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 1. Home
 2. Retirement
 3. Best New Ideas in Retirement


BEST NEW IDEAS IN RETIREMENT




A RETIREMENT SAFE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE? ASK THE TOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT REAL ESTATE
AND PROPERTY INSURANCE

Last Updated: Sept. 27, 2022 at 4:45 p.m. ET First Published: May 31, 2022 at
6:44 a.m. ET
By

RACHEL KONING BEALS

  comments


CLIMATE CHANGE IS TESTING HOW MUCH CONTROL BOOMERS AND GENERATION X WILL HAVE
OVER THEIR RETIREMENT. SAFE AND ACTIVE POST-CAREER LIVING DEMANDS CLEAR-EYED
PLANNING — AND GETTING MORE ANSWERS FROM REAL ESTATE AND INSURANCE
PROFESSIONALS.


Illustration by Mark Long
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The images were shocking: tidy rows of suburban houses ablaze as a wildfire
ripped across the open prairie now populated by fast-growing Louisville, Colo.,
whose 20,000 residents are nestled perfectly between desirable Boulder and
Denver. Some 1,000 homes were a total loss and tens of thousands of residents
fled the deadly December fire that flared up unusually late in the season,
kindled by a multiyear drought.

Earlier in 2021, days-long media coverage darkened with dwindling hope for
survivors in a crumbled condominium tower in Surfside, Fla., just north of
Miami. A confluence of factors was believed to be at the root of the collapse
that claimed 98 lives, many of retirement age: delayed maintenance, outmoded
code standards grandfathered in, plus the long-run effects of a higher water
table and corrosion from salt water.

For many, it was a wake-up call that a densely developed south Florida — as well
as Tampa and nearby communities on the Gulf side — were going to see building
resilience tested over and over by global warming-linked coastal water rise.
Residents must also consider the increased likelihood of extreme downpours as
climate change intensifies typical weather incidents and expands their
seasonality. 


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Yet plenty of observers bristled at the climate-change connection in Surfside
because building factors and human error were present. It’s a reflection of how
challenging it can be to push real world solutions for an existential risk like
climate change. Who wants to think of a Floridian paradise, long a U.S.
retirement destination and international tourism draw, in deeper peril than the
standard hurricane watch?

The reality is, climate-change impact is already being felt. Natural disasters
aren’t new, but their frequency and staying power are intensifying. And key
sectors that factor into retirement considerations — real estate and insurance —
are lagging in their preparation for a new-normal.

With each passing tornado, flood or forest fire, it is becoming increasingly
clear that one of the best new ideas in retirement is protecting our homes from
climate change. It will be costly, both financially and politically, and will
need to include a sea change when it comes to how the insurance industry
operates in a world in which 100-year weather events are happening every five
years, and all over the country.



“This is one of the major systemic issues today: climate change is not being
priced into housing,” said Raj Dosaj, head of real estate for Cape Analytics,
which provides geospatial maps and property information. “In almost all areas
with growing risks, most homeowners can still get affordable property insurance
— in fact, many of these areas are naturally beautiful and, with the pandemic,
have seen even faster home-price appreciation than other areas.” 

Flexible work schedules during the height of COVID-19 pulled people out of
heavily-populated areas to work at their own vacation homes or Airbnb-type
rentals and workplace flexibility may be here to stay. Plus, what’s been billed
as the “Great Resignation” during the pandemic lured some 4.3 million Americans
from the workforce into retirement.

According to many experts, climate change poses a potentially dangerous future
in some locations even if a warming atmosphere can be slowed by global efforts
to swap high-emission oil and gas for solar, wind, hydrogen and nuclear power,
and by incentives to eventually designate all gasoline-powered cars for scrap
metal and replace them with electric vehicles, electric bicycles and improved
public transportation. Some of the warming effects just can’t be reversed.

MEMBERS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA URBAN SEARCH AND RESCUE TEAM LOOK FOR POSSIBLE
SURVIVORS IN THE PARTIALLY COLLAPSED 12-STORY CHAMPLAIN TOWERS SOUTH CONDO
BUILDING IN SURFSIDE, FLA., IN JUNE 2021.

AFP via Getty Images

The good news is Americans can still imagine a scenic, active and secure
retirement, but they need to factor climate change into their plans. Joseph
Coughlin, founder and director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
AgeLab, says that any message about climate-change preparedness has to empower
retirees. 



