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An Important Shift in Oil Prices

Mar 18, 2024 | Stansberry Digest | Corey McLaughlin

Trends for oil are shifting... A few inflationary catalysts... Oil is up 20%
since mid-December... Thanks, Houthis... A 'golden cross' sighting in energy
stocks... A few picks from our Stansberry's Investment Advisory team...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


THE TRADE WINDS FOR OIL ARE CHANGING...

If you've been looking for clues that high(er) inflation might persist for
longer than Mr. Market appears to believe, the International Energy Agency
("IEA") recently dropped a big hint.

The international organization's 31 member nations, including the U.S., and 13
association countries account for 75% of global oil demand... and the group
purports to coordinate oil reserve policy among them.

It also makes forecasts... And like a global economic football game, the OPEC
cartel – which controls 40% of global oil supply and 80% of reserves – has
frequently disputed them.

The two "teams" date back to the aftermath of the 1973 oil crisis... when the
IEA was created. The U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan, Spain, and Italy were among the
founding members.

OPEC has a longer history, dating to 1960 when five nations joined oil forces:
Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. The group now has a dozen
members. In 2016, these unapologetic oil price fixers joined up with 10 more
nations, including Russia, known as OPEC+.

Pick your side... or none at all.

But today, I (Corey McLaughlin) am focusing on the oil-consuming nations...
That's where investors appear to be paying attention, too. And big, global
trends could push up the price of oil... energy costs in general... and, in
turn, inflation.

The price of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") crude oil – the U.S. benchmark – is
trading at a four-month high of nearly $83 per barrel... It's the same story for
Brent crude, the international standard, which now trades near $87 per barrel.

Both are up about 2% in the past day and roughly 20% since mid-December.


INFLATIONARY CATALYSTS...

Last Thursday, the IEA predicted a "tighter" oil market in 2024. It raised its
view on oil-demand growth for this year, tied to expectations for accelerating
economic activity. At the same time, it cut its supply forecast as a result of
the continued OPEC+ supply-cut policy and disruptions related to the war in the
Middle East.

As global news service Reuters reported...

> The IEA raised its view on 2024 oil demand growth for a fourth time since
> November as Houthi attacks disrupt Red Sea shipping but warned that "the
> global economic slowdown acts as an additional headwind to oil use."
> 
> The energy watchdog forecast demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day
> in 2024, up 110,000 bpd from last month, but still lower than growth of 2.3
> million bpd last year.
> 
> The IEA also cut its 2024 supply forecast and now expects oil supply to rise
> by 800,000 bpd to 102.9 million bpd this year.

Add it up and the IEA report predicted a global oil deficit in 2024... "a
complete flip from its position six months ago," as our colleague Sean Michael
Cummings wrote today in the free DailyWealth newsletter.

Some analysts are attributing the most recent move to recent Ukrainian attacks
on Russian refiners. That's part of it, but it's all happening within a global
supply-demand picture that has already been shifting toward higher prices.


THESE SHIFTS AREN'T ENTIRELY SURPRISING...

Almost a year ago, in an April 2023 Digest, we wrote about how the "oil cartel
is at again." Several large OPEC+ countries and others had announced an
unexpected cut in daily crude-oil production that was intended to last through
the end of the year... as they sought to goose the price of a commodity that
they heavily rely on for income.

That story hasn't changed. In fact, as Sean wrote today in DailyWealth...

> Saudi Arabia and its allies – known as OPEC+ – issued an announcement shortly
> after the IEA made its projection. The nations said they would cut oil
> production by about 2 million barrels a day starting in January 2024.
> 
> The change was supposed to be temporary. But this month, OPEC+ announced it
> would keep the cuts going through the second half of the year.
> 
> Now, the IEA believes the measure won't stop until the end of 2024 at the
> earliest.

And in our first Digest of 2024, we issued a "Red Sea Alert"... We talked about
the Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen disrupting one of the world's
largest shipping channels – and how it could spike prices and raise questions
about future global oil supply.

As we wrote...

> The Houthis have been fighting a civil war with the Yemeni government for
> years... But now they've also begun attacking commercial freight ships in the
> neighboring Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in support of the Hamas group fighting
> Israel in the Gaza Strip.

This was notable because...

> Roughly 10% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas moved by ship goes
> through the area, mostly headed to Europe. As Stansberry Research analysts
> Brian Tycangco and Bill McGilton wrote in the latest issue of their Commodity
> Supercycles newsletter, that includes nearly 5 million barrels of oil per day
> through these waterways... and more nearby. Here's a graphic they shared...

Brian and Bill explained the dangers of these "chokepoints," along with the
(recent) history of conflict in the Red Sea with the Iranian-backed Houthis,
Saudi Arabia, etc. And they noted...

