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ADAPT - TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED DECISION TOOL FOR ADAPTATION MEASURES


CASE STUDY: FLOODS

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CONTEXT

On 4 March 2005, the Belgian Council of Ministers approved the research
programme “Science for a Sustainable Development” (2005-2009). This research
programme is the continuation of the first and second Scientific Support Plan
for a Sustainable Development Policy (SPSD I (1996-2001) and SPSD II
(2000-2005)). 

The priority research areas of this Programme are: 

 * Energy
 * Transport and mobility
 * Agro-food
 * Health and environment
 * Climate (including Antarctica)
 * Biodiversity (including Antarctica and the North Sea)
 * Atmosphere and terrestrial (including freshwater) and marine ecosystems
   (including Antarctica and the North Sea)
 * Transversal Research: In order to translate/operationalise the concept of
   sustainable development better, in and between the priority areas,
   transversal and generic research is necessary.
   

The goal of the research actions is to support specific decision-making in
relation to both sector-related and trans-sectoral problems. 


The ADAPT project falls into the category of climate-related research.



OBJECTIVES

©2006 HACH-ULg

It is known that adaptation measures will be necessary to protect populations
and ecosystems against climate-related hazards in the next decades (IPCC, 2001;
EEA, 2004). It remains for the policy-maker to select among a wide range of
options and possibilities of adaptation measures. In general, the ways and means
required to implement these measures appear to be considerable, when compared
with the risks to be avoided.

The decision-making principles advocated by international programmes stipulate
that the choice of adaptation measures must reflect their potential to produce
benefits which will surpass their costs.


The overall objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate an efficient
management tool being a cost-benefit analysis based instrument for the
integrated assessment of adaptation measures.


©2006 HACH-ULg

  

   

 

The project consists in two parts, the first one being a "general
introductionary study" and the other, a "case study" for which the methodology
will be refined.
The general introductionary study will provide a synthesis of the knowledge and
facts available concerning the effects of climate change, their intensity and
probable progression in time. The synthesis will provide a clear overview of
facts and their uncertainty limit, focussed on Belgium.

In order to develop and to test the methodology, a case study on a target impact
has been chosen: flooding in the two main Belgian river basins. From then on,
the project management tool, the subject matter of the methodology, will be
refined on the basis of a precise case of impacts, which will allow the idea of
the methodology to be studied in depth. 

 

 

 

The analysis of adaptation strategies related to flooding will be built on a
schema comprising the following steps:

 * Evaluating the impact of global change induced flooding on river basins;
 * Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding on vulnerable
   sectors in river basins; 
 * Determining adaptation measures  (response); 
 * Evaluating costs of adaptation measures; 
 * Cost-benefit analysis.

©2006 HACH-ULg

The subject is vast and complex, and needs to be managed in a multidisciplinary
approach, that takes into account the economic, social and environmental impacts
(holistic way), and their mutual interaction in accordance with the principle of
development and sustainable management. The subject will be investigated and
analyzed by five partners of complementary scientific expertises belonging to
the three pillars of sustainable development and starting from the technical and
strategic considerations.


During the process, scientific support for the authorities will be sought out
and contacts will be established with the leaders of other eventual research
projects within the framework of this call for proposals.


©2006 HACH-ULg



The integrated tool will be built on the basis of criteria such as efficiency
feasibility and acceptability framework and their limitations, for which
uncertainty analysis will be a permanent preoccupation. Nevertheless, the
instrument will have to be sufficiently flexible to be applied to other forms of
impacts identified in the first part of the study. This instrument in fact will
have to be finally considered as the project management keystone of all the
issues studied.


As a result, the possible, natural and social response strategies will then be
identified. Development and evaluation of adaptation alternatives (anticipatory
or autonomous) by means of cost-benefit analysis will lead to concrete results 
for helping decision makers in allocation and scheduling resources for
adaptation as well as for adaptation tradeoffs. They will also meet stakeholder
needs over time, given the uncertainties. 



TASKS AND TIMING

The different tasks (work packages) of this projects are the followings:

1. GENERAL STUDY AND EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BELGIUM (overview)

2. CASE STUDY– FLOODING

2.1. Evaluating the impact of global change induced flooding on river basins

a) Application of hydraulic modelling for the assessment of hydrological effects
due to climate change, as input for other effects
b) Translating hydraulic modelling results into input for the assessment of
secondary impacts

2.2. Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding on
vulnerable sectors in river basins (PhaseI)

a) Vulnerability 
a) General approach and integrated economic aspects 
a) Ecological Indicator for quantifying and evaluating change in ecosystems good
and services under climate change
a) Sociological aspects 

2.3. Determining adaptation measures (response) 

a) Definition of both technical and non-technical measures
b) Application of hydraulic modelling for defining and evaluating adaptation
measures: partim. technical measures on the river Meuse

2.4. Evaluating costs of adaptation measures

2.5. Cost-benefit analysis

2.6. Recommandations on adaptation measures





Outlines of work package 2 (©2006 CEESE-ULB)



These different tasks will be achieved over two two-year periods. The first
phase will treat Tasks 1, 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3. The second phase completes the study
of Tasks 2.2 and 2.3, and will finish off the remaining tasks. 

At the end of the first phase, the study will be evaluated by foreign
experts. Besides this, a follow-up committee has been set up to give an 
external view on the subject and at the same time supervise the study. 

The ADAPT project also joins synergies with the CCI-HYDR project (an project
financed by the Belgian Science Policy) because both projects are working on the
same issue of flooding but with different approaches and different objectives.


Plan | Contact Webmaster | Last update: Monday 10 December 2007 | ©2006
CEESE-ULB
Research project financed by the Belgian Science Policy in the programme
"Science for a sustainable development" (SSD), first call 





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