“It can’t be about washing away by the sea. It has to be: This is how you fight
back, take control, be better prepared. At a certain age, people want to hear
less about impending frailty than about how to maintain capability.
Climate-change adaptation should be no different,” said Coughlin. The AgeLab he
runs with graduate students examines aging and technology use by those aged
50-plus, which includes Generation X and boomers.


Advertisement

Prepared would-be retirees should be asking — and the service industries must be
able to answer — what type of housing will be safest from extreme weather, fire
and power outages? Can I be insured on a coast? In a flood zone? If I qualify,
can I afford that property insurance? What if I have to flee danger quickly? Can
I enjoy the outdoors most days of the year? Can the indoors be cooled without
breaking the bank?

BE INFORMED: WHAT DOES SCIENCE TELL US?

Every summer, from Miami to Cape Hatteras, N.C., people prepare for a possible
hurricane. Residents get ready to shelter in place behind hurricane-grade
windows or pack an overnight bag and crate up their pets to flee via a
designated route to safety. When big storms do hit, which they tend to do every
five to seven years, television broadcasters rapidly descend to cover the chaos
and damage. They usually find some displaced or impacted retirees to interview. 

“As NASA and other valuable agencies tell us, evidence is emerging linking
climate change to extreme weather, such as hurricanes and storms most assuredly
affecting favorite coastal warm-weather retirement destinations,” said AgeLab’s
Coughlin.

But it’s not just hurricane alley and all its press coverage that bear watching.
Rising waters are impacting retirement destinations favored by empty-nesting
urban downsizers on waterfronts as far north as New England, or even Nova
Scotia. 


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And looking inland, more than 13% of the U.S. population currently resides in
the 100-year flood plain. That number could rise to 15.8% by 2050 and 16.8% by
2100, according to a study largely critical of underreporting in current Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) mapping, addressed in a commentary by the
Yale School of the Environment.

If it’s not rising water that’s raising concerns, it certainly is an expanding
tinder box. A report by the United Nations Environment Program estimates that
with even moderate temperature increases, the number of extreme wildfires
globally will increase by as much as 30% by midcentury and 50% by 2100. 

Severe weather can also bring harm even if it doesn’t leave lasting property
damage. Government data analyzed by the Associated Press showed power outages
tied to severe weather rose from about 50 annually nationwide in the early 2000s
to more than 100 annually on average over the past five years, according to
electricity disturbance data submitted by utilities to the U.S. Department of
Energy. Blackouts can impact medical care at home, limit our ability to preserve
food and generally, spoil the ability to enjoy an active retirement. U.S. power
customers on average experienced more than eight hours of outages in 2020. And
creating your own power is a cost consideration; generators can run anywhere
from $4,000 to $20,000, said AgeLab’s Coughlin.

REAL ESTATE: BUYERS SHOULD ASK CLIMATE-CHANGE QUESTIONS

Forbes, one of many publications that issue ever-popular home-buying destination
lists, now factors climate risk into its annual roundup of 25 retirement dream
towns. But online search companies, such as Zillow, Redfin and Trulia, have been
slow to alert for flood risk or other potential red-flags on listings.
Realtor.com broke with that tendency, adding flood data in 2020 and wildfire
data, compiled by nonprofit First Street, this year.


Advertisement

The First Street/Realtor.com tool and accompanying report finds that as many as
20 million properties in the lower 48 states face “moderate” risk, or up to a 6%
chance of experiencing a wildfire over 30 years, essentially the life of the
most popular mortgage. And unlike the typically narrow one-year window used in
present-day insurance pricing, the wildfire tool assesses the risk to homes and
commercial buildings from damaging wildfires if they struck right now, and up to
30 years in the future.

ON THE LEFT, DARKENED AREAS SHOW INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES CURRENTLY. ON THE
RIGHT, EVEN DARKER AREAS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD, SHOW THE INCREASED ANNUAL
LIKELIHOOD OF WILDFIRE IN 30 YEARS.

First Street Foundation

Real estate agents, mortgage lenders and other professionals in the industry
believe buyers aren’t asking enough climate-change questions, especially if they
plan to stay in a property for years — and the industry isn’t feeling compelled
to disclose much either.


