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«  View All Posts

Bank Earnings | Bank Loan Delinquencies | Commercial Real Estate | Community
Banks | Regional Banks | Banks | Bank CRE Lending | Bank Loan Portfolios


BANK EARNINGS REVIEW – Q2 2024: INCREASED REVENUES BUT HIGHER RATES CONTINUE TO
IMPACT BANK PERFORMANCE

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July 23rd, 2024 | 7 min. read

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Emily Yue



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Earnings from the largest banks¹ saw gains in the second quarter of 2024,  as
annual revenue growth picked up the pace and annual growth in expenses slowed
slightly compared to the past couple of quarters. However, the growth in loss
provisioning year-over-year has increased from the last quarter. Shares rose
across all four large banks upon the release of their respective earnings
reports.



Breakdown of Q2 Earnings

Aggregate earnings for the four large banks increased by 11.6% from Q2 2023.
JPMorgan experienced a particularly large 25.4% annual increase in net income,
driven by a $7.9 billion gain from converting its Visa Inc. ownership into
common stock. Quarter-over-quarter, JPMorgan saw a 35.2% increase in net income
to $18.2 million in Q2 from $13.4 million in Q1.

Total revenues for the four banks rose by 9.0% from Q2 2023. Noninterest income,
which reflects fees from various business lines such as investment banking,
sales and trading, and asset management, increased 24.2% year-over-year at all
four banks. However, net interest income fell 1.8% as the elevated fed funds
rate continues to impact deposit rates. Q2 2024 saw the first year-over-year
decline in net interest income since Q2 2021. 



Loss Provisions on the Rise

Loss provisions, or funds set aside for expected charge-offs, totaled $8.3
billion in Q2, up 9.4% year-over-year and 27.1% quarter-over-quarter. Key
drivers include:

 * Higher credit card net charge-offs are largely concentrated in newer vintage
   lines and represent a shift toward “credit normalization” as stimulus
   payments fade into memory.
 * Increased commercial real estate (CRE) office sector charge-offs. 

JPMorgan reported $3.1 billion in credit loss provisions, up 62%
quarter-over-quarter and 5.3% year-over-year, driven in part by integrating
First Republic's credit portfolio. This quarter’s uptick in loss provisions
signals a more cautious stance among banks as economic uncertainty rises and
potential credit risks come into focus, especially in the CRE office sector.

In this higher rate and stricter regulatory environment and beyond, banks need
powerful analytics to forecast financial performance and optimize revenue
streams. Trepp delivers practical solutions for capital planning, credit risk
management, stress testing, and regulatory compliance. Whether analyzing CRE
loan holdings, conducting stress tests, or ensuring Current Expected Credit Loss
(CECL) compliance, Trepp provides the tools banks need to assess risks and
sustain earnings growth.  



Net Interest Margins Squeezed by Higher Rates

Interest margins for the four banks peaked in Q1 2023 and have largely been
falling since then, including another 5 basis points drop in Q2 2024. This
decline was the direct result of higher rates raising funding costs, as banks
increase deposit rates to keep accounts from switching.

Bank of America and Wells Fargo saw 3.2% and 9.4% year-over-year decreases in
net interest income, respectively, due to higher deposit rates outpacing asset
yields. As the Fed funds rate remains elevated, pressure on net interest margins
is expected to persist. Banks will need to balance deposit costs with their
various streams of revenue from interest and fees, all while mitigating credit
risks to sustain earnings growth in this tighter environment.

In this higher rate and stricter regulatory environment and beyond, banks and
structured finance investors need robust data and analytics to effectively
manage risks and capitalize on opportunities. Trepp delivers practical solutions
for capital planning, credit risk management, stress testing, regulatory
compliance, and optimizing portfolios. Whether analyzing CRE loan holdings,
conducting stress tests, or ensuring CECL compliance, Trepp's tools enable users
to assess risks, seize opportunities, and make data-driven decisions. 



Looking Ahead

The second quarter saw a mixed but resilient performance for U.S. banks despite
sustained headwinds. While earnings and revenues increased across the board, the
impacts of higher underlying rates and potential credit risks were evident in
tightening net interest margins and increasing loss provisions, especially
allocations for CRE office exposure.

Going forward, banks’ performance will hinge on their management’s ability to
navigate credit risks and sustain growth in whatever macroeconomic environment
unfolds amidst festering political and economic uncertainty. The response of
central bankers and government officials to economic indicators such as
inflation, employment, as well as consumer spending and sentiment, particularly
the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate policy and regulatory capital
requirements.

Access to timely, granular CRE loan performance data will be critical for
lenders, asset managers, and investors to assess portfolio risks, benchmark
against the market, and stress test exposures.

Reliable and accessible data has become non-negotiable in CRE investment
decision-making, offering real views of market trends, accurate property
valuations, and reliable forecasting. Using Trepp's powerful web platform, which
offers T-ALLR's bank loan as well as CMBS and other securitized data, users can
harness loan and property data for customized markets and regions, and value
assets via historical financials, underwriting trends, and comparable lending
and sales activity. 

How Trepp Can Help You Navigate Uncertainty 

As risks rise across the banking and structured finance markets, access to
timely and versatile data is critical. Trepp's powerful web platform integrates
loan, property, and deal-level data, enabling you to: 

 * Monitor portfolio and loan-level credit performance.
 * Run cash flow upside, downside, and base-case scenarios and stress tests. 
 * Ensure regulatory compliance (CECL, Comprehensive Capital Analysis and
   Review,  Dodd-Frank Annual Stress Testing).
 * Benchmark against markets and comparables.

Trepp delivers the tools banks and structured finance investment committees need
to identify risks, find opportunities, and make better investment decisions.  

¹JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup

Request a demo to see these tools in action and discover how Trepp can help you
navigate the shifting CRE landscape.

Talk to an Expert About Trepp's Banking & Lending Solutions

Disclaimer: The information provided is based on information generally available
to the public from sources believed to be reliable.

Questions? Please contact us at info@trepp.com or call 212-754-1010.

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