of that decline was due to the company’s fiscal 2024 Q2 results released
three months ago. During the second quarter, Hershey’s consolidated net sales
were 17 percent lower than the year before.

Even worse, Hershey reduced its full-year outlook for net sales growth from +2
percent to -2 percent. That prompted the company’s CEO, Michelle Buck, to note,
“Today’s operating environment remains dynamic with consumers pulling back on
discretionary spending.”

Also not helping was a spike in global cocoa prices during the second quarter.
In April, the price of a metric ton of cocoa soared to $9,865 after starting
this year below $4,500.


SWEET DEAL

Sometimes, the best time to buy a stock is when it seems the news couldn’t get
much worse. That’s when Wall Street’s expectations are so low that any good news
at all can send a stock soaring.

I think that may be the case with Hershey. According to Buck, “Our second-half
innovation is expected to bring energy to our categories, and we are confident
our evolving strategies will meet consumers’ changing needs and drive long-term
success.”

Granted, that’s what you’d expect the company’s CEO to say after such a poor
showing. But there are good reasons to believe that may actually be the case.

The global price of cocoa fell below $6,500 in September, its lowest level since
February. That should help reduce supply costs.

Also, the economy was stronger during the third quarter than Wall Street
initially feared. That should translate into more discretionary spending on
luxury food items such as Hershey’s chocolate.

We will soon know. Hershey’s is scheduled to release its third quarter results
on November 3. If those numbers come in sweeter than expected, Hershey’s
shareholders could be in for a treat!

PS: Jim Pearce just imparted some invaluable investment advice, but his article
on Hershey only scratches the surface of our team’s expertise.

Consider our colleague Jim Fink. He made a fortune for himself trading options.
Now that he’s a millionaire, he’s ready to tell all.

As chief investment strategist of Velocity Trader, Jim Fink has devised a
methodology that generates market-thumping gains…in up or down markets and
regardless of political uncertainty.



One of the most important presidential elections in our lifetime is just around
the corner. Many investors are nervous and hunkering down. But not Jim.

In a new presentation, Jim Fink explains the simple strategy he uses to rake in
gains of 104%, 164%, and 203%…in as little as 72 hours.

Can Jim’s election-year trades really be this profitable? Click here to find
out.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jim Pearce
Bio | Archive

Jim Pearce is the Chief Investment Strategist of Personal Finance, our flagship
publication, and manages two trading services, PF Pro and Mayhem Trader. He
began his career as a stockbroker in 1983 and over the years has managed client
investment portfolios for major banks, brokerage firms, and investment advisors.
Jim earned a BA from The College of William & Mary and the CFP designation from
the College of Financial Planning.

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