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___ Skip to Content Skip to Menu Skip to Footer Explore S&P Global Search EN * 中文 (Chinese) Support TRENDING TOPICS * Look Forward: Multidimensional Transition * Look Forward: Supply Chain 2024 * AI in Banking: AI Will Be An Incremental Game Changer * The Return of Energy Security * The AI Governance Challenge * India's Future: The Quest for High and Stable Growth OFFERINGS BY DIVISION * S&P Global Market Intelligence * S&P Global Ratings * S&P Global Commodity Insights * S&P Dow Jones Indices * S&P Global Mobility * S&P Global Sustainable1 * S&P Global Offerings -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Featured Topics -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Featured Products -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Events -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Careers 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SOURCE FOR ESG DATA Ratings & Benchmarks OVERVIEW FIND A RATING By Topic Sustainability Private Markets Energy Transition Credit & Risk Fixed Income Supply Chain Technology & AI * Market Insights -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Special Reports -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Events -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Experts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Podcasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET INSIGHTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUSTAINABILITY ECONOMY CAPITAL MARKETS GLOBAL TRADE ENERGY & COMMODITIES TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION GEOPOLITICAL RISK ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EVENTS 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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Investor Relations -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABOUT S&P GLOBAL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Our Purpose & Values Our Leadership Our History Capabilities CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overview Reports & Policies Gender Data Matters ESG S&P Global Foundation DIVERSITY, EQUITY, & INCLUSION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overview People Resource Groups Our Stories Supplier Diversity Search for a Job INVESTOR RELATIONS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overview (opens in a new tab) Presentations (opens in a new tab) Investor Fact Book (opens in a new tab) News Releases (opens in a new tab) Quarterly Earnings (opens in a new tab) SEC Filings & Reports (opens in a new tab) Executive Committee (opens in a new tab) Governance (opens in a new tab) Merger Information (opens in a new tab) Stocks & Dividends (opens in a new tab) Shareholder Services (opens in a new tab) Contact (opens in a new tab) * S&P Global Home * Market Intelligence * Ratings * Commodity Insights * S&P Dow Jones Indices * Mobility * Sustainable1 * About S&P Global * Corporate Responsibility * Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion * Investor Relations About S&P Global Our Purpose & Values Our Leadership Our History Capabilities Corporate Responsibility Overview Reports & Policies Gender Data Matters ESG S&P Global Foundation Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion Overview People Resource Groups Our Stories Supplier Diversity Search for a Job Investor Relations Overview (opens in a new tab) Presentations (opens in a new tab) Investor Fact Book (opens in a new tab) News Releases (opens in a new tab) Quarterly Earnings (opens in a new tab) SEC Filings & Reports (opens in a new tab) Executive Committee (opens in a new tab) Governance (opens in a new tab) Merger Information (opens in a new tab) Stocks & Dividends (opens in a new tab) Shareholder Services (opens in a new tab) Contact (opens in a new tab) * S&P Global Offerings -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Featured Topics -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Featured Products -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Events -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Careers -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- S&P GLOBAL OFFERINGS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET INTELLIGENCE RATINGS COMMODITY INSIGHTS S&P DOW JONES INDICES MOBILITY SUSTAINABLE1 FEATURED TOPICS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sustainability Private Markets Energy Transition Credit & Risk Fixed Income Supply Chain Technology & AI FEATURED PRODUCTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- S&P CAPITAL IQ PRO PLATTS CONNECT S&P GLOBAL ESG SCORES AUTOCREDITINSIGHT RATINGS360 SPICE: THE INDEX SOURCE FOR ESG DATA (opens in a new tab) EVENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Featured S&P Global Events Webinar Replays CERAWeek S&P Global Market Intelligence S&P Global Ratings S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P Global Mobility S&P Global Commodity Insights S&P Global Sustainable1 CAREERS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overview Our Culture Our Commitment Our Work Search for a Job * S&P Global Home * Market Intelligence * Ratings * Commodity Insights * S&P Dow Jones Indices * Mobility * Sustainable1 * S&P Global Offerings * Featured Topics * Featured Products * Events * Careers S&P Global Offerings MARKET INTELLIGENCE RATINGS COMMODITY INSIGHTS S&P DOW JONES INDICES MOBILITY SUSTAINABLE1 Featured Topics Sustainability Private Markets Energy Transition Credit & Risk Fixed Income Supply Chain Technology & AI Featured Products S&P CAPITAL IQ PRO PLATTS CONNECT S&P GLOBAL ESG SCORES AUTOCREDITINSIGHT RATINGS360 SPICE: THE INDEX SOURCE FOR ESG DATA (opens in a new tab) Events Featured S&P Global Events Webinar Replays CERAWeek S&P Global Market Intelligence S&P Global Ratings S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P Global Mobility S&P Global Commodity Insights S&P Global Sustainable1 Careers Overview Our Culture Our Commitment Our Work Search for a Job Language * 中文 (Chinese) Trending Topics Look Forward: Multidimensional Transition Look Forward: Supply Chain 2024 AI in Banking: AI Will Be An Incremental Game Changer The Return of Energy Security The AI Governance Challenge India's Future: The Quest for High and Stable Growth -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trending Topics Look Forward: Multidimensional Transition Look Forward: Supply Chain 2024 AI in Banking: AI Will Be An Incremental Game Changer The Return of Energy Security The AI Governance Challenge India's Future: The Quest for High and Stable Growth -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Offerings by Division S&P Global Market Intelligence S&P Global Ratings S&P Global Commodity Insights S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P Global Mobility S&P Global Sustainable1 Search EN Support Contact Us (opens in a new tab) Contact Us (opens in a new tab) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices. 