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EVALUATING THE CYBERWAR SET OFF BY RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE

Preparation and cooperation helped to mitigate the worst of the digital damage,
amid cyber sorties from all sides.
Fahmida Y. Rashid
Managing Editor, Features, Dark Reading
February 24, 2023
Source: Cloudflare
PDF


When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, much discussion ensued about how
the war would be both cyber and kinetic. A year later, the consensus seems to be
that while there was a lot of cyberattack activity, it wasn't as destructive as
many had feared. That was partly due to various governments and security
companies helping to identify and block attacks.



Between February 2022 and February 2023, an average of 10% of all online traffic
to Ukraine was mitigations of potential attacks, Cloudflare said in its analysis
of the Russian invasion's impact on theUkrainian Internet. Cloudflare protected
Ukrainian Web applications by filtering and monitoring HTTP traffic to block
malicious attacks, including distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks.

On Oct. 29, DDoS attack traffic constituted 39% of total traffic to Cloudflare's
Ukrainian customers.



The company shared a graph showing the daily percentage of application layer
traffic to Ukraine that Cloudflare mitigated as potential attacks using its Web
application firewall (WAF). In early March, 30% of all traffic was mitigated.
After a fairly quiet summer, attack activity ticked back up in early September,
during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in east and south Ukraine.



More specifically, 14% of total traffic from Ukraine was mitigated as potential
attacks, while 10% of total traffic to Ukraine was mitigated as potential
attacks in the past 12 months.

Mitigated application-layer threats blocked by Cloudflare's WAF were 105% higher
on Monday, Feb. 28, 2022 — four days after the invasion — compared with the
Monday before, Feb. 21, 2022. By March 8, that figure was 1,300%.


WHAT CAME OUT OF 'SHIELDS UP'

In anticipation of Russian cyberattacks against Ukrainian targets and against
organizations in countries allied with Ukraine, the US Cybersecurity and
Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) urged organizations to share information
that could help mitigate threats. "Every organization — large and small — must
be prepared to respond to disruptive cyber incidents," CISA said.

While sharing threat intelligence indubitably helped, the nature of the attacks
were also less sophisticated or destructive than feared.



Cisco Talos researchers have been monitoring critical infrastructure customers
to identify threats and remediate attacks. While there were a lot of concerns
about destructive malware, what Talos is seeing — and blocking — a lot of is
credentials harvesting, says Nick Biasini, Cisco Talos' head of outreach.
Attackers are not resorting to highly sophisticated tactics but rather are
employing mundane and recognizable methods to try to gain access to networks and
accounts, he says.


IMPACT ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Cloudflare's analysis of Ukraine's Internet traffic shows peaks and drops in
usage corresponding with military activity. For example, the city of Chernihiv
had a significant drop in traffic the first week of the war and residual traffic
by mid-March, with traffic picking up after the Russian retreat in early April,
Cloudflare noted. In the fall, Russian military units started targeting
Ukrainian critical infrastructure, causing widespread power outages and Internet
blackouts. Some of these strikes caused as much as a 50% decrease in Internet
traffic, according to Cloudflare's analysis. The disruptions often lasted only a
day or two, "further emphasizing the ongoing impact of the conflict on Ukraine's
infrastructure," Cloudflare noted.

"Throughout the rest of the year and into 2023, Ukraine has continued to face
intermittent Internet disruptions," Cloudflare also wrote.


RIPPLE EFFECTS AROUND THE WORLD

Security leaders in East Asia are carefully watching how the war between Russia
and Ukraine unfolds, as a lot of the geopolitical tensions and rhetoric are
similar to the long-simmering situation between China and Taiwan. Organizations
are "wondering what kind of disruptive attacks to expect" and how the war in
Ukraine could affect the Taiwan situation, says Mihoko Matsubara, chief
cybersecurity strategist at NTT. There has already been some activity, although
it has been of the "cyber nuisance" variety, rather than destruction, Matsubara
says. East Asian companies are already seeing DDoS attacks, defacements, and
disinformation campaigns, she says.

Matsubara was careful not to downplay the seriousness of the attacks, as they
are still disruptive to organizations. NTT has also seen some wiper attacks used
to disrupt humanitarian aid efforts, which may be a harbinger of activities to
come.


BAD ACTORS GET POLITICAL

Cybercriminals have been expressing their own opinions — and political
allegiances — about the war. For example, Coalition's latest "Cyber Threat
Index" report dug into attacks against databases exposed to the Internet.
Coalition observed a total 264,408 IP addresses running MongoDB instances in
2022, and 68,423 of them — or 26% — were compromised. Coalition found a handful
of compromised MongoDB servers where the attackers renamed the databases to
SLAVA_UKRAINI, or "Glory to Ukraine!"

"Threat actor activity is often shaped by fluctuations in economic conditions,"
noted the team from Kroll's Cyber Risk practice in the latest "Threat Landscape"
report. "Due to the continued market volatility across the globe and the ongoing
war on Ukraine, it is likely that the unstable circumstances in which attackers
thrive will persist in 2023."

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