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NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security
and foreign policy.




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ABOUT THE AUTHOR : MATT BERG

Matt Berg is the anchor of POLITICO’s National Security Daily newsletter, having
co-written it since October 2022. He primarily covers foreign policy, defense
and space, and worked as a breaking news reporter before moving full-time to the
national security team.

Before joining POLITICO in the summer of 2022, Matt was a stringer at The New
York Times and a correspondent at The Boston Globe. He got his start in local
media at the Daily Hampshire Gazette, The Republican and The Shoestring.

Matt graduated from UMass Amherst in 2022 and is a proud Western Massachusetts
native.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR : ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL

Eric Bazail-Eimil is a national security reporter and co-writer of POLITICO’s
“National Security Daily.” He joined POLITICO as one of the 2023-2024 fellows,
completing rotations on the breaking news, national security and energy desks
during his fellowship.

Before POLITICO, Eric was a politics reporting intern at The Wall Street
Journal, covering Capitol Hill. He also interned at NBC’s Meet the Press and
Reason Magazine. A proud Cuban American, Eric is a member of the National
Association of Hispanic Journalists.

Eric is a graduate of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, where
he focused on theology and African and Latin American politics. Originally from
South Florida, he speaks Spanish, French and Portuguese.


NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY - POLITICO ARCHIVE


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 * View the Full National Security Daily Archives »


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 5. ANGELA ALSOBROOKS WON A MESSY SENATE PRIMARY. NOW SHE TAKES ON LARRY HOGAN.




KENYAN FORCES ARE ABOUT TO LAND IN HAITI — WITH NOWHERE CLEAR TO STAY

By MATT BERG and ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL 

04/29/2024 04:03 PM EDT

Police patrol the Champ de Mars area of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on April 24,
2024. | Ramon Espinosa/AP

With help from Lara Seligman

Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric

Kenya is expected to begin deploying forces to Haiti in late May, and a
U.S.-constructed base won’t be ready for them, three people familiar with the
talks told NatSec Daily.

Now that Haiti has a transitional government in place, the U.S. believes some of
the Kenyan forces promised to help secure the embattled country and quell
violent gangs will start deploying by May 23, said JAKE JOHNSTON, an analyst at
the Center for Economic and Policy Research who often talks with government
officials and lawmakers. Two other people, granted anonymity to discuss private
discussions, confirmed the deployment date to NatSec Daily.

That would coincide with Kenyan President WILLIAM RUTO’s visit to Washington.
The deployment would likely be touted as a big win for the bilateral
relationship: The mission has been stalled for months due to legal battles in
Kenya and Republican lawmakers blocking funds for the deployment, since the
U.S.-supported plan offers few details on how the security forces will succeed
in their battle.

It’s expected to be a somewhat small group, up to 200 personnel, Johnston also
told NatSec Daily. And that number of forces is very unlikely to quell the
violent gangs wreaking havoc on Haiti.

When the first forces step foot in Haiti, they also might not have a place to
go. The Defense Department hasn’t finished construction on a facility in Haiti
that would house the security forces, Johnston and the others said.

The Pentagon pledged to build a base and medical facility, “but that has yet to
happen,” Johnston said. “Without the infrastructure, it’s unclear how any sort
of larger-scale deployment would be feasible.”

It’s unclear where else Kenyan forces would be housed. The National Security
Council, State Department and Defense Department did not respond to NatSec
Daily’s request for comment.

Due to the thorny history of U.S. intervention in Haiti, Washington has
struggled to devise a plan that would likely stabilize the country and allow for
free and fair elections to be held, while also satisfying Haitians who don’t
want foreign troops to contribute to the ongoing violence.

One of the main critiques of the U.S.-backed plan is it doesn’t explicitly say
Kenyan or Beninese forces can use force to quell the gangs if they need to. Even
so, the State Department says it should be expected that they will.

“That is not actively planned,” a U.N. official, granted anonymity to discuss
the administration’s thinking, told NatSec Daily. “But they do have the mandate
to do so, should they need it … to both protect themselves, but more
importantly, to protect civilians.”


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THE INBOX

PROBING ISRAEL’S ACTIONS: A group of lawyers is calling on President JOE BIDEN
to halt military aid to Israel, arguing that its actions in Gaza do not comply
with U.S. and international humanitarian law, our own JOSEPH GEDEON scoops.