Advertisement

Risa Palm, professor of Urban Studies and Public Health at Georgia State
University, and her colleague in the political science department, Toby Bolsen,
wrote in a commentary of their efforts to log real estate dedication to
climate-change information. 

The duo surveyed 680 licensed Florida real estate agents in late 2020. Their
responses suggest that prospective home buyers are not routinely taking
elevation or flood vulnerability into account when searching for new homes, and
the availability of improved flood risk maps has had little or no impact on
them.

“Part of the problem may be that mortgage lenders and appraisers aren’t
accounting for properties’ vulnerability to sea level rise, so home buyers
aren’t immediately feeling the risk in their pocketbooks,” Palm and Bolsen say.
“Wealthier buyers who don’t need a mortgage [and make a cash purchase] aren’t
required to purchase flood insurance, and Congress has a history of rolling back
flood insurance rate increases.”

It’s true that many factors impact housing prices. Even though California
experienced five of the state’s six largest wildfires in state history in 2020,
overall housing demand meant that even devastated wildfire communities
experienced jumps in home prices, a phenomenon that some said only puts more
people in harm’s way since there’s little incentive to take preventive fire
measures.

A broader 2020 analysis from Realtor.com showed that home buyers were only
beginning to factor concerns about climate change into their decision-making. As
a result, homes in areas vulnerable to fires and floods could see weaker price
growth, but the discount wasn’t dramatic, economists at the trade group say.


Advertisement

For buyers, risk assessment may be abstract and overwhelming, which is why the
professionals need to be more reliable. 

“When it comes to location, the physical impacts are changing with climate
change, but they’re changing at different rates, in different directions, in
different places, that are not well understood by most people. Maybe Miami looks
better than Phoenix for your heat sensitivity. Maybe Dubai looks better than
either,” said Rich Sorkin, CEO of climate analytics provider Jupiter
Intelligence.

”The second factor when it comes to retirement and climate change is this
concept of duration mismatch … the information that people are looking at is the
wrong time horizon for the decision they’re making. It’s like looking at a
potential partner at 18 years old. And reassessing that partner at 48. Maybe not
such a great match,” he said.

Robert Heck, vice president of mortgage with Morty, an online mortgage
marketplace headquartered in California, agreed that the real estate industry is
a slow adapter to climate risks.

“We’ve yet to really see lenders barring certain areas of the country
specifically due to climate change from financing,” Heck said. “We see it in
some markets for homeowners insurance — I’m in Lake Tahoe in California and
we’ve lost a lot of policy underwriting due to drought and fire — and that can
circle back and impact mortgage approval, but it’s a bit indirect.“


Advertisement

“We try to help retired clients navigate all the ongoing costs — and climate
change factors should be in there — especially as homeowners will want to make
retirement savings stretch as long as possible,” Heck said. “Should they look at
a smaller home? Should they reconsider location? We want to walk them through
all of it.” 

INSURANCE: A RECKONING IN THE MAKING

Led by the deadly and costly Hurricane Ida in the U.S.and massive flooding in
Europe, the world racked up $329 billion in economic losses linked to severe
weather in 2021, and only 38% of that bill was covered by insurance.

Further, even when insurance can be counted on, its actuarial scope falls short
when it comes to climate change. Property insurance is based on one-year risk
calculations, looking back to the year just completed.The formula doesn’t work
well as a proxy for risk for longer-term assets, including homes, when the risk
has intensified to the degree that climate change presents.

“I believe that insurance is broken and you can quote me on that,” said
Jupiter’s Sorkin.

“Either the insurance industry writ large is going to evolve and start
accounting for these future risks,” he added. “Or, there will be a divergence:
One side will say we don’t believe the climate change you are describing is
‘material’ to us. Or, one side says, yes, it’s a big deal, but we don’t have
control over our own analytics and workflows. Either way, there are potential
cost issues for consumers — costs will go up.”

A WOMAN WALKS ALONG A FLOODED STREET CAUSED BY A KING TIDE IN MIAMI BEACH, FLA.
WHILE HIGHER SEAS CAUSE MUCH MORE DAMAGE WHEN STORMS SUCH AS HURRICANES HIT THE
COAST, IT DOESN’T ALWAYS REQUIRE A BIG STORM TO CREATE FLOODING. HIGH TIDES GET
LARGER AND WATER FLOWS FURTHER INLAND AND DEEPER EVEN ON SUNNY DAYS.

