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ELO PREDICTS

Predictions of AFL and A-League games, using Elo ratings and score prediction
models.

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 * Home
 * AFL
 * A-League
 * NBL
 * Boundary Rider - a Discord bot
 * What are Elo ratings?

 * Home
 * AFL
 * A-League
 * NBL
 * Boundary Rider - a Discord bot
 * What are Elo ratings?


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WINNERS AND LOSERS 10 - 16 AUGUST

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- August 17, 2020
 AFL Melbourne on the rise Melbourne has a change of +53 rating points in the
last 14 days. Granted their opposition hasn't been outstanding, playing the
bottom two teams before their most recent match, but that is a big gain. Will
Adelaide win a game? Adelaide has a change of -29 (worst in the league) in the
last fortnight, and is down -122 from the end of last season (also worst in the
league). For comparison, the second biggest change from the end of last year is
Hawthorn (-43).  A-League Are Sydney FC slipping? With a change of -24 rating
points over the last two weeks it might be a reasonable assumption to make.
However, Sydney's rating of 1618 is well above any other team this season, with
the next closest being Melbourne City on 1545. But, Sydney has only added 9
points to their end of season rating from the 2018-19 season. Western United
have had a great first season Ok that probably is fairly obvious just based on
their ladder position, but starting from a rating of 13
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THE WEEK IN REVIEW (8-14 APRIL)

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- April 16, 2019
AFL Some very average games this weekend in terms of skills, but some very close
games also. There is no doubt that the 6-6-6 rule has had an impact on gameplay,
perhaps bigger than anyone anticipated. Rating changes this week were quite
small in comparison to the previous three rounds, which is an indication that
team ratings across the league are a better representation of team strength.
There are still only two teams with a rating of 1600 or more. If they lose to
the Bulldogs (1457), Carlton's (1303) rating will drop under 1300 for the first
time this season. A-League The top 6 is now set, with really only the lower
positions that could change. Sydney FC (1628) are a 93% chance to finish in the
top 2, while Perth Glory (1613) will get a week off. Both these teams play each
other in the next round, which should be a fascinating game to watch.
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THE WEEK IN REVIEW (1-7 APRIL)

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- April 08, 2019
AFL A better week this week, 5 correct. The expectation is that the model will
correct itself, coming back to the average accuracy of around 68%. There has
been a big shift in the ratings of a few teams. Let's start with the positive
stories first! Brisbane leads the way with a net gain of +43, followed by
Geelong (+33) and Fremantle (+29). Brisbane was predicted to miss the 8 at the
start of the season, but now they are a small chance to make it. Geelong's
rating tipped over 1600 for the first time in a while, and they are now ranked
1st by rating. West Coast (1603) is only just behind them but they have a net
gain of only +2 this season. On the other side, the biggest story at the moment
is Melbourne who has a net loss of -42 this season. This is second only behind
North Melbourne (-44). The other big loser is Richmond (-32), who played one bad
game and missed out on the Grand Final last year now find themselves slipping.
Their current rating of 1579 is the 5th best in
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Elo
Elo ratings were originally developed to rank chess players, but have been
proven to be a very good way to predict the outcome of sporting matches. This
site uses Elo ratings to predict the outcome of AFL, BBL, NBL and A-League
games. It also uses a scoring model based on Poisson distribution to calculate
an expected score.

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