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Situation Report: The Race to Secure Syria’s Chemical Weapons
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THE RACE TO SECURE SYRIA’S CHEMICAL WEAPONS
THE SUDDEN COLLAPSE OF PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD’S REGIME HAS CREATED CONCERNS
ABOUT THE COUNTRY’S DANGEROUS ARSENAL.
By Amy Mackinnon, a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign
Policy, and John Haltiwanger, a reporter at Foreign Policy.
People sit across from a poster depicting then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
in a gas mask during an event in the rebel-held northern city of Afrin, Syria,
on Aug. 20, 2023. People sit across from a poster depicting then-Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad in a gas mask during an event in the rebel-held
northern city of Afrin, Syria, on Aug. 20, 2023. Rami al-Sayed/AFP via Getty
Images
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* Geopolitics
* United States
* Amy Mackinnon
* John Haltiwanger
December 19, 2024, 4:11 PM Comment icon View Comments (0)
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. Just a note that the
newsletter will be taking the next two weeks off for the holidays. We’ll return
on Jan. 9.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The race to secure Syria’s remaining
chemical weapons stockpiles after the fall of Assad, a top Russian military
official is assassinated in Moscow, and rising optimism for a cease-fire in
Gaza.
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. Just a note that the
newsletter will be taking the next two weeks off for the holidays. We’ll return
on Jan. 9.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The race to secure Syria’s remaining
chemical weapons stockpiles after the fall of Assad, a top Russian military
official is assassinated in Moscow, and rising optimism for a cease-fire in
Gaza.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEADLY WEAPONS
The sudden collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has sparked a
race to locate and secure Syria’s remaining chemical weapons stockpiles as the
fractured country, home to a number of armed factions and terror groups, seeks
to turn the page on years of war and authoritarian rule.
Once in possession of one of the largest stockpiles in the world, Syria signed
on to the Chemical Weapons Convention in 2013 in the face of growing
international pressure following the regime’s use of the deadly nerve agent
sarin in Eastern Ghouta, killing 1,400 people.
As a signatory, Assad agreed to work with the international community to
dismantle the country’s stockpiles, but the United States and the Organization
for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the convention’s implementing
body, have long suspected that Assad held some of the lethal weapons in reserve
and may have been working to develop new ones. The regime’s continued
procurement and use of chemical weapons throughout the civil war sharpened
concerns.
With Syria now under the control of a patchwork of groups led by the Islamist
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—which the United States and other countries consider
a terrorist organization—the United States is working to identify the country’s
remaining stockpiles, a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity told
SitRep.
The OPCW also held an emergency meeting on Thursday—its first in over five
years—to discuss the situation in Syria.
“The political and security situation in the country remains volatile. It may
have an impact on the status of chemical weapons related sites and pose
proliferation risks,” said OPCW Director-General Fernando Arias at the meeting’s
opening. “Such concerns include not only residual elements but also potential
new components of a chemical weapons program and also the chlorine program,” he
said.
A lingering arsenal. Syrian rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known by his nom
de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, told Reuters last Wednesday that his group,
HTS, was working with the international community to secure potential chemical
weapons sites.
At its peak, Syria was thought to have one of the largest arsenals of chemical
weapons in the world, and researchers have logged hundreds of incidents of the
Assad regime using chlorine, sarin, and mustard gas since the civil war erupted
in 2011.
The OPCW is urging Syria to declare not only the sarin it possesses but also any
chlorine “that is not intended for purposes not prohibited” under the Chemical
Weapons Convention.
READ MORE
Syrians pose for a picture on a destroyed tank in the Syrian capital of Damascus
on Dec. 12.
YOUR SYRIA QUESTIONS, ANSWERED
What Bashar al-Assad’s fall means for Syria, the Middle East, and beyond.
Situation Report
|
Amy Mackinnon, John Haltiwanger
Members of the media stand with cameras and other equipment.
