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1. Spartans
WIN OVER ILLINOIS BOOSTS MICHIGAN STATE’S NCAA TOURNAMENT CASE
* Published: Feb. 12, 2024, 6:03 a.m.
Michigan State Spartans forward Malik Hall (25) goes up for a shot against
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Justin Harmon (4), forward Coleman Hawkins (33)
and forward Quincy Guerrier (13), at the Breslin Center in East Lansing on
Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024.Cory Morse | cmorse1@mlive.com
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* Kyle Austin | kyleaustin2@mlive.com
EAST LANSING – If Michigan State wants to spend its late February and early
March off of the NCAA Tournament bubble and avoid sweating out Selection Sunday,
it did itself a favor on Saturday afternoon.
The Spartans’ win over No. 10 Illinois gave a significant boost to Michigan
State’s NCAA Tournament resume just as its situation had started to get
precarious.
That’s a fact that Spartans players were fully aware of.
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“In my mind, we’re going to the NCAA Tournament every year,” Spartans forward
Malik Hall said. “I’m not going to be the person that doesn’t go. I don’t want
to be that person. This was definitely an important win. We needed another big
win I feel like for our resume just to give us a little more oomph.”
Saturday’s win is now the second-best on Michigan State’s tournament resume,
behind only its December neutral-site win over Baylor. The Bears are ranked No.
13 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, while Illinois is ranked No. 14.
Entering Saturday’s game, opinions varied widely on the Spartans and their NCAA
Tournament resume. ESPN had the Spartans projected as a No. 8 seed, while CBS
had the Spartans out of the field altogether. Other projections had Michigan
State pegged everywhere in between.
The wide range of those projections points to the up-and-down nature of Michigan
State’s resume.
On the positive: the Spartans continue to have strong predictive metrics;
they’re ranked No. 16 in Kenpom and No. 17 in BPI, indicating a team that’s
played better than its record. They’re also No. 23 in the NCAA’s NET metric and
don’t have any bad losses (widely considered those outside of the first two
quadrants) while playing a difficult schedule.
The negatives: resume metrics, which measure a team’s accomplishments to date,
are lagging: Michigan State is ranked No. 41 in Strength of Record and No. 35 in
KPI, bubble team territory. Their nine losses are the most of any team in the
top 40 of the NET and they have just three wins over teams currently projected
to be in the NCAA Tournament.
Tom Izzo knows that those factors put his team’s position in the NCAA Tournament
precarious entering Saturday. So after Michigan State lost a nine-point
second-half lead and fell at Minnesota on Tuesday, Izzo brought up the situation
with his team and ensured they knew that making the NCAA Tournament is not a
given.
“They just think they think they’re at Michigan State it’s in the cards that
you’re in the tournament,” Izzo said. “We had some meetings on that.”
The good news for Michigan State is that the rest of the season schedule sets up
well to rack up enough wins to keep bubble talk at bay. Kenpom has the Spartans
favored in all seven of their remaining games, save for their March 2 trip to
Purdue. That would mean entering the Big Ten tournament with more than 20 wins.
But while Saturday’s win provided a boost for the Spartans, Izzo knows his team
will need to continue an upward trajectory to pick up those projected wins and
solidify the program’s 25-year NCAA Tournament streak.
“We got to maintain it and keep getting better,” Izzo said. “We won 10 out of 13
going into Minnesota, now we’re 11 of the last 14, in this league that’s not
bad.”
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