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Close Indices Disclaimer S&P/TOPIX 150 2,358.16 -0.39% S&P Asia 50 5,358.03 -0.01% S&P China 500 2,469.27 -0.02% S&P 500 6,021.63 0.57% DJIA 44,860.31 0.28% S&P/TSX 60 1,524.87 0.15% S&P GSCI 3,557.39 -0.08% S&P Europe 350 2,054.19 -0.61% S&P/ASX 200 8,389.5 0.4% S&P Global BMI 414.56 0.03% S&P/BMV IPC 49,721.85 -0.97% S&P Latin America 40 2,420.72 -0.78% S&P 500 Bond 511.86 -0.16% S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures 12,277.97 0.57% S&P/TOPIX 150 2,358.16 -0.39% S&P Asia 50 5,358.03 -0.01% S&P China 500 2,469.27 -0.02% S&P 500 6,021.63 0.57% DJIA 44,860.31 0.28% S&P/TSX 60 1,524.87 0.15% S&P GSCI 3,557.39 -0.08% S&P Europe 350 2,054.19 -0.61% S&P/ASX 200 8,389.5 0.4% S&P Global BMI 414.56 0.03% S&P/BMV IPC 49,721.85 -0.97% S&P Latin America 40 2,420.72 -0.78% S&P 500 Bond 511.86 -0.16% S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures 12,277.97 0.57% S&P Global Market Intelligence SEE THE BIG PICTURE FOR 2025 Industry trends that will shape 2025. Insights to support your planning. The Big Picture is a collection of 2025 industry outlook reports that can help sharpen your decision-making with broad perspective and essential predictions. S&P Global Market Intelligence INSIGHT AT EVERY DATA POINT Empower decisions and accelerate workflows with S&P Capital IQ Pro. S&P Global Market Intelligence ACCELERATE YOUR WORKFLOW WITH AI Find what is most relevant to your workflows and business needs, discover efficiency in your daily tasks, and input AI-ready data directly into your own internal generative AI models. GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS INTERCONNECTED. YOUR INTELLIGENCE SHOULD BE TOO. Explore Risks and Impacts S&P GLOBAL DAILY UPDATE Subscribe GRAPHITE BEYOND THE PENCIL 25 November 2024 AGING US POPULATION LEADING TO SHRINKING LABOR POOL 22 November 2024 THE CHALLENGE OF MEASURING CLIMATE’S ECONOMIC IMPACT OVER DECADES 21 November 2024 US AUTO INSURANCE RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BUT LESS SO 20 November 2024 TODAY'S BIGGEST HEADLINES FROM S&P GLOBAL Receive our daily newsletter directly in your inbox or via LinkedIn to learn about the big stories impacting our world. Each day, we send you the Essential Intelligence you need to understand the markets shaping your life. Subscribe on LinkedIn SPECIAL REPORTS Read All Special Reports Credit Markets 23 Oct 2024 TOKENIZED PRIVATE CREDIT: A NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER FOR REAL WORLD ASSETS Private credit is evolving. Lenders are providing money to an ever-widening base of borrowers, as well as offering a growing range of funds and investment vehicles. At the same time, a digital revolution is brewing that could open access to private credit for both investors and borrowers in a whole new way. Look Forward 16 Oct 2024 EMERGING MARKETS: A DECISIVE DECADE Emerging markets are strategically positioned to drive global economic growth through the expansion of their domestic markets and to benefit from the reconfiguration of supply chains, trade and investment. Social Equity 15 Oct 2024 GUIDING CAREGIVING EMPLOYEES: IT’S COMPLICATED S&P Global and AARP have partnered to examine the experiences of family caregivers at work – despite both employers and employees reporting high levels of support for caregivers of adults, workplace policies aimed at helping working caregivers are often not formalized. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET INSIGHTS SUSTAINABILITY ECONOMY CAPITAL MARKETS GLOBAL TRADE ENERGY & COMMODITIES TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION GEOPOLITICAL RISK ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INSIGHTS The artificial intelligence landscape is ever-changing. These technological advancements are equally important to economic development as other major trends like globalization, social inclusion, and climate and energy transition. S&P Global aims to provide this information in three parts: AI Fundamentals, AI Applications, and AI Governance and Regulation. Explore more Artifical Intelligence Insights Special Reports Oct 01, 2024 CRYPTO AND AI: SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET 1 October 2024 Crypto and AI: Shaping the Future of the Internet By Todd Kanaster, Andrew O'Neill, Rebecca Mun, Josh Stokesberry, Matta Uma Maheswara Reddy, and Ava Yang This is a thought leadership report issued by S&P Global. This report does not constitute a rating action, neither was it discussed by a rating committee. Highlights AI's adoption is aligned to a rapid expansion of online information that will facilitate significant technological opportunities but also comes with risks relating to centralization around big technology firms, information traceability, identity management, cyber security, and energy consumption. Blockchain and cryptographic technologies (collectively referred to as crypto) provide decentralized network solutions, and information ownership and security tools that could mitigate some of those risks. The combination of AI and crypto is nascent and rapidly evolving, yet even modest applications should offer important power and network optimization opportunities, while accelerated adoption over the longer term could lead to a crypto-supported decentralized internet. Over the last three decades, the emergence of web-based communication, online publication, and e-commerce has driven the exponential growth of online information. More recently, AI’s harnessing of advanced data analytics has enhanced our ability to identify patterns, create new information, and to derive meaningful insights from large datasets, providing new capacity for businesses and consumers to create, store, and share data (see figure 1). This explosion of information brings technological development opportunities, but also risks around information traceability, identity management, cyber threats, and data center energy consumption. Crypto offers tools that could mitigate those risks by offering the means to identify, track, and protect data. And in doing so it could also open paths to new ways of operating decentralized networks. Developments