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THE HISTORY OF BLACK QUARTERBACKS IN THE NFL (2023 UPDATE)

by Chase Stuart on February 1, 2023
in History

The 2022 season was another groundbreaking season for black quarterbacks in the
NFL. There were 21 black quarterbacks who threw at least one pass this year, the
highest number in a single season in NFL history. The graph below shows how many
black quarterbacks in the NFL [1]Or AFL or AAFC. threw at least one pass in each
season since the league began recording passing statistics in 1932:

Black quarterbacks also started 29% of all games, another high-water mark for
the league. In 2022, 15 of the league’s 32 teams started a black quarterback in
at least one game, including the PFWA Comeback Player of the Year (Seattle’s
Geno Smith), the Most Valuable Player in the league (Kansas City’s Patrick
Mahomes) and the quarterback of the league’s best team during the regular season
(Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts).

The charts above tell a remarkable story. Consider that the year of the first
Super Bowl (1966), there were no black quarterbacks in the AFL or NFL. When Tom
Brady was born (1977), there had never been an NFL game where both teams started
black quarterbacks. And when Brady was drafted, there had never been two black
quarterbacks to face off in an NFL playoff game. Now, on the day that Brady is
retiring, it’s a noteworthy sign of progress that we are just days away from the
first Super Bowl featuring two black quarterbacks (Mahomes and Hurts). It has
been a remarkable journey for black quarterbacks in the NFL, one that started
over one hundred years ago. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References ↑1 Or AFL or AAFC.

Tagged as: Black QB

{ 1 comment }


BROCK PURDY LOOKS TO MAKE QUARTERBACK SUPER BOWL HISTORY

by Chase Stuart on January 27, 2023
in Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers rookie quarterback Brock Purdy is on the verge of making NFL
history. If the 49ers can upset the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, Purdy
would become the first rookie quarterback to ever start in a Super Bowl.

Only a few rookie “quarterbacks” have ever led a team to an NFL title, with
quarterbacks in quotation marks the farther back in time we go. In 1946, a
25-year-old Otto Graham led the Cleveland Browns to an AAFC title in his first
season. The prior year, a 25-year-old Bob Waterfield led the NFL in touchdown
passes as a rookie and then threw two touchdown passes in the NFL title game to
help lead the Rams to their first ring. Perhaps the best rookie season of them
all came from Sammy Baugh in 1937, as he led Washington to the championship. And
three years earlier, rookie Ed Danowski helped the Giants stage a fourth quarter
comeback to beat the Bears in a famous title game.

Purdy has only started five regular season and two playoff games in his NFL
career so far, and he sports a perfect 7-0 record. An appearance in Super Bowl
LVII would be his 9th NFL start; believe it or not, that would only rank as the
third fewest by a starting quarterback in the Super Bowl. On the other hand, at
just over 23 years old, Purdy would in fact be the youngest quarterback to start
a Super Bowl. [continue reading…]

{ 1 comment }


ZACH WILSON AND THE WORST PASSER RATING IN THE NFL

by Chase Stuart on December 30, 2022
in History

When the Jets drafted Zach Wilson, the hope was that the kid from BYU would end
a long line of Jets draft busts. Because after having their hopes dashed by Mark
Sanchez, Geno Smith, and then Sam Darnold, the Jets were due for some good luck.
Right?



[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Jets, Zach Wilson

{ 0 comments }


THE EAGLES RUSHING OFFENSE IS BETTER THAN THEIR OPPONENTS’ PASSING OFFENSE

by Chase Stuart on December 12, 2022
in Checkdowns

Throughout NFL history, having a strong running offense and a dominant pass
defense has been a recipe for success. But the 2022 Eagles are currently doing
something that hasn’t been done in 40 or 45 years, depending on your view of the
1982 strike season. Through 13 games, the Eagles have one of the top running
games in the NFL. Powered by quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Miles
Sanders, Philadelphia is tied for 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards and leads the
NFL in rushing first downs. The Eagles are also averaging 4.87 yards per carry,
good enough for 5th best. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s pass defense has been
phenomenal. Even ignoring the NFL-best 15 interceptions (and NFL-best 3.4%
interception rate), Eagles opponents are averaging just 4.80 net yards per pass
attempt, the top rate in the league.

Yes, that means the Eagles gain more yards per rush than their opponents average
per pass. Which is pretty ridiculous!

It’s not unusual for teams to come pretty close here: the Buffalo Bills nearly
pulled this one off last season with very similar numbers. Buffalo averaged 4.79
yards per carry and allowed 4.84 net yards per attempt in 2021. [continue
reading…]

{ 6 comments }


LET’S RIDE AWAY FROM THE END ZONE

by Chase Stuart on November 15, 2022
in Defense, History

In 1946, the Pittsburgh Steelers went 5-5-1. While the sum of the team’s parts
may have been perfectly average, their components were far from it. The head
coach was newly-hired Jock Sutherland, who had been a local hero after taking
the Pitt Panthers to four Rose Bowls. After a stint in the Navy during World War
II, he returned to the city and coached the Steelers for two seasons, beginning
in 1946. In the 10-team NFL, Pittsburgh allowed the fewest points in the NFL at
10.6 per game, a mark that would not be matched again until the Lombardi Packers
in 1962. The NFL average in 1946 was 18.9 points per game, and every other team
allowed at least 14.4 points per game. Unfortunately, the Steelers offense was
as bad as the defense was good: the black and gold finished last in the league
in scoring at 12.4 points per game.

That 1946 team was led by Bill Dudley, an all-world star who won the league’s
MVP award. In addition to leading the league in rushing yards… and punt return
yards and average… Dudley intercepted 10 passes that season! That remarkable
fact came despite the Steelers only facing 162 pass attempts that season,
meaning Dudley intercepted one out of every 16.2 passes the Steelers defense saw
that season. It remains arguably the greatest season of thievery in NFL history.

Those ’46 Steelers were otherwise an unremarkable team, notable for this one
fact: Pittsburgh is the last team to finish as the league’s lowest scoring team
and to also allow the fewest points in the league. But this year, the 2022
Denver Broncos are challenging that mark. Through 9 games and 10 weeks of the
season, Denver ranks last in scoring and first in points allowed. The Broncos
have 131 points scored through 9 games — a very bad number although not a
particularly low mark for the league’s worst-scoring team. [1]Last year, Houston
scored 128 points through 9 games, and this year, the Colts have just one more
point than Denver And they have allowed 149 points despite facing 11.8 drives
per game (thanks, offense), tied for the most in the NFL.

A few teams have come close to pulling off this rare achievement, but it’s
remarkable to consider that no team has done this since Sutherland’s
Steelers. [2]Only one team has gone in the other direction: the 2000 Rams led
the league in scoring but also ranked last in points allowed. There have been
just 31.1 points per game scored in Broncos games this season.  In the last 25
seasons, only two other times has that happened: the famed 2000 Ravens teams,
and the 2005 Bears team that tried to replicate that approach, using Brian
Urlacher as Ray Lewis and Kyle Orton as Trent Dilfer. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References ↑1 Last year, Houston scored 128 points through 9 games, and this
year, the Colts have just one more point than Denver ↑2 Only one team has gone
in the other direction: the 2000 Rams led the league in scoring but also ranked
last in points allowed.

{ 0 comments }


THE FINAL SCORE IS: 20-17

by Chase Stuart on November 9, 2022
in Checkdowns

October 5th, 1924 was not the most exciting day in pro football history. The
Cardinals defeated the Packers 3-0 in a game that was representative of things
to come. Elsewhere, the Duluth Kelleys beat the Minneapolis Marines 3-0, the
Akron Pros won in Rochester against the Jeffersons by a 3-0 score, and the
Milwaukee Badgers hosted and defeated the Kansas City Blues by the score of —
you guessed it — three to zero. It was the only time in NFL history that four
games all finished with the same score on the same day. [continue reading…]

{ 0 comments }


FOOTBALL IN THE NORTHEAST IS BACK

by Chase Stuart on October 29, 2022
in Checkdowns, History

The New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Giants and Philadelphia
Eagles are undeniably in the northeast. I think most would include the Buffalo
Bills are as well, although they do play in western New York. The state of
Pennsylvania is commonly included in the northeast, but I don’t think it’s
reasonable to include Pittsburgh, on the western border, in as a team in the
northeast. The Baltimore Ravens are only 100 miles away from Philadelphia, but
they are also only 40 miles from Washington, D.C., and no sensible definition of
“Northeast” should include the nation’s capital.

