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The Russian Winter-Spring 2024 Offensive Operation on the Kharkiv-Luhansk Axis







By Riley Bailey and Frederick W. Kagan with Nicole Wolkov and Christina Harward

The Kremlin's Occupation Playbook: Coerced Russification and Ethnic Cleansing in
Occupied Ukraine

 

By Karolina Hird

Fact Sheet: US Assistance to Ukraine

 

This fact sheet delineates the distinctions between claims and verifiable facts
regarding United States military assistance to Ukraine.

The High Price of Losing Ukraine

 

By Frederick W. Kagan, Kateryna Stepanenko, Mitchell Belcher, Noel Mikkelsen,
and Thomas Bergeron

The High Price of Losing Ukraine: Part 2

 

By Nataliya Bugayova

12345

LATEST FROM ISW


DENYING RUSSIA’S ONLY STRATEGY FOR SUCCESS

Mar 26, 2024 - ISW Press

The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian
information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy
and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the
sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to
Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate. The Kremlin needs
the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that
Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his
ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself.

 


 * Read more about Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 26, 2024

Mar 26, 2024 - ISW Press

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that the Crocus City Hall
attackers originally fled toward Belarus not Ukraine, directly undermining the
Kremlin narrative on Ukraine’s involvement, possibly to head off questions about
why the attackers headed toward Belarus in the first place. During a visit to
Belarus’ northwestern Ashmyany raion on March 26, Lukashenko reported that the
Crocus City Hall attackers may have been planning to escape Russia’s Bryansk
Oblast to Belarus, but that Belarus introduced a heightened security regime that
forced the attackers to change course towards the Russia-Ukraine border.
Lukashenko stated that the attackers “couldn’t enter Belarus” and praised high
levels of cooperation between Russian and Belarusian special services for
leading to the attackers’ arrests.

 


 * Read more about Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26, 2024


IRAN UPDATE, MARCH 25, 2024

Mar 25, 2024 - ISW Press

Shin Bet announced on March 25 that the IDF seized a “significant amount of
advanced arms from Iran” that Iran had smuggled into the West Bank to support
Palestinian militia attacks targeting Israel. The captured arms included 83
small arms, five anti-tank mines, four grenade launchers, 15 RPGs, and 25
kilograms of plastic explosives. Shin Bet also said that a Fatah official based
in Lebanon and affiliated with Lebanese Hezbollah and the IRGC assisted the
Iranian effort to smuggle arms into the West Bank, but Shin Bet did not provide
further details. Shin Bet added that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps (IRGC) Quds Force organized the effort to smuggle Iranian weapons into the
West Bank, which is consistent with previous Western reporting.

 


 * Read more about Iran Update, March 25, 2024


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 25, 2024

Mar 25, 2024 - ISW Press

The March 22 Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall
is a notable Russian intelligence and law enforcement failure, and explaining
currently available open-source evidence does not require any wider and more
complicated conspiracy theory either within or against the Russian state.
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed during an address on March 25 that
“radical Islamists” committed the attack, but immediately and baselessly accused
the United States of trying to cover the “Ukrainian trace” of the attack,
directly accusing Ukraine of being the “customer” of the attack. ISW continues
to assess that the attack itself, as well as the claim pattern following the
attack, is highly consistent with the way IS conducts and claims such incidents
and has observed no evidence that Ukraine was involved in the attack.

 


 * Read more about Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2024


IRAN UPDATE, MARCH 24, 2024

Mar 24, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel Defense Forces engaged Palestinian militias north of Gaza City. Local
Palestinian sources reported that Israeli armor entered eastern Beit Hanoun on
March 23. The IDF acknowledged on March 24 that its forces are operating in Beit
Hanoun, saying that the IDF Air Force conducted an airstrike on a target in Beit
Hanoun that “posed a threat to the forces operating in the area.”

 


 * Read more about Iran Update, March 24, 2024


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 24, 2024

Mar 24, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces struck a Black Sea Fleet communications center in occupied
Sevastopol, Crimea, and reportedly struck an oil depot and at least partially
damaged two BSF landing ships on the night of March 23.

 


 * Read more about Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2024


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Fact Sheet: US Assistance to UKR

Fact Sheet: The Kremlin's Occupation Playbook


FEATURED REPORT

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Aug 15, 2022




This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late
February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events
related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.


ISRAEL–HAMAS WAR (IRAN UPDATES)




CHINA–TAIWAN WEEKLY UPDATES




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