NETANYAHU’S WAR ON THE ISRAELI MEDIA
He’s targeting news outlets even as he testifies in his own corruption trial.
Analysis
|
David E. Rosenberg
A man waves a Hezbollah flag as he drives past the rubble of a building in
Beirut’s southern suburbs as people returned to the area to check their homes
after the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect on Nov. 27.
CAN THE ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CEASE-FIRE HOLD?
Lebanese American academic Fawaz Gerges on Netanyahu’s long-term strategy and
Washington’s role.
Insider
|
Ravi Agrawal
The prospect of Syria’s remaining chemical weapons being seized by the remnants
of the Islamic State operating in the country is a chilling one and one of many
reasons the international community is rushing to locate the leftover
stockpiles. Islamic State militants were believed to have used crude chemical
weapons dozens of times in Iraq and Syria, although their capabilities are
limited.
However, Syria’s chemical weapons capabilities are likely stored in former
regime-held territory in the west of the country, far from the residual pockets
of the Islamic State.
Of greater concern is the prospect of former regime officials and scientists
accessing the weapons in the event of a civil war or organized Alawite
insurgency, said Gregory Koblentz, an associate professor at George Mason
University and expert on chemical and biological weapons, referring to the sect
from which the Assad family originated. “That’s a bigger concern for me than the
Islamic State,” he said.
Israeli action. Israel is also worried about terror groups gaining access to the
weapons and has not wasted time taking steps to neutralize the remaining
stockpiles. “We’re concerned,” Ofir Akunis, consul general of Israel in New
York, told SitRep. “That’s the reason that we’re in the buffer zone,” Akunis
added, referring to the Israeli military’s presence in a U.N.-designated buffer
zone inside Syria alongside the Golan Heights.
“We have a lot of intelligence,” Akunis said when asked if Israel knows the
locations of the remaining stockpiles. “We will do whatever is necessary to
defend our people.”
The Israeli military has already conducted airstrikes on suspected chemical
weapons sites since the Assad regime collapsed, which is part of a broader
campaign targeting remaining military assets.
Arias last week expressed concern over the Israeli strikes, warning that they
“could create a risk of contamination” and potentially impede various
international investigations into the past use of chemical weapons. When asked
about these concerns, Akunis said that Israel “will continue to do whatever is
necessary until we’re sure that there is no danger.”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LET’S GET PERSONNEL
The latest Trump nominations:
* Bill White, ambassador to Belgium
* Ric Grenell, envoy for special missions
* George Edward Glass, ambassador to Japan
* Lou Rinaldi, ambassador to Uruguay
* Stacey Feinberg, ambassador to Luxembourg
* Arthur Graham Fisher, ambassador to Austria
* Leah Francis Campos, ambassador the Dominican Republic
* Herschel Walker, ambassador to the Bahamas
* Edward Sharp Walsh, ambassador to Ireland
* Devin Nunes, chairman of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board
* Troy Edgar, deputy secretary of Homeland Security
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ON THE BUTTON
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Russian military leader assassinated. Unnamed Ukrainian security officials
claimed responsibility for an explosion on a Moscow street on Tuesday that
killed Russian Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, the head of the country’s nuclear and
chemical weapons protection forces. Kirillov and an aide were killed when a
device planted in a scooter was remotely detonated outside of a residential
building.
The attack was one of the most high-profile and brazen assassinations Ukraine is
believed to have carried out since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
almost three years ago. The day before Kirillov’s death, Ukraine’s security
services charged the military official in absentia for ordering the use of
chemical weapons against Kyiv’s forces.
Gaza cease-fire “possible.” There’s growing optimism that a cease-fire is on the
horizon in Gaza that would see some or all of the remaining hostages Hamas is
holding in the enclave released. “At this moment, we are very close to a new
hostage deal,” Ofir Akunis, consul general of Israel in New York, told SitRep on
Wednesday. But Akunis cautioned that there are still many details to iron out.