So I’m going to stick with the NE-NYG-NYJ-PHI-BUF pairing as the definition of
Northeast football. And only two years ago, it looked really bad: [continue
reading…]

{ 0 comments }


THIRD DOWN PERFORMANCE: HOW MUCH IS A 3RD DOWN WORTH?

by Chase Stuart on September 17, 2022
in Checkdowns, Theory

From 2002 to 2021, NFL teams converted 38.9% of all third down attempts. Third
down performance is really meaningful when it comes to winning games, but it can
also be pretty random from sample to sample. So as a result, third down
performance has an outsized performance on who wins and loses that game, but is
probably not all that predictable as to who will win the next game.

I thought it would be interesting to look at this in the context of the pre-game
point spread. Let’s start with a few basic numbers, looking at this 20-year
period.

 * Teams that were favored by 1 to 5.5 points won 58.7% of their games.
 * Teams that were favored by 6 to 8 points won 73.6% of their games.
 * Teams that were favored by more than 8 points won 83.4% of their games.

But let’s say you know that the favorite would lose the third down battle. How
does that change things?

 * Teams that were favored by 1 to 5.5 points but were worse on third downs won
   only 43.4% of their games.
 * Teams that were favored by 6 to 8 points but were worse on third downs won
   only 54.2% of their games.
 * Teams that were favored by more than 8 points but were worse on third downs
   won 68.2% of their games.

Now, saying an underdog just needs to win the third down battle is not very
helpful, and only a little more precise (and about as useless) as saying they
just need to score more points. But it does help to provide some guardrails
about the magnitude of third down performance. It can flip a big favorite into a
coin flip, and a huge favorite suddenly has a real chance of losing.

Can we quantify exactly how important third down success is? I’m glad you asked.
As we know, each team has a 38.9% chance of converting an average third down.
Suppose each team has 15 third down attempts in the game. Let’s say one team
coverts 10 of 15, while the other only converts five opportunities. The expected
number of third down conversions for both teams is 5.8 (0.389 multiplied by 15),
so one team converted 4.2 more first downs than expected, while the other
converted 0.8 fewer than expected. The net difference, of course, is five
conversions — let’s call that the net third downs added. [continue reading…]

{ 2 comments }


ADJUSTED INTERCEPTIONS: CAREER TOTALS

by Bryan Frye on August 26, 2022
in Defense, Statistics

Yesterday, I did a fairly simple analysis to compare interception numbers across
eras. Because I covered the methodology in the previous post, I am not going to
regurgitate that information here. Instead, I want to just get right into it.
When I did the career adjusted sacks post, I went step-by-step in the same
manner I did in the single season article. This time, however, I think we can
skip past all that and look at the end results.


CAREER ADJUSTED INTERCEPTION TOTALS

The first table is sorted by the last column, but you can re-sort by any header
you like. Using Rod Woodson as an example, here’s how you read the table:
Woodson intercepted 71 passes against 8401 attempts at a 0.85% rate. His passing
environment modifier (Mod) is worth 142%, and the softened version of that
(Soft) is worth 121%. Taking the average of his actual interceptions and
interceptions per 500 attempts in order to account for volume gives us the Mid
adjustment, which is 98% in Woodson’s case. Applying my homebrewed league
strength multiplier (LSM) gives him a 99% adjustment.

If we multiply Woodson’s 71 interceptions by Mod, Mid, and LSM, we get a
whopping 97.7 adjusted interceptions for his career. If we dampen it by
multiplying those 71 picks by Soft, Mid, and LSM, Woodson’s career adjusted
interceptions come to 83.2, good for the highest mark ever. [1]For the ModTot,
that’s 71 * 142% * 98% * 99%. For the SoftTot, that’s 71 * 121% * 98% * 99%.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameIntoPassInt%ModSoftMidLSMModTotSoftTot Rod
Woodson7184010.85%142%121%98%99%97.783.2 Charles
Woodson6597520.67%162%131%96%100%101.281.9 Ed
Reed6464041.00%158%129%97%100%98.280.1 Paul
Krause8156231.44%91%96%117%88%75.779.3 Darren
Sharper6367610.93%152%126%94%100%90.274.8 Aeneas
Williams5563130.87%146%123%101%100%81.568.6 Ronnie
Lott6366320.95%121%110%99%97%73.066.7 Eugene
Robinson5782350.69%137%118%99%99%75.765.6 Emlen
Tunnell7943151.83%67%83%125%79%52.465.6 Ken
Riley6560451.08%96%98%112%92%64.065.4

Showing 1 to 10 of 352 entries
PreviousNext

Using the actual historical average as a baseline appears to be a bit much,
going by the numbers it produces. I think having Charles Woodson, Ed Reed, Rod
Woodson, a serial rapist, and Aeneas Williams as the top five (by ModTot) is
fine; giving Chuck credit for 101 interceptions is a bit much for me. Moving the
all time leader in picks, Paul Krause, down to ninth also feels a tad harsh as
well. Sure, I think he tends to be overrated by people who look at one number
and base their entire evaluation on that single data point, but I also think
having such a commanding lead over any modern player should count for something.
For this reason, I think the SoftTot column produces results with greater face
validity.

The last column gives us a top ten of seven Hall of Famers, one senior candidate
who will likely get the necessary votes soon, possibly the best safety of the
1990s who would be in Canton already if he played for Dallas or San Francisco,
and a a vile monster who was good at picking off passes and not really much
else.


LET’S BE REASONABLE

The wacky looking career totals form the table above convinced me to try using a
new baseline. I decided to use the last 40 years of football, which incorporates
nearly the entire period of open offense football. [2]I refer to football in the
wake of the Mel Blount Rule and rules enabling offensive linemen to extend their
hands to block in 1978, as well as the subsequent offensive revolution heralded
by the … Continue reading When I looked at that timeframe, the historical
baseline moved from 4.80% to 3.16%. because of that, I have dubbed the new
baseline the Austin Percentage. Having a lower baseline means that fewer players
will see their totals go up, and only the most recent players will their totals
go up significantly.

The table below is sorted by the last column, but you can sort by any of the
headings. Using Krause as our example, read the table thus: Krause picked off 81
passes against 5623 attempts at a 1.44% rate. His volume adjustment is worth
117%, and his league strength multiplier is worth 88%. His Austin figure is 60%,
which comes to 80% when the effect is halved. [3]Recall from the first table
that his Mod and Soft were 91% and 96% because of the highest baseline. If we
apply the Mid, LSM, and Austin modifiers to Krause’s 81 actual interceptions,
his total plummets to 49.9, which ranks tenth on the career list. If we replace
the Austin modifier with the softened version, Krause’s number falls to just
66.4, which allows him to maintain his place atop the interception mountain.
[4]To arrive at the numbers in the Austin column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 60%.
To find the results for the HalfTot column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 80%. These
figures are rounded and will produce … Continue reading

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameIntoPassInt%MidLSMAustin%Half%AustinHalfTot Paul
Krause8156231.44%117%88%60%80%49.966.4 Rod
Woodson7184010.85%98%99%93%96%63.866.3 Charles
Woodson6597520.67%96%100%107%103%66.664.5 Ed
Reed6464041.00%97%100%106%103%65.563.7 Darren
Sharper6367610.93%94%100%100%100%59.659.5 Emlen
Tunnell7943151.83%125%79%45%73%35.457.0 Ken
Riley6560451.08%112%92%64%82%42.554.6 Aeneas
Williams5563130.87%101%100%96%98%53.654.6 Ronnie
Lott6366320.95%99%97%81%90%48.754.6 Dave Brown6263860.97%105%95%72%86%44.953.4

Showing 1 to 10 of 241 entries
PreviousNext

If you earnestly believe older players relied too much on archaic passing to
glean their big interception totals, the Austin column might be for you. Before
we find Krause at number ten, only Rod Woodson and Eugene Robinson had any
action prior to 1990. Recent ball hawk Richard Sherman is in a fourteen-way tie
for 104th place in career interceptions, with 37. However, when Austin 3.16
comes around, Sherman jumps to 18th, which does feel more appropriate for one of
the premier turnover artists of recent vintage. In fact, his 8.4 interception
boost is the highest number of any player, just beating out the bonuses of 8.3
and 8.1 for fellow playmakers Xavien Howard and Marcus Peters. Wandering
mercenary Aqib Talib finds himself pretty high on the career list when looking
at the Austin total.