AP

Insurance evolution may be evident in some places, but typically at a shocking
price jump for consumers. That’s already happening in Florida, for instance,
where many traditional insurance names have pulled out, in part due to a flurry
of litigation to force insurers to pay more. But the exodus has reached a point
where some who regularly cover the sector venture to call it a “crisis.”


Advertisement

Instead, specialty insurers known as excess and surplus (E&S) carriers push into
these areas. They take on extra risk and often are licensed outside the state
where standard insurers have left. For consumers, that may mean the chance to
buy insurance when they otherwise could not, although at a higher cost, In some
ways, the specialty premium may help better assign risk to the most
disaster-prone areas. 

The industry is also trying to creatively solve for the unknown that comes with
climate change. 

Though it remains a small part of the market, parametric insurance has gathered
increasing interest. Unlike traditional casualty insurance that reimburses a
policyholder for the cost of damage incurred to property, parametric insurance
covers the probability of some event happening that is likely to cause an
economic loss. 

And perhaps the biggest change to date comes from the federal flood insurance
program, which is also attempting to update its flood-zone maps.

Flood damage is excluded from standard homeowner’s insurance policies, yet only
15% of American homeowners had a flood insurance policy as of 2018, according to
the Insurance Information Institute. 

What’s more, flood insurance is handled with a government program, not private
issuers, although with a few exceptions. 


Advertisement

The government program has faced its own changes — changes long in coming, say
experts. Saddled with more than $20 billion in debt from hurricane payouts, the
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program
raised premiums in 2020 by an average of 11.3%, and higher for properties in the
most flood-prone zones. With the increase came the first overhaul of the system
— called Risk Rating 2.0 — since the inception of the program in 1968.

THAT FINE PRINT MATTERS MORE THAN EVER

Homeowners face potential tests to the scope of their insurance coverage
already, and climate change will only add to the challenge, said Brian Patillo,
vice president of Goosehead Insurance, an independent brokerage which compares
several carriers to find the best fit for an individual policy-holder.

For instance, many homeowners, wary of premiums and deductibles when balancing
other household expenses, may have a policy that covers only up to a portion of
the replacement value of their home. Perhaps that amount was set based on
purchase price and what the insured person might be able to afford monthly. But
home values, material costs and construction labor may have risen since the home
was purchased: a policy that maxes out at $400,000 won’t cover the exact
rebuilding of a destroyed home that will now cost $550,000. This, in fact, was
the case when wildfire struck the popular Louisville, Colo., where rebuilding
prices had also jumped during a global materials supply shortage and a
post-COVID inflationary surge for many segments of the economy.

ALLISON PRICE DIGS THROUGH THE DEBRIS AT HER BOYFRIEND’S PARENTS’ HOUSE IN A
NEIGHBORHOOD DECIMATED BY THE MARSHALL FIRE IN LOUISVILLE, COLO. OFFICIALS
REPORTED THAT 991 HOMES WERE DESTROYED IN THE FIRE THAT SPARKED AROUND THE NEW
YEAR HOLIDAY, MAKING IT THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRE IN COLORADO HISTORY.

Getty Images

For Steve Bowen, a meteorologist and head of catastrophe insight at Aon, a
consulting firm for the insurance and reinsurance industry, climate change is
already widening the insured vs. uninsured or underinsured gap in the U.S. 


Advertisement

Surveys from the research firm Marshall & Swift/Boeckh have found about 60% of
homeowners nationwide are underinsured by approximately 17% of the cost of their
home. A quick number crunch reveals they would be short about $34,000 on the
average national home price of $200,000.

“If you have a career pension or 401(k), likely you’ll be able to handle more
robust insurance demands,” Bowen said. “But there is a non-negligible portion of
current retirees or those close to retirement age who simply don’t have enough
money to retire, yet alone have enough insurance in retirement. We saw that
after the fire in Paradise, California.”

It’s also true, he says, that where there are insurance shortcomings, there can
be a hit to property values. An adequately-insured home can make a claim against
individual damage. But if most dwellings on a street or in a neighborhood never
snap back from devastation, even the repaired homes’ potential resale values are
hit. Remember: location, location, location.