at the intersection of AI and crypto technologies will have important implications for the evolution of the internet. To better understand that potential, S&P Global studied the related benefits and issues likely to emerge over the coming five to 10 years based on three forward-looking scenarios: Incremental advancements in AI and crypto. A rapid expansion of AI that exacerbates centralization risks. Decentralized internet powered by crypto and AI. For each of these three development scenarios, we assessed the effects that synergistic applications of AI and crypto could have on business, the economy, and the environment across five key areas: cyber security, financial markets, computational resources, Internet of Things (IoT) and networking smart devices, and supply chains. How AI and crypto could shape the internet: three scenarios Scenario 1: Incremental advancements in AI and crypto. AI and crypto technologies evolve but result in only modest efficiency gains for enterprises. The growth of internet-of-things (IoT) applications is limited while Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePINs) leverage blockchain tokenomics (currency that can be used automatically within blockchain code) to enable autonomous real-time interactions within physical or online networks. Even with limited AI expansion, these networks could play an important role in optimizing usage of already-scarce computational resources and become more efficient as they expand with improved training data. DePINs, in 2024, are seeing some application of these technologies. Scenario 2: A rapid expansion of AI that exacerbates centralization risks. AI is centralized within a few, large technology incumbents, leading to a concentration of power. AI models play a dominant role in how businesses and consumers communicate and transact over the internet, intensifying the importance of data ownership and identity verification. Blockchain technology is used to decentralize information and facilitate privacy maintenance but with limited effect. AI applications extend beyond crypto into traditional financial markets, with associated and significant risks. AI’s concentration within a few corporations with potentially opaque governance structures engender reduced transparency and diminished accountability and give rise to risks that threaten to erode public trust (see figure 2). Scenario 3: Decentralized internet powered by crypto and AI. A decentralized internet emerges that uses blockchain architecture to distribute data and decision-making across multiple nodes, reducing the risk of bias, censorship, and privacy that are associated with centralization (see figure 3). Blockchain’s transparency underpins the integrity, immutability, and traceability of data and AI decisions, with blockchain providing the means to record and later audit both. This enhances accountability and reduces the likelihood of personal data exploitation. Blockchain could also be used to verify the authenticity of AI-generated content and distinguish between humans and bots, potentially mitigating the risks of deepfakes and misinformation. Blockchain’s ability to enhance data privacy while ensuring regulatory compliance allows AI models access to larger volumes of training data and enhances its security. The potential of these cryptographic technologies to enhance privacy and security, while also enabling AI-driven insights and collaboration, will have wide-ranging uses. For example, in the handling of medical data: homomorphic encryption could allow sensitive information to be processed and analyzed without being decrypted, meaning it can be used by AI models to predict disease outcomes and personalize treatments while protecting patient confidentiality; multi-party computation could enable medical networks to combine research data for the training of AI models and joint analysis for medical research; and zero-knowledge proofs could ensure an AI-generated medical images do not contain any embedded personally-identifiable information. AI and crypto's combination could be transformational The intersection of AI and crypto offers potential for improvements across a range of industries, notably those that face complex (and sometimes currently intractable) challenges, or where there exists significant (including currently unrecognized) potential to unlock new efficiencies. The extent of the potential benefits from the new technologies will however vary across different uses and will be dictated by advancements in the two technologies, as detailed (earlier) in our three scenarios. A summary of the relevance of AI and crypto technologies across five key areas, and under our three scenarios, is provided in the table below (see figure 4), while a more detailed review follows. Cyber security The problem The increasing sophistication of cyber threats (coupled with greater use of AI by malevolent actors) means organizations face an increased cadence of attacks, which threaten financial and reputational damage, as well as rising cyber insurance costs. Opportunities AI threat detection and automated responses can significantly enhance cyber security in blockchain networks, and especially in DePINs and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. AI can also help ensure the security of code, which is particularly important for DeFi applications, including by assisting in smart contract validation and through code testing and verification. For example: deep-learning models can analyze large datasets for unidentified vulnerabilities, known as zero-day vulnerabilities; and large language models can be trained on libraries of malware to detect patterns of attack and pinpoint vulnerabilities in existing code. Risks and challenges Data bias in training sets can affect AI performance, potentially leading to false negatives. AI models could be targeted and manipulated to compromise their effectiveness. To mitigate these risks and maintain AI-driven security, continuous updates and validation are essential. Financial Markets The problem Traditional financial markets' exposure to inefficiencies, the risk of fraud, and manual oversight increases costs, can hinder or delay real-time transactions due to reliance on intermediaries, and raises the potential for errors and criminality. Addressing inefficiencies through automation can lead to additional risks. Opportunities Smart contracts (coded sets of rules and conditional actions stored on a blockchain) could improve financial markets' transparency and efficiency. The contracts automatically execute based on pre-set