While some recent players saw modest gains, older players saw their totals fall
off a cliff with the lower baseline. Emlen Tunnell, a real life hero who picked
off 79 passes—but did most of his damage in the 1950s—suffers a reduction of
43.6 from his total. He goes from ranking second on the official list to 54th on
the Austin list. That seems a little steep, even to a noted old school player
hater like I am. Night Train Lane and Johnny Robinson join Krause and Tunnell as
the only other players to lose at least 30 from their totals.
Turn-of-the-century players like Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain see almost no
change in their career numbers.

I think the last column makes the most sense at first glace. Tunnell, Robinson,
and Jim Norton all lose more than 20 from their real numbers, and no one gains
more than 3.6. Krause loses 14.6, but because Tunnell lost 22 and his lead over
anyone else was huge, he remains in first place. Rod Woodson loses 4.7 from his
total, while Charles Woodson and Ed Reed each lose about half a pick, resulting
in the three ending pretty clustered, and all close to Krause at the top. While
Tunnell has a large reduction, his actual number of interceptions was so high to
begin with that he still ranks sixth here.

I am often interested to see where Ken Riley and Dave Brown will fall, relative
to one another. Riley has 65 interceptions to Brown’s 62. The Austin adjustment
puts Brown ahead, while my preferred adjustment leaves the Bengals legend with a
54.6 to 53.4 lead. Riley never made a Pro Bowl, but he earned first team all pro
honors once and second team honors twice. Brown made one Pro Bowl and one all
pro second team. Given how close together these two are in terms of actual
production, the gap in their public perception is pretty interesting to me. When
you consider the fact that Brown was his team’s top corner, while Lemar Parrish
was the top corner in Cincinnati until 1977, the issue is further muddled.

I will leave further commentary to the FP faithful, if any remain.

 

References[+]

References ↑1 For the ModTot, that’s 71 * 142% * 98% * 99%. For the SoftTot,
that’s 71 * 121% * 98% * 99%. ↑2 I refer to football in the wake of the Mel
Blount Rule and rules enabling offensive linemen to extend their hands to block
in 1978, as well as the subsequent offensive revolution heralded by the likes of
Bill Walsh, Don Coryell, and Joe Gibbs. ↑3 Recall from the first table that his
Mod and Soft were 91% and 96% because of the highest baseline. ↑4 To arrive at
the numbers in the Austin column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 60%. To find the
results for the HalfTot column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 80%. These figures are
rounded and will produce slightly different results if you copy and paste to
work with them yourself.

Tagged as: adjusted interceptions, Bryan Frye, Guest Posts

{ 0 comments }


ADJUSTED INTERCEPTIONS: SINGLE SEASONS

by Bryan Frye on August 25, 2022
in Defense

I recently reopened a discussion about sacks Chase started years ago. Today, I’m
going to rehash another topic our prolific host has covered time and again (and
again): adjusting interceptions for era. Unlike sacks, which have official
number dating back to 1982 and unofficial ones published as far back as 1960,
interceptions have official records as far back as 1940. This gives us much more
data to work with, but it also provides similar challenges that Sid Luckman
presents when adjusting passing stats: the game is so different now from what it
was in the 1940s that trying to compare the numbers side by side ends up killing
newer players when adjusting for dropbacks or hurting older players when
adjusting for passing environment. But getting it 85% right is better than not
doing anything at all, so I’m going to do it anyway. As I did with the sack
posts, I will go through my progressions of adjustments one step at a time, so
that you can see how we arrived at the final numbers.


NORMALIZING FOR VOLUME

It stands to reason that intercepting ten passes against 300 attempts is more
impressive than intercepting the same number of passes against 600 attempts—at
least, as far as getting interceptions is at all impressive when divorced from
other aspects of play. Because of this, it is necessary to put players on a more
even playing field. Using Bill Dudley‘s frankly ridiculous 1946 season as an
example, follow the table like so: Dudley, playing in 1946 for the Steelers,
appeared in 11 games and snagged 10 interceptions against 162 opponent pass
attempts. That comes to an outlandish 6.17% interception rate. If we adjust for
volume by giving all players credit for their interception rate multiplied by
500 attempts, Dudley’s 1946 comes to 30.9 picks per 500 passes. If you look at
that number and mutter “well, that’s just too high,” then we are in agreement.
Thus, I took the average of their actual picks and their attempts per 500 passes
to find the number in the last column, which I have labeled Mid. Using that
adjustment instead, Dudley’s season was only good for 20.4 volume-adjusted
interceptions.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameYearTmGIntoPassInt%Int/500Mid Bill Dudley1946PIT11101626.17%30.920.4 Sammy
Baugh1943WAS10111935.70%28.519.8 Dan Sandifer1948WAS12132894.50%22.517.7 Jack
Butler1957PIT12102344.27%21.415.7 Irv Comp1943GNB9102424.13%20.715.3 Night Train
Lane1952RAM12143603.89%19.416.7 Lindon Crow1956CRD12112873.83%19.215.1 Howard
Hartley1951PIT12102663.76%18.814.4 Art Jones1941PIT1171883.72%18.612.8 Frank
Reagan1947NYG10102763.62%18.114.1

Showing 1 to 10 of 648 entries
PreviousNext

If we stop here, it’s easy to see the glaring issue: the much higher
interception rate in the days of yore leaves us with a list that doesn’t feature
it’s first player after the year 2000 until the 210th spot. Even using the mid
number, Ty Law‘s 2005 doesn’t show up until 115. Clearly, we need to keep going.


INCORPORATING LEAGUE ENVIRONMENT

The next step is to incorporate the league average interception rate for each
season. To do this, I used all seasons from 1940-2021 and found the three-year
rolling average, with each given year in the middle (So 2017 would include the
average of seasons 2016-2018). Then, I found three numbers: the cumulative
interception rate from 1940-2021 (4.02%), the average of averages for each year
in the sample (5.18%), and the median rate from the sample (5.21%). Then I took
the average of those three numbers (4.80%) and used it as the historical
baseline.

The next two tables use this step. The first of the two displays adjusted
interception rates, while the latter of the two displays adjusted totals. Using
Xavien Howard‘s 2020 as an example, read the table thus: Howard played 16 games
and had 10 interceptions against 545 attempts, good for a 1.83% pick rate. The
rolling average for 2020 is 2.28%, so Howard gets a boost of 210.5% (4.80/2.28)
in the column labeled Mod. If you think that’s too higher, I included a softened
version, which is the average of Mod and 100% (in this case, the Soft number is
155.2%). When using the Mod figure to adjust his interception rate, Howard gets
credit for a rate of 3.86% (that’s 1.83% * 210.5%), the highest number on
record. Using the softened version gives him 2.85% (1.83% * 155.2%), which ranks
18th.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameYearTmGIntoPassInt%ModSoftMod%Soft% Xavien
Howard2020MIA16105451.83%210.5%155.2%3.86%2.85% J.C.
Jackson2020NWE1694941.82%210.5%155.2%3.83%2.83% Trevon
Diggs2021DAL16116121.80%211.2%155.6%3.80%2.80% Bill
Dudley1946PIT11101626.17%54.5%77.3%3.37%4.77% Ty
Law2005NYJ16104632.16%152.4%126.2%3.29%2.73% J.C.
Jackson2021NWE1785381.49%211.2%155.6%3.14%2.31% Jack
Butler1957PIT12102344.27%71.1%85.5%3.04%3.66% Ronde
Barber2001TAM16104932.03%149.1%124.5%3.02%2.53% Nnamdi
Asomugha2006RAI1584101.95%153.6%126.8%3.00%2.47% Asante
Samuel2006NWE15105181.93%153.6%126.8%2.96%2.45%

Showing 1 to 10 of 430 entries
PreviousNext

This one is interesting to me, because the modified version seems too skewed in
favor of modern players, while the softened version doesn’t feel harsh enough
toward the old guys. We’ll go to the table below to see what that looks like in
terms of interceptions rather just the more abstract percentages.


