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NEARSHORING LEADS TO INBOUND BOOST FROM MEXICO, CANADA - MULTICHANNEL MERCHANT


NEARSHORING LEADS TO INBOUND BOOST FROM MEXICO, CANADA

Mike O'Brien
June 21, 2023

Mexico and Canada are seeing an increase in manufacturing and shipping to the
U.S. as nearshoring takes hold in the face of uncertainty over trade with China
and more businesses adopt a “plus one” strategy regarding the country’s largest
trading partner, maintaining their base while diversifying their sourcing
strategy.

According to a joint supply chain stability index from management consulting
firm KPMG and the Association of Supply Chain Management (ASCM), nearshoring
meant the volume of imported freight from Mexico to the U.S. in Q1 exceeded that
of China by 15%. The volume from Canada was 5% higher as “China plus one” takes
a firm hold.





Also, ocean freight prices decreased by 10% in Q1, the companies reported in the
index, as inbound container freight from Asia dropped 27% and air freight was
down 50%.

“We see evidence in ongoing announcements of increased investments in Mexico,”
said Douglas Kent, EVP of corporate and strategic alliances for ASCM. “There are
other beneficiaries of the shift in global demand, including countries in
Southeast Asia. But for the U.S., Mexico is the largest recipient of volume from
the China plus one strategy.”

Kent said this nearshoring-driven shift of inbound volume from Mexico could
cause other issues in terms of insufficient trucking capacity, exacerbated by
the driver shortage. “The entire ecosystem has to work,” Kent said. “You might
solve one problem and create another. Do we have enough capacity in road volume
for shipments coming up from Mexico?”

On the inventory side, the index found that unfilled manufacturing orders grew
by 8% in Q1, indicating a return to the pre-pandemic range for adherence to
manufacturing schedules. “The wholesale inventory-to-shipment ratio is also near
pre-pandemic levels, while the retail ratio is progressing in the same
direction,” the report stated.

Many retailers have been working furiously to reduce inventory overstock levels,
with some shifting to a just-in-time model vs. a just-in-case approach that led
to the glut when supply chain reliability could not be counted on, the companies
found.

Most retailers were hurt hard enough by the “bullwhip effect” of inventory
oversupply that they won’t repeat the same mistake, Kent said.

“When there’s high volatility, the normal response is to de-risk by putting in
more inventory,” Kent said. “Now companies are taking a more thoughtful
approach, not letting the pendulum swing back too far the other way. It’s not a
complete return to just in time, but we see companies making better investments
in building capacity by using analytics for inventory strategy.”

Kent said this means companies are reconsidering the structure of their
networks, including sourcing, distribution and warehousing. “They’re building
out scenarios to determine the impact of (supply chain volatility). These
scenarios look at the most optimized network, relative to service levels
expected from buyers.”

The KPMG/ASCM index, which was created in September, takes into account 25
different variables from public sources, using a machine learning model from
KPMG to determine their impact on supply chain volatility. Variables include
reporting on inventory levels in manufacturing, wholesale and retail, as well as
freight demand and costs and the volume of unfulfilled manufacturing orders.

RELATED TAGS: inventory management, Logistics, Shipping, Supply chain

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