conditions and can be integrated with verified real-world financial data through information bridges, called oracles. AI's ability to process and analyze large datasets provided by oracles can be used to efficiently generate pertinent inputs for smart contracts. The combination of smart contracts and AI could streamline markets by automating routine tasks, such as financial settlement, contract execution, and compliance checks, reducing the need for manual oversight and minimizing human error. Multi-party computation protocols can be used in the creation of decentralized oracles that ensure the security and accuracy of data across blockchains operating in a trustless system. AI compliance tools can play an important role in enhancing security in automated financial markets by identifying anomalies and potential fraud. They can monitor transactions in real-time and automatically trigger smart contracts to take preventive actions, such as halting suspicious transactions. Crypto wallets can allow AI agents to transact with each other through on-chain payments. This could, for example, enable an AI trading bot to acquire inferences from another AI model that is trained on a data set that is not generally available. Obviously AI agents do not have access to bank accounts in the traditional payment system, but they can be set up with crypto wallets and smart contracts, allowing them to exchange with each other, for example using tokens to pay for data. In September 2024, Coinbase’s CEO announced the first such AI-to-AI transaction. Potential applications of such interactions could also be much broader than in financial markets. Risks and challenges Vulnerabilities in oracles, such as susceptibility to data manipulation, can compromise the integrity of oracle-connected financial systems. Determining liability in such scenarios can be complex, due in part to the uncertainty of the legal framework and regulatory environment for crypto and AI-driven financial systems, particularly across international borders. AI models' complexity can render decision making opaque, posing audit and accounting challenges. Smart contract enforceability may be legally uncertain, potentially limiting their application in traditional financial systems. Computational resources The problem Compute power (the capability of a computing system to perform computations and process data) and data storage are often siloed, leading to inefficient resource utilization. The expanding use of AI is creating significant additional demand for compute power to run data centers, and the trend is set to continue (see figure 7). This additional demand could strain already scarce energy resources and further challenge efforts to reduce emissions. Opportunities DePINs can facilitate peer-to-peer resources exchanges, including of storage and processing power, and incentivize use by rewarding participants with crypto tokens. This enables the monetization of excess capacity/ the purchase of resources, leading to optimized hardware use and reduced idle time. Tokenization of machine learning data and compute power may enhance distributed and collaborative AI systems that utilize high-speed and low-cost blockchain architecture. AI-driven pricing can effectively match infrastructure with demand, reducing computing costs and improving efficiency. Crypto is often portrayed as a drain on energy resources due to its use of the blockchain that underpins bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. It is important to note that energy consumption is specifically a feature of Bitcoin’s proof-of-work consensus mechanism and not inherent to all crypto. That means not all crypto is designed to consume as much energy. That said, bitcoin miners’ large computing infrastructures are often located in areas where energy costs are low, and particularly in locations (such as Texas) where they can use excess energy generated by solar and wind sources. Some bitcoin mining companies are using their access to cheap energy to offer AI services to diversify their revenue streams. AI data center firms are also looking to acquire or collocate with miners’ infrastructure to access cheap energy. Risks and challenges Token price volatility can affect the reliability and attractiveness of DePINs, potentially deterring participation and hindering data collection. Aggregating responses from multiple AI models may reduce errors and increase reliability, but can be complex, especially for sophisticated tasks such as integrating with blockchain platforms. Bitcoin mining and AI computations have different hardware requirements. Miners access cheap and clean energy because they have flexibility and economic incentives to adjust their demand according to the needs of the grid, increasing demand at times of low usage (when energy prices are cheaper) and decreasing at times of peak usage (when energy is expensive). Data centers for AI use do not have as much flexibility to switch units on and off in response to externalities. This limits the potential synergies between bitcoin mining and AI services. IoT and networking smart devices The problem Smart devices have so far mainly generated convenience benefits for individual consumers and are yet to fulfil their potential to build smart networks. At a municipal level, inefficient use of collective data and underutilized resources can lead to higher operational costs and suboptimal services. Effective networks of smart devices could help (see The Rise of AI-Powered Smart Cities, May 18, 2024). Opportunities By leveraging crowd-sourced sensors (dashcams, energy meters, toll road monitors, and water pipe flow monitors) municipalities can gather decentralized data, while rewarding contributors with tokens as payments. AI-driven data analysis can be used to optimize infrastructure management software, including mapping of energy grids, traffic flow, and water/sewer systems, resulting in cost savings for government agencies. AI can also dynamically adjust resource allocation to match real-time demand, reduce waste, and predict maintenance needs. For wireless infrastructure, AI can improve efficiency and security by reducing latency and mitigating cyber risks through intelligent traffic rerouting. Risks and challenges Tamper-proofing is critical to ensure data integrity and operational reliability when securing physical assets and sensors within DePINs. Privacy concerns can arise due to the processing of large volumes of data, especially where information is sensitive, necessitating compliance with data protection regulations. As the number of