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‘JENRICK WINNING, KEMI HAS STAR QUALITY’: INSIDE THE CUT-THROAT TORY LEADER RACE

Big Read


ACCORDING TO ONE CAMPAIGN SOURCE, TORY PARTY CONFERENCE PROVIDES A “BIG, RICH
SPACE” BOTH FOR TRIUMPH AND DISASTER FOR ALL THE CANDIDATES.

The 4 remaining Conservative Leadership contenders, from left, Robert Jenrick,
James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat (Photos: Carl Court/Leon
Neal/Getty)
By Kitty Donaldson
Chief Political Commentator
September 27, 2024 3:00 pm(Updated 6:15 pm)


At Brook’s in London’s maze of private members’ clubs, Conservative leadership
frontrunner Robert Jenrick addressed former Conservative MPs on Tuesday. The
event in St James marked his 100th address to Tories after a summer of
zigzagging up and down the country talking to grassroots associations.

“Those who stick with the party in these difficult days will be back in
parliament in five years,” Jenrick told the group who dined on blade of beef and
borsht. “As good as this dining club is, much like the Reform vote, I want to
shrink it.”

It was a neat line to a party feeling down about its prospects. “Rob was very
good on Tuesday night. I’m not a fan, but even I can see why he’s in first
place,” according to a source who attended the dinner.




Barring disaster, the former immigration minister is expected to become one of
the two Tory MPs who will be presented to members for a final vote in October.
But first the four runners and riders need to get through Tory Conference in
Birmingham without mishap. According to one campaign source, the four-day
gathering provides a “big, rich space” both for triumph and disaster with
national attention back on the party which has spent the summer licking its
wounds after a devastating defeat.

Jenrick needs to consolidate and build his support among MP against the other
three candidates vying for second place and a chance to convince the party’s
100,000-strong membership who have the final say in the race. Kemi Badenoch –
the initial frontrunner who is marginally behind in support from MPs – is
snapping at his heels as she vies to become leader of the opposition.

While Jenrick has tacked to the right during his years in Westminster,
supporters of Badenoch say her convictions came early on. But it’s all to play
for at the Tory conference as Badenoch seeks to show MPs she should be the
candidate to face him in the run-off. Former Home Secretary James Cleverly and
former Immigration minister Tom Tugendhat are tied in third place for support
among MPs. All four campaigns are keen to point out evidence which shows they
are most highly rated by the party’s grassroots.

In public Jenrick’s camp is not talking up victory. “There is a long way to go,
no one knows who we will be up against in the final two and we aren’t taking
anything for granted,” a spokesman said. Among many appearances, the high point
of Jenrick’s conference will likely be when receives a warm reception at the
Conservative Friends of Israel rally. While not Jewish himself, his wife is the
granddaughter of Holocaust survivors and the couple’s three daughters are being
brought up in the Jewish faith. This week he was photographed wearing a hoodie
emblazoned with the words “Hamas Are Terrorists” while jogging in London.


Robert Jenrick speaking at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event at the
QEII Centre in Westminster, London. Aaron Chown/PA Wire

Even so, traditional Tories are weighing up whether Jenrick’s political journey
from centrist to strident right-winger has been a genuine Damascene conversion
or a ruse to get him elected by the party membership. One Conservative member in
a Reform-voting area reported that their local association, who might have been
expected to favour Badenoch or Jenrick instead favoured Tugendhat. “We asked
everyone, and I was surprised by who they said they would vote for,” the Tory
said. “And when I asked why people said ‘We just don’t believe that Rob believes
what he says’. That leaves the race wide open. I can imagine a world in which
the final two are any combination of the current four.”

In multiple conversations Tory sources draw comparisons with the 2005 contest
when frontrunner David Davis was expected to win the contest only to be pipped
to the post by a fresh-faced David Cameron. Davis, now 75, suffered a series of
missteps during that party’s annual conference including a newspaper interview
with wife Doreen in which she revealed the couple went for days without
speaking. He also appeared old-fashioned when his young female supporters wore
tight t-shirts with “It’s DD for me” emblazoned across their chests. His
lacklustre speech contrasted badly with his younger rival who spoke without
notes.

“Everyone is waiting for the David Cameron moment,” a campaign source said.
“There is a lot riding on this conference for second place,” another party
source said, adding, “Look at DD – you can screw it up in under a week.”

In Birmingham the four candidates will hardly have time to take a breath amid a
whirl of fringe receptions, rallies and question-and-answer sessions on the main
stage ahead of keynote speeches on Wednesday. “Look and see how they interact
with those rooms,” one campaign source said.

Former business secretary Badenoch will appear on Sunday’s political talk shows
and attend an event organised by the website ConHome event to promote her
campaign to renew the party and participate in a Spectator magazine interview.
She is seen as a marmite character, whose straight-talking blunt style is
appreciated by some, but also riles up others.

“There was a concerted stop-Kemi campaign at the start, but it’s fizzled out
because it’s not needed any more,” one Tory said. “Rob is clearly winning.”

Evidence is also emerging of a backlash at some how male colleagues are treating
her, with one women’s group producing a T-shirt in the suffragette violet, white
and green colours sporting a picture of Badenoch and the slogan “Be More Kemi.”
Badenoch is also expected to be the star turn at the Women2Win Tory female
networking event in Birmingham.