INCORPORATING LEAGUE ENVIRONMENT (AGAIN)

Let’s use J.C. Jackson as our example this time. In 2020, he played 16 games and
hauled in 9 interceptions. We know his adjusted rates from the table above.
Using the full modifier on his actual interceptions gives him 18.9 adjusted
interceptions, while using the soft modifier gives him 14.0. Jackson is the rare
current player who actually gets a boost from using per 500 attempt numbers,
albeit a small one. Using the full modifier multiplied by his interceptions per
500 attempts (9.1 from the first table) leaves him with 19.2, while using the
softened version gives him credit for 14.1. Note, I did not use the Mid figure
from the first table, because too many columns makes these things unwieldy, in
my opinion. Instead, I saved that for the last table.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameYearTmGIntModIntSoftIntMod/500Soft/500 Xavien
Howard2020MIA161021.015.519.314.2 J.C. Jackson2020NWE16918.914.019.214.1 Trevon
Diggs2021DAL161123.217.119.014.0 Bill Dudley1946PIT11105.57.716.823.8 Ty
Law2005NYJ161015.212.616.513.6 J.C. Jackson2021NWE17816.912.415.711.6 Jack
Butler1957PIT12107.18.615.218.3 Ronde Barber2001TAM161014.912.515.112.6 Nnamdi
Asomugha2006RAI15812.310.115.012.4 Asante Samuel2006NWE151015.412.714.812.2

Showing 1 to 10 of 430 entries
PreviousNext

Looking at the Mod and Soft multipliers applied to interceptions, without
accounting for volume, just leaves us with a huge list of recent players. While
I believe modern defenders to be both superior and in a more difficult position
because of rules and schemes, I don’t think it makes sense to give them this
much of a boost. Especially when the point of this whole exercise is not to
measure the quality of a player, but rather use a variety of factors to more
appropriately compare his interception totals to those of other defenders. One
need only look at the career of Darrelle Revis to know that having a relatively
low turnover total doesn’t preclude a player from greatness. And Ken Riley‘s
career makes it evident that a player can find himself quite high on the career
pick list without having been the best cornerback on his own team during his
prime.


PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Below is the final table for today. Here, I have tried to strike a balance
between adjusting for volume and adjusting for environment, but I kept battling
with myself over whether I preferred full rate modifiers or soft ones. So I
decided to just present both and let the reader decide. Using the controversial
2021 Trevon Diggs season, read the table thus: in 16 games, Diggs had 11
interceptions against 612 passes, good for a 1.80% rate. His Mid volume
adjustment (from the first table) is worth 91%. That, combined with his
211.2%environmental modifier (Mod from the second table) gives him 21.1 adjusted
interceptions in the Mod-Mid column. Using the Soft modifier instead gives him
15.5.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameYearTmGIntoPassInt%MidMod-MidSoft-Mid Bill
Dudley1946PIT11101626.17%204%11.115.8 Trevon Diggs2021DAL16116121.80%91%21.115.5
Xavien Howard2020MIA16105451.83%96%20.214.9 Dan
Sandifer1948WAS12132894.50%137%11.014.4 Sammy
Baugh1943WAS10111935.70%180%9.114.4 J.C. Jackson2020NWE1694941.82%101%19.114.1
Night Train Lane1952RAM12143603.89%119%11.013.8 Jack
Butler1957PIT12102344.27%157%11.113.4 Ty Law2005NYJ16104632.16%104%15.913.1
Lester Hayes1980RAI16135242.48%98%13.613.1

Showing 1 to 10 of 625 entries
PreviousNext

Instead of using the 4.80% historical baseline that I found, Chase most recently
used 3.5%. Doing so doesn’t do much to the orders of the lists any, but it does
have a significant impact on the totals by degree. So Diggs would still rank
first in the Mod-Mid column and second in the Soft-Mid column, but he would have
something closer to 15.4 and 12.7 as his adjusted interception total. While
these numbers are more or less abstract and don’t really matter, I do think
having the lower baseline Chase used produces results that look more realistic,
even if the 3.5% figure was chosen at random (and I don’t know if it was or was
not chosen at random). In fact, when I looked at career totals, I actually
preferred to use an even lower baseline of 3.16%, which represents the last 40
years of football and covers basically the entire period of post-1978 rules
changes that help permanently drop leaguewide interception rates below five
percent.

When looking at the results above, the last column seems to produce the most
even mix of old and new players. Oddly, however, I may prefer the Mod-Mid column
when looking at career totals, which we will see later.  [1]How much later, I
simply cannot say. Regardless, I think accounting for both volume and passing
environment, in some form or fashion, helps put the numbers into more proper
context. Even if it does take a little shine off my man Dick Lane.

 

References[+]

References ↑1 How much later, I simply cannot say.

Tagged as: adjusted interceptions, Bryan Frye, Guest Posts

{ 1 comment }


ADJUSTED SACKS: CAREER TOTALS

by Bryan Frye on August 19, 2022
in Defense

Recently, I reintroduced the concept of adjusted sack numbers for individual
player seasons. [1]I say recently because Chase published an article about the
idea as early as 2015, and I recall reading articles that touched on the issue
at the old PFR blog. The logical next step, to me, is to take a look at those
stats in the context of full careers. I liked the idea of presenting career data
in terms of per-500 dropback metrics and cumulative totals. On top of the
methodologies we discussed in the last post, I also wanted to introduce two new
ways to look at the information. I hope it proves interesting, and I apologize
in advance for my spectacular inability to come up with better acronyms,
initialisms, and abbreviations.


NORMALIZED FOR VOLUME

The table below contains every player in history with at least 30 sacks (or 30
in the last column) since 1960. Read it thus: Deacon Jones played in 191 games
and recorded 173.5 sacks against 5891 dropbacks. His 2.95% career sack rate
means he was good for 14.7 sacks per 500 dropbacks over the course of his entire
career. If we take his sacks per 500 dropbacks totals from each season and add
them together, we get 203.3, which is easily the highest mark ever.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameGSkODBSk%S/500Tot Deacon Jones191173.558912.95%14.7203.3 Bruce
Smith279200103371.93%9.7185.4 Alan Page218148.563482.34%11.7179.1 Reggie
White23219887782.26%11.3171.1 Carl Eller225133.565412.04%10.2167.5 Jack
Youngblood202151.564022.37%11.8167.4 Claude Humphrey17113054602.38%11.9161.9 Jim
Marshall282130.580381.62%8.1161.1 Coy Bacon180130.559742.18%10.9152.9 Cedrick
Hardman171122.552702.32%11.6147.8

Showing 1 to 10 of 621 entries
PreviousNext

As you probably expected, older players and T.J. Watt dominate the S/500 column.
Guys like Robustelli and Marchetti played against offensive linemen hamstrung by
rules, while Watt is a quarterback killer still in his prime. When we look in
the last column, we can see how much the small differences in each season add up
to a big gap between Bruce Smith and Reggie White. Three members of the Purple
People Eaters appear in the top eight, though one guy took an additional
sixty-ish games to get there.

Also, is it possible that the Hall of Fame actually doesn’t like pass rushers as
much as people think?


LEAGUE ENVIRONMENT INCORPORATED

In order to account for the easier environment for getting into the backfield
long ago, we will use the modified and soft-modified conversions we used in the
last article. The table contains any pass rusher who recorded at least 30 actual
sacks or reached 30 in either of the last two columns. Read it thus: Alan Page
played 218 games and recorded 148.5 sacks against 6348 dropbacks, which is good
for a rate of 2.34%. His modifier is worth 91.5%, which becomes 95.7% when
softened. For his career, he had 10.7 modified sacks per 500 dropbacks and 11.2
soft-modified sacks per 500 dropbacks. If we take the cumulative totals of those
two stats, Page had 160.7 and 169.9, respectively.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameGSkODBSk%ModSoftMod500Soft500ModTotSoftTot Bruce
Smith279200103371.93%104.8%102.4%10.19.9193.0189.2 Deacon
Jones191173.558912.95%86.2%93.1%12.713.7173.7188.5 Reggie
White23219887782.26%103.7%101.9%11.711.5174.6172.9 Alan
Page218148.563482.34%91.5%95.7%10.711.2160.7169.9 Jack
Youngblood202151.564022.37%91.6%95.8%10.811.3151.9159.6 Carl
Eller225133.565412.04%87.9%93.9%9.09.6145.8156.7 Claude
Humphrey17113054602.38%92.4%96.2%11.011.5146.3154.1 Jim
Marshall282130.580381.62%86.7%93.3%7.07.6138.3149.7 Julius
Peppers266159.599021.61%114.9%107.4%9.38.7157.4147.2 Coy
Bacon180130.559742.18%91.4%95.7%10.010.5137.9145.4

Showing 1 to 10 of 617 entries
PreviousNext

When we look at the Soft500 column, we get a fun mix of characters. The Deacon
is on top, followed by the younger Watt. Then we get another legend followed by
another guy with scant games under his belt. Marchetti and Robustelli have a
significant chunk of their careers omitted from this study because Turney and
Webster haven’t finished their work on pre-1960 sacks, but the fact that they
rank so highly on a per season basis despite not having years prior to their
mid-thirties demonstrates how apt they were at pass rushing.

