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Homepage
Interview'Multiculturalism could be the wealth of Syria once again'
WITH ASSAD’S FALL, THE POSSIBLE SPLINTERING OF SYRIA BUOYS HOPES FOR A NEW
MIDDLE EAST
ANAN WAHABI, A FORMER IDF INTEL OFFICER FROM THE DRUZE COMMUNITY, SAYS SYRIA’S
GROUPS COULD REBUILD THE COUNTRY AS SEMI-AUTONOMOUS CANTONS, ENSURING STABILITY
AND PERHAPS COOPERATION WITH ISRAEL
By Gianluca Pacchiani
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* 13
Gianluca Pacchiani is the Arab affairs reporter for The Times of Israel
*
A Syrian opposition fighter tears up a painting depicting Syrian President
Bashar Assad and his late father Hafez Assad at the Aleppo international airpot
in Aleppo, Syria, December 2, 2024. .(AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has been heralded as a historic
moment for the Middle East. But while many in Syria and around the world are
celebrating the toppling of a brutal dictator, concern has emerged in Israel
over the rise of the Islamist rebel group that brought him down and the risk of
instability in a neighboring country plagued by a 13-year old civil war and deep
sectarian divisions.
But alongside those worries, there are those who see the dawn of a new Middle
East in the stunning events of the last several days, with Iran’s foothold in
Syria likely gone along with Assad, among Tehran’s most important regional
clients. In place of his iron-fisted rule, some envision a loose confederation
of four ethnic substates united by a central government.
“The modern nation state in the Middle East has failed,” said Wahabi Anan
Wahabi, a Research Fellow at the International Institute for Counter Terrorism
(ICT) at Reichman University in Herzliya. “All the different communities in
Syria could not live together in one national state.”
In an interview with The Times of Israel, Wahabi, who is also a colonel (res.)
in the Intelligence Corps of the Israel Defense Forces and a lecturer in
Political Sciences at the University of Haifa, formulated a vision for the
future of Syria that respects the balance between the ethnic and religious
diversity of the country – which includes Sunni and Shiite Arabs, Kurds,
Christians, Druze, and Alawites, the religious minority of Assad.
This confederation would harness the vested interests of foreign powers in Syria
— including both Israel and Russia, which maintains an air field and major naval
base in Syria — for the country’s future stabilization and development, while
possibly opening the door to normalization between Damascus and Jerusalem.
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“The best option is for Syria to follow the model of the Kurdistan region in
Iraq,” he posited. Iraqi Kurdistan is a semi-autonomous administrative division
in the Republic of Iraq established de facto in 2005 after the fall of Saddam
Hussein and the US-led invasion.
A Syrian Kurd waves the flag of YPG (People’s Protection Units) near Qamishli’s
airport in northeastern Syria on December 8, 2024. (Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP)
In that region, Kurds built a parliamentary democracy and constituted
semi-autonomous armed forces, the Peshmerga, while remaining formally a part of
the Iraqi Republic.
The same model of regional autonomy could be applied to Syria’s regions and
communities, in order to put the country on the path of political stability and
economic development, said Wahabi. The process could have positive repercussions
for the wider region, and Israel could play a role in it, he predicted.
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According to Wahabi, plans for economic development projects in southern Syria
backed by Israel have already been discussed in unofficial meetings between
Israeli academics and Syrian opposition figures interested in peace. There are
no verifiable reports of those meetings.
A resident of the northern Druze village Daliat al-Carmel who worked in the
Prime Minister’s Office on regional strategy between 2010 and 2013, Wahabi
developed insights and forecasts based on his decades-long experience in
military and academic circles, his personal connections with decision-makers,
and what he calls his “mileage in understanding the subtext of declarations, and
political and military behavior” of actors in the region.
The interview was lightly edited for clarity:
The Times of Israel: How did the stunning, sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad come
about?