“She has been getting amazing support around the country,” one ally said. “She
has the star quality. She can cut through and take the fight to Labour and get
112 Tory MPs noticed. If you want a Conservative government, Kemi is the right
choice.”

Also hustling for second place is affable former Home Secretary James Cleverly,
the most experienced candidate, also fighting a rearguard action against
colleagues who are talking down his prospects.

“Cleverly is expected to get knocked out at the next round,” one MP said,
voicing a widely held view among Tories. But this was rejected by an ally. “I
don’t buy that for a second,” the source said. “We have had a good campaign so
far. he always gets a good reception with members, that will help swing MPs in
his direction It’s also quite convenient for other campaigns to want to talk
James down when the polling shows he will beat everyone in the final two.”

Kemi Badenoch launches her Conservative Party leadership campaign (Photo: Leon
Neal/Getty)

Some partisan Tories are cheered by how gloomy the Labour Party appeared last
week at its annual conference in Liverpool. Others have taken a more nuanced
view, accepting the Conservatives deserved to lose power and turning their
attention to rebuilding.

Step forward another candidate, Tom Tugendhat, who is commandeering the ConHome
tent for a “TomHome” rally on Sunday evening. Allies of the former security
minister – who has around 60 supporters accompanying him to the conference –
think he can turn the party around the quickest and challenge Prime Minister Sir
Keir Starmer at the next election. They also think he could beat Jenrick in a
race with the membership because the more the grassroots see him, the more they
like him.

A source close to Tugendhat said the Labour Conference in Liverpool had given
the Tories two valuable lessons; one, that Starmer managed to turn his party
around from its electoral nadir just five years ago to win in July and two, that
Labour is not guaranteed to win the next general election.

“They’ve put unions above vulnerable people: two terms won’t be guaranteed so we
need to pick the right person now.” The party membership “will be looking for
policy but they will also be looking for vibes; who is in the role of prime
minister-in-waiting? Tom is the person with the integrity to be the
PM-in-waiting and restore faith in politics,” the source said.



On Wednesday the four contenders will take turns to make a 20-minute pitch from
the main stage. Tugendhat will go first then Cleverly, Jenrick and Badenoch.
“People will remember the first and the last pitch,” one campaign source said.
“That favours Tom and Kemi, they won’t remember the middle two.”

“You could equally say Tom is the warm-up act,” another campaign source joked.

There will also be a merchandising battle. Sweet-toothed Tugendhat will use
patriotic red, white and blue coloured M&Ms emblazoned with his face, while
Cleverly plans coffee cups branded “Caffeinate with Cleverly,” alongside water
bottles, tea towels and umbrellas. Badenoch fans can buy blue and white
t-shirts, caps, stickers and lanyards which say Vote Kemi for Renewal. Meanwhile
the conference won’t be as devoid of business interest as some in the party had
feared because of Sunak’s decision to call the election early. “We have a lot of
the sponsors there because they booked in thinking the election wouldn’t be
until later in October,” they said.


READ NEXT

Henry Hill



IT’S KEMI BADENOCH V ROBERT JENRICK IN THIS UGLY TORY LEADERSHIP CONTEST

Read More

Meanwhile there has been a lot of “whingeing” at how Conservative Campaign
Headquarters (CCHQ) have handled the contest both from the campaigns and the
party’s membership. “We are fed up with the artificial cap on speeches on
Wednesday; twenty minutes is not enough to for a candidate to set out their
stall and make an argument,” one campaign source said. Another campaign staffer
said CCHQ had handed the candidates a list of sanctioned broadcast interviews,
refusing to let them organise their own.

The criticism flows both ways. The failure of leadership candidates to show up
at some of the many hustings for Tory members around the country prompted
complaints to the central party. One campaign source complained “everyone is
knackered.” A senior party source was unsympathetic. “Yes, candidates have a
packed schedule but if they don’t turn up to some of the meetings then there
will be party members they don’t see, so it’s up to them,” they said.

More worrying for any future leader is how the contest has been marred by
briefing wars between some of the campaigns. The attacks have come even as party
elders warned the candidates not to indulge in “blue-on-blue” action. One senior
Conservative told i that the new leader would have a “difficult job” keeping
discipline. “I think the last few years showed us that the party is basically
ungovernable,” the source said.

Once the drama is over in Birmingham, Tory MPs return to London for the final
run-offs. In the last round of voting by MPs earlier this month, Jenrick
finished top with 33 votes, with Badenoch second on 28 votes. Cleverly and
Tugendhat got 21 votes each, leaving former candidate Mel Stride with the fewest
votes on 16.  MPs overseeing the contest are also eyeing a potential headache if
Stride’s vote splits evenly and requires another ballot to whittle down to the
final two. Once the pair is selected, the party plans an online hustings and a
televised debate, probably on GB News.

But that’s a fight for another day. “Right now, it’s Rob’s to lose but that
doesn’t mean he has it in the bag,” one Tory said in a message to i, using the
wide eyes emoji to show that conference makes it all to play for.




TOPICS

 * Conservative Leadership Contest
 * Conservative Party
 * Kemi Badenoch


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