IoT devices grows, managing and scaling network infrastructure becomes increasingly complex. Maintaining high data quality and accuracy is crucial to avoiding inaccurate AI predictions and operational inefficiencies. Supply chains The problem Manual processes and a lack of real-time data integration mean supply chains face costly inefficiencies and operational risks due to delays and excess inventory. Opportunities AI can be used to predict delays and dynamically (including in real-time) adjust operations to reduce excess inventory and optimize routes. That would be underpinned by smart contracts, which can automate instant payments, facilitate compliance, and offer real-time tracking with the aid of DePINs, resulting in a seamless and transparent logistics system with immutable records. Risks and challenges Evolving legal frameworks across different jurisdictions introduces regulatory uncertainty and creates compliance difficulties. The complexity and opacity of AI models can pose audit and accounting challenges, while the enforceability of smart contracts remains legally ambiguous. Data privacy and security concerns must be addressed to protect sensitive information and the integration of new technologies with existing legal systems can be costly and complex. Scalability issues may arise as supply chains expand and ethical considerations regarding job displacement and decision-making biases need to be managed. The futures of crypto and AI may go hand in hand Over the last three decades, the birth and evolution of the internet has shaped how businesses and consumers communicate and transact. It is a fact, sometime obscured by hype, that crypto and AI technologies are (at their core) information technologies and will thus have a role to play in the continued evolution of information, communication, and economic networks. Synergies between the technologies should support their growth, mitigate centralization risks, and give rise to impactful applications ranging from supply chain management to smart cities. The rate at which those applications will emerge, and the pace of their adoption, remains uncertain. Yet we believe that the question is not if adoption will happen, but when it will occur. From there, the key issues will be how the combination develops and the extent of its effects (including due to emerging synergies between AI and crypto that will act as a force multiplier). We will, in particular, monitor the growth of decentralized physical infrastructure networks, which are already beginning to optimize power consumption to mitigate the increasing energy demand from AI. Should AI usage continue to accelerate, we will also watch for intensification of centralization risks around big tech companies and the mitigation of that risk by crypto technology, new regulations, and legal initiatives. Contributors S&P Global Ratings Paul Whitfield Editor & Writer Editorial, Design & Publishing Mahnoor Haider Senior Designer Special Reports Sep 19, 2024 INDIA’S AI AMBITIONS: CAN PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS LEAD THE WAY? India Forward — 19 September 2024 India’s AI ambitions: Can public-private partnerships lead the way? An opportunity exists to replicate the success of India Stack to accelerate India’s AI mission. By Shankar Krishnamurthy and Sugandha Srikanteswaran Highlights AI can play a key role in accelerating India’s economic growth as the country aspires to be the third-largest economy in the world by fiscal 2030–31. India can aim to replicate the success of the digital public infrastructure public-private partnership model that helped accelerate the country’s digitalization. There is a significant opportunity for India-based IT providers and startups to be public-private partners for AI. India Forward Emerging Perspectives Explore More Developing AI capabilities and the realization of resulting productivity gains will require India to have policies that provide an ethical and regulatory framework, research and development and digital infrastructure investments, and a skilled AI labor pool. AI’s potential rests on several factors Investment capacity, including the willingness of corporations and governments to fund AI research projects. Digital infrastructure, encompassing an economy's IT infrastructure, the population's access to the internet, the availability of reliable data and the existence of institutions to support AI research and development. Policy support from prevailing laws and regulations, and the development and implementation of rules that facilitate AI's progress — including the regulatory environment for technology startups, a conducive administrative environment and data privacy regulations. Labor suitability and availability, including education levels, AI literacy, the capacity to reskill workers, and the ability to attract and retain a qualified workforce. As of Aug. 13, 2024. Source: S&P Global Ratings. © 2024 S&P Global. Can the AI mission replicate the success of the Digital India model to accelerate economic growth? The Digital India initiative, a public-private partnership seeded with key investments by the government of India, continues to play a key role in transforming Indian society using digital technologies. The vision of the program was centered on three key areas: digital public infrastructure (DPI), digital access to government services and the digital empowerment of citizens. While the origins of DPI can be traced back to the launch of the Aadhaar unique biometric citizen ID system in 2009, successive governments, through the continuation of policies and investments, have continued to evolve DPI, also known as India Stack. DPI is widely acknowledged to be a successful platform that has helped accelerate India’s digitalization through increased connectivity, improved efficiency, innovation and inclusive growth. The recently announced IndiaAI Mission has the potential to build on the successful public partnership model created by the Digital India initiative and accelerate India’s economic growth as the country aims to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2030, as per S&P Global projections. IndiaAI Mission On March 7, 2024, the Indian government announced the launch and implementation of the IndiaAI Mission through a public-private partnership model aimed at nurturing India’s AI innovation ecosystem. This demonstrates the Indian government’s commitment to creating an AI environment and propelling economic growth. According to the mission’s official website, the broader vision of IndiaAI is to “bolster India’s global