> Cutting off even one of these chokepoints would potentially knock off more oil
> from the world market than has ever been done since the Arab oil embargo in
> 1973. That crisis sent oil prices quadrupling in less than a year.

We're not quite there (yet), but oil prices are rising.


THE RECENT PRICE ACTION IS NOTABLE...

Again, the prices of WTI and Brent crude are up roughly 20% since mid-December.
That's when the Houthi attacks against tankers in the Red Sea ramped up, major
shipping companies announced re-routing, and the U.S. and a few other nations
started patrolling these international waterways for protection.

At the same time, expectations for interest-rate cuts have given investors
thoughts of accelerating economic growth, which should lead to more demand for
oil and other energy sources... Yet global supply questions persist as OPEC, led
by Saudi Arabia, keeps suggesting "voluntary" supply cuts to its members.

Here we're getting higher prices. Of course, higher oil prices mean higher
inflation...

First of all, that's tough for consumers.

But secondly, higher prices could throw a curveball into market expectations for
things like Federal Reserve policy, which will be a big point of discussion this
week with the central bank's next meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Perhaps Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say that "volatile" food and energy prices
aren't as important for the Fed's policy calculus – and that the central bank
will stay the course with its ideas for cutting rates later this year.

But I suspect there's a chance Powell might clarify, or edit, what he said
earlier this month during congressional testimony when he said the Fed "can and
will" cut rates in 2024. That's a big promise.

A stance of "higher for longer" when it comes to interest rates – or even the
consideration of it – could surprise a lot of people when a dominant market
narrative since December has been about when the Fed's going to cut. At the same
time, a shift to "tighter" policy thinking could weigh on expectations for
economic growth, and oil demand, ahead.

Stay tuned.


A 'GOLDEN CROSS' SIGHTING...

Here's some better news. As Sean wrote in DailyWealth today, higher oil prices
are also good news for energy investors and businesses, given the opportunity
for higher margins. Recently, the sector has been soaring.

In fact, one indicator suggests the rally is just getting started. That's
because energy stocks just completed what's called a "golden cross." That's
technical-speak for when an asset's 50-day moving average (50-DMA) rises above
its longer-term 200-day moving average (200-DMA).

It's not a guarantee of higher prices ahead, but it's usually a bullish signal
when it happens. (It's the opposite of the bearish "death cross" signal – when
an asset's 50-DMA drops below its 200-DMA.) As Sean wrote this morning, using
Friday's closing data...

> We can see this move beginning in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
> today. This exchange-traded fund holds a wide range of oil companies, so we
> can use it to track the performance of the broader energy sector.
> 
> XLE's new golden cross is just starting to form. Take a look...
> 
> 
> 
> After a brief dip to start the year, XLE's short-term average is now climbing
> back above its long-term average.

Now, today, energy stocks were slightly down after three straight strong days to
end last week, so this "golden cross" didn't hold. XLE's 200-DMA is above its
50-DMA as of today's close. Still, that could easily flip again this week if the
bullish trend for energy stocks since the middle of January continues. (This is
why they're called moving averages.) As Sean continued...

> Again, that's a big signal for higher prices – especially when the long-term
> trend is up. Check out XLE's history of golden crosses...
> 
> 
> 
> As you can see, when the 50-DMA overtakes the 200-DMA, it tends to signal a
> jump in energy stocks... particularly when the 200-DMA is in an uptrend. And
> that's exactly the pattern we're seeing in XLE today.
> 
> Energy expectations are shifting from oversupply to undersupply. And now that
> we have a golden cross in XLE, this new rally should get underway in earnest.

So, keep an eye on energy stocks... to see if they continue higher and the
short-term trend overtakes the longer-term one for good.

We said this before back in late 2020 and 2021 – when it appeared to us that
higher inflation for longer was going to be a big issue that most in the
mainstream weren't talking about... And we'll say it again now: Owning stocks in
this sector can provide inflation protection – plus the potential for lucrative
gains in the right companies.


A FEW BUY RECOMMENDATIONS RIGHT NOW...

Our colleagues recommend energy stocks across many of our publications,
including our flagship Stansberry's Investment Advisory...

In fact, the team behind the Investment Advisory just published a series of
special reports for subscribers last week recommending a few such companies,
even before the latest report from the IEA... That's because of the bullish
trends they see for the sector over the long run.

One company has a huge stake in the energy sector and is one of editor Whitney
Tilson's favorites. (Maybe you can guess it.)

And as Stansberry Research senior analyst Alan Gula wrote, a few others have a
business model that is the best way to profit from the energy bull market...

