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(Bloomberg) --

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A new operational defeat for Russia’s forces -- this time in a strategic eastern
Ukrainian town -- casts further doubt on the “forever” annexation of four
occupied regions by President Vladimir Putin. 

Outnumbered and increasingly encircled by Kyiv’s forces, several thousand
Russian troops withdrew from Lyman in Donetsk province over the weekend. 

Russia’s defense ministry said the troops were moving “to more favorable
positions.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday declared the town,
a key logistics hub for Moscow’s troops, “fully cleared.”  

Russian Troops Leave Key Eastern Ukraine Town in Latest Setback

Control of Ukraine’s Donbas region, made up of the Donetsk and Luhansk
provinces, was a stated goal of Putin’s “special military operation” when
Russian forces invaded in February. Kremlin troops pushed westward through the
Donbas in the summer, gaining territory through extended ground battles. 



Following sham referendums a week ago that were denounced by Ukraine, the US and
Europe, Putin on Friday formally “annexed” the two eastern regions, along with
Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in Ukraine’s south. Yet Moscow’s forces don’t fully
control of any of the areas, and are being pushed out of some towns they’ve held
for months. 

Read the rolling coverage of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Zelenskiy vowed to press forward with efforts to recapture territory. “During
this week, there were more Ukrainian flags in Donbas. It will be even more in a
week,” he said in an address to the nation on Saturday night.

Regional officials have suggested that after Lyman, Kyiv’s army will push toward
Kreminna, about 20 miles (32 km) to the east. 

“It is important to capture the area that opens up the way to liberate Donbas
settlements -- Svatove, Kreminna, Sievierodonetsk and others,” Serhiy Cherevaty,
a spokesman for Ukraine’s armed forces, said on Saturday. 




Russia’s previous defeat -- its troops retreated from a chunk of Kharkiv
province in September -- was thought to be the motivation for Putin’s partial
mobilization of 300,000 reservists. Moscow’s forces have also suffered heavy
casualties in the seven-month war, although exactly how many is unclear. 



Putin’s Boasts Ring Hollow in Ukraine Port Bombarded for Months

Since the call-up, hundreds of thousands of draft-age Russian men are believed
to have left for Kazakhstan, Georgia and other locations. Videos have surfaced
of mayhem among those who’ve been conscripted. 

Partly for that reason, the additional reservists are seen as unlikely to turn
the tide for Putin. 

“The Ukrainians fight with purpose, have better leadership and have a learning
culture that underpins adaptation,” said Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army
general who tweets about military strategy. 

The fall of Lyman makes a mockery of Putin’s annexation move, showing he can’t
hold what he now says is Russian land, according to Lawrence Freedman, a
military historian and emeritus professor of War Studies at King’s College
London.



“The Russian position in the area is now even worse, with shortages of men and
even more stretched supply lines adding to their woes,” he said in a blog post.
“The more Ukrainian forces can move forward, the more Russian assets are in
artillery range.” There are also reports of a new push by Ukrainian forces in
Kherson, Freedman added.

Criticism of Putin’s military leadership bubbled up within Russian after the
Kharkiv retreat and is also getting louder.

“Kremlin propagandists, pundits, and milbloggers registered the defeat as the
result of the Russian military command’s failure to send reinforcements in a
timely manner, while openly criticizing repeated bureaucratic failures during
the mobilization,” said analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a
US-based think tank. 

US Eyes Regular Aid Payments to Ukraine, Pushes EU to Do More

Andrey Gurulyov, a member of Russia’s parliament and a former army commander,
issued a lengthy statement on Telegram slamming “the Frunzenskaya Embankment,”
shorthand for Russia’s defense ministry leadership. 

“The problem is the wide-scale lying, reporting of a situation being good. This
system goes from top to bottom,” Gurulyov said. 

While Russians are thought to have been broadly supportive at first of Putin’s
attack on Ukraine, widening the net on conscription has changed the tone. Seven
in ten Russians said they felt fear, shock or alarm as a result of Putin’s
partial mobilization, according to independent pollsters at the Levada Center. 




Putin last week acknowledged that missteps had occurred in carrying out his
mobilization plan. He told a meeting of his Security Council that “it’s
necessary to correct all mistakes and prevent them from happening in the
future.” 

(Updates with comments from military analyst)

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.




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