leadership in AI, foster technological self-reliance, ensure ethical and responsible AI deployment, and democratize the benefits of AI across all strata of society.” Pivotal initiatives withinthe mission include the following: Compute Capacity, Innovation Centre, Datasets Platform, Application Development Initiative, FutureSkills, Startup Financing, and Safe and Trusted AI. According to a 2024 report published by not-for-profit industry association Nasscom, the Indian AI market is expected to grow to between US$17 billion and US$22 billion by 2027, attracting investments of US$4 billion and becoming the third-largest talent base with an expected 1.25 million to 1.35 million people with AI skills. The Indian AI market is expected to grow to between US$17 billion and US$22 billion by 2027, attracting investments of US$4 billion and becoming the third-largest talent base with an expected 1.25 million to 1.35 million people with AI skills. IT and IT-enabled services sector’s critical importance to India’s GDP IT services (IT) — including software development, maintenance and support — and IT-enabled services (ITES) — including business process outsourcing and knowledge process outsourcing — have been crucial contributors to India’s GDP, adding US$254 billion in revenue to, and comprising about 7.5% of, India’s GDP in fiscal 2023–24. Almost 80% of the IT/ITES revenue came from exports, with the US, UK and EU being the top three markets. The IT/ITES industry has also created large employment opportunities and is estimated to employ 5.43 million professionals, according to the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology. The IT/ITES industry has adapted well to disruptions, including economic downturns and various automationdriven reductions, by focusing on growth areas such as digital transformation and cloud services. The industry has continued to grow in head count and revenue. However, generative AI presents a new set of challenges with its ability to create natural language chat applications such as ITES/voice business process outsourcing, which can disrupt customer service functions. GenAI can also generate code, automate testing and improve the efficiency of application development by 20%-40%, making it so fewer programmers are required. With its high reliance on head count for revenue growth, IT service providers must find ways to continue growing revenue by recalibrating their business models to provide higher-value services. The starting point in the recalibration and transformation of the IT/ITES model is upskilling and reskilling the workforce to understand and deliver outcomes to clients using GenAI. These firms have deep roots in global enterprises and have established themselves as trusted partners by helping clients optimize processes and reduce costs through outsourcing. As part of customer IT and business operations, IT/ITES providers can harness their knowledge of architecture, data and processes to help integrate GenAI into workflows and deliver outcomes like improved customer experience and faster time to market. The top five IT service providers collectively had a workforce of 1.45 million employees as of the first quarter of fiscal 2024–25. According to the companies’ reports, these providers have trained more than 775,000 employees on GenAI. Workforce transformation is the first step in countering the impact of GenAI on revenue growth. IT/ITES providers need to be open to changing business models by reducing dependence on time and material engagements and must move toward more outcomebased engagements using AI/GenAI. This business transformation requires providers to understand their customers’ business strategies and IT processes, using AI/GenAI to deliver outcomes in the form of improved customer experience and the faster launch of new products and services. One major opportunity can be found in the customer experience management function — which includes help desks, service desks and call centers — where IT/ITES providers can use AI/GenAI to create human-like chat interactions to deliver a faster and superior personalized customer experience. IT/ITES providers have the scale, expertise and transformation experience required to establish a publicprivate partnership for AI skilling and to impact the Indian labor market. Initiatives such as IndiaAI FutureSkills provide the framework for a public-private partnership that can prepare the Indian workforce for opportunities. IT/ITES providers have the scale, expertise and transformation experience required to establish a public-private partnership for AI skilling and to impact the Indian labor market. AI skilling in India AI is rapidly transforming the global job market, and the Indian workforce is no exception. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology acknowledges that while AI may threaten some jobs, it offers a variety of new, high-paying roles. India’s AI job market has expanded in recent years, with a 2023 report by Nasscom highlighting 30% year-over-year growth. According to Nasscom and the Boston Consulting Group, the availability of AI jobs in India is underpinned by the country’s available talent, which is ranked second globally. This growth is driven by the increasing adoption of AI technologies by Indian businesses to enhance productivity, improve customer experience and drive innovation for the domestic and global markets. AI is opening avenues for new job opportunities across multiple industries. Sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, and banking, financial services and insurance are looking to grow their adoption of AI and GenAI. For instance, HDFC Bank is investing in building large language models, and startups such as Krutrim are focusing on creating domesticrelated LLMs. The renewable sector is also expecting a boom in job opportunities, including white-collar jobs such as project management and market analysis, with a focus on solar energy. The skilling needs in the solar energy sector are also high, and AI can be used to provide this education. The upskilling of the workforce is a key aspect of embracing AI and GenAI. Companies have launched educational programs, such as Microsoft’s AI Odyssey and the NVIDIA Deep Learning Institute. The National Council for Vocational Education and Training, along with the Indian Institute of Technology Madras, launched AI learning programs. These initiatives aim to equip the Indian workforce with the necessary skills to leverage AI technologies effectively. According to a 2024 study on global capability centers by Nasscom and