> Almost all energy stocks rise during booms. A rising tide lifts all boats, as
> they say.
> 
> However, most investors are unaware of how to maximize their gains during
> energy booms. You shouldn't indiscriminately buy oil and gas stocks. Nor
> should you automatically buy the biggest, best-known energy companies.

He shared three lesser-known companies to buy instead.

Alan also published a separate report about a leader in a revolution currently
unfolding in the oil and gas industry that generates tons of cash, and whose
sales "are only heading higher," Alan wrote, given that energy prices are likely
headed in the same direction.

Existing Investment Advisory subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can
find all the details here. And if you don't subscribe to our flagship
publication already, you really should. Click here for more information on how
to get started today for just $49.

That's an incredible value, even for just the recommendations we've mentioned
today. Plus, you'll get a year's worth of issues and future recommendations,
access to the entire Investment Advisory model portfolio, special reports
library, and more.

And you can take the next 30 days to see if you like the newsletter, risk-free.
If you decide it isn't for you, contact our Baltimore-based member-services team
within that time frame and we'll refund you every penny paid, no questions
asked. We think you'll be a fan, though.

THE 1970S ALL OVER AGAIN?

In this week's Diamond's Edge, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond takes a look
at gold, silver, and the U.S. dollar heading into a key Fed meeting later this
week... and why today's price action in precious metals is similar to the
high-inflation mid-1970s...




As a Digest reader, you get the first look at Greg's new Diamond's Edge video
each Monday.

For more free videos, check out our YouTube page... And, if you're interested in
more research and analysis from Greg, click here for information on how to get
started with a subscription to his Ten Stock Trader advisory.

New 52-week highs (as of 3/15/24): ABB (ABBNY), American Financial (AFG), A.O.
Smith (AOS), Ascot Resources (AOTVF), Atkore (ATKR), Aya Gold & Silver (AYASF),
AutoZone (AZO), Donaldson (DCI), Enerplus (ERF), Diamondback Energy (FANG), GEO
Group (GEO), W.W. Grainger (GWW), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Phillips 66 (PSX),
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Stellantis (STLA), and Textron (TXT).

In today's mailbag, feedback on Dave Lashmet's Friday Digest... and more
feedback for Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig, who crossed the milestone of 200
consecutive winning trades in his Retirement Trader advisory on Friday... Do you
have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at
feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Read your overweight thing. There is also OA . No products to consume, no
costs, get a strong support group. It has helped me for years, but a lot of
people would rather take a pill." – Subscriber D.I.

"Doc and team, I started my relationship with Stansberry with a subscription to
Retirement Millionaire. That led to a few other newsletters and eventually an
Alliance membership a few years ago. Over that time, I have learned a lot about
many types of investing, the most profitable of which has been options trading.
I follow many of the trades and also use covered calls to generate cash or to
exit a position at a price of my choosing. I also like to use puts as a way to
hedge a buy, either getting the lower net price or picking up income while I
wait for the market to move toward me and not away from me.

"I can't thank you enough for the education, including the conversations at the
Stansberry Conference and Alliance Meeting. I look forward to seeing you again
in October." – Stansberry Alliance member Dave P.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
March 18, 2024



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LATEST ARTICLES

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Forecasters Got Oil Exactly Wrong

