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OPINION

THE SUPREME COURT DID TRUMP NO FAVORS. HE’LL BE FACING A FALL TRIAL.

By Jennifer Rubin
Columnist|
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March 5, 2024 at 7:45 a.m. EST

Special counsel Jack Smith makes a statement on June 9, 2023, in D.C (Tom
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While leaving him on the ballot in the 14th Amendment case (but refusing to rule
out that Jan. 6, 2021, was an “insurrection”), the Supreme Court has taken every
opportunity to delay four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump’s Jan. 6
trial.


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In late December, the court declined to consider the absolute immunity claim,
preferring to wait for the ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C.
Circuit. After the appellate decision, the high court was not obliged to take
the case. It could have affirmed summarily. Nevertheless, after nearly two
weeks, the court decided it did need to take the case. Then it set the hearing
for April 22. Trump’s team undoubtedly celebrated the latest delay. But should
it?



As a preliminary matter, the Justice Department has clarified that its guideline
to refrain from initiating indictments or investigations about 60 days before an
election is inapplicable to pending cases that a court schedules during that
time frame. Cases that are ready to go can start regardless of the campaign
calendar.

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The Jan. 6 case likely will start before the election.

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The Supreme Court could — as it did in Watergate, emergency cases involving the
coronavirus or Bush v. Gore — move promptly and decide the immunity case within
a few weeks of the hearing. Norman L. Eisen, Matthew A. Seligman and Joshua Kolb
at Just Security explained: “For example, in U.S. v. Nixon, the Court held oral
argument on July 8, 1974 and issued its decision on July 24, 1974 — an interval
of three weeks. If the Court were to follow that example here, we would receive
a decision around Tuesday, May 13.” (In the 14th Amendment case, the opinion
came in slightly less than a month after oral arguments.) Arguably, any further
delay would look hyperpartisan even for this court.

With a May ruling, Judge Tanya S. Chutkan could stick to her schedule (i.e.,
each day lost since the December stay gets added back to the schedule, and the
trial could start on Aug. 2. The trial would run through the campaign’s final
months. Trump, rather than campaigning in the last months of the campaign, would
be sitting (pouting, if his previous courtroom demeanor is predictive) in court.
During the fall, daily testimony concerning his 2020-2021 coup attempt would be
front and center. As Eisen, Seligman and Kolb calculated, “If the trial starts
on Aug. 2 and lasts eight weeks it will be submitted to the jury on Sept. 27;
and if the trial lasts 12 weeks, it will be submitted to the jury on Oct. 25.”

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That schedule is Trump’s worst nightmare. Then-FBI Director James B. Comey
claimed 11 days before the 2016 election that “new” documents had turned up
concerning former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee
Hillary Clinton’s emails. That threw a monkey wrench into the campaign, arguably
costing her the election. Here, an October guilty verdict — even if appealed —
would be curtains for the MAGA crowd.



What if the court’s decision requires further fact-finding to apply its holding
(e.g., “Does the indictment involve official acts?”)? If Chutkan needs to hear
evidence outlining his complicity in the coup, voters would still get an earful
about Trump’s betrayal of the Constitution. If Chutkan instead could rule on the
indictment’s allegation, not much time would be lost.

Alternatively, Just Security’s authors calculated a trial start date around
Sept. 20 if the Supreme Court slow-walks a ruling on the immunity claim until
the end of June, the session’s traditional endpoint. A verdict would be nearly
impossible before the election, but the campaign’s close would be consumed with
testimony about Trump’s alleged involvement in the coup. That would be nearly as
devastating as a verdict.

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Four other considerations:

First, any prospect of starting the Jan. 6 trial before the election evaporates
if the Supreme Court’s ruling leaves application of immunity to this case less
than airtight. After Chutkan rules, Trump then might take another interlocutory
appeal, effectively foreclosing any pre-election trial.

Second, however, no serious lawyer thinks the court would agree that Trump
enjoys absolute immunity for alleged crimes in office. Even a court this
partisan would not countenance immunity for assassinating political enemies, as
the D.C. Circuit postulated. Whatever the timing, therefore, the court almost
certainly would issue a stark rebuke to Trump’s fantasy of absolute immunity.
Voters would still have the benefit of the court’s rejection of his view of the
presidency as dangerous and unconstitutional, infuriating Trump and giving
President Biden a powerful closing message.

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Third, the Jan. 6 trial delays have opened up the calendar. New York’s
hush-money trial is scheduled to get underway March 25, with a likely May
verdict. Disregard pundits’ sneering: The facts and the law strongly favor
prosecutors. A conviction (maybe with an embarrassing cross-examination if Trump
insists on testifying) surely would be a blow to Trump. “The first former
president convicted of a felony!” would dominate the news, as would discussion
about whether to incarcerate him.

It is also possible, although unlikely, given Judge Aileen M. Cannon’s
slow-walking, that the Jan. 6 delays would allow the trial for Trump’s alleged
mishandling of classified documents to begin, if not finish, before the
election. (Special counsel Jack Smith wants to start the case in July; Trump’s
lawyers counteroffered August.) A trial highlighting Trump’s disdain for
national security and alleged obstruction of justice would easily monopolize
fall campaign coverage.

Fourth, beginning but not completing the Jan. 6 and/or classified documents
trials before the election would have a silver lining: The prosecution could
present devastating evidence without the risk of losing before voters cast
ballots.

Any not-guilty verdict would give Trump an enormous boost, vindicating his
persecution claim. But despite the slothlike pace of the Supreme Court, through
much of the fall, Trump likely will be off the trail and on trial — as voters
get nonstop reminders about his contempt for the law.

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