Anan Wahabi: I was not entirely surprised. Over the last decade, Assad has
gradually lost control of the Syrian state. His Iranian backers were weakened by
the war in Lebanon and the Israeli retaliations [against direct rocket attacks
by Iran in April and October]. Now that [US President-elect Donald] Trump is
coming into office, Iran is not really prepared to support its allies in the
region.
Syrians celebrate the arrival of opposition fighters as they step on a picture
of Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus, Syria, December 8, 2024. (Omar
Sanadiki/AP)
The Russians were not surprised either. It appears that there was a prior
strategic coordination with rebel forces to bring about a deep change in Syrian
politics, remove Assad and rebuild Syria with Russian support, to make it
moderate, democratic and hopefully to become part of the regional normalization
process with Israel.
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Who do you think led this coordination?
The US Republicans are preparing their return to office in January and they have
already laid down their plan for the Middle East. According to my understanding,
Trump will focus on the Pacific region, China, and the global economy, but first
and foremost on American domestic affairs.
So the incoming administration has a plan to deal with the Middle East before
Trump comes into office, and that includes a retreat of Iranian forces from
Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Then-president Donald Trump shows a map of Syria and Iraq showing the presence
of the Islamic State in Syria in 2017 and 2019, as he speaks to reporters before
leaving the White House in Washington, Wednesday, March 20, 2019. (AP/Manuel
Balce Ceneta)
Trump has given the Biden administration the opportunity to end the Lebanon war
and record it as its historic achievement. But the future of Syria will be an
issue for the next administration.
I think this strategy for Syria has been designed and coordinated by the Trump
team with the Russians – there is presumably a hidden deal between the
Republicans and Putin to wrap up the war in Ukraine and sign a ceasefire deal
that will grant some territorial gains for Russia. In return, Moscow will be
allowed to preserve its foothold in Syria.
At the same time, America will maintain its military presence in the
semi-autonomous state in eastern Syria under the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic
Forces.
Assuming your assessment is correct, how do you envision the future Syria?
Inside Syria, everyone is imagining the future differently, but looking from
here at a distance, we can already see that the country is already divided into
four cantons. The next step is to make this division official.
The central government will remain in Damascus. The Russians could retain
control over the capital, and the center of the country as well as the coastal
area [Assad’s Alawite heartland, where the Russian military bases are located],
and the Homs corridor linking those two.
Col. (res) Anan Wahabi, a research scholar in International Institute for
Counter-Terrorism (ICT), and a lecturer in School of Political Sciences in Haifa
University, 2024 (courtesy)
In the northwest, there can be a Sunni substate under Turkish influence centered
around Idlib and Aleppo, and including border regions which are already under
Turkish control, possibly extending to Hama further to the south.
In the northeast, there is already a Kurdish canton supported by the US. That
area is very rich in oil and in agriculture. It’s very important for the Syrian
economy.
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In the far south, in the area around the city of Suweida, there can be a Druze
canton. This is a triangle region on the borders with Israel and Jordan, and
there are already ideas on the table for its economic development – for instance
a train line to Haifa, a water desalinization plant built with Israeli
technology, whose water can be used for agricultural development thanks to
Israeli know-how.
Supporting the economy in that triangle area would also bring great benefits to
Jordan. This is a plan that the Americans and Europeans can get behind.
So we’re talking about four substates, which will be part of Syria but will
remain autonomous. The modern nation-state has failed in the Middle East, and
all those diverse communities could not really live together in one national
state.
A damaged portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hangs in the city of
Qamishli, as Syrian Kurds celebrate the fall of capital Damascus to
anti-government fighters on December 8, 2024. (Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP)
How would Turkey, which backs the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel force that beat
back Assad but also opposes Kurdish independence, feel about another Kurdish
semi-state along its borders in Syria, after Iraq?
Turkey will try and push back on the plan of the Kurds, but for now, it is more
important for Ankara to cut [off] the Iranian axis in the region.
Turkey also knows that Arabs in the area don’t like its interference – there
have been critical talks among Arabs of a Turkish sultan coming to reoccupy
Syria.