Alex Karras probably would have been in the Hall of Fame earlier were it not for
his gambling controversy, while Claude Humphrey likely belongs on more lists of
greatest pass rushers. Watch his tape, and you’ll see a guy whose athleticism
stands out in the same way that Len Ford‘s did earlier or Julius Peppers‘s did
later. Coy Bacon ranks tenth in the SoftTot column. He is a mere 4.3 below Jim
Marshall, despite appearing in over one hundred fewer games.


CONCENTRATION ACCOUNTED FOR

Now it’s time to take pass rushing depth into consideration by applying a league
concentration adjustment to each player. Here’s how to read the table, using
Reggie White as an example: White’s career concentration adjustment is worth
1.036, meaning he gets a 3.6% boost to his stats from previous steps. For
comparison’s sake, he had 198 actual sacks. When applying the concentration
adjustment to his sacks per 500 dropbacks, his number comes to 11.7. If we
include the modifier for league sack environment, that number jumps to 12.1.
Softening that modifier brings his number down a bit, this time to 11.9. When we
add all of White’s single-season figures in concentration-adjusted sacks per 500
dropbacks, his career total is 177.7. The cumulative number for the modified
version of that comes to 181.1, and the softened iteration totals 179.4.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameConcSoftGSkCS/500CMS/500CSS/500CS500TotCMS500TotCSS500Tot Bruce
Smith1.04127920010.110.510.3192.8200.5196.7 Deacon
Jones0.950191173.514.012.013.0194.1165.7179.9 Reggie
White1.03623219811.712.111.9177.7181.1179.4 Alan
Page0.965218148.511.310.310.8172.3154.7163.5 Jack
Youngblood0.990202151.511.710.711.2163.6148.7156.1 Julius
Peppers1.032266159.58.39.58.9141.7162.7152.2 Carl
Eller0.957225133.59.88.69.2159.8139.0149.4 Kevin
Greene1.03421316010.611.110.8145.7152.4149.0 Claude
Humphrey0.96917113011.510.711.1154.9140.0147.4 Jason
Taylor1.054233139.59.010.09.5135.6150.4143.0

Showing 1 to 10 of 629 entries
PreviousNext

The thing that stands out to me is the placement of John Abraham. He is tied for
eighteenth on the official sack list but jumps to thirteenth when sorting by the
penultimate column. Abraham made five Pro Bowls and three all pro first teams,
which doesn’t scream “Hall of Fame,” but he had eight seasons with double digit
sacks and two more seasons in which he missed games but still notched 9.5 sacks.
In 2003, he played in just seven games but managed 6 sacks. Had he stayed
healthy in 2003-04, he likely would have had five consecutive seasons with 10+
sacks after becoming a starter. Abraham was a few injuries away from retiring
with eleven seasons in the double digits. I remember watching footage of the
highly celebrated Robustelli and thinking his postseasons honors indicate a
Reggie White level of play but the tape suggested he was more akin to John
Abraham. The per-season numbers in this table support that notion. If the second
best Bengals cornerback of the 1970s can make it to Canton, maybe Abraham has a
chance at a senior nod one day. [2]Note, I wouldn’t put him in, but with the bar
being set at the Sprinkle and Riley level, I don’t think I know what a HOFer is
anymore.


DOMINANCE EXALTED

The table below displays what I think is a more accurate representation of what
we think about when we think about great pass rushers. Instead of career
compilation, we’re looking at career value over a given baseline. [3]Refer to
the previous article for the methodology. Read the table thus: Jack Youngblood
played in 202 games and recorded 151.5 sacks. For his career, his sack rate was
1.04% better than the league baseline, giving him 5.2 extra sacks per 500
dropbacks. When summing his individual seasons in that metric, he was worth 74.3
sacks above baseline. If we apply the concentration adjustment to his career
numbers, he was worth 69.8 added sacks. When we get rid of all seasons that are
below average and look only at what might be considered peak production,
Youngblood’s value jumps to 72.4.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameGSacksODBSack%VAL%VAL500VAL500TotCAVPCAV Deacon
Jones191173.558912.95%1.54%7.7104.796.2100.4 Reggie
White23219887782.26%1.08%5.482.989.490.6 Bruce
Smith279200103371.93%0.77%3.974.880.186.3 Claude
Humphrey17113054602.38%1.06%5.375.567.975.8 Alan
Page218148.563482.34%1.01%5.178.872.873.4 Jack
Youngblood202151.564022.37%1.04%5.274.369.872.4 Al
Baker18113163082.08%0.82%4.158.159.368.3 Kevin
Greene21316078092.05%0.89%4.459.463.166.4 Cedrick
Hardman171122.552702.32%1.01%5.068.061.165.8 Simeon
Rice17412257502.12%0.98%4.948.654.565.3

Showing 1 to 10 of 598 entries
PreviousNext

This table is a numeric representation of why Jim Marshall can rank 23rd in
career sacks and not make it to the Hall of Fame. For his career, he was barely
above the baseline, meaning he was ultimately worth about 19 extra sacks.
Compare that with Bacon, who shares a ranking on the unofficial career list.
Because his sack performances were more dominant, his career sack value is 54.7,
which puts him in elite company. Cedrick Hardman, Simeon Rice, Harvey Martin,
and Jack Gregory are a few other players who stand out as dominant sack artists
who may be underrated now.


SOMETHING NEW

I figured I would throw in a few new concepts just to round out the discussion.
I have long been a fan of Pro Football Reference’s passing index scores, and I
have created my own versions of them for several different stats. This time, I
applied the methodology to defensive sack rates. Also, because the results of
the single season and career numbers still seem to favor older players, despite
the entire purpose of this exercise being to translate across eras, I wanted to
incorporate the league strength modifiers I have been working on for the past
several years. [4]These take into account things like integration vs
segregation, positional specialization, league attractiveness vs other sports,
pay, the existence of rival leagues, U.S. population of NFL-aged men, … Continue
reading People who lament that football today isn’t like the football idealized
by marvelous NFL Films creations may not like this.

The below chart shows every player with at least 3000 dropbacks faced. Using
Jared Allen as an example, read the table thus: Allen had 134 sacks against 6426
dropbacks for a 2.09% sack rate. His sack rate was nearly a full standard
deviation above the median, giving him a sack rate+ of 113.5. [5]Highest on
record, min 3000 dropbacks faced. T.J. Watt will take over the top spot soon. He
currently has a rate+ of 117.2. Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons are also higher than
Allen, though they are … Continue reading His concentration-adjusted career sack
value, after accounting for league strength, is 61.1. When we look at only his
positive value seasons, it raises slightly to 61.7.

Show 102550100 entries
Search:

NameSkODBSk%Sk+POWVALPOW PVAL Reggie White19887782.26%112.387.788.9 Bruce
Smith200103371.93%110.379.185.2 Deacon Jones173.558912.95%112.480.183.9 Claude
Humphrey13054602.38%109.860.968.3 Jack Youngblood151.564022.37%110.164.967.1
Alan Page148.563482.34%109.465.966.4 Kevin Greene16078092.05%111.162.565.7
Simeon Rice12157502.10%113.160.165.2 Al Baker13163082.08%109.756.364.9 Jared
Allen13464262.09%113.561.161.7

Showing 1 to 10 of 547 entries
PreviousNext

I believe the top ten, as ranked by the last column, is a great list of stellar
sacksmiths. A decent era range shows up, and there doesn’t seem to be too much
skew toward older or newer players. However, this may be because it more closely
lines up with my subjective view of these players, and we love to have our
priors confirmed.

The lowest ranked players on the list are linebackers who had a decent number of
sacks but played in coverage too often to reasonably compete with edge rushers,
as well as interior linemen who played a ton of snaps but weren’t primarily pass
rushers.

What stands out to you?