A MAN RIDES A BICYCLE THROUGH A FLOODED STREET AFTER HURRICANE ISAIAS BLEW
THROUGH POPULAR RETIREMENT DESTINATION MYRTLE BEACH, SOUTH CAROLINA, IN AUGUST
2020.

Getty Images

HOW ELSE CAN RETIREES PREPARE? 

Ask, don’t assume


Advertisement

As consumers gear up for retirement, they should reach out to their insurance
agent to confirm coverage for the natural disasters they may encounter in the
area they plan to settle down in. “For instance, damage from floods and
earthquakes is not typically covered on a homeowners policy, so working with an
independent agent to assess those risks and purchase the right coverage is
crucial for their successful retirement,” said Goosehead’s Patillo.

Consider renting, not buying right away

Renting may allow you to not only get a feel for your retirement selection, but
to get a handle on the managing of your finances and whether added property
insurance costs are necessary and will be worth it.

The data is there, and improving

Companies like Cape and Jupiter and others are helping communities understand
and adapt to the changing climate front. You can look up select data yourself,
including FEMA’s new map for natural hazards. Insurer The Hartford and MIT’s
AgeLab collaborated on an awareness campaign for seniors and disasters.

An emergency plan is vital


Advertisement

Protecting your property is one thing, saving your life is another. AgeLab’s
Coughlin warns that even the cities most ahead of planning for climate-related
disasters, and those in hurricane paths that already take such steps, aren’t
very good at ensuring their most vulnerable citizens, such as seniors with
mobility issues, can also flee to safety. Research and a plan for how you might
head to safer ground if necessary must factor in your preparedness for a safer
retirement.

Protect your property from day one

Can you take steps out of the gate to limit disaster? California, for instance,
has a statewide code for its wildland-urban interface areas that includes
details such as how far trees and shrubs should be kept away from homes, and
construction materials to use that can help protect homes within a fire hazard
zone. Not all states provide that guidance, though. Colorado lawmakers rejected
recommendations for a statewide code in 2014, leaving it up to each county. Ask
how your county or city handles these codes. There are International Code
Council and National Fire Protection Association wildland-urban interface fire
codes that can be adjusted to local conditions.

Most codes and the insurance industry suggest the roof of a home be made of
fire-resistive Class A materials, such as asphalt shingles or concrete tiles.
Walls are rated based on the duration of time they can withstand fire.
Researchers are also trying to commercialize exterior sprinklers that don’t
require electricity, large fire blankets that can cover a house and
fire-retardant foam that can be sprayed on structures.


Advertisement

As for severe wind, metal roofs — considered better able to withstand high gusts
— are increasingly in demand. Finally, if you’re in a flood zone, consider
moving utility equipment out of the basement to a spot above ground. 

Don’t forget about extreme heat 

Plan for more hot days if you opt for a region already featuring warm summers.
Previous extreme heat waves in Chicago, for example, proved deadly to older
residents in particular. The same can be said for the Pacific Northwest in
summer 2021, which led to an overflow of cooling centers for a region with
historically mild summers. 

For many places, air conditioning, once used only for a few days a year, is now
used for a few months and can be an unplanned retirement expense, said the
AgeLab’s Coughlin. Your air-conditioning unit may need to be replaced with a
more efficient model as average temperatures rise.

A battery-run power generator may be a must-have addition. Many people are
already taking action; spending on generators rose 36% between 2016 and 2019,
The Wall Street Journal reported.

Think resiliency now, not later

For Cape’s Dosaj, it could be too little, too late for retirees if they’re
scrambling to react to climate change rather than anticipating these risks. 

Foresight from the real estate, construction, planning and insurance industries,
alongside state and federal governments who have a role in protecting retirees,
is what’s needed, he says.

“I see risk mitigation — helping homeowners build less-vulnerable,
more-resilient structures to the hazards they may face — as the best way to keep
communities safer but also minimize the potential rising costs of buying,
selling and insuring a property,” said Dosaj.

“This is the best overall bet as it reduces risk across the system. Government
subsidies and programs to retrofit homes in high risk areas — like the federal
government is beginning to support in wildfire areas — may come increasingly
into play,” he said. “As these needs increase, it will be up to taxpayers to
support the move to a more resilient housing stock.”


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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rachel Koning Beals


Rachel Koning Beals is a MarketWatch news editor in Chicago.



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