There is mistrust of the Turks, and the Turks understand that their influence is
limited. Therefore they will concentrate on the northern side of Syria, the area
along their border that is closest to their domestic interests.
What about Iran? The Syrian uprising has been a huge blow for Tehran’s axis in
the region and the Iranian regime is getting jittery. After the collapse of
Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad, it seems logical that Tehran will be next in line.
The development of its nuclear program could be used to justify an attack on its
nuclear installations.
Yes, I think that reading is correct. When Israel struck Iran’s aerial defense
systems in October, it was a retaliation [against Iran’s ballistic missile
attack on October 1], but also a preparation for the next stage of the war. So
yes, Iran is under threat.
In my assessment, military action against Iran will lead to political change –
we will see the same play out in Lebanon as well.
Little by little, Hezbollah is going to lay down its weapons and integrate into
the Lebanese state and will participate in the reconstruction of Lebanon. It is
already part of the Lebanese state and the government. Eventually, it will
abandon its strategy of liberating [Jerusalem]. And then later on Lebanon will
be part of the normalization deal with Israel, just like Syria.
Are the Druze in Syria, who largely backed Assad, concerned today about the
country being run by a radical Islamist group such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,
which could persecute religious minorities?
Yes, of course there is concern that the future government will be influenced by
radicals. But we hear voices from the opposition saying that the Islamist groups
will not be part of the next government, and that rebels intend to rebuild the
country as a democratic one, not replace an authoritarian regime with Islamists.
If we look back at the history of Syria, we see that Syrians are much more free
and liberal than Islamists. Syria has historically been a diverse country with
many ethnic groups. This multiculturalism can be the wealth of Syrian society
once again, and ensure that the next state will be democratic and liberal.
A semi-independent Druze state existed around the Suwayda area from 1921 to
1936. What would it mean for you as a Druze Israeli to see the Druze in Syria
re-create their own semi-autonomous state?
Over the past 76 years, the Druze in Israel have become Israelis; we feel we
belong to the State of Israel. And we are very beneficial to the Zionist Jewish
state. We understand the culture and language of the Middle East and bring great
contributions in diplomacy, in intelligence, and for Israel’s integration in the
region.
If there will be an opportunity to build a Druze state, I would take part in
that process, but eventually, I would come back here again to die as an Israeli.
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December 9, 2024
Current Top Stories
Four troops killed in southern Lebanon by accidental blast inside Hezbollah
tunnel
By Emanuel Fabian
Reservists believed to have triggered unmarked munitions left by other IDF
soldiers, setting off Hezbollah cache and bringing tunnel down on troops
Live
Hamas congratulates Syrians on achieving ‘freedom and justice’ by toppling Assad
By Michael Bachner and Elana Kirsh
Unverified footage shows Syrian rebels vowing: ‘We’re coming for Jerusalem.
