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IS RUSSIA PREPARING TO INVADE UKRAINE? AND OTHER QUESTIONS

By Paul Kirby
BBC News

Published1 day ago
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Media caption,
Russian troop build-up: View from Ukraine front line

Are Russian forces getting ready for war in Ukraine? That is certainly the fear
among Western leaders and Ukraine itself.

It was only seven years ago that Russia seized part of Ukraine and backed
separatists who started a conflict in large areas of the east.

Russia says it has no such plans, so what is going on?


WHERE IS UKRAINE?

Ukraine shares borders with both the EU and Russia, but as a former Soviet
republic, it has deep social and cultural ties with Russia and Russian is widely
spoken there.

Russia has long resisted Ukraine's move towards European institutions, and its
key demand is that it never joins Nato or has Nato infrastructure on its soil.

When Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president in 2014, Russia seized and
then annexed the southern Crimean peninsula from Ukraine and Russian-backed
separatists captured large swathes of Ukraine's eastern territories known as the
Donbas.




IS THERE A REAL THREAT OF INVASION?

That conflict in the east continues to this day. Ukraine says Russia has sent
tanks, artillery and snipers to the front in rebel-held areas. But it is the
reported 90,000-plus Russian forces within reach of the Ukrainian border that
are of most concern.

There is no sense of an imminent threat or even that Russia's President Vladimir
Putin has decided on invasion. The Kremlin spokesman has urged everyone to keep
a "cool head". But Western intelligence services as well as Ukraine's think it
could happen some time in early 2022.



"The most likely time to reach readiness for escalation will be the end of
January," says Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

US intelligence says as many as 175,000 Russian troops could become involved as
early as January and CIA Director William Burns believes President Putin "is
putting the Russian military, the Russian security services in a place where
they could act in a pretty sweeping way".

Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Russian exercises in Crimea in March 2021 triggered widespread concerns in the
West

We've been here before, in April this year, but that time Russia shrugged off
smaller-scale troop movements as exercises and then pulled back. Ahead of a
two-hour video call between Mr Putin and US President Joe Biden on 7 December,
five Western leaders appealed to Moscow to "de-escalate tensions".


WHAT DOES RUSSIA SAY?

Russia initially described satellite photos showing troop build-ups in Crimea
and not far from eastern Ukraine as alarmist. But by early December, a
presidential aide insisted that "we have the right to move troops on our
territory", denying it amounted to an escalation.



Moscow countered by accusing Ukraine of building up half its army - some 125,000
people - in the east and alleging that Kyiv was planning to attack areas
controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Ukraine says that is nothing short of
"propaganda nonsense" to cover up for Russia's own plans.

Image source, EPA
Image caption,
Press handout showing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the front line
on 6 December

Russia's claim could become a justification for military action.

Vladimir Dzhabarov, number two on Russia's Federation Council's international
affairs committee, said in early December that half a million Ukrainians in the
rebel-held areas now had Russian passports. If rebel leaders appealed for
Russian help, "of course, we cannot abandon our compatriots", he said.


WHAT DOES RUSSIA WANT?

President Putin has warned the West not to cross Russia's "red lines" on
Ukraine.

So what are those red lines?

One of them is stopping Nato's expansion any further to the east, and deploying
weapons in neighbouring countries that could threaten Russia. There is
particular hostility to Ukraine's deployment of Turkish drones against
Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine and to Western military exercises in
the Black Sea.




Speaking at the end of November, Mr Putin hoped "common sense and responsibility
for their own countries and the global community will eventually prevail".

Back in July 2021, the Russian leader published a lengthy account on the Kremlin
website, detailing the two nations' history together and labelling Ukraine's
current leaders as running an "anti-Russian project". To those who sought to
turn Ukraine against Russia, "this way they will destroy their own country", he
said.

Russia is also frustrated that the 2015 Minsk peace deal aimed at halting the
Ukraine conflict is far from being fulfilled. There are still no arrangements
for independently monitored elections in the separatist regions. Russia denies
complaints from Ukraine and the West that it is part of the lingering conflict.


HOW IS NATO HELPING UKRAINE?

Nato's Western military alliance is defensive and its secretary general, Jens
Stoltenberg, has made clear that any military support is purely along those
lines.

The UK is set to help Ukraine build two naval bases, at Ochakiv on the Black Sea
and at Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov. US anti-tank Javelin missiles have also
been sent to Ukraine and two US Coast Guard patrol boats have been given to the
navy.

"It is up to Ukraine and 30 allies to decide when Ukraine is ready to join the
alliance," Mr Stoltenberg has said. Russia has "no veto, no right to interfere
in that process".


HOW FAR WILL THE WEST GO FOR UKRAINE?

The US has made clear it is committed to helping Ukraine defend its "sovereign
territory", but President Biden has indicated military action is not on the
table.

So even if the US refuses to recognise Russia's "red lines" on Ukraine joining
Nato or anything else, how far will it go to help Kyiv?

The biggest tool in the West's armoury appears to be sanctions. President Biden
has spoken of "very real costs" if Russia takes military action and US officials
are talking about strong economic measures and supporting the Ukrainian
military.

UK Foreign Office minister Vicky Ford has also said that British officials are
considering an extension of defensive support.

As for economic measures, the biggest tool could be threatening to disconnect
Russia's banking system from the international Swift payment system. That has
always been seen very much as a last resort.

Another key threat is to prevent the opening of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas
pipeline in Germany, and approval for that is currently being decided by
Germany's energy regulator.

There could also be measures targeting Russia's RDIF sovereign wealth fund or
restrictions on banks converting roubles into foreign currency.


RELATED TOPICS

 * Volodymyr Zelensky
 * Russia
 * Nato
 * Ukraine conflict
 * Vladimir Putin
 * Ukraine


MORE ON THIS STORY

 * Surviving the deadliest battle in Ukraine
   
   Published29 August 2019

 * Russian official warns of possible action in Ukraine
   
   Published9 April

 * Will a deal with Russia bring peace to Ukraine?
   
   Published10 December 2019

 * 'It was a shooting range': Ukraine's deadliest day
   
   Published29 August 2019

 * Russia eases passport rules for east Ukrainians
   
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