 

References[+]

References ↑1 I say recently because Chase published an article about the idea
as early as 2015, and I recall reading articles that touched on the issue at the
old PFR blog. ↑2 Note, I wouldn’t put him in, but with the bar being set at the
Sprinkle and Riley level, I don’t think I know what a HOFer is anymore. ↑3 Refer
to the previous article for the methodology. ↑4 These take into account things
like integration vs segregation, positional specialization, league
attractiveness vs other sports, pay, the existence of rival leagues, U.S.
population of NFL-aged men, number of players playing high school and college
football in preceding years, etc. ↑5 Highest on record, min 3000 dropbacks
faced. T.J. Watt will take over the top spot soon. He currently has a rate+ of
117.2. Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons are also higher than Allen, though they are
much further from reaching the 3000 dropback threshold.

Tagged as: adjusted sacks, Bryan Frye, Guest Posts

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ADJUSTED SACKS: SINGLE SEASONS

by Bryan Frye on August 16, 2022
in Defense

In 2015 (and, again, in 2018), Chase published his methodology for comparing
individual sack seasons across eras. At the time, we had only the official
numbers available, so the comparisons didn’t capture any performances prior to
1982. Now, thanks to the work of dedicated researchers John Turney and Nick
Webster, we have reliable sack data dating back to 1960 (with more likely to
come in the future). [1]Thanks to Webster, specifically, we also have the
numbers for Len Ford‘s outlandish 1951 campaign. Although I don’t have the same
context for that season, I will be including it with … Continue reading With all
the new information available, I was excited to pick up where Chase left off and
include the additional 22 years of preceding data. Because of the new seasons
included, the results of this post will differ from Chase’s, even among players
included in the original article, so this should offer some new insight beyond
adding names to the list.


NORMALIZING FOR VOLUME

The first step is to account for the fact that teams throw the ball more
frequently today than they did in the sixties, eighties, or even the aughts. To
do this, I am going to do what Chase did, because it seemed like a reasonable
first step to me. That first step is to find the number of dropbacks a player’s
team faced that season and calculate the percentage of those plays on which he
sacked the quarterback. [2]There is a case to be made that one should only
include dropbacks in games which players participated. So Jared Allen would only
count as having played 14 games in 2007, rather than 16 games. … Continue
reading Next, we multiply that number by 500 in order to put pass rushers on a
more even playing field.

Take Cleveland Elam‘s 1977, for example. He dropped opposing quarterbacks 17.5
times while the 49ers faced just 312 dropbacks. That gives him an incredible
5.61% sack rate, which translates to 28.0 sacks against 500 dropbacks. [continue
reading…]

References[+]

References ↑1 Thanks to Webster, specifically, we also have the numbers for Len
Ford‘s outlandish 1951 campaign. Although I don’t have the same context for that
season, I will be including it with those from 1960 onward. ↑2 There is a case
to be made that one should only include dropbacks in games which players
participated. So Jared Allen would only count as having played 14 games in 2007,
rather than 16 games. However, I think availability is important and don’t wish
to further bolster a player for missing time during the season.

Tagged as: adjusted sacks, Bryan Frye, Guest Posts

{ 1 comment }


BOXSCORE VS. PFF: ERA IN REVIEW

by Bryan Frye on July 26, 2022
in Passing, Quarterbacks, Statistics

Adam Steele is back with more analysis of traditional box score stats versus Pro
Football Focus’s big time throw and turnover-worthy play metrics. And we thank
him for it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A couple of weeks ago, I compared TD/INT and BTT/TWP numbers for the 2021
season. Today we’ll be looking at the entire Pro Football Focus era going back
to 2006.

Before compiling the data, I hypothesized that TD/INT and BTT/TWP would track in
relative lockstep, though perhaps the upward slope of the PFF metrics would be
less severe. That turns out to be true for 2006-07 and 2014-21, but oh boy was
there some wackiness taking place in between. In the graph below, you’ll see
league TD-INT difference in blue and league BTT-TWP difference in red: [continue
reading…]

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts, luck

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: 2019 GRIDFE HALL OF FAME DEFENSE

by Bryan Frye on July 15, 2022
in HOF

The following article originally appeared on the now-defunct GridFe website but
never found its way to Football Perspective after Adam Steele and I decided to
shut things down in our little corner of the internet. For the sake of having a
reference, I have decided to republish in Chase’s space. Below is the article as
originally published following the 2018 season.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last year, I unveiled the GridFe Hall of Fame, a group effort of football
diehards dissatisfied with (and unencumbered by the logistical limitations of)
the Pro Football Hall of Fame. [1]The GrideFe Hall of Fame Committee comprises
research guru Topher Doll, standard human Bryan Frye, actual genius Adam
Harstad, enigmatic fount of knowledge Raider Joe, potentate of … Continue
reading This Hall of Fame has very few rules outside of a minimum five “yea”
votes out of a possible six for enshrinement. We have no waiting period for
induction. If it’s obvious that Tom Brady belongs, he’s in; if we need to take
some time to put Julio Jones‘s stats into perspective, we will. We don’t have
contribution silos. I didn’t vote for John Madden solely as a coach but as a
coach, influential broadcaster, and video game pioneer. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References ↑1 The GrideFe Hall of Fame Committee comprises research guru Topher
Doll, standard human Bryan Frye, actual genius Adam Harstad, enigmatic fount of
knowledge Raider Joe, potentate of prognostication Thomas McDermott, and
quarterback aficionado Adam Steele.

Tagged as: Bryan Frye, gridfe hall of fame, Guest Posts

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: 2019 GRIDFE HALL OF FAME OFFENSE

by Bryan Frye on July 14, 2022
in HOF

The following article originally appeared on the now-defunct GridFe website but
never found its way to Football Perspective after Adam Steele and I decided to
shut things down in our little corner of the internet. For the sake of having a
reference, I have decided to republish in Chase’s space. Below is the article as
originally published following the 2018 season.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The GridFe Hall of Fame 2019 class features no quarterbacks and is heavy on
running backs, tight ends, and linemen. [1]The only quarterback who received
votes got just two of them. Meanwhile, several linemen just missed the cut.
Unlike the defensive hall of fame class, the offense features no active players.
In fact, the most recent player last played in 1988. Perhaps that’s indicative
of more clearly worthy defensive players in today’s league, or maybe it simply
means more voters have taken a wait-and-see approach with regards to positions
that have seen significant stat inflation in recent years. [2]An alternative
theory is that we voted for all the worthy offensive players in the inaugural
class. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald,
Jason Witten, and Antonio … Continue reading It’s outlandish to believe that
with greater talent than ever before, only one hall of fame caliber wide
receiver has entered the league in the last twenty years. Is it possible we have
exercised too much caution with modern players? I don’t know, but it’s certainly
possible. Below are eight inductees for this year’s class. Read and determine
for yourself. [3]Others receiving votes: Len Dawson, Curtis Martin, Ollie
Matson*, Bobby Mitchell*, Elroy Hirsch, Pete Pihos*, Rayfield Wright*, Jim
Tyrer*, Gary Zimmerman*, Joe DeLamielleure*


GRIDFE HALL OF FAME OFFENSE

Marion Motley (1946-1955)
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
5 First Team All Pros (4 AAFC/1 NFL), 1 Pro Bowl, 6 Title Wins, 3 Title Losses,
1 GridFe World Award (AAFC), 1 GridFe Sweetness Award, 1 GridFe Supersonic
Award, 7 GridFe Motley Awards (4 AAFC/3 NFL) [4]The Pro Bowl didn’t exist when
Motley played in the AAFC, but he was worthy of the honor all four years.
[continue reading…]

References[+]

References ↑1 The only quarterback who received votes got just two of them.
Meanwhile, several linemen just missed the cut. ↑2 An alternative theory is that
we voted for all the worthy offensive players in the inaugural class. Tom Brady,
Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, and
Antonio Gates are still playing. Rob Gronkowski and Joe Thomas were active when
we began voting. I suspect with another season to evaluate their careers from a
historical perspective, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown will garner more
attention. If people are voting for Len Dawson, Philip Rivers and Ben
Roethlisberger may also join the discussion. Perhaps Marshal Yanda will receive
the recognition from us he deserved from national media. ↑3 Others receiving
votes: Len Dawson, Curtis Martin, Ollie Matson*, Bobby Mitchell*, Elroy Hirsch,
Pete Pihos*, Rayfield Wright*, Jim Tyrer*, Gary Zimmerman*, Joe DeLamielleure*
↑4 The Pro Bowl didn’t exist when Motley played in the AAFC, but he was worthy
of the honor all four years.