The lawyers, including at least 20 that work in the Biden administration, plan
to send a letter arguing their case to Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND and
general counsels across the administration in the coming days. In the letter,
the lawyers contend that Israel likely violated U.S. statutes including the Arms
Export Control Act and Leahy Laws as well as the Geneva Conventions prohibiting
disproportionate attacks on civilian populations.

So far, more than 90 lawyers have signed onto the letter that’s still collecting
signatures. The dissent comes at a key moment: The White House faces a May 8
deadline to certify to Congress that Israel’s military actions involving
American-supplied weapons adhere to U.S. or international law, and the letter
could make it harder for the U.S. to prove that it hasn’t.

HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE: Israel is open to a deal that involves Hamas releasing 33
hostages during the first phase of a truce, fewer than it had previously
demanded, three Israeli officials told The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY and
ADAM RASGON.

For months, Israel wanted the militant group to release 40 hostages, a group
composed of women, elderly and seriously ill people. A reason for the change in
number is because Israel believes some of the 40 hostages have died, one of the
officials said.

It’s the strongest indication yet that Israel and Hamas may be inching toward a
ceasefire deal. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN spoke with Saudi Arabian
officials today about the potential deal, urging Hamas to agree to the
“extraordinarily generous” offer from Israel. His trip comes a day after Biden
and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU spoke on the phone for nearly an
hour.

Egyptian Foreign Minister SAMEH SHOUKRY said today that he’s “hopeful” about the
latest proposal: “The proposal has taken into account the positions of both
sides … we are waiting to have a final decision,” he said, per Reuters.

The latest bump in the road: The U.S. and its allies are concerned that the deal
could be complicated if the International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants
for Israeli officials, as Israel believes may happen, Bloomberg News’ JENNIFER
JACOBS, ALBERTO NARDELLI and ALEX WICKHAM report.

Negotiators are also hoping a deal comes before an Israeli invasion of the
southern Gaza city of Rafah, where some 1.4 million Palestinians are sheltering.
That took on renewed urgency today, as Israeli airstrikes on three houses killed
at least 25 Palestinians in the city, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI reports.

INDIA’S LONG ARM: India’s intelligence service pursued an assassination attempt
against a prominent Sikh activist and opponent of Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI
on American soil during his state visit last year, The Washington Post’s GREG
MILLER, GERRY SHIH and ELLEN NAKASHIMA report.

The plot came days after an earlier, successful, attempt to kill a Sikh
separatist leader living in Canada which caused a major diplomatic rift between
Ottawa and New Delhi over the Modi government’s involvement. It also came as the
White House rolled out the red carpet for the Indian leader that week with a
glamorous state visit. Washington has looked to shore up ties with India, which
it sees as a critical partner in Asia that can serve as a counterweight to
China’s rising military and economic prominence.

UKRAINE FALLS BACK: Ukraine retreated from three villages in Donetsk region amid
an intensifying Russian push in the region, refreshing concerns over how quickly
Western military assistance will get there.

Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said today that U.S. weapons began
arriving in small amounts, but urged Washington to move faster: “Timely support
for our army — today, I don’t see anything positive on this point yet. There are
supplies, they have slightly begun, this process needs to be sped up,” he said,
per Reuters’ PAVEL POLITYUK.

On Sunday, the head of Ukraine’s army, OLEKSANDR SYRSKYI, said that Kyiv’s
forces had “moved to new frontiers west of Berdychi, Semenivka and
Novomykhailivka to preserve the lives and health of our troops,” our own
VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Syrskyi cited Ukraine’s dwindling supplies, in the
face of the better-equipped Russian forces.

Speaking alongside Zelenskyy today, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said
the bloc’s members have failed to live up to their promises on sending aid,
emphasizing the ammunition shortage, to Ukraine. “But now I’m confident that
things will change,” Stoltenberg said.

ICYMI — Thousands of former Wagner fighters are now answering to Moscow by our
own ERIN BANCO

IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for
the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts
and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim
your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and
follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team:
@alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH,
@paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe,
and @JGedeon1.


THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more
than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy
and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the
election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO
Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro
platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries,
like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and
regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics
and policy journalists.

Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our
defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor
O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees
and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage
of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the
conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries,
providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and
policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.


ELECTION 2024

TRUMP’S 702 BATTLE: Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle believe DONALD TRUMP
could kill the U.S. spy powers bill if he takes office.

As our own JORDAIN CARNEY and JOHN SAKELLARIADIS report, conservatives hope that
in 2026, Trump will be back in the White House and kill the Section 702
government surveillance program. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON shortened the timeline for
reauthorization of the United States’ spy power bill from five to two years to
appease conservatives.

During the reauthorization debate, Trump came out swinging against the bill,
claiming it was used to spy on his presidential campaign. The shorter timeframe
“is certainly better, because we’ll get another whack at the kind of reforms
that we think we need to have,” House Judiciary Committee Chair Rep. JIM JORDAN
(R-Ohio) told our colleagues.

Connecticut Rep. JIM HIMES, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee,
acknowledged the potential pitfall of a two-year reauthorization. If Trump is
back in the White House and “decides that he doesn’t like the authority,” Himes
said, “then we’re in a lot of trouble, right?

ICYMI — Don’t just assume Trump will back Russia, says Polish foreign minister
by BILD’s MARION HORN and PAUL RONZHEIMER



KEYSTROKES

ELECTION MACHINE TROUBLE: Elections experts are calling on the U.S. to steer
countries away from using a South Korean company’s voting machines after they
caused widespread reporting issues in recent elections in Iraq and the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, our friends at Weekly Cyber report.

The U.S. does not provide funding to the company — Miru Systems — as part of its
efforts to promote free and fair elections around the world. But recent
incidents, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN writes, have prompted some experts and
observers to call on the U.S, and the U.S. Agency for International Development
in particular, to steer countries away from using Miru software.

“Rigorous review of commercial election technology and how it is procured is
urgently needed in every democracy. Vendors like Miru need to prove their
trustworthiness, and we are failing to demand that of them,” an official at a
democracy NGO supported by the U.S. government told Daniel.

Miru argues it cannot be blamed for misuse of its systems. “We only provide
devices that, when adequately used, provide expected results,” Miru said in a
statement. “Blaming Miru for the responsibilities of electoral management bodies
is like blaming the manufacturer of a knife for someone who gets injured by
improper use of this knife.”


JOIN 5/22 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF TAXATION: With Trump-era tax breaks set to
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the ability to revamp the tax code and with it reshape the landscape for
business and social policy. Join POLITICO on May 22 for an exploration of what
is at stake in the November elections with our panel dissecting the ways
presidential candidates and congressional leaders are proposing to reshape our
tax rates and incentives. REGISTER HERE.


THE COMPLEX

PIER PRESSURE: The Pentagon’s cost estimate to build a floating pier off the
coast of Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid is $320 million, Pentagon spokesperson
SABRINA SINGH told reporters on Monday, LARA SELIGMAN writes in.

The comments confirm Reuters’ report, which also revealed that the cost estimate
doubled from initial estimates earlier this year. U.S. military personnel began
construction on the temporary pier on Friday and expect to complete the project
by early May.

GOVERNORS UNITE AGAINST DOD: Nearly all U.S. governors oppose the Biden
administration’s push to move space units from the Air National Guard to the
Space Force, signaling widespread resistance to the plan outside of Washington,
our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!).

In March, Connor scooped that the Pentagon sent lawmakers a proposal to allow
the Air Force to transfer several hundred space missions in the Air National
Guard to the Space Force. State executives aired their “strong opposition” in a
letter released today by the National Governors Association, arguing the plan
undermines their roles as the heads of their state Guard troops.

Florida and Texas were the only states whose governors didn’t sign the missive,
which was sent to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. Governors of five U.S.
territories also signed on, bringing the total to 53 leaders.

RUTTE GETS A BOOST: Turkey is backing Dutch Prime Minister MARK RUTTE’s bid to
lead NATO, according to The Associated Press’ SUZAN FRASER. The move comes as a
major coup for the Dutch leader, seen by his colleagues as a “Trump whisperer”
suited for the possible challenge of leading the alliance during a second Trump
presidency.