Patience, people of Gaza’ * Netanyahu to address press this evening ahead of
graft trial testimony tomorrow
* 32min ago
Ex-president Rivlin: Queen Elizabeth 'believed that every Israeli was either
a terrorist or a son of a terrorist' -- report
* 41min ago
University of Amsterdam employees strike to suspend ties with Israel,
increase rights to protest
* 50min ago
Liberman vows: Once opposition comes into power, it will cancel Haredi draft
exemption law
* 1hr ago
Reports: Syrian rebels tap Mohamed Al-Bashir as transitional PM
IDF: Troops will stay in Syria buffer zone and strategic Mount Hermon as long as
needed
By Emanuel Fabian
Israel says move to capture territory is defensive, intended to be temporary;
army says it will hold new positions until situation clears up after fall of
Assad regime
Sa’ar confirms Israel hit chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in Syria
By Agencies, tois and ToI Staff
As Assad ousted, Israeli jets destroy his deadly arsenals before they fall to
rebels
By Emanuel Fabian and Agencies
Netanyahu claims credit for starting ‘historic’ process that led to fall of
Assad regime
By Lazar Berman, Sam Sokol, Emanuel Fabian and ToI Staff
Throngs of Syrian refugees start returning from Turkey, Lebanon after Assad’s
fall
By Agencies and ToI Staff
People express joy over end of brutal regime, as Turkish officials hope many
will return home; Germany and Austria suspend Syrian asylum requests amid
developments
Bewildered, jubilant prisoners pour out as Assad’s jails are flung open
By Adam Makary
Analysis
Lazar Berman
Sinwar’s ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ washed Iran’s axis away, but that doesn’t spell plain
sailing for Israel
Hamas, Hezbollah and Assad’s Syria no longer pose a strategic threat, but Tehran
will keep working to harm the Jewish state; meanwhile, unpredictable Turkey and
its proxies are ascendant
Analysis‘Break in the chain’: Fall of Assad deals blow to Iran’s global ‘Axis of
Resistance’
By AP and ToI Staff
ProfileWho is Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of insurgency that toppled Syria’s
Assad?
By Kareem Chehayeb
ExplainerWhere Turkey stands after Assad regime falls to Syrian opposition
By Susan Fraser and andrew wilks
Iran says it is in direct contact with groups in Syria’s new leadership
By Reuters and ToI Staff
Teheran eager to avoid ‘hostile trajectory’ in relationship, sources say, amid
concerns rebels who ousted allied Assad regime will now spurn Islamic Republic
Assad flees to Moscow as victorious rebel leader al-Golani enters Damascus
By Agencies and ToI Staff
ChronologyTwo seismic weeks that toppled the Assad regime
By AP
Rebels storm Iranian embassy in Damascus, rip banner of Nasrallah and Soleimani
By AFP
Israeli officials: Report Hamas gave list of hostages to be freed under deal is
incorrect
By ToI Staff and Reuters
Government pointman dismisses Arabic paper’s claim that would indicate advanced
stage of talks; FM Sa’ar says he is more optimistic than before, ‘but we are not
there yet’
Israel and Hamas exchange lists of names for release as talks advance – report
By ToI Staff
Netanyahu tells hostage families fall of Assad regime could advance negotiations
By Lazar Berman, Jacob Magid and ToI Staff
Drone from Yemen smashes into apartment block in Yavne; causes damage but no
injuries
By Emanuel Fabian
IDF probe finds drone not continuously detected after entering Israeli airspace
in south; no sirens sound; incident marks third successive day of attacks by
Iran-backed Houthis
ToI podcast
Amanda Borschel-Dan and Lazar Berman
Daily Briefing Dec. 9: Day 430 – IDF shores up buffer zone as Syrian rebels
grasp power
Diplomatic reporter Lazar Berman on the domino effect of Israel’s decimation of
Iranian-backed forces and how the success of the Syrian rebels may help clinch a
hostage-release deal
Interview
Gianluca Pacchiani
With Assad’s fall, the possible splintering of Syria buoys hopes for a new
Middle East
Anan Wahabi, a former IDF intel officer from the Druze community, says Syria’s
groups could rebuild the country as semi-autonomous cantons, ensuring stability
and perhaps cooperation with Israel
Syrians across Europe barely able to contain their joy at Assad’s downfall
By Céline LE PRIOUX and Frank Zeller
Assad’s fall marks end of regime that crushed dissent, fostered anti-Israel
terror
By AP and ToI Staff