Tagged as: Bryan Frye, gridfe hall of fame, Guest Posts

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GUEST POST: IMPROVING ON TD:INT RATIO

by Bryan Frye on July 6, 2022
in Passing, Quarterbacks

Adam Steele is back with the crazy notion that we should stop using stochastic,
binary events in ratio form as the basis for judging quarterbacks. Fancy that.
We thank Adam for his ideas and analysis.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The most commonly cited quarterback stats in mainstream analysis are touchdown
passes and interceptions, usually presented as TD/INT ratio. This essentially
functions as shorthand to compare the quantity of a player’s great plays against
his terrible plays. But this is quite unfortunate since both stats are very
noisy and situation dependent. TD/INT ratio not only lacks important information
but it can be downright misleading at times.

Luckily for us the good folks at Pro Football Focus have come up with a much
better alternative: Big Time Throws (BTT) and Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP). These
stats are tabulated by watching film so they capture far more signal than the
process-blind box score numbers. Passers get credited with a BTT when they make
a throw that goes well beyond what’s expected on a given play, and this includes
passes which are dropped or wiped out by penalty. Meanwhile a TWP is charged
when a throw is made that has a good chance of being intercepted (whether it’s
actually picked or not), or when the QB gets careless with the ball during his
dropback and fumbles when such an error could’ve been avoided. [continue
reading…]

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts

{ 1 comment }


EXAMINING PASSING DISTRIBUTION IN THE NFL SINCE 1970 (PART 2)

by Chase Stuart on June 27, 2022
in History, Theory

Ten years ago, I looked at the passing distribution of NFL teams since 1970.
Let’s revisit that post today, with an expanded look at what’s happened over the
last decade.

I examined every season in the NFL since 1970, when the AFL and NFL merged.
[1]It is not lost on me that NFL history is not linear, and in many ways, the
1960s is more similar to the 1980s than the 1970s. That said, out of laziness, I
only went back to 1970. I then calculated the percentage of receiving yards for
each team that went to its running backs, tight ends and wide receivers. The
graph below shows the breakdown from each season from 1970 through 2021. [2]Some
caveats: Obviously many players straddle the line across multiple positions.
There are some judgment calls involved with H-Backs, tight ends turned wide
receivers, running backs turned tight … Continue reading. There are two large
trends: wide receivers have become slightly more important over time, jumping
from 53% of the receiving pie during the ’70s to 63% over the last ten years.
The entire jump, though, came in the aftermath of the 1978 rules changes, as the
percentage of receiving yards that went to wide receivers steadily rose form 53%
in 1977 to 62% in 1987 and 1988.

The other notable change is the switch in primacy of the tight end relative to
the running back. From 1970 to 1983, running backs gained 27% of all receiving
yards while tight ends picked up just 19% of the pie. That breakdown was pretty
consistent each season: tight ends were at 18%, 19%, or 20% almost every season,
and running backs consistently gained between 25% and 29& of the receiving game.
The 1984 season was a weird outlier: running back production was way down while
tight end production was up, but that was mostly a one year blip. From 1985 to
1994, running backs averaged 22% of the pie, a noticeable decrease from the
pre-1984 era, but tight ends dropped, too, down to 15% during that decade. And
from 1986 through 2007, tight ends were under 20% of the receiving pie each
year. But tight ends have held steady at 20 or 21 percent, while running back
production in the receiving game has dropped to about 16%. In 2004, tight ends
gained more receiving yards as a group than running backs, and it has remained
that way in every season since. This is strongly tied, of course, to the
near-elimination of the fullback position from the modern game. [continue
reading…]

References[+]

References ↑1 It is not lost on me that NFL history is not linear, and in many
ways, the 1960s is more similar to the 1980s than the 1970s. That said, out of
laziness, I only went back to 1970. ↑2 Some caveats: Obviously many players
straddle the line across multiple positions. There are some judgment calls
involved with H-Backs, tight ends turned wide receivers, running backs turned
tight ends, etc. I did my best to make the appropriate call in each case. Note
also that for this article, I’ve eliminated all players who ended the season
with negative receiving yards, and am only looking at receiving yards by running
backs (which includes fullbacks), receivers and tight ends.

Tagged as: 1978 Rules Changes

{ 0 comments }


THE TOP WORKHORSE RUNNING BACKS IN FANTASY FOOTBALL HISTORY

by Chase Stuart on June 13, 2022
in History, Rushing

In 1999 and 2000, no team in NFL history relied on one running back quite like
the Indianapolis Colts.  During those two seasons, Edgerrin James was
responsible for 98% of all carries given to Colts running backs, 99% of all
rushing yards from Indianapolis running backs, and 98% of all yards from
scrimmage and 97% of all touchdowns scored by Colts running backs.  The table
below shows the stats from the nine running backs to play for the Colts during
these two seasons: [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Barry Sanders, Edgerrin James

{ 0 comments }


THE FALL (AND SMALLER RISE) OF RUNNING BACK BY COMMITTEE IN THE NFL

by Chase Stuart on June 6, 2022
in Fantasy, History

Twenty years ago, in the summer of 2002, Doug Drinen wrote this about Running
Back By Committee:

> Any way you want to look at it, the use of RBBC has been decreasing for about
> three decades. In 2000, RBBC was at an all-time (since 1970) low. In 2001, it
> was back up slightly, but was still lower than it has ever been.

Drinen labeled a running back by committee (RBBC) if the team’s top running back
scored less than half of the team’s total fantasy points by running backs. How
do things look over the last 20 years? [1]In my effort re-create Drinen’s study,
I am defining fantasy points as (receptions / 2) + (rushing yards + receiving
yards) / 10 + (rushing TDs + receiving TDs ) * 6. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References ↑1 In my effort re-create Drinen’s study, I am defining fantasy
points as (receptions / 2) + (rushing yards + receiving yards) / 10 + (rushing
TDs + receiving TDs ) * 6.

{ 16 comments }


THE 2022 NFL SCHEDULE

by Chase Stuart on May 21, 2022
in Announcements

Every year, I publish a color-coded version of the NFL schedule the night it is
released. This year, things were delayed a bit, but it’s ready now. [continue
reading…]

Tagged as: NFL Schedule

{ 0 comments }


OVERTIME IN THE PLAYOFFS FROM 2011 THROUGH 2021

by Chase Stuart on January 24, 2022
in Playoffs

The 2009 NFC Championship Game was a classic game featuring two future Hall of
Fame quarterbacks in Brett Favre and Drew Brees. The Vikings battled the Saints
in the Superdome to a 28-28 tie after four quarters. New Orleans won the coin
toss, giving Brees and the offense the ball first. The Saints appeared to go
three-and-out, but an incomplete pass on third down was negated by a defensive
holding penalty. The Saints got to the Vikings 41-yard line, and a pass
interference penalty gave them another 12 yards. A couple of minutes later, and
Garrett Hartley hit a 40-yard field goal to send New Orleans to the Super Bowl.

It was an anticlimactic ending to a great game. After battling for four
quarters, the Saints — aided by a pair of penalties — drove 39 yards in 10 plays
to set up a chip shot field goal and won the game. The coin toss was too
significant a factor in the game, critics felt, especially as kickers were
becoming automatic at longer and longer distances.

So beginning in 2011, the NFL changed the rules: the team that wins the coin
toss can’t win the game on a field goal. It must score a touchdown, or else the
other team would get the ball, too. That would make the flip of the coin a bit
less valuable, or so we were told.

Since then, there have been 11 overtime games played during the NFL playoffs.
The team that won the coin toss has won 10 of those games. Let’s walk down
memory lane: [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Overtime

{ 2 comments }


DO CHAMPIONSHIPS MATTER?

by Bryan Frye on January 24, 2022
in Random Perspective On

Adam Steele comes to us today with a philosophical question regarding the nature
of fandom. We thank him for it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After a weekend in which all four games were coin flips decided on the final
play, I started thinking about how much the results actually matter to fans in
the long run. We’ve had the primacy of titles drilled into our heads throughout
our lives – hoisting the Lombardi trophy is why you play the game, there’s only
one winner and 31 losers, etc. And sure, in the most literal sense, attempting
to win a championship is the reason we hold a season every year.

But how much do championships really matter to fans? My sense is that they
matter far less than you’d initially think. If you ask a group of fans to name
their most cherished football memories, a majority of their answers will
probably not be related to winning it all.

Think about all the amazing player seasons throughout football history. The vast
majority of them did not result in a ring. Did fans of Randy Moss, Barry
Sanders, Dan Marino, or J.J. Watt enjoy their heroes less because they don’t
have the jewelry? Doubtful. It’s more likely that fans will wax poetic about how
they got to watch these legends play.