ON THE HILL

FUTURE OF UKRAINE AID: Several conservative lawmakers bashed the Biden
administration after Zelenskyy said Ukraine is working with the U.S. on a
security agreement that would fix levels of assistance for the next decade.

That assistance would include “armed support, financial, political and joint
arms production,” Zelenskyy said in a statement on Sunday. After the monthslong
battle over Ukraine aid in Congress, several lawmakers weren’t thrilled to hear
about the long-term plan.

“The DC Cartel wants to lock us into ten more years of bankrolling one of the
most corrupt nations in the world. No more,” Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz) said in a
post on X. Other lawmakers who spoke out include Sen. ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kansas),
Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah), Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) and Rep. KEITH SELF
(R-Texas).

But Zelenskyy’s note about the security agreement actually stems from a G7 joint
declaration of support announced in July 2023. The U.S. will not commit to any
dollar amount to the agreement, and negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine
are ongoing.



BROADSIDES

CURBING KREMLIN CRYPTO: Washington needs to do more to stop Russia from using
cryptocurrency to evade sanctions, Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and Marshall
wrote in a letter today.

In early April, The Wall Street Journal wrote about how the stablecoin Tether
has become “indispensable” to Russia’s military industrial base. While Treasury
has sanctioned Moscow’s main trading platforms, the Kremlin has been able to
skirt the sanctions using cryptocurrency and pay China millions in crypto to
produce high-tech weapons.

“The national security threat posed by cryptocurrency requires a commensurate
response by our country’s defense community,” the senators wrote in a letter to
top administration officials, including DefSec Austin, Treasury Secretary JANET
YELLEN and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN.



TRANSITIONS

— Scottish leader HUMZA YOUSAF resigned today ahead of an expected no-confidence
vote. Our European colleagues made a list of who could replace him.

— CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN will be sworn in as chair of the U.S. African Development
Foundation on Tuesday. Moseley Braun was the first Black woman elected to the
Senate and served as ambassador to Samoa and New Zealand during the Clinton
administration.

— RAND has named MIYEON OH as their new Korea policy chair. She previously led
Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the
Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center.



WHAT TO READ

— MACKENZIE EAGLEN, American Enterprise Institute: Keeping up with the pacing
threat: unveiling the true size of Beijing’s military spending

— MAX LAMPARTH and JACQUELYN SCHNEIDER, Foreign Affairs: Why the military can’t
trust AI

— DMITRI ALPEROVITCH, The Washington Post: How the right U.S. chip strategy can
keep Taiwan free



TOMORROW TODAY

— Center for a New American Security, 9 a.m.: Beyond China’s black box: trends
shaping China’s foreign and security policy decision-making under Xi Jinping

— Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Northern Europe, NATO, and the war in Ukraine

— United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: The trajectory of India-Russia
ties amid the war in Ukraine

— Congressional-Executive Commission on China, 10 a.m.: Factories and fraud in
the PRC: how human rights violations make reliable audits impossible

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Roundtable - Americans detained
abroad

— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of defense FY2025 budget
request

— House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: FY2025 request for the
national guard and reserves forces

— Senate Finance Committee, 10 a.m.: Hacking America’s health care: assessing
the Change healthcare cyber attack and what’s next

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Strengthening U.S.
critical minerals security

— National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 11 a.m.: A U.S.-Yemen case study in
safeguarding antiquities and cultural heritage amidst conflict

— Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International
Studies, 1 p.m.: “Bringing peace to a troubled world,” focusing on “current
challenges of war, global food insecurity, and conflict management”

— Washington Post Live, 2 p.m.: A book discussion on “World on the Brink: How
America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century”

— Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control, 2:30 p.m.: Chinese money
laundering organizations: cleaning cartel cash

— Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, the Pacific and International
Cybersecurity Policy Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: U.S. policy on Taiwan

— House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee, 3 p.m.: FY2025 budget request for
military readiness

— Politics and Prose Bookstore, 7 p.m.: A book discussion on “World on the
Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century”

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose edits are bad for the United States.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who fixes all her mistakes.


A message from Lockheed Martin:

F-35: The World’s Most Advanced Fighter

The F-35 is the most advanced, connected fighter aircraft in the world –
unmatched 5th Generation capabilities for the U.S. and allies around the globe.
Learn more.


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