Mar 18, 2024

Prepare for higher energy costs in 2024... Oil supply looked plentiful last
year. Back in November, the International Energy Agency ("IEA") predicted that
demand would ease. It expected volatility to calm down as life "post-COVID"
returned to normal... But the universe had other plans. Saudi Arabia and its
allies – known as OPEC+ – issued an announcement shortly after the IEA made its
projection. The nations said they would cut oil production by about 2 million
barrels a day starting in January 2024. The change was supposed to be temporary.
But this month, OPEC+ announced it would keep the cuts going through the second
half of the year. Now, the IEA believes the measure won't stop until the end of
2024 at the earliest. When you add in the shipping disruptions from the Houthis
in the Red Sea, supply is getting pinched. Last Thursday, the IEA issued a new
report that predicted a global oil deficit in 2024... a complete flip from its
position six months ago. This new outlook points to higher energy costs for
consumers. But investors should take note, too. Today, the whole energy sector
is rallying. And one technical signal suggests that it will keep soaring higher
from here... Higher oil prices are bad for consumers... But they're good news
for energy investors. Today, the sector is soaring. And one indicator suggests
the rally is just getting started. That's because energy stocks just completed
what's called a "golden cross"... A golden cross appears when an asset's
short-term price average overtakes its long-term price average. It's usually a
bullish signal. To see this for energy stocks, we'll use the 50-day moving
average (50-DMA) and the 200-day moving average (200-DMA)... Both of these
indicators smooth out the noise of daily price moves to create longer-term price
averages. The 50-DMA is an average of the past 50 days of prices, and it acts as
a short-term trend line... while the 200-DMA takes the average of the past 200
days for a longer-term trend line. When the 50-DMA rises past the 200-DMA, it
generates the golden cross. We can see this move beginning in the Energy Select
Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) today. This exchange-traded fund holds a wide range of
oil companies, so we can use it to track the performance of the broader energy
sector. XLE's new golden cross is just starting to form. Take a look... After a
brief dip to start the year, XLE's short-term average is now climbing back above
its long-term average. Again, that's a big signal for higher prices – especially
when the long-term trend is up. Check out XLE's history of golden crosses... As
you can see, when the 50-DMA overtakes the 200-DMA, it tends to signal a jump in
energy stocks... particularly when the 200-DMA is in an uptrend. And that's
exactly the pattern we're seeing in XLE today. Energy expectations are shifting
from oversupply to undersupply. And now that we have a golden cross in XLE, this
new rally should get underway in earnest. Buying XLE is a great way to take
advantage of this setup. But that's not the only way to get a piece of the
action... Major oil companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) also stand
to benefit. If you don't hold energy stocks in your portfolio, I suggest
building a position now. As oil prices surge, the sector is likely to head much
higher from here. Good investing, Sean Michael Cummings Further Reading
"Bearishness is at the worst level on record for the soybean market," Brett
Eversole writes. Almost no one is paying attention to this commodity right now.
But once sentiment reverses, this overlooked market could present a solid buying
opportunity... Read more here. Gold has been hitting new highs recently.
Investors have been slow to take interest. According to history, though, now
isn't the time to ignore this precious metal. Its rally is only just getting
started... Learn more here. Market Notes HIGHS AND LOWS NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST
WEEK General Dynamics (GD)... "offense" contractorVisa (V)... payment-processing
giantJPMorgan Chase (JPM)... financial giantProgressive (PGR)... insuranceCigna
(CI)... health insuranceMicrosoft (MSFT)... tech giantAmazon (AMZN)...
online-retail kingeBay (EBAY)... online marketplaceProcter & Gamble (PG)...
consumer goodsColgate-Palmolive (CL)... household goodsChipotle Mexican Grill
(CMG)... tacos and burritosHilton Worldwide (HLT)... hotelsW.W. Grainger
(GWW)... industrial suppliesGeneral Electric (GE)... manufacturingTrane
Technologies (TT)... HVAC manufacturerWaste Management (WM)... trash and
recyclingO'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto partsPhillips 66 (PSX)... oil and
gasSouthern Copper (SCCO)... copper NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK Agilon Health
(AGL)... physician servicesConcentrix (CNXC)... customer-experience
solutionsIridium Communications (IRDM)... mobile-satellite serviceMP Materials
(MP)... rare earth mining

Keep reading...

Episode 353: Why Biotech Is an Excellent Contrarian Play Today

Mar 18, 2024

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Porter &
Co. analyst Erez Kalir. Erez's impeccable pedigree and deep experience in
biology, finance, and law make him an expert at finding the best businesses and
investing opportunities out there. He joins the podcast to explore the current
macroeconomic environment and all things biotech. Dan and Corey kick off the
show by discussing both bubbles and "anti-bubble" stocks. Dan mentions how the
S&P 500 Index's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, with data going
back to 1871, is currently in the top 1%. He even believes this is the biggest
mega-bubble in all of recorded history. As he says... I think right now the
world's pricing in a lot of growth that isn't going to happen. Next, Erez joins
the conversation and shares his financial philosophy. He talks about investing
legends who have influenced his investing style, the importance of avoiding
labels, and how successful investing is similar to using a Swiss Army knife.
Plus, Erez explains the yin and yang of macroeconomics versus security-specific
fundamentals and how there are extreme periods where one can entirely dominate
the other. He emphasizes... We are living through a deeply unusual economic
period in the history of the world, especially the economic history of the
United States... So I think it's very important to have a point of view about
the big picture and how it frames the investing world. After, Erez goes into
detail about biotech – the sector's history in the stock market, how it's shaped
by interest rates, and how you can find companies trading at an extreme discount
with negative enterprise value. He argues that not being able to time the
markets is merely a myth, and shares the seven factors he uses to evaluate
whether a biotech stock is worth buying. Speaking about the Federal Reserve's
influence, Erez notes... The biotech sector has never really had to live through
the type of interest-rate-hike cycle that the Powell Fed just put the U.S.
economy through. Lastly, Erez explains why the conditions are right for biotech
stocks today. He covers the sector being hated and how this gives savvy
investors a chance to break away from the herd and profit. Click here or on the
image below to start listening right now. (Additional past episodes are located
here.) The transcript will be on the website soon.

Listen to the episode



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