In many cases, even average players and coaches on perennially losing franchises
become local heroes in their communities. Fans fall in love with players they
feel a connection with irrespective of the number of titles those athletes bring
home. This is why long suffering fanbases of ringless teams often have the most
loyal and devoted followers; it’s more about the journey than the destination.

Quantifying Fan Priorities

There’s actually pretty strong empirical evidence that championships are not the
most important thing to fans. From 2003-2016, ESPN ran a series called Ultimate
Standings (insert hyperlink ESPN The Magazine’s 2016 Ultimate Standings). They
surveyed fans across all four major North American sports to come up with a
formula for determining which teams reward their fans the most. The responses
were whittled down into seven broad categories, weighted by importance:

Fan relations – 27%
Money spent per win – 27%
Players – 15%
Ownership – 13%
Stadium experience – 12%
Championships – 4%
Coaching – 3%

Well look at that! Championships are way down the list of things that fans
consider important. Teams that make a genuine effort to connect to their
communities engender loyal fans regardless of on-field results. Regular season
wins matter but only if fans aren’t being gouged in the process; less frequent
winning is acceptable if being a diehard fan is affordable for the average Joe.
Players are judged by their effort and likability more than their performance.
Having a solid ownership situation and a fun stadium to attend are also several
times more important than past or potential championships.

Does this post resonate with you? What are your favorite memories as a sports
fan? Would you trade those memories for a championship? Let me know in the
comments.

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts

{ 0 comments }


RESTING STARTERS

by Bryan Frye on January 11, 2022
in History, Playoffs

Adam Steele is back again, this time with a look at teams resting their starters
over the years. Bless him.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Over the past few years I’ve been documenting the historical instances of teams
resting their starters in late season games. I like to remove such games when
comparing teams since even a single upside down result can warp a club’s
statistical profile (especially since these meaningless games disproportionately
affect the best teams in a given season). Now that the 2021 regular season is
complete, I figured I might as well share this database with FP readers in hopes
that some of you might find it useful or interesting. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts

{ 0 comments }


JONATHAN TAYLOR RUNS AWAY WITH THE RUSHING CROWN

by Chase Stuart on January 10, 2022
in History, Rushing, Statistics

Jonathan Taylor had a season for the ages. Here are the top 10 yards per carry
seasons by a running back with at least 300 carries:

  Games Rushing Rk Player Age Draft Tm Lg Year
▼ G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G 1 Jonathan Taylor 22 2-41 IND NFL 2021 17 17 332 1811
5.45 18 106.5 2 Adrian Peterson 27 1-7 MIN NFL 2012 16 16 348 2097 6.03 12 131.1
3 Chris Johnson 24 1-24 TEN NFL 2009 16 16 358 2006 5.60 14 125.4 4 Frank Gore
23 3-65 SFO NFL 2006 16 16 312 1695 5.43 8 105.9 5 Barry Sanders* 29 1-3 DET NFL
1997 16 16 335 2053 6.13 11 128.3 6 Barry Sanders* 26 1-3 DET NFL 1994 16 16 331
1883 5.69 7 117.7 7 Eric Dickerson* 24 1-2 RAM NFL 1984 16 16 379 2105 5.55 14
131.6 8 Walter Payton* 23 1-4 CHI NFL 1977 14 14 339 1852 5.46 14 132.3 9 O.J.
Simpson* 28 1-1 BUF NFL 1975 14 14 329 1817 5.52 16 129.8 10 O.J. Simpson* 26
1-1 BUF NFL 1973 14 14 332 2003 6.03 12 143.1

Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used

 

He joined Jim Brown, Jim Taylor, O.J. Simpson, Walter Payton, and Clinton Portis
as the only players to average 100 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD per game while
having a YPC average of at least 5.4. But perhaps most remarkably, he won the
rushing crown by over 500 yards. If that sounds like a lot to you, it’s because
it is. The last time a player run the rushing crown by such a large margin was
Simpson back in his record-breaking 2,000 yard 1973 season. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Jonathan Taylor

{ 0 comments }


ADAM STEELE’S QUARTERBACK RECAP: WEEK 17

by Bryan Frye on January 5, 2022
in Passing, Quarterbacks, Stat Recap

The penultimate week of the season was an odd one from a statistical standpoint.
QBR and PFF mostly agreed (for once), but some of the boxscores straight up lied
to us about how well quarterbacks played. We saw 45 touchdown passes and 32 QB
turnovers, and that’s standard fare for a late season week in today’s NFL.
However, according to PFF graders, quarterbacks registered 36 big time throws
and a whopping 55 turnover worthy plays!

Let’s look at the week 17 rankings then take a closer look at some of these
misleading statlines: [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts, stat recap

{ 0 comments }


PASSING VALUE OVER AVERAGE IN 2021 BY DRAFT CLASS AND AGE

by Chase Stuart on January 5, 2022
in Draft, History, Quarterbacks, Statgeekery

Pick a QB, any QB: there are no right answers.

The 2018 NFL Draft was supposed to change the landscape of the NFL at the
quarterback position. Maybe not right away, of course, but in a few years — say,
2021? — the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft
would be the stars of the day. Instead, Josh Rosen flamed out immediately, Sam
Darnold proved to be underwhelming under three different coaches, and Baker
Mayfield’s stock fell dramatically in his fourth year. Even Lamar Jackson, the
2019 AP MVP, has fallen off; after a notable dropoff in play from 2019 to 2020,
he fell further in an injury-plagued 2021. At this point, only Josh Allen is an
unimpeachable franchise quarterback, but even he has seen a significant decline
in passing efficiency this season.



All told, the 2018 first round quarterbacks as a group have been decidedly below
average as passers this season, with three of the four starters (excluding
Rosen) being in the bottom five of the NFL in interception rate.

This made me curious: which draft classes have been the most productive in 2021?
With 17 weeks in the books — a traditional NFL regular season — here’s what I
did. [continue reading…]

{ 0 comments }


ADAM STEELE’S QUARTERBACK RECAP: WEEK 16

by Bryan Frye on December 29, 2021
in Passing, Quarterbacks, Stat Recap

I’m short on time right now so this week’s QB rankings will be presented without
commentary. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts, stat recap

{ 0 comments }


IS TREVON DIGGS HAVING THE TOP INT SEASON EVER?

by Chase Stuart on December 28, 2021
in Defensive Players, Statgeekery

Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs has  recorded 11 interceptions through 15 team
games this season. That’s already the most in the NFL by any player since 40
years ago, when another Dallas corner — Everson Walls — also had eleven picks. 
Last year, I wrote about Xavien Howard and J.C. Jackson, the two AFC East
cornerbacks who were doing something pretty remarkable. Both players had
absurdly high interception numbers given the context of the modern game, which
involves adjusting for era.

While teams throw more often now than they did throughout the history of the
game, the frequency of interceptions per pass attempt has dipped at an even more
severe rate than the quantity of pass attempts has risen. That’s why, despite
more passing, there are fewer interceptions per game in the modern era than
there has been at any other time since World War II. The graph below shows
interceptions per team game in the NFL from 1945 through week 16 of the 2021
season: [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Interceptions

{ 1 comment }


ADAM STEELE’S QUARTERBACK RECAP: WEEK 15

by Bryan Frye on December 23, 2021
in Passing, Quarterbacks, Stat Recap

Adam Steele is back to give us his thoughts on this week’s quarterbacks. It’s
been fun to follow his progression from hopeful fan to ranting madman over the
course of just fifteen weeks.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is starting to sound like a broken record but we just witnessed yet another
week of terrible quarterbacking. Only 9 of 32 qualifiers even cracked a QBR of
50! We can’t even blame this on backup QB’s dragging down the average as the
bottom 10 were all regular starters aside from Mike Glennon. If anything, the
backups outperformed the starters with Tyler Huntley taking the week 15 crown
and Nick Mullens placing eighth. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts, stat recap

{ 0 comments }


ADAM STEELE’S QUARTERBACK RECAP: WEEK 14

by Bryan Frye on December 15, 2021
in Passing, Quarterbacks, Stat Recap

Adam Steele is back with another quarterback recap. He has a broken arm and a
detached retina, and he’s ready to win it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This may have been the least interesting week of the 2021 season for overall
game quality (favorites were 12-2 with some totally noncompetitive matchups),
but it was still a fascinating slate for analyzing quarterback performance.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts, stat recap

{ 0 comments }

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