KPMG, upskilling on AI and GenAI needs to grow, and fresh graduates need to gain hands-on experience with the technology to quickly bridge some job gaps. From a regulatory perspective, AI guardrails and enforcement are continuously being reviewed and published. Key requirements for the rollout of AI include the labeling of AI models, obtaining consent and informing users of models’ fallibility. These measures aim to ensure that AI technologies are deployed responsibly and ethically. This will also create new job opportunities in legal and counsel for the AI sector. In essence, the adoption of AI and GenAI in India presents a bilateral scenario. While there are concerns about job displacement, the potential for creating higher-paying, skilled roles is significant. The government’s financial commitment, coupled with industry-specific opportunities and robust skilling initiatives, positions India to harness the transformative power of AI effectively. Investments in AI While the US is the global leader in public and private AI investment, the Indian government has demonstrated its commitment to the industry’s development by announcing a budgetary allocation of 103.72 billion rupees, or about US$1.3 billion, through the IndiaAI Mission. The US, China and the UK accounted for 81% of global private investments in AI startups over 2013–23. In fiscal 2023–24 alone, US private investments amounted to US$67.22 billion, while private investments from Indian companies totaled US$1.39 billion. While an initial public investment in 10,000 graphics processing units as part of the IndiaAI Mission is a good start, it is small-scale compared with the capacity created by US-based companies such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, Amazon and Facebook — capacity that has allowed them to dominate the AI/GenAI market, especially in AI infrastructure and LLMs. Indian IT service providers have also announced investments in AI. Wipro has committed US$1 billion over the next three years to build its ai360 platform and FullStride Cloud, expanding AI, data and analytics solutions. Tata Consultancy Services, India’s largest IT services provider, has also made significant commitments to invest in AI, including the launch of its TCS AI WisdomNext platform. The platform is an aggregation of multiple GenAI services on a single interface that enables enterprises to adopt AI at scale. Meanwhile, Infosys launched the Topaz platform for GenAI. These companies also have venture arms that invest in early-stage AI startups and AI-related companies. The public-private partnership AI opportunity In addition to playing a key role in creating a skilled and expert AI workforce, IT/ITES providers have the opportunity to partner with the IndiaAI Mission and replicate the success of the Digital India initiative, fostering an ecosystem that enables innovation and the creation of new products and services using AI. The Digital India initiative, which was created with public funding, was largely leveraged by financial technology startups that revolutionized the digital payments, education and e-commerce sectors. While startups will continue to play a key role in AI, there is a significant opportunity for established IT/ITES players to partner with the IndiaAI Mission and cover areas including AI skilling, investing in AI infrastructure and creating an India data repository. There is an opportunity for IndiaAI and Indian IT/ITES providers to create India-specific models, trained with datasets that can help Indian researchers in various sectors such as climate and environmental studies, agriculture, food supply chain, healthcare, and mobility. Conclusion In summary, the IndiaAI Mission provides a substantial opportunity for established IT/ITES providers to be a force multiplier and create an impact beyond their organizations and customers. They can transform themselves and Indian society through this public-private partnership. The continuation of supportive policies, the demonstrated success of the Digital India public-private partnership model and the transformation expertise of IT/ITES providers over the last 30 years all point to the high probability of this partnership succeeding and helping India realize its potential to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2030. This collaboration can also transform India into a society that has democratized access to computing and AI, creating opportunities for a large section of the population and establishing India as a leading economic engine of sustainable development over the next 20 years. India Forward: Emerging Perspectives India’s growing role in the global economy Next Article This article was authored by a cross-section of representatives from S&P Global and in certain circumstances external guest authors. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent and are not necessarily reflected in the products and services those entities offer. This research is a publication of S&P Global and does not comment on current or future credit ratings or credit rating methodologies. Advancing climate, environmental, and nature research CLIMATE CENTER OF EXCELLENCE The S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence sits within S&P Global Sustainable1’s Research and Methodology Team. The center is home to a group of world-class scientists and strategists dedicated to addressing the frontiers of long-term climate, environmental, and nature research and methodology development Learn More ENERGY TRANSITION Explore the climate crisis as it intensifies calls for the energy sector to transition from fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal to renewable energy sources. Read more on the Energy Transition Articles Nov 27, 2024 TRUMP'S EARLY TARIFF PITCH RAISES QUESTIONS ON ENERGY IMPACTS, EXEMPTIONS President-elect Donald Trump Nov. 25 promised to impose 25% tariffs on all products imported from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on goods entering from China, in a move that could have significant energy sector implications — should Trump follow through on the warning. In social media posts, Trump said the proposed tariffs would be in place from day one until Mexico and Canada cracked down on drug flows and illegal immigration into the US; Trump also tied tariffs on China to a call for tougher policies on Fentanyl. Because the president-elect has favored tariffs as a tool in international diplomacy and economic policy, it is unclear whether the tariffs will ultimately materialize as described or serve as leverage ahead of negotiations. Canada