Security cabinet ministers urge AG, court to delay Netanyahu’s graft testimony
By ToI Staff
Almost every minister signs letter appealing to Baharav-Miara and district court
judge, claiming diverting PM’s attention from regional affairs now would harm
national security
Court orders Netanyahu aide accused in documents scandal released to house
arrest
By Jeremy Sharon
Court rejects claim it must coordinate Netanyahu’s testimony with Knesset
speaker
By Sam Sokol and Jeremy Sharon
Australia declares synagogue arson a terror attack as police hunt for three
suspects
By Agencies
Move gives authorities more resources to manage probe into Friday blaze that
gutted Melbourne house of worship; government sets up special taskforce to deal
with antisemitic attacks
‘Shattered’: Melbourne synagogue arson leaves community feeling furious, and
vulnerable
By Zev Stub
Synagogue blaze should be treated as terror, Australian leader says
By AFP
Police accuse Nof Hagalil man of burning cars, spray-painting messages for Iran
By Emanuel Fabian and ToI Staff
Artyom Zolotarev suspected of taking on tasks even after he realized who was
paying him, but authorities say he also turned down requests to spy for Tehran
or aid murder plot
Reporter's Notebook
As Syrian regime falls next door, Golan town of Katzrin keeps calm and carries
on
By Gavriel Fiske
Residents of ‘The Capital of the Golan’ went about their business on Sunday, but
some expressed uncertainty about the historical changes taking place a short car
ride away
Global leaders urge calm, stability after rebels oust Assad regime
By Agencies
Once staunch Assad backers, Iran and Russia now calling for deescalation in
Syria
By Reuters and ToI Staff
Pope Francis inaugurates nativity scene in Vatican showing baby Jesus on
keffiyeh
By ToI Staff
Pontiff, who recently called to investigate Israel for genocide, preaches end to
all war, as he dedicates scene by Palestinian artists, to be displayed in
Vatican’s Paul VI Hall
ToI podcastDaily Briefing Dec. 6: Day 427 – As Pope floats ‘genocide,’ a dive
into Catholic-Jewish ties
By ToI Staff
Star Jewish quarterback Jake Retzlaff nabs Manischewitz’s first sports
sponsorship
By jacob gurvis
Retzlaff, who plays for Mormon flagship Brigham Young University, goes by the
moniker BY-Jew while openly celebrating his Jewish identity and upbringing
NYT: Documents show top administrators at UNRWA schools were Hamas fighters
By ToI Staff
Terror group’s internal records identify 24 school employees as operatives, half
of whom were issued rifles, grenades; one principal was known to wear Hamas
fatigues after school
Settler group claims to have entered Lebanon and established outpost; IDF denies
it
By Jeremy Sharon, Emanuel Fabian and ToI Staff
Far-right Uri Tzafon Movement says families set up tents in southern Lebanon,
but military says group’s claims are false and that the settler activists never
crossed the border
Israeli drone kills Hezbollah operative, reports of more strikes in southern
Lebanon
By Emanuel Fabian
Israel is producing fewer new startups, raising concerns about future tech jobs
By Sharon Wrobel
More Headlines
Herzog decries coalition’s divisive judicial agenda, warns of harm to democracy
By Sam Sokol
Man who shot 2 kids at California school wanted to avenge ‘genocide’ of
Palestinians
By TERRY CHEA, and STEFANIE DAZIO and ToI Staff
‘MERCI’: France’s Notre Dame Cathedral reopens five years after fire almost
destroyed it
By Reuters
Saudi royal says Israel ‘genocidal,’ hopes Netanyahu will be brought before ICC
By Agencies and ToI Staff
South Korea’s president avoids impeachment attempt over his failed martial law
gambit
By KIM TONG-HYUNG and Hyung-Jin Kim
Famed De Gaulle WWII speech against Nazis on show for first time
By AFP
Top Ops
Ron Levy
Catastrophizing the Melbourne synagogue attack
With our history of trauma, an act of terror can seem to prove that Jews are
wholly unsafe. That’s a mistake – and a win for the terrorists
Zev Farber
Divide Syria
In time, Latakia can be another Singapore, the Druze can border Israel, and a
Sunni Syria can be extremist if it must (I’d prefer a peaceful, progressive
state)
Shuki Friedman
The fall of Assad means opportunities for Israel – and some danger
The regime collapse undermines Iran’s influence and makes surrounding Israel
with a ’ring of fire’ harder, but what new risks will the chaos pose?
