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Home Media Press Releases World Meteorological Organization declares onset of El
Niño conditions
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION DECLARES ONSET OF EL NIÑO CONDITIONS
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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION DECLARES ONSET OF EL NIÑO CONDITIONS
Tags:
El Niño / La Niña
4
PUBLISHED
4 July 2023
Press Release Number:
04072023
El Niño develops in tropical Pacific
It will likely fuel further global temperature increase
El Niño affects weather and storm patterns in different parts of the world
Early warnings and early action to save lives and livelihoods
Geneva 4 July 2023 (WMO) _ El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical
Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely surge
in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns.
A new Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that
there is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second
half of 2023. It is expected to be at least of moderate strength. The WMO Update
combines forecasts and expert guidance from around the world.
“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking
temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world
and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the
world to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our
ecosystems and our economies,” he said. “Early warnings and anticipatory action
of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are
vital to save lives and livelihoods.”
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last
nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with
warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean. But it takes place in the context of a climate changed by human
activities.
In anticipation of the El Niño event, a WMO report released in May predicted
that there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of next five years, and the
five-year period as a whole, will be warmest on record, beating the record set
in 2016 when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
The WMO report in May, led by the UK’s Met Office with partners around the
world, also said there is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface
global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will temporarily be more than 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
“This is not to say that in the next five years we would exceed the 1.5°C level
specified in the Paris Agreement because that agreement refers to long-term
warming over many years. However, it is yet another wake up call, or an early
warning, that we are not yet going in the right direction to limit the warming
to within the targets set in Paris in 2015 designed to substantially reduce the
impacts of climate change” said WMO Director of Climate Services Prof. Chris
Hewitt.
According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year
on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and
human-induced warming from greenhouse gases. The effect on global temperatures
usually plays out in the year after its development and so will likely be most
apparent in 2024.
The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15 °C above the 1850-1900
average because of the cooling triple-dip La Niña.
Typical impacts
El Niño events are typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of
southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and
central Asia.
In contrast, El Niño can also cause severe droughts over Australia, Indonesia,
parts of southern Asia, Central America and northern South America
During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the
central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it could hinder hurricane formation in the
Atlantic Basin.
Generally, El Niño has the opposite effect of the recent La Niña, which ended
earlier in 2023.
Current situation and outlook
Since February 2023, monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the
central-eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly, rising from nearly
half degree Celsius below average (-0.44 in February, 2023) to around half
degree Celsius above average (+0.47 in May, 2023). In the week centered on June
14, 2023, the warm sea surface temperature anomalies have continued to increase,
reaching a value of +0.9 degrees Celsius.
The collective evidence from both oceanic and atmospheric observations strongly
points towards the presence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. However, some
uncertainty remains because of only weak ocean-atmosphere coupling, which is
crucial for the amplification and sustenance of El Niño. It is anticipated that
it will take approximately another month or so to witness a fully established
coupling in the tropical Pacific.
Global Seasonal Climate Update
El Niño and La Niña are major – but not the only - drivers of the Earth’s
climate system.
In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now also issues
regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of
the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the
Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
“As warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are generally predicted over
oceanic regions, they contribute to widespread prediction of above-normal
temperatures over land areas. Without exception, positive temperature anomalies
are expected over all land areas in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere,” says
the latest update for July, August and September 2023.
Predictions for rainfall in the forthcoming three months are similar to some of
the canonical rainfall impacts of El Niño.
The WMO ENSO and Global Seasonal Climate Updates are based on forecasts from WMO
Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and are available to support
governments, the United Nations, decision-makers and stakeholders in climate
sensitive sectors to mobilize preparations and protect lives and livelihoods.
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor
the evolution of El Niño conditions and the associated impacts on temperature
and precipitation at national and local level. WMO will provide updated
outlooks during the coming months as needed.
Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the
season July-September 2023. The baseline period is 1993–2009
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s
authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water
For further information contact: Clare Nullis, WMO media officer,
cnullis@wmo.int. Tel 41-79-709 13 97
Notes for Editors: A technical brief from the WMO-WHO Joint Office on Climate
and Health on the Health Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation is available
here
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