and Mexico are the US' top trading partners for energy-related goods, and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement — a trade pact between the three countries signed during Trump's first term — is scheduled for review in 2026. Canadian products comprised the largest share of energy-related imports into the US in 2023, at 48.5% of the total, or $126.8 billion. Mexico came in second at 9.3% or $24.3 billion, according to the US International Trade Commission. Canada is by far the largest supplier of imported crude in the US, reflecting over half of the total 6.3 million b/d in August, US Energy Information Administration data showed. The proposal for a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would drive up costs for US refiners who depend on heavy and medium crudes from both countries and would likely pass those costs on to consumers via higher refined products prices, experts said. Uncertain prospects Manav Gupta, analyst with UBS, in a research note however, said it was not clear at this point if crude will be included or excluded from the potential tariffs. "I seriously doubt that the tariffs are intended to cover commodities because the energy systems both on the US-Canadian border and the US-Mexican border are so closely intertwined," said David Goldwyn, president of the international energy consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategies. He suggested that there are no substitutes for some of the US energy imports on a seasonal basis, and retaliatory tariffs could be "really devastating" because of the high volume of gas and refined products shipped to Mexico. Joshua Zive, senior principal at Bracewell, said Trump could use either the International Emergency Economic Power Act or Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which has national security tariffs provisions, to carry out his plan. "[E]ither of these tools provide the president pretty broad authority so that the president could probably do this," Zive said. "The bigger question is whether he actually intends on imposing those tariffs or [is] just threatening them in order to secure some commitments on narcotics and or immigration, and that's still, I think, the more likely scenario right now." Zive suggested the potential for economic disruption and price shocks could ultimately persuade Trump not to impose the tariffs. "The energy sector is one that's going to be hit most dramatically by these sorts of tariffs, given the energy trade across our southern border," he said. Trump campaigned on lowering inflation and cutting energy costs. Oil and gas interests already have sought to make the case that any future across-the-board tariffs should exclude energy on the front end — so as to align with Trump's broader goal of advancing energy infrastructure development, increasing production and lowering prices. Some experts anticipated exemptions for energy imports to avoid increased costs for consumers. Cross-border flows As for US energy exports, Mexico was the top recipient of US energy-related products, valued at $46.6 billion, or 14% of the total, in 2023. Canada came in third, with $29.4 billion, or 8.8%, in US energy exports to the US' northern neighbor that year, the ITC data showed. The US and Mexico have a synergistic relationship when it comes to natural gas. Mexico is an important outlet for US gas production, and the country to the south relies heavily on US gas supply, particularly for industry, as it lacks the resources to develop its own reserves. US gas flows to Mexico have averaged almost 6.4 Bcf/d this year, a record high, and strong growth is expected out to 2029 thanks to rising demand in Mexico, both domestically and for exports. The US and Canadian gas markets also are closely interconnected. Net Canada-US flows have been over 5.7 Bcf/d during 2024, their highest since 2016, but could drop from 2025 as Canada begins to export LNG. The majority of Canadian exports flow to the Pacific Northwest, with much of it then flowing further south to California. The US Northeast imported an average 1 Bcf/d during January and exported an average 600 MMcf/d to Canada during May. Metals, renewables The proposed tariffs could make US more dependent on China for some metals, some industry officials said. Canada supplies the US with about half of its nickel needs, Pierre Gratton, president and CEO of the Mining Association of Canada. "It could lead to the US importing nickel from Indonesia instead, which would then increase US dependence on Chinese production, as China dominates nickel production in that country," Gratton said. As for the solar sector, the vast majority of imports for solar modules and cells come from Southeast Asia, rather than Canada, Mexico and China. The US imported 15 GW of solar panels and 4.2 GW of cells in the third quarter of 2024 according to S&P Global Market Intelligence Global Trade Analytics Suite data. The US imported 8.4% of its panels from India, 11.8% from Cambodia, 13.4% from Malaysia, 23% from Thailand and 32.5% from Vietnam and 11% from the rest of the world. For cells, the US imported 3.7% from Laos, 4% from Vietnam, 19.9% from South Korea, 27.6% from Thailand and 37.3% from Malaysia with 7% from the rest of the world. Executives at Fluence Energy Inc. said the energy storage technology developer would not be materially impacted by an additional 10% tariff on battery cell imports from China, even if there could be some "short-term" market disruptions. Duties on US imports of Chinese battery cells for use in the energy storage industry already are set to increase to 25% in 2026 from 7.5% currently. "If the tariff is raised even further or ahead of the current schedule, it could cause some short-term disruptions in the market, while the markets digest the new prices," Fluence Energy President and CEO Julian Nebreda told equity analysts on a Nov. 26 earnings call. * Articles - Nov 27, 2024 EU APPROVES SENIOR POLICY TEAM INCLUDING NUCLEAR ENERGY SKEPTICS * Articles - Nov 27, 2024 ENERGY TRANSITION NOT DEAD, RENEWABLES EXPECTED TO SURVIVE TRUMP 2.0: LAWYERS * Articles - Nov 26, 2024 COMMODITY TRACKER: 6 CHARTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK * Articles - Nov 26, 2024 INDIA APPROVES 426 MW HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTS WORTH $437.6 MILLION IN NORTHEAST * Articles - Nov 26, 2024 COP29 SETS CLEAR PATHWAY FOR GLOBAL CARBON MARKETS, BUT CRITICAL CHALLENGES REMAIN ESSENTIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR A CHANGING WORLD. 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