The recent truce between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, coupled with other
factors such as the fall of Assad in Syria, has seemingly led Hamas to shift its
stance in the negotiations. Hamas on Tuesday said an agreement is “possible,”
calling talks in Qatar to secure a deal “serious and positive.”
“Hamas is at a point where the cavalry it thought might come to the rescue isn’t
coming to the rescue. Hezbollah, not coming to the rescue. Iran, not coming to
the rescue,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe
on Thursday. “In the absence of that, I think the pressure is on Hamas to
finally get to yes.”
Senate passes defense spending package. The Senate on Wednesday passed an $895
billion defense policy bill, despite opposition from Democratic lawmakers over a
provision in the legislation that bans the military’s health care service from
covering gender-affirming care for the minor children of U.S. service members.
The bill passed in a vote of 85 to 14. The annual legislation, known as the
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), now heads to President Joe Biden’s
desk, where he’s expected to sign it.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Tuesday said the NDAA, which includes a
14.5 percent pay raise for junior enlisted service members, was “not perfect”
but “nonetheless has some very good things that Democrats fought hard for that
will strengthen military families and boost tech innovation here at home.”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNAPSHOT
Runners dressed as Santa Claus take part in the “Santa Run” Christmas race in
Mexico City on Dec. 15.
Runners dressed as Santa Claus take part in the “Santa Run” Christmas race in
Mexico City on Dec. 15. Yuri Cortez/AFP via Getty Images
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHAT WE’RE READING
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was released from a Russian
prison earlier this year in a historic East-West prison swap, continued to
report from behind bars during his 16- month incarceration on bogus charges of
espionage. This week, Gershkovich and colleagues at the journal published a
sprawling report on Russia’s Department of Counterintelligence Operations, a
previously little-known elite spy unit that has been at the forefront of a wave
of repression in Russia, including the arrests of American citizens.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PUT ON YOUR RADAR
Thursday, Dec. 19, to Friday, Dec. 20: The European Council leaders’ summit
convenes.
Sunday, Dec. 29: Croatia holds a presidential election.
Georgia’s new president is due to be sworn in.
Wednesday, Jan. 1: Brazil takes over the presidency of the BRICS group.
Poland assumes the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.
Canada assumes the presidency of the G-7.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“I will stay as a registered Republican but will not sit on committees or
participate in the caucus until I see that Republican leadership in Congress is
governing. I do not need to be involved in circuses. I would rather spend more
of my time helping @DOGE and @RepThomasMassie to save our Republic, as was
mandated by the American people.”
—Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana, posting on X about her decision to
opt out of participation in the House Republican Conference and congressional
committees in her forthcoming term. Spartz signaled that she’ll prioritize
helping President-elect Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, or
DOGE, which is not an official department of the federal government.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FP’S MOST READ THIS WEEK
* How Post-Assad Syria Could Unleash a New Regional Order by Galip Dalay
* Start by Keeping Ukraine Out of Ceasefire Talks by Anatol Lieven
* Is the U.S. Answer to China’s Belt and Road Working? by Lili Pike and
Christina Lu
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT
Tom Cruise is now officially a decorated hero. This week, the U.S. Navy gave the
American movie star the Distinguished Public Service Award—the service’s highest
civilian honor—for his “outstanding contributions to the Navy and the Marine
Corps” through films including 1986’s Top Gun and its 2022 sequel, Top Gun:
Maverick, in which Cruise played a hotshot naval fighter pilot.
The Navy said Cruise had “increased public awareness and appreciation for our
highly trained personnel and the sacrifices they make while in uniform,”
Military Times reported. No word on whether Goose is up for a posthumous award,
though.
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for FP subscribers. Subscribe Now | Log In
* Geopolitics
* United States
* Amy Mackinnon
* John Haltiwanger
Amy Mackinnon is a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign
Policy. X: @ak_mack
John Haltiwanger is a reporter at Foreign Policy. X: @jchaltiwanger
Read More On Chemical Weapons | Geopolitics | Islamic State | Israel | Syria |
United States
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