Tali Nir
Beyond donations: A vision for a new Israel-Diaspora social partnership
The old ’donor-recipient’ model of Diaspora communities and Israel no longer
serves either side well, with both able to do so much more for each other
Rachelli Prawer
Melbourne 2024: Jews, wake up and smell the smoke!
Our enemies know the power of fire and the national memories it evokes, but we
are no longer exiled and defenseless – we have a refuge
Catherine Perez-Shakdam
When the music stops: The haunting legacy of anti-Zionism
When history’s sober gaze falls upon this era, it will draw upon a digital
archive of those who chose the easy path of fashionable outrage
Ruthie Hollander
Are American Jews and Israeli Jews growing apart?
The 6,000 miles separating my new-olah sister and my NY self represent more than
physical distance; there’s a yawning gap between our perspectives
Mijal Bitton
When enough is everything
If sibling rivalry doesn’t provoke jealousy in you, then the materialism of the
era probably will. So why wasn’t the biblical Jacob riddled with envy?
(Vayetzei)
Amos Yadlin
Syria: Better the devil we don’t know
Assad massacred half a million of his own people. It’s time to see how others
try to stabilize the country – as long as they reduce interference by Iran
Lisa Gelber
Call the light forward and be that light: Omer Neutra z”l
Mourning this loss, I wanted to hide under the covers, but how can I? The lives
in peril for 14 months need us to get up and speak for them
Debra Weiner-Solomont
Words no army parent wants to hear: ‘Get to the hospital now’
My son has a hard road ahead, but his deep friendships and our new support
network have already worked wonders toward healing
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Gulf countries talk like Iran, act like Israel
The GCC rhetoric on Israel masks its true aims to decouple Syria’s Assad and the
Islamic Republic and declaw Hezbollah in Lebanon
Today's Daily Briefing
Day 430 – IDF shores up buffer zone as Syrian rebels grasp power
listen to the podcast
Latest Articles
* 44 minutes ago
Israeli officials: Report Hamas gave list of hostages to be freed under deal
is incorrect
* 49 minutes ago
Bewildered, jubilant prisoners pour out as Assad’s jails are flung open
* 50 minutes ago
IDF: Troops will stay in Syria buffer zone and strategic Mount Hermon as long
as needed
* 52 minutes ago
Throngs of Syrian refugees start returning from Turkey, Lebanon after Assad’s
fall
* 1 hour ago
Four troops killed in southern Lebanon by accidental blast inside Hezbollah
tunnel
* 1 hour ago
Sa’ar confirms Israel hit chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in
Syria
* 3 hours ago
Police accuse Nof Hagalil man of burning cars, spray-painting messages for
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Iran says it is in direct contact with groups in Syria’s new leadership
* 4 hours ago
Court orders Netanyahu aide accused in documents scandal released to house
arrest
* 5 hours ago
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a new Middle East
* 5 hours ago
Security cabinet ministers urge AG, court to delay Netanyahu’s graft
testimony
* 6 hours ago
Australia declares synagogue arson a terror attack as police hunt for three
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* 6 hours ago
Drone from Yemen smashes into apartment block in Yavne; causes damage but no
injuries
* 8 hours ago
Israel and Hamas exchange lists of names for release as talks advance –
report
* 13 hours ago
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* 14 hours ago
Syrians across Europe barely able to contain their joy at Assad’s downfall
* 16 hours ago
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toppling Assad
* 16 hours ago
Reporter's NotebookAs Syrian regime falls next door, Golan town of Katzrin
keeps calm and carries on
* 16 hours ago
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Those We Have Lost
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Full Coverage 2023-2024 Israel-Hamas war
* Israeli officials: Report Hamas gave list of hostages to be freed under deal
is incorrect
By ToI Staff and Reuters
* Daily Briefing Dec. 9: Day 430 – IDF shores up buffer zone as Syrian rebels
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A royal reception
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