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COULD IMMIGRATION SOLVE THE US WORKER SHORTAGE?

31 MAY 2022

The biggest gap between job openings and available workers in postwar history is
one of the key reasons that inflation is soaring in the U.S. A drop in
immigration has helped push the gap wider, suggesting an increase in
foreign-born workers could help contain the rise in wages and prices, according
to Goldman Sachs Research.

As pandemic restrictions were lifted, labor demand recovered much more quickly
than the labor force itself. As a result, wages jumped 5.5% during the past
year, according to Goldman Sachs’ Wage Tracker. If this pace continues, the
Federal Reserve would have a difficult time achieving its longer-run inflation
goal of 2%. Labor participation is expected to pick up in the U.S., adding as
many as 1.5 million workers over the coming year, but economists at Goldman
Sachs predict that will leave a sizable jobs-workers gap of around 1 million.



Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently noted that the drop in foreign-born workers
coming to the U.S. has rippled through the employment market. Immigration slowed
in the U.S. between 2019 and 2021 amid the spread of COVID-19 and policy
changes, leaving the labor force about 1.6 million workers smaller than it would
have been if it had stayed on its pre-pandemic trend. And while green card
issuance and temporary work visas have rebounded recently to roughly their
previous levels, immigration rates would need to increase even more to make up
for the shortfall, Goldman Sachs Research shows.

The COVID health crisis was part of the reason for the decline in immigration,
but Trump administration policies, from visa bans to lower caps on refugees,
also played a part. Under the new administration, the pace of immigration into
the U.S. appears to have returned to what it was before the pandemic, according
to Goldman Sachs Research, as temporary visas and green card issuance have
rebounded, and the cap on refugees has been lifted. But even so, the population
of foreign-born workers is smaller than it would have been without policy
changes and the pandemic, and Congressional Budget Office estimates indicate the
shortfall could increase.

It’s difficult to catch up because U.S. immigration law has numerical limits on
many categories of visas. Broad bipartisan immigration reform appears out of
reach, but smaller changes may have a chance, such as a bill for farm workers or
other temporary jobs.



The Biden administration has some options that could increase immigration
without approval from Congress, such as clearing the administrative backlog of
interviews for visas (by waiving those interviews, for example), redeploying
unused visas from previous years and allowing family members of certain types of
visa holders to work.

Immigration is a top political concern in the U.S., but so is inflation. To get
price increases back to the Fed’s 2% target, the jobs-workers gap in the U.S.
needs to narrow by around 2.5 million, according to Goldman Sachs Research, and
the expected increase in labor-force participation is well short of what appears
to be required. It may be realistic to boost annual immigration by a few hundred
thousand people — making a modest dent in the shortfall — but not by enough to
close it.

When it comes to cooling the labor market, this suggests the Federal Reserve
will have to do the heavy lifting by raising interest rates enough to slow the
economy.


EXPLORE MORE INSIGHTS

23 JUN 2022

HOW THE ECB PLANS TO AVOID FRAGMENTATION AND CONTAIN INFLATION

The euro area economy is starting to look more like the picture in the U.S. and
the U.K. – wage growth is accelerating and inflation seems to be getting
stickier. Those concerns are pushing the European Central Bank to act faster to
tighten monetary policy.

TOPIC: Europe
22 JUN 2022

BATTERIES: THE GREENFLATION CHALLENGE II

In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts discuss six key topics about
greenflation that are relevant to investors and increase their battery pack
price forecasts.

TOPICS: Carbonomics | Clean Tech and Renewables | Technology Driving Innovation
21 JUN 2022

EQUITY BEAR MARKET: A PARADIGM SHIFT?

Against a challenging backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising rates and growing
recession concerns, the S&P 500 has had an undeniably grim start to the year,
with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and unprofitable growth companies performing even
more dismally. In this episode of `Exchanges at Goldman Sachs`, host Allison
Nathan turns to three equity market heavyweights — Cathie Wood, founder, CEO,
and CIO of ARK Invest; Cliff Asness, founder and CIO of AQR Capital Management;
and David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. Equity Strategist — for their
thoughts on where equities are heading from here and what that means for
investors. This episode is based on Allison Nathan’s `Top of Mind` research
report.

TOPIC: Markets

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