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THE FED’S PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE EASED IN OCTOBER

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THE FED’S PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE EASED IN OCTOBER

November 30, 2023
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A closely watched measure of inflation showed continued signs of fading in
October, encouraging news for the Federal Reserve as officials try to gauge
whether they need to take further action in order to fully stamp out rapid price
increases.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which the Fed cites
when it says it aims for 2 percent inflation on average over time, climbed by 3
percent in the year through October. That was down from 3.4 percent the previous
month, and was in line with economist forecasts. Compared to the previous month,
prices were flat.

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After stripping out volatile food and fuel prices for a clearer look at
underlying price pressures, inflation climbed by 3.5 percent over the year. That
was down from 3.7 percent previously.

The latest evidence that price increases are slowing came alongside other
positive news for Fed officials: Consumers are spending less robustly. A measure
of personal consumption climbing by 0.2 percent from September. That marked a
slight slowdown from the previous month.

The report could offer important insights to Fed officials as they prepare for
their final meeting of 2023, which takes place Dec. 12-13. While investors
widely expect policymakers to leave borrowing costs unchanged at the meeting,
central bankers will release a fresh set of economic projections that could hint
at their plans for future policy. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, will also
deliver a news conference.

Policymakers have been closely watching how both inflation and consumer spending
shape up as they assess how to proceed. They have already raised interest rates
to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in more than two decades.
Given that, many officials have signaled that it may be time to stop and watch
how policy plays out.

But the economy has been more resilient to those higher borrowing costs than
many had expected, which is keeping some at the Fed wary. If strong demand gives
companies the ability to keep raising prices without losing customers, it could
be harder to fully vanquish inflation.

“I am encouraged by the early signs of moderating economic activity in the
fourth quarter based on the data in hand,” Christopher Waller, one Fed governor,
said this week. Still, he added that “inflation is still too high, and it is too
early to say whether the slowing we are seeing will be sustained.”

The post The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Eased in October appeared first
on New York Times.

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